How government subsidies influence the onshore wind energy market. Max ten Cate 27 September 2017

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "How government subsidies influence the onshore wind energy market. Max ten Cate 27 September 2017"

Transcription

1 How government subsidies influence the onshore wind energy market Max ten Cate 27 September 2017

2 Our international energy practice supports our clients throughout the initiation and execution of large scale energy & utilities projects More than 17,000 experts globally We work in 154 countries We have worked on more than 100 large scale projects in the energy & utilities sector last year With multidisciplinary teams in the fields of: Assurance, Tax, Legal and Advisory Overview of focus industries Offshore Wind Onshore Wind How government subsidies influences the onshore wind energy market Hydro Energy Power Generation Onshore energy infrastructure Solar energy 27 September

3 Today s objectives Short market overview Interactive discussion on: 01 Subsidies 02 Cost of wind energy 03 Electricity prices Cost Subsidies Onshore Wind Energy Energy prices How government subsidies influences the onshore wind energy market 27 September

4 Solar and Wind have driven the growth in renewable capacity over the past 6 years in Western Europe Total Capacity RES in Western Europe 1, (GW) % 9% 15% 9% 27% 27% 369 9% 18% 27% 7% 391 9% 19% 28% 410 8% 20% 30% 433 8% 21% 31% 455 8% 21% 32% CAGR 10-16: Other 2 6% Solar PV 23% Wind 10% Total Capacity Wind, (GW) 81 4% 10% 101 5% 122 7% 144 8% Offshore CAGR 10-16: 26% 55% 50% 46% 44% 42% 40% 39% Hydro 0% 96% 95% 93% 92% Onshore 9% Share RES of total installed capacity (% total) 37% 40% 43% 45% 46% 48% 50% 1) Countries included: AT, BE, CH, DE, DK, ES, FI, FR, GB, GR, IR, IT, NL, NO, PT, SV 2) Other includes Bio-Power and Geothermal Source: GlobalData; Strategy& analysis How government subsidies influences the onshore wind energy market 27 September

5 The pipeline of growth is concentrated around wind energy, with a significant share of the forecasted capacity for 2030 already being realized Projected and Forecasted Additional RES Capacity in Western Europe 1 by 2030 (GW) Solar Wind Solar Onshore Offshore Announced Permitting Financed Under Construction Forecasted Total Total 1) Countries included: AT, BE, CH, DE, DK, ES, FI, FR, GB, GR, IR, IT, NL, NO, PT, SV Mature projects in different stages of development Note: excluding hydro and other (geothermal and bio-power) Source: GlobalData; Strategy& analysis How government subsidies influences the onshore wind energy market 27 September

6 Significant capacity of wind and solar energy will be added in Germany, France, UK and the Netherlands Forecasted RES Capacity per Country by 2030 (GW) % RES of Total Installed Capacity in Germany % 2 Italy 67 53% 3 Spain 63 56% 4 France 98 55% 5 UK 86 59% 6 Norway 45 98% 7 Sweden 40 80% 8 Austria 31 88% 9 Switzerland 24 91% Portugal 20 Greece 14 Belgium 17 Denmark Netherlands Finland 12 Ireland 11 75% 50% 70% 81% 52% 60% 69% 2016 Other Hydro Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Solar PV 1 x Position by Total Installed RES Capacity in 2016 How government subsidies influences the onshore wind energy market 27 September ) Other includes Biopower and Geothermal Source: GlobalData; Strategy& analysis 6

7 Can new Dutch onshore wind energy projects survive without subsidies in the future? YES, between now and five years YES, after five years from now NO NO OPINION How government subsidies influences 27the September onshore wind 2017energy marke 7

8 Onshore Wind Subsidy History & Extrapolation Price in /MWh MEP SDE SDE+ SDE+ [Extrapolatie -6%] Source: Rijksdienst voor Ondernemend Nederland How government subsidies influences 27the September onshore wind 2017energy marke 8

9 Will cost efficiency make up for the reduced availability of premium wind site locations in the Netherlands? YES NO NO OPINION How government subsidies influences 27the September onshore wind 2017energy marke 9

10 LCoE developments in Onshore Wind 120 Prices in /MW % 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% Quality of location Source 2013 / 2015 : Deutsche Windguard, Kostensituation Windenergie an Land in Deutchland (update) How government subsidies influences 27the September onshore wind 2017energy marke 10

11 What will be the APX baseload electricity price in five years time? LOWER than 20 / MWh BETWEEN 20 and 40 /MWh HIGHER than 40 / MWh NO OPINION How government subsidies influences 27the September onshore wind 2017energy marke 11

12 APX Market Prices Electricity Prices in /MWh Source: APX Group How government subsidies influences 27the September onshore wind 2017energy marke 12

13 Forecast Market Prices Electricity (Germany) Source: Research How government subsidies influences 27the September onshore wind 2017energy marke 13

14 How government subsidies influence the onshore wind energy market Subsidies Onshore Wind Energy Cost Energy prices

15 Contact details Max ten Cate Senior Manager Energy & Utilities Energy & Utilities group, NL PricewaterhouseCoopers Advisory N.V. Thomas R. Malthusstraat 1006 BJ Amsterdam The Netherlands T: +31 (0) F: +31 (0) M: +31 (0) Max ten Cate Advisory How government subsidies influences the onshore wind energy market 27 September