Global Energy Dilemmas: A Geographical Perspective

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1 Global Energy Dilemmas: A Geographical Perspective Professor Mike Bradshaw Geographical Association Annual Conference and Exhibition

2 Subject update A2 Level: population and resources, globalization, development and inequalities, energy security, development and globalization, sustainable energy. AS Level: the energy issue, globalization and population migration, population change, energy issues, population change. GCSE: globalization, development, population, climate change, energy, environment.

3 Plan 1. Introduction 2. (Re) Defining Energy Security 3. The Kaya Identity : Putting it all together 4. The Global Energy Dilemmas Nexus 5. Conclusion: The Global Governance Challenge

4 Introduction: Global Energy Dilemmas Without energy there is no economy. Without climate there is no environment. Without economy and environment there is no material wealth, no civil society, no personal or national security. And the problem is that we have been getting the energy our economy needs in ways that are wrecking the climate that our environment needs. John P. Holdren (Science Advisor to President Barrack Obama) It is no exaggeration to claim that the future of human prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle two central energy challenges facing us today: securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally benign system of energy supply. International Energy Agency 2008

5 The Global Energy Dilemma Can we have secure and affordable energy services that are environmentally benign? ENERGY ENVIRONMENT Energy Security Climate Change ECONOMY Globalization

6 2. (Re) Defining Energy Security The three E s: Energy, Economy and Environment the uninterrupted physical availability at a price which is affordable, while respecting environment concerns IEA 2011 the uninterrupted physical availability of energy products and services on the market, at a price which is affordable for all consumers (private and industrial), while contributing to the EU s wider social and climate goals EU 2011

7 A Global Shift in Energy Demand is underway Non-OECD demand will account for 93% of the projected increase in energy demand to 2035 (IEA 2010) Non-OECD Quadrillion BTUs OECD Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2011

8 Trends in Global Oil Production Non-OPEC OPEC Million Tons FSU OPEC Non- OPEC (- FSU) Former Soviet Union Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011

9 Who has the oil? The Middle East controls more than 60 percent of the world s remaining oil. Norway Azerbaijan Russia 72 bbs Canada 16 bbs United States 21 bbs Mexico The United States consumes more than 20,000,000 barrels of oil every day but has less than 2 percent of the world s remaining oil. Iraq 115 bbs Kazakhstan 39 bbs Iran 132 bbs China 17 bbs India Malaysia Vietnam Colombia Venezuela 77 bbs Algeria Libya 39 bbs Egypt Sudan Kuwait 99 bbs Ecuador Brazil Nigeria 35 bbs Saudi Arabia 262 billion barrels (bbs) Qatar 15 bbs United Arab Emirates 97 bbs Angola Who consumes the oil? (thousands of barrels per day) 6,000+ 3,000-5,999 2,000-2,999 1,000-1, Country size is relative to share of global oil reserves in Share of Global Proven Oil Reserves in OPEC, 77.2 OPEC Non- OPEC OECD FSU Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

10 Transition from West to East Source: The Economist 2011

11 Plan 1. Introduction 2. (Re) Defining Energy Security 3. The Kaya Identity : Putting it all together 4. The Global Energy Dilemmas Nexus 5. Conclusion: The Global Governance Challenge

12 3.The Kaya Identity : Putting it all together (Named after the Japanese energy economist Yoichi Kaya) Fuel Mix Energy Intensity Activity Total CO 2 emissions for energy = (CO 2 /E) Carbon Intensity x E/GDP Energy Intensity x GDP/Pop GDP per Capita x Pop Population CO 2 = Carbon dioxide emissions E = Energy consumption GDP = Gross Domestic Product Pop = Population

13 Primary energy consumption per capita Worldwide, nearly 2.4 billion people still use traditional biomass fuels for cooking and nearly 1.6 billion people do not have access to electricity. Sustainable Energy for all, by 2030: Ensuring universal access to modern energy services; Doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency; and, Doubling the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011

14 Energy Consumption versus GDP: 2008

15 Energy Ratios & Economic Development High Energy use c o u n t r i e s D evelo p e d c o u n t r i e s Energy ratio < 1.0 Energy ratio 1.0 Slow growth or reduced energy use i n g D e ve l o p Energy ratio > 1.0 Low Energy ratio < 1.0 Pre-industrial Industrial Post-industrial Development over time Figure 5.11 Energy ratios and economic development. Source: Environmental Resources, Mather, A.S. and Chapman, K., Pearson Education Limited Prentice Hall (1995)

16 Energy use per unit of GDP (toe per thousand $2009 PPP) 0.6 Kg of oil equivalent $ 1,000 GDP Russia China Forecast Energy Intensity India US Japan EU UK US World China India Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030, 2012, 12.

17 Energy Intensity KOE\GDP$2005ppp Russia China 0.2 United States EU & Japan

18 The Kaya Identity CO 2 = (CO 2 /E) x E/GDP x GDP/Pop x Pop Carbon Intensity Energy Intensity GDP per Capita Population CO 2 = Total energy related carbon dioxide emissions E = Energy consumption GDP = Gross Domestic Product Pop = Population

19 CO 2 Emissions Per Capita in 2007 The United States accounts for 20.9% of total CO 2 emissions and 4.6% of the World s population. In 2009 the level of CO 2 emissions per capita was 19.3 metric tons in the US, 9.4 in the UK, 4.7 in China and 0.3 in Bangladesh. Source: CAIT

20 Carbon Intensity of Energy Use % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Changing Carbon Intensity of Energy Use: 1990=100 China India World Primary Energy Mix in % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% China India World OECD - 5% - 10% Source: CAIT OECD Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Energy Hydro electricity Renewables Source: BP

21 A global shift in economic output The number of people living on less than $1.25 a day fell to 1.4 billion in 2005 from 1.8 billion in 1990 In 2010, Japan's economy was worth $5.474 trillion, China's economy was closer to $5.8 trillion in the same year. 2008

22 Projected Population Change World population reached 7 billion in late 2011 and will surpass 9 billion people by slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emission reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. Neill et al. (2010) Projected Population Change Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

23 The Kaya Identity CO 2 = (CO 2 /E) x E/GDP x GDP/Pop x Pop Carbon Intensity Energy Intensity GDP per Capita Population CO 2 = Total energy related carbon dioxide emissions E = Energy consumption GDP = Gross Domestic Product Pop = Population

24 Total CO 2 Emissions from Energy Use in 2008 Source: CAIT

25 Geographical Concentration of CO 2 Emissions from Energy: Rest of the World % of Global GHG Emission USA plus South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia plus Mexico, Australia, Iran plus EU (27) USA plus China plus Canada, S Korea, Ukraine plus Russia, Japan, India The top 15 emi ers account for 85.01% of total CO2 emission from energy Number of Countries

26 Two words of caution: embedded carbon Arrows depict the largest interregional fluxes of emissions (Mt CO y 1) from net exporting countries (blue) to net importing countries (red); the threshold for arrows is 200 Mt CO y 1 in Top and Bottom and 100 Mt CO y 1 in Middle. Fluxes to and from Europe are aggregated to include all 27 member states of the European Union. The geographical concentration of fossil fuel resources leads to larger fluxes of emissions than those concentrations embodied in goods and services.

27 The Triple Challenge To improve energy intensity, that is to reduce the amount of energy used per unit of economic output. To reduce the carbon intensity of energy use, that is to reduce the amount of CO 2 produced per unit of energy used. To achieve the above in ways that are: equitable, secure and affordable (and that does not threaten economic growth).

28 The key issues behind the drivers of change Fossil Fuel Energy Scarcity (surviving the end of the hydrocarbon age): Peak Oil, End of Easy Oil, Resource Curse, Geopolitics of Global Energy Security. Climate Change Policy (reducing carbon emissions): Post-Kyoto Emission Targets, Low Carbon Energy Transition, Geopolitics of Climate Change. Economic Globalization (sustaining growth and promoting poverty reduction): Economic growth, Population Change, Urbanization.

29 Plan 1. Introduction 2. (Re) Defining Energy Security 3. The Kaya Identity : Putting it all together 4. The Global Energy Dilemmas Nexus 5. Conclusion: The Global Governance Challenge

30 4. The Global Energy Dilemmas Nexus Energy Security Energy Security? Climate Change Climate Change Globaliza3on Globalization

31 The Global Energy Dilemmas Nexus Developed Energy Rich (Exporting) Canada, Norway Australia Energy Poor (Importing) EU-15, Japan, Korea Post-Socialist Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan Emerging (Russia), (Brazil), Saudi Arabia, UAE Baltic States and Central Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus (China), India, South Africa, Indonesia Developing Nigeria, Sudan, Venezuela, Angola The rest of the Global South!

32 Kaya Characteristics by Macro Region (Per cent of global total*) CO 2 Emissions Energy Use GNI (PPP) Population Developed Post- Socialist Emerging Developing / * Columns do not add up to 100 due to unclassified countries in the World Bank data. Source: World Bank Data

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34 Global Energy Dilemmas: Drivers High Energy Societies Post-Socialist Economies Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity Economic Growth Population Growth Emerging Economies Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity Economic Growth Population Growth Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity Economic Growth Population Growth Developing Economies Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity Economic Growth Population Growth

35 5. Conclusion: The Global Governance Challenge IEF IEA OPEC GECF? UNFCCC IMF, WTO, World Bank G8-G20-G77 OECD ASEAN, EU, NAFTA

36 Thank you

37 Bibliography Bradshaw, M.J. (2010) Global Energy Dilemmas: A Geographical Perspective, The Geographical Journal, 176 (4): Available free at: abstract BP (January 2012) BP Energy Outlook Available at: (Also home of the BP s Statistical Yearbook) Climate Analysis Indicator Tools (CAIT) World Resource Institute: Available at: International Energy Agency (2011) World Energy Outlook. Available at: US Energy Information Administration (2011) International Energy Outlook Available at: