Systems analysis of the electricity supply options for Japan

Transcription

1 ETSAP Workshop, 17 th June 2013 Systems analysis of the electricity supply options for Japan Hiroshi Hamasaki Research Fellow, Economic Research Centre, Fujitsu Research Institute Visiting Fellow, Centre for International Public Policy Studies Amit Kanuida Partner, KanORS-EMR Contents I. Introductions & Motivations II. TIMES-GIS Hybrid Model: JMRT (Japan Multi- Regional Transmission Model) III. Systems Analysis IV. Conclusions 1 1

2 I. Introduction & Motivations After the Earthquake Thermal power station fill the electricity shortage due to low availability of nuclear power station after the earthquake. As the result, imports of fossil fuel imports increases by 4 trillion JPY (=40 billion US$) and electricity price increased by around 15%. Carbon dioxide increased by 4.2% above 2010 in 2011 (7.7% in Fuel Conversion Sector). Before the earthquake, nuclear was expected to play a major role to meet 25% below 1990 by 2020 and increase energy self sufficiency. It is very unlikely that new nuclear power station is built and it is very uncertain how many nuclear power station re-operate. Objectives This research tries to illustrate some lessons to reduce carbon dioxide without economic damage and energy security threat in Japan using systems analysis. To make realistic/believable evaluation to promote REs, we need different model framework. 2 Electricity Generation after the Earthquake 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Nuclear Coal LNG Oil Hydoro Renewables Nuclear AF 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% % 3 2

3 Electricity Generation after the Earthquake 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Changes from 2010 t % 70% 60% Nuclear AF (67.3% to 23.7%) 50% Oil Share (7.5% to 14.4%) 40% LNG Share (29.3% to 39.5%) 30% 20% Nuclear Coal LNG Oil Hydoro Renewables Nuclear AF 10% 10% 0% % 4 II. TIMES-GIS HYBRID MODEL: JMRT (JAPAN MULTI-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION MODEL) 5 3

4 JMRT is Detailed disaggregate Japanese electricity generation system model based on TIMES. 10 electricity grids with weak connections between grids. Two different electricity frequencies, 50Hz and 60Hz, with frequency converters to convert one frequency to another. Energy Demands at Prefecture Level (47 Prefectures in Japan) 12 Time Slices (4 Seasons & 3 Times) Existing PowerStation Data & Planned PowerStation Data Life-time Extension of Existing PowerStation Capacity of LNG and Coal Port Limits to the capacity share of sum of PV and Wind in each grid (20% in 2015, 40% in 2025 and 60% in 2050). 6 Overview of JMRT Existing PowerStation New Technology USC IGCC GTCC Nuclear Biomass Wind PV Existing Pumped-Storage Electricity Industry Manufacturing Non-manufacturing Domestic Household Office Transport Geothermal Small Hydro 7 USC: Ultra-super Critical IGCC: Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle GTCC: Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE 4

5 10 Grids and Grid Connections 8 10 Grids and Grid Connections 0.6GW 16.66GW 5.57GW 0.3GW 6GW 5.57GW 2.4GW 5.57GW 0.9GW 1.4GW 9 5

6 12 Time Slices 3 Time Periods Day(8~13 16~23) Peak(14~15) Night(0~7) Load Curve in Most Electricity Consumed day Million kw 4 Seasons Spring(3~6) Summer(7~9) Autumn(10~12) Winter(1~2) Peak Demand in each Year Million kw hr month 10 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE Existing PowerStation Data Existing PowerStation Data include Type of PowerStation Latitude, Longitude Prefecture Start Year Life Time Electricity Generation Capacity Availability Factor (AF) 11 6

7 Data of Renewable Potential No. Prefecture Code Lati- Longtude itude Wind Speed km mesh Huge Renewable Potential in Hokkaido Area. Geothermal Offshore Wind Onshore Wind 12 Huge Electricity Consumption in Kanto Area including Tokyo. GIS Data is from MOE Potential Survey Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE Location is important Distance from grid More than 20,000V map-sign-tizukigou-h soudensen.htm Distance from road Availability Factor Wind Speed Wind Speed (m/s) AF (%) % % % % % % % Sea Depth (Offshore) Initial Cost 13 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE 7

8 GIS to Calculate Dist. From Grid and Road Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Road Electricity Grid 14 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE New Data Sets (Off-shore Wind) GIS Data GIS Calculations New Data No. Prefecture Code Lati- Longtude itude Wind Speed Distance from Road Distance from Grid Sea Depth Capacity Investment Availability Factor (AF) O&M Life Time GIS 15 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE 8

9 GIS to TIMES (Aggregation) No. Prefecture Code Latitude Longitude Wind Speed Distance from Road Distance from Capacity Grid Investment cost Availability Factor (AF) O&M GIS Cost AF Pref 1 Pref 2 Pref 3 Pref 4 Pref 5 Pref 6 Cost 0 AF 0 Cost 0 AF 1 TIMES Cost 1 AF 0 Cost 1 AF 1 Upper limits of Capacity In each cluster 16 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE GIS to TIMES (Aggregation) GIS No. Prefecture Code Latitude Longitude Wind Speed Distance from Road Distance from Grid Onshore Wind 373,356 Tech. Capacity Investment cost Availability Factor (AF) O&M Cost AF Pref 1 Pref 2 Pref 3 Pref 4 Pref 5 Pref 6 Cost 0 AF 0 TIMES Cost 0 AF 1 Cost 1 AF 0 Cost 1 AF 1 Onshore Wind Upper limits of 3,290 Capacity In each cluster Tech. 17 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE 9

10 CCS (Carbon Capture Storage) Potential Potential (billion ton-co2) *Japan CO2 emission was 1.16 billion ton-co2 in 2010 **Total CCS Potential is 32.8 billion ton-co2. Source: Calculation based on METI 18 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE Data Sources Categories Description Sources Existing Power Stations Capacity, Generation Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Overview of Electricity Demand and Supply 2009 Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, Handbook of Electricity Business 2010 Power Stations Under Construction Capacity Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Prefecture Energy Consumption Statistics, Institute of Energy Economics LNG Port Capacity Tex Report, Gas Annual Report 2010 Renewable Energy On-shore Wind Turbine, Off-shore Wind Turbine, PV, Geothermal, Small Hydro Potential and Cost Ministry of the Environment (2011), Survey on Potential of Renewable Energy Conventional Power Generation Biomass Potential New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO), Biomass Potential and Available Biomass Estimation Cost International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear and Hydro Cost International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook Electricity Consumption Electricity Consumption by Prefecture Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Prefecture Energy Consumption Statistics Electricity Load Curve Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, Nuclear and Energy Drawings 19 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE 10

11 TWh III. SYSTEMS ANALYSIS 20 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE Cost Curves of Major RES in Japan from GIS 2,500 2,000 Offshore Wind 1, EPC Generation 860TWh (FY2011) 1, Onshore Wind PV Cents / kwh Source: Calculation from JMRT Database 21 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE 11

12 Demand & RE Potential Weak Connection 0.6GW Low Demand High RE Potential Twh High Demand Low RE Potential 22 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE Potential is just a potential Geographical RE Supply-Electricity Demand Mismatch The Japanese electricity system comprises10 grids with weak inter-grid connections. The greatest potential for on-shore wind lies in the Hokkaido and Tohoku regions in the north, while the Kanto region has great demand but limited potential, resulting in geographical supply-demand mismatch. Given the current state of Japan s power grids, the full potential of on-shore wind in the north cannot be tapped. In order for electricity produced in the north to be consumed in Kanto, interconnecting facilities are necessary, which drives up the cost. Electricity must be produced exactly when it is consumed It (and heat, to a large extent) is different from other energy forms like oil and gas in that several hours or days of supply cannot be stored in tanks and cylinders at the point of consumption. Wind power generation depends on wind flows, which are reasonably stable when averaged over months and years, but actual flows over hours and days can be significantly higher or lower than these averages. To match the demand (with seasonal and diurnal variations) using an intermittent source we need a combination of standby capacity and storage. Standby capacity could be LNG that can respond quickly and meet the deficit when wind flows are low. Storage would absorb energy when flows are above average and release when they are below. Both these options increase the cost of supplying electricity..in addition, technology development will affects the cost of supplying REs. 23 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE 12

13 Systems Analysis Systems Analysis is the dissection of a system into its component pieces to study how those component pieces interact and work. Grid Expansion CCS Cheap Solar Storage Investment for Grid-expansion between grids 1,500 US$/kW for GE between Hokkaido and Tohoku 1,000 US$ for other GEs Investment and O&M cost will decrease by 50% in 2030 and 75% in 2050 Unlimited availability of a $2,000/kw technology with storage EFF of 75% and charge/discharge rates suitable for day-night storage. 24 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE Simulation Scenarios ( ) Grid Expansion CCS Cheap Solar Storage Ref Ccs Sol SolT Tor Gex GexC GexS GexT GexST GexSCT Notice: 10 levels of CO2 prices ($0 to $1,000/t-CO2) are used in each scenario, to trigger low-carbon configurations. 440 Simulations 25 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE 13

14 Offshore Wind (TWh) Benefits of GE on Wind Grid expansion No Grid expansion Onshore Wind (TWh) 26 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE Onshore Wind by Scenario (2050) TWh Gex10 Ref10 27 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE 14

15 Electricity Generation (TWh) Electricity Generation (TWh) Supply Curve under Current Japan Ely System 1,400 Potential Offshore Wind 1,200 1, Potential Onshore Wind Win-OFF Win-ON Win-Off_Ref Win-On_Ref Electricity Price (Cents/kWh) 28 Benefits of Grid Expansion 1,400 Potential Offshore Wind 1,200 1, Potential Onshore Wind Win-OFF Win-ON Win-Off_Ref Win-On_Ref Win-Off_GE Win-On_GE Electricity Price (Cents/kWh) 29 15

16 Electricity Generation (TWh) Cost Curves of Major REs with/without GE 600 PV_Gex Offshore Wind_Gex 500 Onshore Wind_Gex PV_Ref Offshore Wind_Ref 400 Onshore Wind_Ref Electricity Price (Cent/kWh) 30 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE Wind & Solar Deployment by Prefecture (2050) Gex10 Grid Expansion CCS Cheap Solar Storage Ref10 Grid Expansion CCS Cheap Solar Storage More Wind from Hokkaido and Tohoku Onshore Wind Offshore Wind PV *Carbon Tax is 1,000 US$/tonne-CO2 **Pie Range: 0.07 to TWh More Wind from Kyushu 31 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE 16

17 Offshore Wind (TWh) Self-dependency (%) Impacts of Grid Expansion Self Dependency CO2 Emissions Self GE Self Ref CO2 GE CO2 Ref CO2 Emissions (million ton-co2) 0 0 6,900,000 7,400,000 7,900,000 8,400,000 System Cost (million US$) 32 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE Benefits of CCS With CCS Without CCS Onshore Wind (TWh) 33 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE 17

18 Self-dependency (%) Impacts of CCS Self Dependency CO2 Emissions Self CCS Self Ref CO2 CCS CO2 Ref CO2 Emissions (million ton-co2) 0 0 6,900,000 7,400,000 7,900,000 8,400,000 System Cost (million US$) 34 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE IV. Conclusions In renewable energy era, geological information makes cost curve more realistic. Japan s 10 separate electricity grids limit the potential of wind power. This means that wind turbines are not built in highly cost-effective regions, and that even if partial optimisation is being performed on each regional power grid, the entire system is not being optimised. This results in high costs for increasing the spread of renewables. CCS makes thermal power station competitive and as a result, selfdependency will be lower compared to the reference scenario, but carbon tax (=carbon restriction) will be absorbed easily. Further research will take demand side management and other sources including hydrogen into account. 35 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE 18

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