Electricity and Decarbonization U.S. Perspective

Transcription

1 Electricity and Decarbonization U.S. Perspective Geoffrey J. Blanford, Ph.D. Electric Power Research Institute Implications of Paris Second Workshop Trondheim, Norway 6 March 217

2 Electricity and Decarbonization Current trajectory of US generation Role of electric sector in economy-wide decarbonization Electrification Negative emissions 2

3 Annual TWh US Electric Sector Decarbonization: One Scenario 6 US-REGEN 2 (95% by 25, electric sector only) Coal Gas Hydro+ Nuclear Wind Solar New Gas-CCS Billion tons CO Reference (includes Clean Power Plan)

4 Annual TWh US Electric Sector Decarbonization: One Scenario 6 45 US-REGEN (95% by 25, electric sector only) Solar Assumes Clean Power Plan (CPP) through 23 (coal gas, growing renewables) CPP future is uncertain, but many drivers remain for these trends Coal Gas Hydro+ Nuclear Wind New Gas-CCS After 23, assumes least-cost compliance with a cap falling to near-zero levels by 25 Key features of decarbonization: Wind > Solar Gas remains a large part of mix Gas-CCS beats coal-ccs (and bio-ccs) Nuclear gradually expands Carbon price is $5/tCO2 until 25, when it spikes to $17/tCO2 (despite controlling for investment end-effects)

5 Direct Emissions (MtCO 2 ) Where s the carbon in the US economy? Transportation Buildings Industry [Other]

6 Direct Emissions (MtCO 2 ) Energy Consumption (quads) US Direct CO 2 emissions + Fossil Fuel Consumption 2 16 CO 2 Gas Petroleum Coal Transportation Buildings Industry [Other]

7 Direct Emissions (MtCO 2 ) Energy Consumption (quads) US Direct CO 2 emissions + All Fuel Consumption 2 CO Gas 2 12 Petroleum Coal Electricity Bioenergy Transportation Buildings Industry [Other]

8 Non-Electric Energy CO 2 Emissions in US 1% 8 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Cars and Light Trucks Space Heating Water Heating/cooking Other Industry Refining Industry Process Industry Boilers Heavy Trucks Other Transport Domestic Aviation Fuel Transport Half of non-electric emissions are in sectors with clear potential for deep electrification, subject to consumer behavior and significant system impacts (e.g. load shape) Industry and heavy transport: also potential for electrification, but fewer opportunities / more barriers

9 Billion tonnes CO 2 equivalent Paris and Beyond scenarios in EPRI s MERGE analysis a. Global Emissions b. Global Mean Temperature S1: Baseline S2: NDC only Base S3: NDC + Base S4: NDC ++ Base S5: NDC ++ Level 1 S6: NDC ++ Level 2 S7: NDC ++ Level 3 21 S8: 2 deg C post From The Paris Agreement and Next Steps in Limiting Global Warming, Rose et al (217), Climatic Change, forthcoming 9

10 Billion tonnes CO 2 equivalent Global Emissions in Ambitious Post-Paris Scenario 6 5 Total Emissions* 6 5 No Negative Emissions (dashed lines) Energy CO Non-Elec CO Elec CO * Excludes LU/LUC/F

11 Annual TWh Annual TWh US Electric Sector Decarbonization: US-REGEN vs MERGE 6 US-REGEN MERGE 6 (95% by 25, electric sector only) (8% by 25, economy-wide) 45 Solar 45 Wind 3 Hydro+ Nuclear New Bio-CCS 3 Gas 15 Coal Gas-CCS Coal-CCS

12 Summary Many drivers other than CPP for CPP-esque emissions reductions in US electric sector through 23 Gas price, renewable incentives, state and regional policies However there remains a disconnect with Paris goals Rapid decarbonization will require new drivers Bio-CCS seems a remote possibility other direct removal options? Electrification is promising pathway for other sectors but needs support Research needs in modeling community Better linking of long-term global analysis to near-term sectoral actions More sophistication to accurately frame trade-offs among technologies 12

13 Together Shaping the Future of Electricity 13