Low Carbon Economic Development Strategy (LCEDS) for Nepal Tools and Approach. Prem Kumar Pokhrel Alternative Energy Promotion Center 2/3/2015 1

Transcription

1 Low Carbon Economic Development Strategy (LCEDS) for Nepal Tools and Approach Prem Kumar Pokhrel Alternative Energy Promotion Center 2/3/2015 1

2 Phase 1: Data Collection and Analysis (Base line data and BAU Scenario) Data collected, discussed and validated through TWG/TC meetings, Regional Stakeholder consultation & sectoral ministries. Followed Revised 1996/2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories; IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories; Guidelines for the preparation of national communications from Parties not included in annex I to the Convention. 2/3/2015 2

3 GHG estimation Sector Tier applied Remarks Energy T1 Industry T1 and T3 Only for selected industries Emission factors based on the technology are adopted Transport T3 Bottom up approach Agriculture Forestry Building and waste T1 T1 and T2 T1 and T3 2/3/2015 3

4 Phase 2: Modeling, Analysis and prepare final draft of the strategy : Final Draft Received Model Used: MARKAL for energy related sectors & EX- ACT for AFOLU (non-energy). With feedback from TWG/TC meetings, Experts, Regional Stakeholder consultation and sectoral ministries. 2/3/2015 4

5 Methodology: MARKAL modeling framework MAED Base Year 2010 Social Data Economic Data Useful Energy Demand Agricultural Sector Commercial Sector Industrial Sector Residential Sector Transport Sector Technological Data Development policies Energy Resources ANSWER MARKAL Process Technologies Conversion Technologies End-use demand technologies Different Energy Scenarios till 2030 Constraints 2/3/2015 5

6 EX-ACT Model 2/3/2015 6

7 Assumptions (Basis for different factors) ADS 2013 SE4ALL initiatives Smokeless kitchen initiatives Graduation from LDC by 2022 FRA Nepal Land Use Policy (2012) MDG (NPC 2013) Three years plan Other sectoral policies and strategies 2/3/2015 7

8 Agriculture sector with/without intervention 1000 Carbon balance in Million tco2 equivalent Low Medium High Without With Balance 2/3/2015 8

9 Forest carbon balance (degradation and Agroforestry) 2/3/2015 9

10 Policy options Energy Example Energy Related Replacement of traditional and fossil fuels by clean energy alternatives electricity, LPG and ICS. Replacement of incandescent bulbs by CFL and LED. Promotion of electrification in all 5 sectors for lighting, heating and other purposes. Intervention of more efficient process technologies in industries Intervention of mass transportation system Introduction of new electric and bio-fuel transportation technologies 2/3/

11 Energy related Sector: example BAU: Business As Usual LESO: Low Emission Strategic Options HIG: High Economic Growth LEHI: Low Emission High economic Growth 2/3/

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13 Feasibility analysis Total Technology Cost (million NRs) BAU 35,299 26,418 42,247 30,838 LESO 52,849 55,550 86,174 92,732 HIG 33,460 26,120 56,177 42,829 LEHI 50,961 56, , ,384 2/3/

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15 Low Carbon Economic Development Strategy for Nepal g]kfnsf nflu Go'g sfa{g cfly{s lasf; -d:of}bf_ 2/3/

16 Vision Upgrade Nepal to Developed Country category through Low Carbon-green economic development Mission Livelihood enhancement of people generating employment by attaining high and sustainable economic growth through the development of climate smart energy and technologies 2/3/

17 Goals Reduction in fossil fuel dependencies- Energy efficiency, renewable energy and hydropower development Promotion & Development of low carbon emitting technology and climate resilient infrastructure Poverty reduction Attracting investment for low carbon economic development and hence increasing GDP/GNP 2/3/

18 Objective Self dependant in clean energy by 2022 and attain high economic growth rate through green technology. Strategy Focus on Agriculture, Forest and Hydropower as a base for economic development. Hydropower as major energy resources Solar and wind energy promotion particularly in government and public building in 5 years 2/3/

19 Strategy. Focus on Agriculture, Forest and Hydropower as a base for economic development. Hydropower as major energy resources Solar and wind energy promotion particularly in government and public building in 5 years integrate in curriculum at different education level on clean and low carbon economic development promote environment friendly transport operated by clean energy replace the technology with energy efficient technology gradually 2/3/

20 Strategy Conservation and development of indigenous technology that consumes less energy. Climate smart agriculture. Capacity development of marginalized/deprived/vulnerable community Attract foreign investment and from private sector Maximize the benefit from different international treaty on Climate Change Polluters pay principle. follow EFLG and other sectoral policy indicators 2/3/

21 Sectoral Strategies Energy sector Agriculture and Livestock Forest sector Industry Sector Building and Waste Commercial Sector Transport Sector GESI 2/3/

22 Thank You For detail: /3/