Development and Impact of New Refrigerants on the HVAC Market. Draft Report Alfonso Oliva 2012

Transcription

1 Development and Impact of New Refrigerants on the HVAC Market Draft Report Alfonso Oliva 2012

2 Content Table of Content Introduction and Definitions Page 3 HVAC/R Refrigerant Types Page 5 Scenarios, and market sizes of refrigerants Page 7 Legislation and Standards: The EU Case Page 19 Phase out and alternatives comparison Page

3 A Global Scenario: a BSRIA Analysis Improvements in efficiency of AC/refrigeration equipment and better refrigerant handling and disposal will lead to a reduction of total refrigerant demand. HCFC will be banned and their use phased out globally by After a peak, the HFC consumption will decline primarily in Europe and US. HC will replace HCFC and HFC but only when there will be commercially viable applications available. The average use per system of HC is lower than HFC equivalent. Natural refrigerant use will remain limited to niche applications for safety reasons. Consumption Natural Refrigerants Time (years) Source: BSRIA 3 3

4 BSRIA Historical Analysis of Refrigerant Use in Europe Europe - Total Refrigerant Sales (2010) 98,000 t 69,000 t 29,000 t 42,000 t (est.) ~12,000 t * ~15,000 t * Refrigeration Stationary A/C & heat pumps Mobile air conditioning Foams Other HFC SF6 PFC & other halocarbons Domestic refrigeration Room A/C Car A/C One component foam Aerosols Electrical equipment Semiconductors & photovoltaics Commercial refrigeration Variable refrigerant flow & packages Bus A/C PU foams & XPS Metered dose inhalers Car tyres Primary aluminium production Industrial refrigeration Chillers Truck A/C Solvents Soundproof windows Halocarbon production Road transport refrigeration Heat pumps Ship A/C Fire extinguishers Sport shoes soles Ship refrigeration (fisheries) Rail A/C Aluminium & magnesium casting Sources: * Source: BSRIA 4 4

5 BSRIA Historical Analysis of Refrigerant Use in Europe (HVACR+MAC): A Case Study of Effects of Legislation Geographical Area covered: HVAC Automotive Total Europe: 69,000 tonnes Source: France Germany Italy UK Spain Sweden Turkey Other Europe Refrigeration France Germany Italy Spain UK Russia Czech Republic Poland Other Europe France Germany Italy UK Other Europe Source: BSRIA 5 NB: excludes refrigerant charges made outside Europe 5

6 BSRIA Historical Analysis of Refrigerant Use in Europe (MAC): A Case Study of Effects of Legislation Source: BSRIA NB: excludes refrigerant charges made outside Europe MAC directive demands that since 1st January 2011 every new car model-platform to use refrigerant in the AC system with GWP lower than 150 The current R134A refrigerant can be used in new cars only until 1st January 2017, when it will be compulsory to use refrigerant with GWP lower than 150 Honeywell and Du Pont hold the patent to HFO1234yf (GWP = 4), which has been chosen by the car industry to replace R134A For HFO1234yf, Du Pont uses the Opteon and Honeywell markets it under the Solstice brand name There is much resistance to the HFO1234yf, anti-campaigners claiming it is dangerous and that flammable 6 6

7 The EU F-Gas The F-gas and the MAC (automotive) directives of the EU, first approved in 2006, go in the direction of reducing the emissions caused by HFC gases in the Member States. This sets the efforts towards the Kyoto Protocol compliance for the period between 2008 and In 2011, a public consultation with the stakeholders in the industry was undertaken to frame the policy towards F gases and alternative refrigerants within the next years. Also, in late 2011, the EU published a report on the implementation of the F-gas directive, reporting the following results: The F-Gas two lines of action Reducing the use of F gases when environmentally superior alternatives are available. Reducing leakages where alternative environmentally superior alternatives are not available. Progresses so far: A) Labelling. Labelling of F refrigerant facilitating responsible installation, maintenance and disposal of gases has been successfully implemented with very few cases of non-compliance. The process has been promoted by the industry on voluntary bases. B) Training of handlers. The training requirements have only partially been adopted by the Member states. Only 50% of the HVAC/R handlers have been trained. C) Leak containment measures: Only few States have made satisfactory moves towards the strict application of leak containment moves. Compliance is currently below 50%. D) Recovery. The process of recovery/reclaim for F gases with recycle/destroy wherever applicable as suggested in the directive on F-Gas has only been partially accelerated. No certain data is available in this area but there is the suggestion that there is space for additional effort to be made towards gas recovery. E) Reporting: The reporting requirements for F gases produced, imported or exported from the EU (import or export of pre-charged equipment does not apply) have been respected. 7 7

8 The EU F-Gas Although the directive has not been fully implemented by all of the Member States (countries such as Italy, Portugal and Greece are still lagging behind), the F-Gas regulation have achieved a reduction in the use of HFC in the EU27. The reduction in demand resulting by the introduction of the F-Gas directive is illustrated by a model, reported beside, which shows the trend in demand for HFC in two scenario: one (red) without measures and one with measures. The full application of the F-Gas directive even in the countries that are currently lagging behind would determine falls in consumption of HFC up to From 2025 onwards, the demand would flatten Source: EU and would not be further affected by the current regulation. The EU has a commitment to the reduction of global warming emissions by 80-90% compared to 1990 by The current legislation (F-gas) would not be sufficient to achieve that reduction. Some market based initiatives, such as the European Emission Trading System (EETS), aim at introducing schemes which provide economic incentives to businesses for lowering carbon emissions. So far, the EETS is limited to some specific industrial sectors. Some EU member states implemented the F-Gas directive with stricter parameters on minimal and maximum charge, leakage control and maintenance, reporting and certification. These are France, The Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, Sweden, Germany, Hungary, Slovenia. Denmark and Slovenia also introduced market based tax schemes. 8 8

9 Hydrocarbon (HC) Refrigerants Advantages Disadvantages Suitable for retrofit of HCFC/HFC No ODP and negligible GWP Good performance as substitutes of HCFC and HFC Compatible with copper Mixable with mineral oil Economical: on average one third of the average charge (HFC) is needed Energy efficiency: around 20% savings as a result of low molecular mass and vapour pressure High flammability and stricter safety procedures. Cannot be used in large systems if in proximity of heat source or in absence of proper ventilation. HC are not suitable for centrifugal compressors. R&D under way to create a blend, which is compatible with these applications. HC cannot be uses in flooded evaporator systems using a mechanical float system Potentially higher cost for maintenance, training, transportation due to flammability and toxicity issues Lubricants containing silicon and silicate cannot be used in conjunction with HCs 9 9

10 R32 Challenge Compare to R410A, R32 has a lower GWP of 550 (1,980 for R410A) + Reduced system pipe size and increased efficiency + Smaller refrigerant charge However: - mildly flammable - High pressure R

11 R32 Introduction Nov 2012: Daikin residential units now sold in Japan with R32 R32 is favoured by the Japanese government (METI) and Japanese AC manufacturers (Hitachi, Fujitsu General, Panasonic and Toshiba) have endorse this new refrigerant R32 has better efficiency than R410A, and reduces cost of system design Compressor manufacturers: Danfoss Emerson Climate Technologies Hitachi China: Midea & Gree have certified products for R32 Indonesia to adopt R32 as a replacement for R22 by 2015 Feb 2013: Daikin launched RAC with R32 in India NB. Neither Mitsubishi Electric nor MHI have joined R32 products! 11 11