Modelling Greenhouse gas Air pollution Interactions and Synergies: Recent developments of GAINS

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1 Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Modelling Greenhouse gas Air pollution Interactions and Synergies: Recent developments of GAINS Workshop: Translating Co-benefits Research into Action in Asia IGES, Hayama, Japan; February 19-19, 213

2 Measures for SLCPs will not resolve all air quality problems; remaining measures will involve trade-offs with climate targets 16 UNEP /CCAC SLCP measures

3 Recent policy applications of GAINS in Europe (1): Scope for further improvements of health impacts of PM2.5 Loss in statistical life expectancy (months) CLE 23 MCE Million YOLLs Baseline Years of life lost MTFR-EU TSAP target for 22: -47% Baseline implies ~5 months shortening of statistical life expectancy after 22 Additional MTFR measures could save ~55 million years of life of European population Baseline MTFR-EU Baseline MTFR-EU

4 Recent policy applications of GAINS in Europe (2): Health gains can increase labor productivity Minutes per worker per year Working time to pay for measures Reduced absence from work Ambition of emission control scenarios Despite significant improvements in the past: There is still scope for highly cost-effective measures in Europe, for which just the gains in labor productivity from better health exceed mitigation costs

5 How to achieve further AQ benefits without climate penalties? Baseline - CLE Baseline - MTFR Decarb - CLE 9 8 Baseline - CLE Baseline - MTFR Decarb - CLE Baseline emission projections for the revision of the EU AQ policies Million tons SO SO 2 Decarb - MCE Million tons NOx NO x MCE GHG mitigation strategies (beyond 2%) offer further scope from for SO 2 and NO x reductions Baseline - CLE 1.4 Baseline - MTFR Decarb - CLE 1.2 Decarb - MCE Baseline - CLE Baseline - MTFR 4 Decarb - CLE Decarb - MCE Million tons PM Million tons NH PM2.5 1 NH

6 Potential indicators for climate change drivers/impacts suggested at the ECLIPSE Ad-hoc Workshop Radiative forcing [W/m2] Direct radiative forcing (i.e., without aerosol-cloud interactions) / indirect forcing global mean / by region (e.g., EMEP/South Asia/East Asia, North America, etc.) in 2/5/1 years Total aerosol load (as an indicator for potential disturbance of atmospheric processes) [Mg] compared to pre-industrial/195/reference scenario? by region all contributions added up on mass-basis Temperature change [ΔT] compared to pre-industrial/195/reference scenario? global mean/zonal/regional in 5-15 years/ in years/ in years Rate of temperature increase (per decade) [ T/ t] global mean/zonal/regional in 5-15 years/ in years/ in years Energy absorption/atmospheric forcing [?] global mean/ by region (e.g., EMEP/South Asia/East Asia, North America, etc.) in 2/5/1 years Precipitation changes (despite this is uncertain) [%] global mean/ by region (e.g., EMEP/South Asia/East Asia, North America, etc.) in 2/5/1 years BC deposition to snow/ice [g/m2] in Arctic (north of 7 degree)/alps/himalaya

7 New feature in GAINS: Co-benefits from air pollution controls for global Hg emissions thg/yr Current air pollution control measures (APCD) will reduce global Hg emissions by 2% Co-benefits expected to grow till 25 (25%) Ban on ASGM Additional air pollution controls might bring future Hg emissions below today's levels (-4% in 25) Removed through APCD Baseline emissions Maximum feasible reduction

8 New feature in GAINS: Co-benefits from climate policies for global Hg emissions Mitigation 3 thg/yr Avoided through climate measures Climate strategies help to stabilize global Hg emissions in the long run 2 Other (ASGM) Co-benefits for Hg reductions result from changes in the fuel mix Waste management Processes Domestic, transport Industry combustion Power sector Hg emissions are nearly halved by 25 relative to the Baseline 7% of overall Hg reductions achieved in the power sector (coal-fired)

9 GAINS applications for EU policies Revision of EU air pollution policies 213 Cost-effective further emission reductions, including future climate policies EU 22 Energy and Climate Package, EU Roadmap for moving to a low-carbon economy in 25, Communication of the European Commission on options to move beyond 2% greenhouse gas emission reductions mitigation potentials of non-co 2 gases health co-benefits from GHG mitigation policies on air pollution and cost-savings for air pollution control costs

10 Recent and future GAINS projects for Asia City-scale implementation of GAINS for Beijing (together with Tsinghua University) Estimating GHG mitigation potentials and costs for China and India Tackling transboundary pollution in the PRD GAINS-Korea

11 Other ongoing activities Global emission fields air pollutants as input for atmospheric models: SO 2, NO x, VOC, NH 3, PM2.5, BC, OC, CO, CH For business-as-usual and ambitious climate policy scenarios 3 cases for air pollutant controls: No further controls after 21/current legislation/mtfr For Task Force on Hemispheric Transport (HTAP) and IPCC/SSP NO x 25 SO 2 21 PM2.5 Domestic 23 VOC solvents 25

12 Range of future emissions offered by emission controls

13 Conclusions GAINS is a well-established tool for policy analyses for air and climate strategies of the European Union Co-benefits between climate and air policies are explored on a routine basis for all EU policy proposals Co-controls of Hg as an additional dimension of co-benefits New global emission scenarios will highlight the scope and importance of further air pollution control policies to be used for global air pollution and climate studies