Coal - Bridge to the Hydrogen Economy

Transcription

1 Coal - Bridge to the Hydrogen Economy Keynote presentation at the Eighteenth Annual International Pittsburgh Coal Conference December 4, 2001 Newcastle, NSW, Australia by Dale Simbeck 444 Castro Street, Suite 720 phone: Mountain View, California fax: web home page: simbeck@sfapacific.com

2 Presentation Overview ydrogen as a fuel - some ugly properties hen why hydrogen? Began as a nuclear agenda Required for fuel cells to make it ndustrial hydrogen economics & markets are well established he Holy Grail of the hydrogen economy he future of hydrogen Power generation & the global climate change (GHG) issue are keys Coal gasification with CO 2 capture for H 2 to power & polygeneration onclusions

3 Hydrogen as a Fuel - Some Ugly Properties is not a naturally occurring fuel like NG, oil, coal & biomass is expensive & its production is inefficient is one of the lowest energy density fuels - 1/3 NG is difficult & expensive to compress, transport & store is dangerous to use - big explosive range & invisible flame is an inefficient fuel due to the large water formations & its energy lost in the flue gas - LHV/HHV is 84.6% % losses 2 is a poor fuel for traditional engines (RE or GT) due to: High NOx emissions of high flame temperature Reduced power from the low mass flow of fuel per million Btu

4 egan as a nuclear agenda Then Why Hydrogen? When nuclear was considered too cheap to meter H 2 electrolysis was a way to expand nuclear markets beyond just electricity When nuclear became too expensive to compete H 2 was viewed as a way to save nuclear via advanced gas cooled H 2 O splitting equired for fuel cells to make it Fuel cells only work on H 2 - fuel cells are only indirectly fuel flexible Unique advantage of fuel cells is the electrochemical reaction that could lead to innovative regenerative H 2, O 2 & electric storage Fuel cells will have to demonstrate good performance & reliability in stationary power applications before they can make it in vehicles Electricity is the major energy growth market at twice that of vehicles

5 Hydrogen Economics Control the Future of Fuel Cells imply separate the cost & efficiency of NG to H 2 & H 2 to kwh elivered industrial power price in U.S. is 4.4 cents/kwh o make 4 cents/kwh baseload electricity for NG based fuel cell Assuming Fuel Cell has a 60% efficiency (LHV) & only $400/kW Requires H $5.27/million Btu (LHV) or $1.45/1,000 scf f fuel cell advocates can really make H 2 at < $5.27/million Btu, they should forget fuel cells for now & make their fortune selling H 2 to oil refineries & ammonia fertilizer plants Higher profit relative to existing H 2 manufacturing & NGCC power Larger well established markets that are growing

6 Cost of Industrial Hydrogen from Natural Gas tate of the art 60 million scf/d H 2 steam methane reformer 200 MW th (LHV) or 120 MW e equivalent for fuel cell power thinking Capital cost of $60-90 million or $1-1.5 per scf/d H 2, assume $75 MM Efficiency of 360 Btu NG (LHV) per scf H2 or 76.1% (LHV) low cost of capital $/M scf $/MM Btu LHV Capital 15% per yr. of capital Non-fuel 5% per yr. of capital $3.33/MM Btu LHV ($3.00 HHV) Total owe-baker makes a small (2-6 million scf/d) standardized SMR at higher H 2 unit costs & lower efficiency (68.5% LHV)

7 Current Industrial Hydrogen Markets orld ammonia & methanol consume > 15 billion scf/d H 2 or 50,000 MW th energy & growing at 2-4%/yr orld oil refineries consume > 10 billion scf/d H 2 or 33,000 MW th & growing at 5-10%/yr due to reformulated cleaner fuels Less catalytic naphtha reforming byproduct H 2 & octane barrels More hydrotreating & hydrocracking to make octane & cleaner fuels More heavier crude oil require significant H 2 to convert to light liquids The oil refinery of the future will be much like California refineries today with H 2 consumption of over 1,000 scf per barrel of product orldwide over 10,000 miles of H 2 pipelines the longest being 250 miles from Antwerp to 100 atm. pressure

8 The Holy Grail of the Hydrogen Economy ased on several key assumptions The logical progression of time & higher standard of living shows we move from solid to liquid to gaseous fuels, each cleaner & lower CO 2 Small renewables are beautiful, cheap, efficient, clean & honorable Must look beyond the fossil fuel age to a sustainable energy world based on hydrogen for renewables & biomass ydrogen zealots believe this transition must begin now Believe they are on a mission from God or are the forces of good However, you cannot rationally discuss religion with a religious zealot ydrogen economy - renewable making electricity & H 2 for fuel cells is quite possible when the fossil fuel age peaks in years, making fossil fuels increasingly expensive

9 FA Pacific s Projection of the Fossil Age Peak Carbon Emissions GtC/y Source: Total Year IS92a Oil Coal Gas S550

10 Many Issues & Challenges Yet to Resolve xcept for opportunity waste biomass which is quite limited, biomass requires cheap land & cheap labor to be economical olar & wind turbines suffer from low annual load factors and need for backup power when they are not available mall may be beautiful, but usually not cheap, efficient or clean Small energy consumers have very low annual load requirements yet very high peak demands, why residential energy is 2-3 times industrial Permitting, fuel prices, O&M & emissions are problems at small scale Small scale hydrogen is more expensive to make, move & store avors existing energy infrastructure & fossil fuels to start Power generation & global climate change (GHG) are the keys

11 Hydrogen Zealots have a Burden to Carry hich is likely to have the west unit costs of: permitting, el, capital, O&M, emissions & roject development costs? Oil, NG, syngas or H 2 for a 50,000 kw gas turbine or Something to H 2 for a 50 kw fuel cell

12 The Future of Hydrogen ontinue subsidies, capacity off-sets & half-truths promotions of both fuel cell & renewables - the Holy Grail is sacred Advanced leap frog & breakthroughs technologies are the only truths researchers, government technocrats & promoters hear This helps existing industries slow mandates against their highly profitable yet dirty & inefficient SUVs & existing coal power plants If cheap regenerative fuel cells & hydrogen generators can really be developed, the Holy Grail hydrogen economy is quite interesting xpect coal gasification with CO 2 capture for H 2 to power Assuming GHG is a big problem & we can stomach the real costs Much cheaper than renewables & matches existing infrastructure Requires incentive to get existing coal-fired power plants to repower

13 United States CO 2 Emissions by Sector and Fuels in 1998 illions of metric tons per year carbon equivalent Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Electric Utiliites Source: U.S. EPA Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, April 2000

14 Power Generation Will Be Forced to Meet a isproportionate Share of Any CO 2 Reductions ransportation fuel users have more votes than CO 2 intensive industries as demonstrated last summer in the US & Europe ower plants can not move to China, as other CO 2 intensive industries in Annex 1 nations, if faced with carbon taxes arge potential for efficiency improvements in power gen. However efficiency usually just reduces CO 2 growth rate, still grows arge point sources of power gen reduce CO 2 avoidance costs Key to addressing the global warming issue is CO 2 capture & storage for new, but especially existing coal-fired power plants

15 CO 2 Mitigation - Existing Coal Power Plants 300,000 MW of big dirty grandfathered coal unit in the US 35% of the US & 9% of the entire world s man-made CO 2 emissions trategic grid locations, cheap coal & easy permitting to expand capacity if reduce emissions & increase efficiency est options NG repowering without CO 2 control if moderate NG price CGCC repowering with CO 2 capture, especially if nearby EOR or CBM asification repowering increases both capacity & efficiency while reducing all emissions to near zero & staying on coal This H 2 based power appears to be one the best options for massive CO 2 reduction at minimal costs, especially if CO 2 can be utilized

16 CO 2 Storage with Utilization Value lready over 30 million metric tons per year (mt/yr.) of CO 2 stored via enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in North America Equal to the CO 2 generated by 4,000 MW of coal-fired power plants Six projects - totaling 6 million mt/yr. of CO 2 recovered from process plants that would otherwise vent this CO 2 to the atmosphere Includes 1.8 million mt/yr. CO 2 from the Dakota coal gasification plant Already 2 CO 2 emission credit trades of CO 2 EOR from process plants Typical EOR uses 6,000 scf (or 0.3 mt) CO 2 per incremental bbl (0.14 mt) crude oil production at a CO 2 price of $0.60/1,000 scf (or $11/mt) At 8,500 scf CO 2 per incremental bbl oil, the oil produced is carbon neutral xpect large growth in CO 2 storage for EOR & CBM

17 Status of Gasification for Combined Cycle Power Generation & H 2 + CO 2 Generation orldwide commercial gasification capacity is almost 50,000 MW th (syngas) operating & growing at 5,000 MW th /yr. New projects are mostly petroleum coke or pitch gasification in oil refineries for polygeneration xtensive successful commercial experience with coal, coke & heavy oil gasification producing pure H 2 & CO 2 streams Over 15 commercial gasification based ammonia fertilizer plants, most in China, but a few in US, Germany, Japan & India eneral Electric has tested & will give commercial performance guarantees for H 2 fired gas turbines

18 Polygeneration efined as gasification to make synthesis gas (H 2 & CO) for GTbased cogen steam/power + syngas chemicals & fuels hell Pernis refinery project is a good example, no subsidies Pitch gasification - 3 units total 640 MW th with 2 gasifiers for refinery H & 1 gasifier for GCC cogeneration steam & power reat potential for polygeneration in the future due to ongoing deregulation of electric power generation Use of low value opportunity fuels high in metals, nitrogen & sulfur Even attractive for CO 2 recovery (will likely add this at Pernis) Offers greater flexibility than traditional power plant relative to fuels, products, revenues, emissions, efficiency & annual capacity factors Coke is the bridge to future coal gasification based polygeneration

19 Gasification Technology Trends Texaco - about 75% of the market the last 5 years Simple direct water quench designs well suited for polygeneration Aggressive marketing including equity participation in 6 projects Extensive successful operating experience on various feedstocks Texaco is the most aggressive in reducing capital costs by working with GE & Praxair on improved standardized GT integrated designs Innovative H 2 -CGCC with CO2 capture design by Texaco/GE/Jacobs Challengers to Texaco - mostly entrained slagging processes Simple, flexible & clean - any feedstock to just: syngas, sulfur & slag Shell - now taking equity positions: Sinopec coal to ammonia project E-Gas (Destec) - operation with pet coke & over-the-fence syngas Lurgi MPG & Noell KRC - operations with nasty waste fuels

20 he future of hydrogen Conclusions Short-term is the global warming issue & large, low-cost CO 2 reductions that could favor H 2 -CGCC power with CO 2 storage, especially for existing coal-fired power plants via CGCC repowering Mid-term is improved fuel cells, especially if cheap regenerative fuel cells & improved hydrogen generation, handling & storage Long-term the Holy Grail of the hydrogen economy is quite interesting, especially if the hydrogen zealots become more rational, objective & flexible regarding the use of existing energy infrastructure he hydrogen economy will have to start with fossil fuels Coal is the world s largest & cheapest fuel source & power generators Key to addressing the global warming issue is CO 2 capture & storage Clearly favors coal gasification with CO 2 capture for H 2 in IGCC power generation repowering & polygeneration of various clean fuels