Predicting the Large Scale and Long Term Distribution of Invasive Species using Habitat Suitability Models

Transcription

1 Predicting the Large Scale and Long Term Distribution of Invasive Species using Habitat Suitability Models Jeffrey D. Buckley 1, D. Andrew R. Drake 2, Len M. Hunt 1, and Timothy B. Johnson 1 1 Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry 2 Fisheries and Oceans Canada

2 Vulnerability of Ontario and the Laurentian Great Lakes to AIS 1

3 Facilitated movement Arrival Spread Invasion Risk Survival Habitat suitability Natural dispersal Establishment Reproduction / Life cycle 2

4 Climate Change Projected Air Temperatures Mean annual air temperature 20.0 C 0.0 C 20.0 C 10.0 C 0.0 C High mitigation

5 Climate Change Projected Air Temperatures Mean annual air temperature 20.0 C 0.0 C 20.0 C 10.0 C 0.0 C Low mitigation

6 Thermal Habitat Lake Physics 101 Thermocline Cold deep 5

7 Translating Air Temperature to Thermal Habitat Seasonal Temperature-Profile Model Inputs: - Air temperature, latitude, longitude, elevation, lake area, maximum depth, DOC/Secchi Output: - Predict day of year (Minns and Shuter 2013, Minns et al. 2015) 6

8 Loss of cold water habitat 3 times periods - Short term - Medium term - Long term 3 mitigation scenarios - High mitigation - Medium mitigation - Low mitigation 7

9 Increase in warm water habitat 3 times periods - Short term - Medium term - Long term 3 mitigation scenarios - High mitigation - Medium mitigation - Low mitigation 8

10 Linking Bioenergetics and Invasion Biology Arrival Spread Invasion Risk Establishment Survival Survival Growth Upper incipient lethal temperature Critical thermal maximum Optimum growth temperature Final temperature preferendum Reproduction Optimum spawning temperature Optimum egg development temperature 9

11 Suitability: Survival & Growth 10

12 Suitability: Survival & Growth 11

13 Suitability: Survival & Growth 12

14 Suitability: Reproduction 13

15 Habitat Suitability Index Native Cold Water Species Lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) 14

16 Habitat Suitability Index Native Cold Water Species Lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) 15

17 Habitat Suitability Index Native Warm Water Species Brown bullhead (Ameiurus nebulosus) 16

18 Habitat Suitability Index Native Warm Water Species Brown bullhead (Ameiurus nebulosus) 17

19 Habitat Suitability Index AIS Cool Water Species Eurasian ruffe (Gymnocephalus cernua) Current Climate 18

20 Habitat Suitability Index AIS Cool Water Species Current Climate High Mitigation

21 Habitat Suitability Index AIS Cool Water Species Current Climate Low Mitigation

22 Habitat Suitability Index AIS Warm Water Species Red shiner (Cyprinella lutrensis) Current Climate 21

23 Habitat Suitability Index AIS Warm Water Species Current Climate High Mitigation

24 Habitat Suitability Index AIS Warm Water Species Current Climate Low Mitigation

25 Combine Human Dimensions and Habitat Suitability Likelihood of survival & establishment Likelihood of arrival & spread Vulnerability to Invasion 24

26 Canada-Ontario Agreement Natural Heritage Policy Section (MNRF) Aquatic Invasive Species Programme (DFO) Contact: 25

27 Calculating Lake Habitat Suitability S growth S reproduction S depth = S g x S r x W proportional volume S daily = S 1m +S 2m S max depth HSI = ( S daily1 +S daily2 S daily365 ) /

28 Change in suitability Eurasian ruffe 27