Distributed Energy Resources

Transcription

1 Distributed Energy Resources William F Tyndall Duke Energy Commercial Strategic Initiatives 1

2 United States Energy Challenges Aging power plants and distribution infrastructure Climate change Changing customer expectations Globally 1 billion live without access to electricity Energy reliability is challenge in many countries Climate goals require substantial decarbonization of electricity supply 2

3 Working definition of distributed energy landscape Energy Extractors Decentralized energy resources Energy efficiency Services and solutions to optimize total energy consumption for the same level of services Decentralized generation Integration Ability to design, engineer, develop, install and manage all the energy needs of a customer (includes micro-grid) Generating electricity 'behind the meter' and on-site where energy is used Demand management Lowering or shifting electric usage of end-use customers at peak or times of dispatch Distributed storage Storing energy/electricity, 'behind the meter' and onsite typically paired with DG 3

4 Distributed energy: ~$15B market in 2012, to grow to ~$35B by 2020 Revenue $B Decentralized Energy Market 1 (Base case), (E) % (E) Potential upside of $10-15B above base case Integration Distributed Storage Demand Management Energy Efficiency Solar PV - Residential Solar PV - Commercial Key assumptions Continued smart grid expansion and penetration of advanced metering Net metering in place in key PV markets through 2020 Growth in dynamic pricing models No explicit changes in regional DR expansions ITC at 30% through 2016, 10% to 2020 Energy prices broadly aligned with Duke forecast Moderate econ growth 1. Considering only a subset of decentralized energy markets Sources: EV Power. LBNL, NERC. EIA AEO. Navigant, BCG Analysis 4

5 Distributed energy: 35% capacity growth over last 3 years US cumulative capacity growth GW % 21% 3% 35% of capacity growth 28% 50 38% 0 Total EE DR Decentralized Generation Utility Scale Renewables Traditional Generation (gross adds) 5

6 Declining Solar Prices Still Beating Analyst Expectations 6

7 In many states, commercial PV expected to reach retail parity by 2017 Average electricity price for commercial in 2012 in $/kwh Note: actual electricity price by customer has large range based on consumption level, TOU, etc. HI Iso-LCOE curves at a PV system price 1 of AK VT MA NY NJ ME MO MI DC AL SC NH DE TN MT RI MS MD FL WI NE OH IN NC LA IA WV PA VA ND IL MN WA KY ID AR SD OR CO KS OK WY TX UT CA AZ NM NV 4.0 $/Wp (2012) 2.80 $/Wp (2012 w/ 30% ITC) 1.8 $/Wp (2017) 1.62 $/Wp (2017 w/ 10% ITC) Generation capacity in GW (2010) Commercial grid parity by 2017 at current electricity prices Solar irradiation on optimally inclined plane in kwh/m 2 /year 1. For roof-mounted system 100 kwp; year end prices; does not account for accelerated depreciation benefit Note: Assumptions: Performance ratio of PV system 85%; lifetime 20 years; discount rate 7%; annual OPEX as percentage of initial CAPEX 1%; assumed electric prices grow at inflation Source: Solar Electricity Handbook (online); IEA Electricity Information 2011; LBNL; NREL database; BCG analysis 7

8 Global PV market growing as more countries reach retail parity Average electricity price for households in 2012 in $/kwh (excluding VAT) 0.40 Hawaii 0.35 Germany Netherlands Finland UK Belgium Sweden Slovakia Czech Poland Italy Spain Hungary Japan Greece France New York Romania Turkey Note: actual economics depends on price for PV generated energy (e.g. FiT, net metering) Australia California South Africa Iso-LCOE curves at a PV system price 1 of 2.9 $/Wp Norway South Korea Bulgaria China India Texas 1.9 $/Wp 1.6 $/Wp ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 Size of electricity market in TWh (2012) Residential grid parity by 2013 at current electricity prices Solar irradiation on optimally inclined plane in kwh/m 2 /year 1. For a 10kW roof-mounted system; mature PV market; price excl. VAT Assumptions: Performance ratio of PV system 85%; lifetime 20 years; discount rate 8%; annual OPEX as percentage of initial CAPEX 1%; exchange rate 1.00 = $1.30 Source: Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, NREL; PVGIS; BCG analysis 8

9 Storage for Commercial Customers Demand management software combined with storage hardware Automated demand reduction Solar smoothing Grid support 9

10 Advanced Energy Management Landscape Hardware HVAC Building Controls HVAC Controls Enterprise Software & Services Enterprise Energy Information Lighting Lighting Controls Supply Advisory Virtual Audits On-site DER Demand Response Aggregator Utility Bill Management 10

11 Chorriaca Hybrid Wind-Diesel System 100 kw of new wind generation Hybrid system with existing 120kW diesel generation One to three turbines, depending on economics of final contractor proposals Annual fuel savings: 58,386 liters

12 Mini hydro at Coyuco-Cochico Diversion weir Transmission line Intake Settling basin Road Bridge Penstock Power house Height (m) 24.1 Flow (l/s) 600 Penstock net diam.(mm) 470 Hydraulic loss (m) 2.44 Net Height (m) 21.6 Generator efficiency 90% Turbine efficiency 75% Power output (kw) 86 Annual generation (MWh) Annual fuel saved (lts) ,796 Diversion weir Intake Settling basin and head tank Penstock and spillway Power house Turbine and Generator Gabion weir, height=2m Side intake type with a sluice gate Open type, length=9.8m, width=5m, with spillway for excess water Reinforced PVC pipe k6, diameter= 500mm, length=160 m. Underground 30m 2 pre-assembled concrete. Located 1620 masl, 2 m above average water level. Cross-flow turbine (Mitchell-Banki). Impeller diameter 400 mm. Synchronous generator 400 VCA brushless with AVR Transmission line 13.2 kva Lenght=3.7 km and 2 transformers 04/13.2 kv 200 kva Transmission line Mini-hydro

13 Distributed Energy Benefits United States Lower carbon emissions Solar and energy efficiency = zero CO2 emissions One study: Major California city could decrease carbon emissions by 70% by growing DER by 2% per year System benefits Reduced transmission losses Grid Support Greater resiliency Reduced Consumer Costs Customer Choice 13