HYDROSYSTEMS ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT

Transcription

1 HYDROSYSTEMS ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT Larry W. Mays Professar and Chair Department of Ci vi/ Engineering Arizona Stare University Yeou-Koung Tung Associare Professar, Departmenr of Staristics Hydrologist, Wyoming Water Research Cenrer University of Wyoming McGraw-Hill, Inc. New Yoik St. Louis San Francisco Auckland Bogo!A Caracas Lisbon London Madrid Mexico Milan Montreal New Delhi Paris San Juan Singapore Sydney Tokyo Toronto

2 CONTENTS Preface xvii Part l Principles l Introduction 3 l.l Background Descriptions of Hydrosystems The Systems Concept Issues in Hydrosystems Engineering Design versus Analysis Il Conventional versus Optimization Procedures Il Optimization Single-Objective versus Multiple-Objective Optimization Uncertainties in Hydrosystem Design and Analysis Applications of Optimization in Hydrosystems Building a Mode! 18 References 20 Books on Selected Topics 20 Problems 22 2 Economics for Hydrosystems Engineering Economie Analysis Benefit-Cost Analysis Theory of Consumer Behavior Utility Maximization of Utility Demand Functions Theory of the Firm Basic Concepts Optimal Input Combinations Cost in the Short Run 44 ix

3 x CO:-<TE:'> J'~ Cost in the Long Run Elasticities of Output and Substitution Demand, Supply. and Market Equilibrium 47 Refercnccs 49 Problems 50 3 Linear Programming with Applications to Hydrosystems Linear Programming Assumptions in Linear Programming Models 57 3.l.2 Fom1s of Linear Programming Solution Algorithms for Linear Programming Graphical Method Feasible Extreme (or Corner) Points Algorithm for Solving Linear Programming Problems Basic Algorithm of Solving Linear Programming Problems Simplex Method Basic Algebraic Concepts and Setup Algebra of Simplex Method Summary of the Sin1plex Method Artificial Variable Methods Big-M Method Two-Phase Method lntetpreting the Sin1plex Tableau Optimal Solution Status of Resources Per-Unit Worth of Resources (Shadow Prices) Cases of the Simplex Method Application Degeneracy Unbounded Solution Alternative Optimal Solutions Nonexisting Feasible Solutions Duality of the Simplex Method Definition of Dual Problem Primal-Dual Relationship Matrix Version of Simplex Tableau New Methods for Solving Linear Programming Problems 90 References 90 Problems 91 Appendix 3A 95 4 Dynamic and Nonlinear Programming with Applications to Hydrosystems Dynamic Programming Elements of Dynamic Programming Model Operational Characteristics of Dynamic Programming Discrete Differential Dynamic Programming Matrix Algebra for Nonlinear Progran1ming Unconstrained Nonlinear Optimization Basic Concepts One-Dimensional Search 132

4 CONTENTS XÌ Multivariable Methods Constrained Optimization: Optimality Conditions Lagrange Multiplier Kuhn-Tucker Conditions Constrained Nonlinear Optimization: Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG) Method Basic Concepts Generai Algorithms and Basis Changes The Reduced Gradient Optimality Conditions for GRG Method Constrained Nonlinear Optimization: Penalty Function Methods Constrained Nonlinear Optimization: Projected Lagrangian Method Nonlinear Prograrnming Codes 156 References 157 Problems Uncertainty and Reliability Analysis of Hydrosystems Review of Probability Theory Terminology Rules of Probability Computations Random Variables and Their Distributions Statistica! Properties of Random Variables Commonly Used Probability Distributions Binomia! Distribution Poisson Distribution Norma! Distribution Lognormal Distribution Analysis of Uncertainties Reliability Computations Using Load-Resistance Analysis Direct Integration Method Methods Using Safety Margin and Safety Factor Fìrst-Order Second-Moment Methods Dynamìc (Tìme-Dependent) Reliability Model Reliability Using Ttme-to-Failure Analysis Failure Densìty Function Failure Rate and Hazard Functìon Mean-Tìme-to-Failure Repair Density Function, Repair Rate, and Mean-Timeto-Repaìr Mean-Time-between-Failure and Mean-Time-between-Repair Avai1ability and Unavailability Reliability Analysis of Simple Systems Optìmization of Reliabilìty Reliability Design with Redundancy Reliability Apportionment Chance-Constrained Models Right-Hand Side Coefficients Random Technological Coefficients Random Right-Hand Side and Technological Coefficients Random 207 References 208 Problerns 209

5 xii CONTE.'ITS P art 2 Water Supply Engineering and Management 6 Water Demand Forecasting Water Use and Forecasting Forecasting Municipal and Industriai Water Use Classification of Methods Generai Form of Models Data Availability Regression Models for Water Use Forecasting Regression Concepts for Water Use Forecasting Linear Regression Accuracy of Regression Models Generai Comments about Regression Analysis Cascade Models for Water Use Forecasting Detrending Deseasonalization Autoregressive Filtering Climatic Regression Application for Monthly Water Use Forecast Econometrie Models for Water Demand Forecasting Simultaneous Equations Reduced Form Equations Estimation of Structural Parameters IWR-Main Water Use Forecasting System 262 References 266 Problems Surface Water Systems Surface Water Reservoir Systems Storage-Firm Yield Analysis for Water Supp1y Finn-Yie1d Analysis Procedures Optimization Procedures for Firm Yield Analysis Storage-Firm Energy Analysis Concepts of Water Supply for Power Generation Determination of Firm Energy Reservoir Simu1ation Operation Rules Conservation Sirnulation HEC-5 Sirnulation Mode! Optimal Sizing and Operation of a Single Mu1tip1e-Purpose Reservoir Optimal Sizing and Operation of Multip1e-Purpose Reservoir Systems Reservoir Sizing and Operation under Hydro1ogic Uncertainty: LP Models Chance-Constrained Models Using Linear Decision Rules Yield Mode1s Reservoir Operation under Hydro1ogic Uncertainty: DP Models 317 References 320 Problems 321

6 CONTENTS xiii 8 Groundwater Systems Basic Principles of Groundwater Systems Groundwater Hydrology Groundwater Movement Types of Groundwater Quantity Management Models Simulation of Groundwater Systems Development of Governing Equations Finite Difference Equations Hydraulic Management Models: Embedding Approach Steady-State One-Dimensional Problems for Confined Aquifers Steady-State Two-Dimensional Model for Confined Aquifers Transient One-Dimensional Problem for Confined Aquifers Steady-State Two Dimensiona! Prob1em for Unconfined Aquifers Policy Evaluation and Allocation Models: Response Matrix Approach Groundwater Management Model: Optimal Control Approach 347 References 348 Problems Water Distribution Systems Description and Purpose of Water Distribution Systems Water Distribution System Components Pumps and Pumping Hydraulics Network Simulation Conservation Laws Network Equations Network Simulation Algorithms Optimization Models for Design of Branched Systems Optimization Models for Design of Looped Systems Generai Problems A Linear Prograrnming Mode! Water Distribution System Design Mode! Water Distribution System Reliabil.ity Component Reliability System Reliability 380 References 383 Problems 384 Part 3 Water Excess Engineering and Management lo Hydrology and Hydraulics for Water Excess Management Floodp1ain Hydrologic and Hydraulic Analysis Storm Hydrograph Detemùnation: Rainfali-Runoff Analysis Hydrologic Losses Unit Hydrograph Approach U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center, HEC Continuous Simulation Models Hydrologic Analysis: Reservoirs and Rivers Hydrologic Reservoir Routing

7 XiV CONTENTS Hydrologic River Routing 10.4 Hydrologic Frequency Analysis for Floodplain Detennination l Flood Flow Frequency Analysis U.S. Water Resources Council Guidelines l 0.5 Floodplain Elevations: Water Surface Profile Detennination 10.6 Hydraulics of Flood Forecasting: Distributed Routing 10.7 U.S. National Weather Service Models for River Routing References Problems Urban Stormwater Management Systems Urban Stonnwater Management System Storm Sewer Design Design Philosophy Rational Method Hydrograph Design Method Minimum Cost Design of Stonn Sewer Systems Reliability Ana1ysis of Storm Sewers Reliability Computation Risk-Safety Factor Re1ationship Stonnwater Detention Urbanization Effects and Stormwater Detention Selection of Detention Pond SÌZC}-Modified Rational Method Hydrograph Design Method Minimum Cost Design of Regional Stonnwater Detention Systems References Problems Floodplain Management Systems 12.1 Flood-Control Altematives Structural A1tematives Nonstructural Measures 12.2 Flood Damage Estimation Damage Re1ationships Expected Damages 12.3 HEC Flood Damage Analysis Package 12.4 Optimization Mode! for Planning Flood Contro! 12.5 Optimal Selection of Flood-Control Altematives 12.6 Risk-Based Design 12.7 Risk-Based Design of Highway Drainage Structures Design of Roadway Crossing Structures Expected Damages and Objective Function References Prob1ems

8 CONTE~TS XV 13 Operation of Surface Water Systems for Flood Control Rea!-Ti me Flood Forecasting Concepts Real-Time Data Collection Systems for River-Lake Systcms Flood Early Warning System for Urban Areas Flood-Forecasting Models River-Reservoir Opcration for Flood Contro! 50 l Reservoir Opcration Modc!s 50! Lower Colorado River Flood Forecasting System Optimization Models for Dcveloping Operation Policies Optimization Models for Real-Time Operation of Reservoirs Optimization Mode! Using Hydrologic Routing Optimization Mode! Using Hydraulic Routing 5 12 References 514 Problems 515 Author Index 51 9 In de x 523