Freshwater Health Assessments in the Great Lakes

Transcription

1 SOSMART Freshwater Health Assessments in the Great Lakes James Snider, Acting Freshwater Director WWF-Canada Greg Stott/WWF-Canada April 10,

2 A major milestone. All major freshwater systems assessed by by

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4 Hydrology Metric -- Composite metric comprised of 5 indicators: 1. Trends in median monthly flow, long-term (onset of monitoring present) 2. Trends in median monthly flow, short-term (last available monitoring present) 4

5 Hydrology Metric -- Composite metric comprised of 5 indicators: 3. Long-term trends in annual flows Sub-basin score reported as average annual percentage change in MAF, calculated across sites with significant trend, and weighted across sites by long-term MAD. 5

6 Hydrology Metric -- Composite metric comprised of 5 indicators: Pre- vs. Post-Dam / Historical vs. Recent analysis: 4. Variance in monthly flow 5. Percentage Change in Median Monthly Flow 6

7 Water Quality 75 th Percentile 90 th Percentile Indicator: Proportion of water quality measurements that exceed three chosen thresholds: (1) Provincial or Federal water quality guidelines; (2) 90 th percentile of historical distribution; and (3) 75 th percentile of historical distribution Provincial Guideline (e.g. Nitrate = 2.93 mg/l) Number of Observations Various data sources, including Environment Canada s EnviroDat, and provincial agencies (e.g. Ontario s Provincial Water Quality Monitoring Network) Concentration (mg/l) 7

8 Benthics Metric: Family-Level Hilsenhoff Biotic Index A measure of benthic invertebrate community composition, based on relative sensitivity of taxa (i.e. species, genus or family) to disturbance (e.g. Organic pollutants). HBI = Σ(x i *t i )/(n), where x i = number of individuals within a family t i = tolerance value of a family n = total number of organisms in the sample Dragonfly Nymph Sideswimmer Snails Caddisfly

9 Fish Metric Indicator: Presence/Absence of a decline in native fish species richness over time (i.e. Loss of native fish diversity) Median Number of Native Fish Species Analysis of both median and total annual fish species richness Linear Regression* * All statistics used in FHA are non-parametric. We use the analogous non-parametric test Year Sources: Provincial databases, including BC Historical Fish Observances, Alberta s Fish & Wildlife Information System, Ontario s Flowing Waters Information System

10 Draft Results: The Great Lakes Overall River Health Hydrology Water Quality Benthic Macro-Invertebrates Fish Indicator Total Score Total Available Score Percentage of Maximum Score Overall Health Category Hydrology Health Category Hydrology Score Water Quality Health Category Water Quality Health Score Benthic Health Category Benthic Health Score Fish Health Category Fish Health Score 02A Northwestern Lake Superior 02B Northeastern Lake Superior 02C Northern Lake Huron 02D Wanipatai and French 02E Eastern Georgian Bay 02F Eastern Lake Huron 02G Northern Lake Erie 02H Lake Ontario and the Niagara Peninsula Good Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair M (part of) Upper St.Lawrence deficient Poor Fair Fair Fair Good Fair Fair Good Fair deficient deficient deficient deficient deficient deficient Poor Poor Good Good Fair 3 deficient % 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 50.0% 62.5% 66.7% 66.7% 75.0% 75.0% deficient Fair deficient deficient deficient deficient Fair Fair deficient deficient Basin 10

11 Draft Results for Great Lakes: Lake Ontario Overall score: Fair sufficiency score: Partially Sufficient Overall River Health Hydrology Water Quality Benthic Macro-Invertebrates Fish Indicator Total Score Total Available Score Percentage of Maximum Score Hydrology Health Category Hydrology Score Water Quality Health Category Water Quality Health Score Benthic Health Category Benthic Health Score Fish Health Category Fish Health Score Basin Fair 3 Fair 3 Fair % Overall River Health Hydrology Water Quality Benthic Macro- Invertebrates Fish Indicator Sufficiency Category Partially Sufficient Sufficiency Score 1 Sufficiency Category Moderately Sufficient Sufficiency Score 2 Sufficiency Category Partially Sufficient Sufficiency Score 1 Sufficiency Category 0 Sufficiency Score 0 Total Score Total Available Score Percentage of Maximum Score Basin % Overall Health Category Fair Overall Sufficiency Category Partially Sufficient 11

12 Lake Ontario: Hydrology Long-Term Trends in Monthly Flow Recent-Term Trends in Monthly Flow Long-Term Trends in Annual Flow Indicator Average percentage change in median monthly flow, measured as the relative change in median monthly flow per year, reported as an average across studied stations and weighted by the median annual flow per station. Average percentage change in median monthly flow, measured as the relative change in median monthly flow per year, reported as an average across studied stations and weighted by the median annual flow per station. Average percentage change in median annual flow, reported as an average across studied stations and weighted by the median annual flow per station. Period of Study Number of Stations 5 Value 0.60 Health Category Good Health Score 4 Period of Study Number of Stations 46 Value 0.04 Health Category Very Good Health Score 5 Period of Study Number of Stations 5 Value 1.0 Health Category Basin Fair Pre- vs. Post- Dam or Recent vs. Historical Analsis of Monthly Flow Percentage of total months, for all stations analyzed, with significantly different variance in monthly flow pre- vs. post-dam operation or for historical vs. Recent time periods in undammed systems. Percentage change in median monthly flow pre-and post-dam or for historical vs. Recent time periods in undammed systems, averaged across studied stations by mean annual flow. Hydrology Score Period of Study Various Number of Stations 8 Value 77.9% Health Category Very Poor Health Score 1 Period of Study Various Number of Stations 8 Value 32.67% Health Category Fair Health Score 2 Total Score 15 Maximum Available Score Percentage of Maximum Score Hydrology Health Category % Fair Health Score 3 Hydrology Score 3 12

13 Lake Ontario: Water Quality Basin Indicator Value Water Quality Exceedance of water quality guidelines for aquatic life Exceedance of water quality thresholds. Weighted average of exceedances of three thresholds: water quality guidelines,90th percentile and 77th percentile. Expressed as a proportion of total measurements. Reported as a weighted average for the most recent five years. Year Number of Stations 163 Value 0.14 Water Quality Health Category Water Quality Health Score Fair 3 Significant Mann-Kendal timeseries test to determine directional trend in proportion of exceedance of water quality thresholds. Time Period Trend Significant negative trend in proportion of exceedance 13

14 Lake Ontario: Water Quality 14

15 Lake Ontario: Benthics Basin Indicator Value Year Number of Sites 109 Benthic Macro- Invertebrates Median Hilsenhoff Biotic Index (HBI) score for the basin. Index of benthic Reported as a weighted average community for the most recent five years. composition based on sensitivity to disturbance Value 5.30 Benthic Health Category Benthic Health Score Fair 2 Significant Mann-Kendal timeseries test to determine directional trend in HBI over time. Time Period Trend Significant Increase 15

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17 Lake Erie Overall score: Fair sufficiency: Partially sufficient Indicator Basin Indicator Basin Hydrology Hydrolog y Health Ca teg ory Hydrology Score Fair 2 Hydrology Sufficiency Category Moderately Sufficient Sufficiency Score 2 Water Quality Water Quality Health Ca teg ory Water Quality Health Score Fair 2 Water Quality Sufficiency Category Partially Sufficient Sufficiency Score 1 Overall River Health Benthic Macro-Invertebrates Fish Benthic Hea lth Ca teg ory Benthic Health Score Fish Hea lth Ca teg ory Fish Health Score Fair 2 Overall River Health Benthic Macro- Invertebrates Fish Sufficiency Category Partially Sufficient Sufficiency Score 1 Sufficiency Category Insufficient Sufficiency Score 0 Total Score 4 Total Score 6 Total Available Score 12 Total Available Score 12 Percentage of Maximum Score 33.3% Percentage of Maximum Score Overa ll Hea lth Ca teg ory 50.0% Fair Overall Sufficiency Category Partially Sufficient 17

18 Lake Erie: Water Quality Basin Indicator Value Water Quality Exceedance of water quality guidelines for aquatic life Exceedance of water quality thresholds. Weighted average of exceedances of three thresholds: water quality guidelines,90th percentile and 77th percentile. Expressed as a proportion of total measurements. Reported as a weighted average for the most recent five years. Significant Mann-Kendal timeseries test to determine directional trend in proportion of exceedance of water quality thresholds. Year Number of Stations 110 Value 0.19 Wa ter Quality Hea lth Ca teg ory Water Quality Health Score Fair Time Period Trend 2 Significant negative trend in proportion of exceedance 18

19 Lake Erie: Water Quality 19

20 Lake Erie: Benthics Basin Indicator Value Year Benthic Macro- Invertebrates Index of benthic community composition based on sensitivity to disturbance Median Hilsenhoff Biotic Index (HBI) score for the basin. Reported as a weighted average for the most recent five years. Number of Sites 185 Value 5.58 Benthic Health Category Benthic Health Score Fair 2 Significant Mann-Kendal time-series test to determine directional trend in HBI over time. Time Period Trend No significant trend. 20

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22 Lake Huron & Georgian Bay Overall score: deficient sufficiency: deficient Overall River Health Hydrology Water Quality Benthic Macro- Invertebrates Fish Indicator Total Score Total Available Score Hydrology Health Category Hydrology Score Water Quality Health Category Water Quality Health Score Percentage of Maximum Score Overall Health Category Benthic Health Category Benthic Health Score Fish Health Category Fish Health Score Northern Lake Huron Wanipatai and French Eastern Georgian Bay Eastern Lake Huron Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Good Fair % 50.0% 50.0% 62.5% 50.0% Sub-Basin Basin 22

23 Lake Huron: Water Quality Sub-Basin Indicator Northern Lake Huron Wanipatai and French Eastern Georgian Bay Eastern Lake Huron Basin Water Quality Exceedance of water quality guidelines for aquatic life Exceedance of water quality thresholds. Weighted average of exceedances of three thresholds: water quality guidelines,90th percentile and 77th percentile. Expressed as a proportion of total measurements. Reported as a weighted average for the last five years. Significant Mann-Kendal time-series test to determine directional Year Number of Stations Value Water Quality Health Category Water Quality Health Score Fair Fair Fair Good Fair Time Period Trend None None None None None 23

24 Lake Huron: Water Quality 24

25 Lake Huron: Water Quality 25

26 Lake Huron: Benthics Sub-Basin Basin Indicator Northern Lake Huron Wanipitai and French Eastern Georgian Bay Eastern Lake Huron Value Year Benthic Macro- Invertebrates Index of benthic community composition based on sensitivity to disturbance Median Hilsenhoff Biotic Index (HBI) score for the basin. Reported as a weighted average for the most recent five years. Number of Sites Value Benthic Health Category Benthic Health Score Significant Mann-Kendal timeseries test to determine directional trend in HBI over time. Time Period Trend None - - None Significant Increase 26

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28 Lake Superior Overall score: deficient sufficiency: Date deficient Sub-Basin Overall River Health Hydrology Water Quality Benthic Macro- Invertebrates Indicator Hydrology Health Category Hydrology Score Water Quality Health Category Water Quality Health Score Benthic Health Category Benthic Health Score Northwestern Lake Superior Northeastern Lake Superior Basin Good Fair Fair Poor 1 Fish Fish Health Category Fish Health Score Total Score Total Available Score Percentage of Maximum Score 75.0% 37.5% 50.0% Overall Health Category 28

29 Lake Superior: Water Quality Water Quality Exceedance of water quality guidelines for aquatic life Indicator Exceedance of water quality thresholds. Weighted average of exceedances of three thresholds: water quality guidelines,90th percentile and 77th percentile. Expressed as a proportion of total measurements. Reported as a weighted average for the last five years. Significant Mann-Kendal time-series test to determine directional trend in proportion of exceedance of water quality thresholds. Northwestern Lake Superior Northeastern Lake Superior Year Number of Stations Value Water Quality Health Category Water Quality Health Score Poor 1 Time Period Trend Sub-Basin Significant negative trend in proportion of exceedance None Basin None 29

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31 Building on the FHAs - The Freshwater Threats Assessment (FTA) will build upon the work of the FHA s to provide a full picture of the health of our freshwater nationally - FHA provides the answer to what the health status is, FTA provides the answer to why it is in the current state We can then determine how to fix it through the appropriate course of action policy, legislation, restoration, etc. 31

32 Key Threats to Freshwater Ecosystems Threat Indicators Source Habitat loss Habitat Fragmentation Percentage watershed area classified as cultivated or artificial surfaces. 1) Relative length of river network that is unaltered by dams. 2) Density of river crossings by roads and rails. Global Land Cover Map (derived from Landsat) National Hydro and Road Networks Over allocation Ratio of water use to water yield Statistics Canada (2010) Pollution 1) NPRI releases into land and water, weighted by relative position in watershed (upstream/downstream) 2) Risk of agricultural contamination from pesticides, nitrogen and phosphorus 3) Pipeline incidents 1. National Pollutant Release Inventory 2. National Agri-Environmental Health Analysis & Reporting Program 3. National Energy Board Invasive Species Index of invasive species presence Conservation Centres, Global Biodiversity Facility Climate Change Climate anomalies: 1. Summer Max Temperature 2. Winter Mean Temperature 3. Spring Precipitation 4. Summer precipitation NRCAN CANGRID Climate Anomalies dataset 32

33 DRAFT 33

34 Ecological Condition ( Health ) Scientific Basis for an Evidence-Based Decision-Making Framework For Example Ecosystem Health Cumulative Stress ( Threat ) Action Very Good Low Protection Good Low Conservation Fair Moderate Precautionary Management Poor High Restoration Very Poor Very High Restoration Monitoring * Completed at the watershed scale ** Can be completed for individual health metrics & specific stressors Designed to inform action, including watershed management, governance & policy (e.g. fed, prov.) 34

35 Thank you wwf.ca James Snider 35