VMD0017 Estimation of Uncertainty for REDD+ Project Activities (X-UNC)

Transcription

1 VCS Module VMD0017 Esimaion of Uncerainy for REDD+ Projec Aciviies (X-UNC) Version March February 2017

2 Module developed by: Revision o include idal weland resoraion and conservaion aciviies (version 2.2 of his module) prepared by Silvesrum Climae Associaes and Resore America s Esuaries Page 2

3 Table of Conens 1 SOURCES SUMMARY DESCRIPTION OF THE MODULE DEFINITIONS AND ACRONYMS APPLICABILITY CONDITIONS PROCEDURES Par 1: Uncerainy in REDD Baseline Esimaes Par 2: Uncerainy in WRC Baseline Esimaes Par 3: Uncerainy Ex Pos in he REDD Projec Scenario Par 4: Uncerainy in WRC Projec Scenario Esimaes Par 5: Toal Error in he REDD+ Projec Aciviy Par 6 Implicaions for Projec Accouning DATA AND PARAMETERS REFERENCES Page 3

4 1 SOURCES This module is one of numerous modules ha consiue VCS mehodology VM0007 REDD+ Mehodology Framework (REDD-MF). This module uses he laes versions of he following modules and ools: Carbon pool modules: VMD0001 Esimaion of carbon socks in he above- and belowground biomass in live ree and non-ree pools (CP-AB) VMD0002 Esimaion of carbon socks in he dead-wood pool (CP-D) VMD0003 Esimaion of carbon socks in he lier pool (CP-L) VMD0004 Esimaion of carbon socks in he soil organic carbon pool (mineral soils) (CP-S) VMD0005 Esimaion of carbon socks in he long-erm wood producs pool (CP-W) Baseline modules: VMD0006 Esimaion of baseline carbon sock changes and greenhouse gas emissions from planned deforesaion and planned degradaion (BL-PL) VMD0007 Esimaion of baseline carbon sock changes and greenhouse gas emissions from unplanned deforesaion (BL-UP) VMD0042 Esimaion of baseline soil carbon sock changes and greenhouse gas emissions in pealand reweing and conservaion projec aciviies (BL-PEAT) VMD00XX Esimaion of baseline carbon sock changes and greenhouse gas emissions in idal weland resoraion and conservaion projec aciviies (BL-TW) Emissions modules: VMD0013 Esimaion of greenhouse gas emissions from biomass and pea burning (E BPB) VMD0014 Esimaion of emissions from fossil fuel combusion (E-FFC) CDM ool Esimaion of direc N 2O emissions from nirogen applicaion (E-NA) Monioring modules: VMD0046 Mehods for monioring of soil carbon sock changes and greenhouse gas emissions and removals in pealand reweing and conservaion projec aciviies (M-PEAT) VMD00XX Mehods for monioring of carbon sock changes and greenhouse gas emissions in idal weland resoraion and conservaion projec aciviies (M-TW) Tools: Page 4

5 CDM ool Esimaion of carbon socks and change in carbon socks of rees and shrubs in A/R CDM projec aciviies 2 SUMMARY DESCRIPTION OF THE MODULE This module allows for esimaing uncerainy in he esimaion of emissions and removals in REDD and WRC projec aciviies. Uncerainy in he esimaion of emissions and removals from ARR projec aciviies is reaed in he CDM ool Esimaion of carbon socks and change in carbon socks of rees and shrubs in A/R CDM projec aciviies. The module may also be used for projec planning purposes. Use of he module while planning he projec can assure he monioring is of sufficien inensiy o minimize uncerainy deducions. The purpose of he mehodology is for calculaing ex ane and ex pos a precision level and any deducion in credis for lack of precision following projec implemenaion and monioring. The module assesses uncerainy in baseline esimaions and in esimaions of projec sequesraion, emissions and leakage. 3 DEFINITIONS AND ACRONYMS In addiion o he definiions se ou in VCS documen Program Definiions and mehodology REDD+ -MF, he following acronyms apply o his mehodology: DP RRD Fores area ha is cleared per addiional person(s) enering he populaion Reference region for projecing rae of deforesaion 4 APPLICABILITY CONDITIONS This module is mandaory when using mehodology REDD+ -MF. I is applicable for esimaing he uncerainy of esimaes of emissions and removals of CO2-e generaed from REDD and WRC projec aciviies. The module focuses on he following sources of uncerainy: Deerminaion of raes of deforesaion and degradaion Uncerainy associaed wih esimaion of socks in carbon pools and changes in carbon socks Uncerainy associaed wih esimaion of pea emissions Uncerainy in assessmen of projec emissions Where an uncerainy value is no known or canno be simply calculaed, a projec mus jusify ha i is using an indispuably conservaive number and an uncerainy of 0% may be used for his componen. Guidance on uncerainy a precision arge of a 95% confidence inerval half-widh equal o or less han 15% of he recorded value mus be argeed. This is especially imporan in erms of projec planning for measuremen of carbon socks; sufficien measuremen plos should be included o achieve his precision level across he measured socks. Page 5

6 5 PROCEDURES This module provides procedures o deermine he following parameers: NER REDD+_ERROR Cumulaive uncerainy for he REDD+ (WRC and REDD) projec aciviies up o year * (percen) Adjused-NER REDD+ Toal ne GHG emission reducions of he REDD+ projec aciviies up o year * adjused o accoun for uncerainy ( CO2e) Esimaed carbon emissions and removals arising from AFOLU aciviies have uncerainies associaed wih he measures/esimaes of: area or oher aciviy daa, carbon socks, biomass growh raes, expansion facors, and oher coefficiens. I is assumed ha he uncerainies associaed wih he esimaes of he various inpu daa are available, eiher as defaul facors given in IPCC Guidelines (2006), IPCC GPG-LULUCF (2003), exper judgmen, 1 or esimaes based on sound saisical sampling. Alernaively, (indispuably) conservaive esimaes can also be used insead of uncerainies, provided ha hey are based on verifiable lieraure sources or exper judgmen. In his case he uncerainy is assumed o be zero. However, his module provides a procedure o combine uncerainy informaion and conservaive esimaes resuling in an overall ex-pos projec uncerainy. Planning o Diminish Uncerainy I is imporan ha he process of projec planning consider uncerainy. Procedures including sraificaion (see Module X-STR), and he allocaion of sufficien measuremen plos can help ensure ha low uncerainy in carbon socks resuls and ulimaely full crediing can resul. I is good pracice o apply his module a an early sage o idenify he daa sources wih he highes uncerainy o allow he opporuniy o conduc furher work o diminish uncerainy. 5.1 Par 1: Uncerainy in REDD Baseline Esimaes Sep 1: Assess Uncerainy in Projecion of Baseline Rae of Deforesaion or Degradaion Table 1 below provides he parameers and corresponding modules relevan o his sep. Table 1: Sep 1 Parameers and Modules A BSL,RR,unplanned BL-UP D% planned,i, BL-PL I is here assumed ha here is zero uncerainy in baseline rae of deforesaion or degradaion where numbers are equal o a long-erm average (BL-UP), are based on acual deforesaion plans (BL-PL) or are derived from PRA (BL-DFW). In hese specific cases, assume: 1 Jusificaion should be supplied for all values derived from exper judgmen Page 6

7 Uncerainy BSL,RATE = 0 In all oher scenarios he uncerainy in rae shall be a componen of ne projec uncerainy. A. Planned Deforesaion: where rae of deforesaion is derived from measuremens of proxy areas (see Module BL-PL): The uncerainy shall be equal o he 95% confidence inerval as a percenage of he mean of he area deforesed in each proxy (D% pn) divided by he number of years over which deforesaion occurred in each proxy (Yrs pn). B. Unplanned deforesaion: where deforesaion rae is derived using regression equaions of pas deforesaion rae versus ime, or deforesed area versus populaion (populaion driver approach), he uncerainy inroduced by his analysis mus be incorporaed (see Module BL-UP). Uncerainy in he baseline rae of deforesaion (Uncerainy BSL,RATE) is calculaed referencing he 95% confidence limis of he regression model, calculaed using sandard regression analysis echniques. 2 For he value of he referenced independen variable (ime or populaion) in year, he half-widh of he 95% confidence inerval for he dependen variable (prediced deforesaion) is calculaed as a percen of he dependen variable (modeled) value. Uncerainy canno be less han zero. Uncerainy in he baseline rae is calculaed as follows: UncerainyBSL,RATE, = Half-widh of he 95% confidence inerval for ABSL,RRD,unplanned, / ABSL,RRD,unplanned, (1) Uncerainy BSL,RATE, Uncerainy in he baseline rae of deforesaion in year (%) A BSL,RRD,unplanned, Projeced area of unplanned baseline deforesaion in he RRD in year (ha) Noe ha for ime year, he value of he independen variable referenced is he value for he enire RRD (or RRD subse). For he populaion driver approach, he relevan value is oal populaion (saic approach) in year or oal change in populaion (dynamic approach) in year -1, summed across all componen populaion census unis. If muliple subses of he RRD are used, as in he populaion driver approach where each RRD j may have is own regression, oal uncerainy in he baseline rae is calculaed as follows: N M i ) 2 N M j=1 i A BSL,i,j,unplanned, Uncerainy BSL,RATE, = j=1 (Uncerainy BSL,RATE,,j A BSLi,j,unplanned, Uncerainy BSL,RATE, Uncerainy in he baseline rae of deforesaion in year (%) Uncerainy BSL,RATE,,j Uncerainy in he baseline rae of deforesaion in year for RRD subse j (%) (2) 2 Eg, Hamilon, L.C Regression wih Graphics. Duxbury Press. Belmon, California. 363 pp. Page 7

8 A BSL,i,j,unplanned, j i Projeced area of unplanned baseline deforesaion in census uni i member of RRD subse j in year (ha) 1, 2, 3, ime elapsed since he sar of he projec aciviy (years) 1, 2, 3, N subses of RRD (ses of census unis wih separae DP parameers) 1, 2, 3, M populaion census unis Uncerainy is hen propagaed across years o produce an esimae of cumulaive uncerainy up o year *: N M j=1 ) 2 Uncerainy BSL,RATE, = =1 (Uncerainy BSL,RATE, i A BSL,i,j,unplanned, N M =1 j=1 i A BSL,i,j,unplanned, Uncerainy BSL,RATE,* Cumulaive uncerainy in he baseline rae of deforesaion up o ime year * (%) Uncerainy BSL,RATE, Uncerainy in he baseline rae of deforesaion in year (%) A BSL,i,j,unplanned, i Projeced area of unplanned baseline deforesaion in census uni i member of RRD subse j in year (ha) 1, 2, 3, * ime elapsed since he sar of he projec aciviy (years) 1, 2, 3, M populaion census unis Sep 2: Assess Uncerainy of Emissions and Removals in Projec Area in Baseline Scenario Table 2 below provides he parameers and corresponding modules relevan o his sep. Table 2: Sep 1 Parameers and Modules for REDD (3) C AB-ree C BB-ree C DW C LI C SOC C WP frp, E biomassburn E FC N 2O direc-n CP-AB CP-AB CP-D CP-L CP-S CP-W E-BPB E-FFC E-NA Uncerainy should be expressed as he 95% confidence inerval half widh as a percenage of he mean. Uncerainy is firs propagaed across pools wihin sraa. Noe ha where he REDD aciviy is conduced in combinaion wih WRC, he belowground biomass and soil organic carbon pools are omied here (reaed as an emission source from pea in Par 2 below). The uncerainy is calculaed as follows: Page 8

9 U REDD BSL,SS,i = n (U REDD BSL,SS,i,pool# E REDD BSL,SS,i,pool# ) 2 1 n 1 E REDD BSL,SS,i,pool# (4) U REDD_BSL,SS,i U REDD_BSL,SS,i,pool# E REDD_BSL,SS,i,pool# i Percenage uncerainy in he combined carbon socks and greenhouse gas sources in he REDD baseline case scenario in sraum i (%) Percenage uncerainy for carbon socks and greenhouse gas sources in he REDD baseline casescenario in sraum i (%) Carbon sock or GHG sources in he REDD baseline casescenario ( CO2e) 1, 2, 3 M sraa (uniless) Uncerainy across combined sraa mus be assessed as follows: Uncerainy REDD BSL,SS = M (U REDD BSL,SS,i E REDD BSL,SS,i ) 2 i=1 Uncerainy REDD-BSL,SS U REDD-BSL,SS,i E REDD-BSL,SS,,i i M i=1 E REDD BSL,SS,i Toal uncerainy in he combined carbon socks and greenhouse gas sources in he REDD baseline casescenario (%) Percenage uncerainy in he combined carbon socks and greenhouse gas sources in sraum i in he REDD baseline casescenario (%) Sum of combined carbon socks and GHG sources in he REDD baseline casescenario ( CO2-e) 1, 2, 3, M sraa (uniless) (5) Page 9

10 5.1.3 Sep 3: Esimae Toal Uncerainy in REDD Baseline Scenario Rae uncerainy is incorporaed as follows: Uncerainy REDD BSL, = Uncerainy BSL,RATE, 2 + Uncerainy REDD BSL,SS 2 (6) UncerainyREDD-BSL,* Cumulaive uncerainy in REDD baseline scenario up o ime year * (%) UncerainyREDD-BSL,RATE,* Cumulaive uncerainy in he baseline rae of deforesaion up o ime year (%) UncerainyREDD-BSL,SS Toal uncerainy in he combined carbon socks and greenhouse gas sources in he REDD baseline casescenario (%) 1, 2, 3, * ime elapsed since he sar of he projec aciviy (years) 5.2 Par 2: Uncerainy in WRC Baseline Esimaes :Uncerainy in Baseline Esimaes for Pealand Table 3 below provides he parameers and corresponding modules relevan o his secion. Table 3: Par 2 Parameers and Modules for Pealand E proxy-co2,i, E proxy-ch4,i, E peadich-co2,i, E peadich-ch4,i, E peaburn-bsl,i, BL-PEAT BL-PEAT BL-PEAT BL-PEAT BL-PEAT and E-BPB Sources of uncerainy in he baseline scenario accouned for WRC aciviies on pealand include uncerainy around regression models, or discree defaul facors, relaing CO2 and CH4 emissions from pea and diches o chosen proxies, and uncerainy around esimaes of emissions from burning of pea. I is assumed ha area and sraa bounds, A i and A dich-bsl,i,, are known exacly when complying wih requiremens in Modules X-STR and BL-PEAT and ha uncerainy around esimaes of proxy parameers is zero when complying wih requiremens of Module BL-PEAT. Where regression models are used o esimae emissions from oxidaion of pea from proxy parameers, uncerainy is calculaed by referencing he 95% confidence limis of he regression model, calculaed using sandard regression analysis echniques. For he value of he referenced proxy in year, he halfwidh of he 95% confidence inerval for he dependen variable (emissions) is calculaed o produce parameers U *. Page 10

11 Where emissions are esimaed applying a discree defaul facor, uncerainy, U *, is simply calculaed by referencing he 95% confidence limi of he defaul facor esimae, or assigned as zero if an indispuably conservaive value is used. Noe ha each parameer U * is in unis of CO2e yr -1 (no percen) and represens error in year propagaed across sraa as follows: U, = M i=1 (A i U,i, ) 2 (7) U *, Uncerainy in parameer * in year ( CO2e yr -1 ) U *,i, A i i Uncerainy in parameer * in sraum i in year, equal o he half widh of he 95% confidence inerval ( CO2e ha -1 yr -1 ) Toal area of sraum i (ha) 1, 2, 3, M sraa (uniless) 1, 2, 3, ime elapsed since he projec sar (years) * = parameers E proxy-co2,, E proxy-ch4,, E peadich-co2,, E peadich-ch4, and E peaburn-bsl,. Toal uncerainy in he WRC baseline for pealand in year is hen calculaed as follows: Uncerainy PEAT BSLWRCBSL, = U Eproxy CO2, 2 + U Eproxy CH4, 2 + U Epeadich CO2, 2 + U Epeadich CH4, 2 + U Epeaburn BSL, 2 (8) UncerainyWRC_BSLPEAT-BSL, Uncerainy in he WRC baseline casescenario for pealand in year ( CO2e) U Eproxy-CO2, U Eproxy-CH4, U Epeadich-CO2, U Epeadich-CH4, U Epeaburn-BSL, Uncerainy in parameer E proxy-co2, (emission of CO2 in relaion o he chosen proxy in year ) ( CO2e yr -1 ) Uncerainy in parameer E proxy-ch4, (emission of CH4 in relaion o he chosen proxy in year ) ( CO2e yr -1 ) Uncerainy in parameer E peadich-co2, (emission of CO2 from dich and open waer in year ) ( CO2e yr -1 ) Uncerainy in parameer E peadich-ch4, (emission of CH4 from dich and open waer in year ) ( CO2e yr -1 ) Uncerainy in parameer E peaburn-bsl, (GHG emissions from burning of pea in he base line scenario in year ) ( CO2e yr -1 ) 1, 2, 3, ime elapsed since he projec sar (years) Uncerainy is hen propagaed across years o produce an esimae of cumulaive uncerainy up o year * as follows: Page 11

12 Uncerainy PEAT BSLWRCBSL, = (9) UncerainyWRC_BSLPEAT-BSL,* UncerainyWRC_BSLPEAT-BSL, =1 Uncerainy 2 PEAT WRC BSL BSL, =1 GHG PEAT BSLWRC BSL, VMD0017, Version 2.12 Cumulaive uncerainy in he WRC baseline casescenario for pealand up o year * (%) Uncerainy in he WRC baseline casescenario for pealand in year ( CO2e) GHGBSL-PEAT-BSLWRC, Ne GHG emissions in he WRC baseline scenario for pealand in year ( CO2e) 1, 2, 3, * ime elapsed since he projec sar (years) Uncerainy in Baseline Esimaes for Tidal Weland (excluding pealand) For pealand areas wihin idal welands, use he procedures se ou in Secion above. Table 4 below provides he parameers and corresponding modules relevan o his secion. Table 4: Parameers and Modules for Tidal Weland GHG BSL-soil-CO2,i, Deducion alloch GHG BSL-soil-CH4,i, GHG BSL-soil-N2O,i, BL-TW BL-TW BL-TW BL-TW Follow he general guidance provided in Secion 5.2.1, while subsiuing BL-TW for BL-PEAT and noing ha parameers U * involve GHG BSL-soil-CO2,i,, Deducion alloch, GHG BSL-soil-CH4,i, and GHG BSL-soil-N2O,i,. Toal uncerainy in he WRC baseline for idal weland in year is hen calculaed as follows: Uncerainy TW BSL, = UGHG BSL soil CO2, 2 + UDeducion alloch 2 + UGHG BSL soil CH4, 2 + UGHG BSL soil N2O, 2 (10) UncerainyTW-BSL, Uncerainy in he WRC baseline scenario for idal weland in year ( CO2e) UGHG BSL-soil-CO2, UDeducion alloch Uncerainy in parameer GHG BSL-soil-CO2, (CO2 emissions from he SOC pool in he baseline scenario in year ) ( CO2e yr -1 ) Uncerainy in parameer Deducion alloch (Deducion from CO2 emissions from he SOC pool o accoun for he percenage of he carbon sock ha is derived from allochhonous soil organic carbon) ( CO2e yr -1 ) UGHG BSL-soil-CH4, CH4 emissions from he SOC pool in he baseline scenario in year ) ( CO2e yr -1 ) UGHG BSL-soil-N2O, Uncerainy in parameer GHG BSL-soil-N2O, (N2O emissions from he SOC pool in he baseline scenario in year ) ( CO2e yr -1 ) 1, 2, 3, * ime elapsed since he projec sar (years) Page 12

13 Uncerainy is hen propagaed across years o produce an esimae of cumulaive uncerainy up o year * as follows: Uncerainy TW BSL, = =1 Uncerainy BSL TW, 2 UncerainyTW-BSL,* UncerainyTW-BSL, =1 GHG BSL TW, Cumulaive uncerainy in he WRC baseline scenario for idal weland up o year (%) Uncerainy in he WRC baseline scenario for idal weland in year ( CO2e) GHGTW-BSL, Ne GHG emissions in he WRC baseline scenario for idal weland in year ( CO2e) 1, 2, 3, * ime elapsed since he projec sar (years) Toal Uncerainy in WRC Baseline Esimaes Uncerainies in baseline esimaes for pealand and idal welands are combined as follows: (11) Uncerainy WRC BSL, = Uncerainy PEAT BSL, 2 + Uncerainy TW BSL, 2 (12) UncerainyWRC-BSL,* Cumulaive uncerainy in WRC baseline scenario up o year * (%) UncerainyPEAT-BSL,* Cumulaive uncerainy in he WRC baseline scenario for pealand up o year * (%) UncerainyTW-BSL,* Cumulaive uncerainy in he WRC baseline scenario for idal weland up o year * (%) 1, 2, 3, * ime elapsed since he sar of he projec aciviy (years) 5.3 Par 3: Uncerainy Ex Pos in he REDD Projec Scenario Table 4 below provides he parameers and corresponding modules relevan o his secion. Table 4: Par 3 Parameers and Modules for REDD C AB-ree C BB-ree C DW C LI C SOC C WP CP-AB CP-AB CP-D CP-L CP-S CP-W Page 13

14 E biomassburn E FC N 2O direc-n E-BPB E-FFC E-NA Area of deforesaion or degradaion in he projec scenario should be racked direcly using he same accuracy assessmen crierion as used in he baseline (accuracy of 90% or more see Module BL-UP). Uncerainy is firs propagaed across pools wihin sraa. Noe ha where he REDD aciviy is conduced in combinaion wih WRC, he belowground biomass and soil organic carbon pools are omied here (reaed as an emission source from pea in Par 4 below): U REDD WPS,SS,i = n (U REDD WPS,SS,i,pool# E REDD WPS,SS,i,pool# ) 2 1 n 1 E REDD WPS,SS,i,pool# (13) U REDD-WPS,SS,i U REDD-WPS,SS,i,pool# E REDD-WPS,SS,i,pool# i Percenage uncerainy in he combined carbon socks and greenhouse gas sources in he REDD projec scenario in sraum I (%) Percenage uncerainy for carbon socks and greenhouse gas sources in he REDD projec scenario in sraum i (%) Carbon sock or GHG sources in sraum i in he REDD projec scenario ( CO2) 1, 2, 3, M sraa (uniless) Uncerainy across combined sraa is assessed as follows: Uncerainy REDD WPS = M (U REDD WPS,SS,i E REDD WPS,SS,i ) 2 i=1 M i=1 E REDD WPS,SS,i UncerainyREDD-WPS Toal uncerainy in he REDD projec scenario (%) U REDD-WPS,SS,i E REDD-WPS,SS,,i i Percenage uncerainy in he combined carbon socks and greenhouse gas sources in sraum i in he REDD projec scenario (%) Sum of combined carbon socks and GHG sources muliplied by he area of sraum i (A i) in he REDD projec scenario ( CO2e) 1, 2, 3, M sraa (uniless) Where no ex pos (re-)measuremens of carbon pools or GHG sources have been made, ie, uncerainy from hese sources is already included in Uncerainy REDD-BSL,*, Uncerainy REDD-WPS is se equal o zero. 5.4 Par 4: Uncerainy in WRC Projec Scenario Esimaes :Uncerainy in Projec Scenario Esimaes for Pealand Table 5 provides he parameers and corresponding modules relevan o his secion. (14) Page 14

15 Table 5: Par 3 Parameers and Modules for Pealand E proxy-co2,i, E proxy-ch4,i, E peadich-co2,i, E peadich-ch4,i, E peaburn-wps,i, M-PEAT M-PEAT M-PEAT M-PEAT E-BPB Sources of uncerainy in he projec scenario accouned for in WRC aciviies on pealand include uncerainy around regression models, or discree defaul facors, relaing CO2 and CH4 emissions from pea and diches o chosen proxies, and uncerainy around esimaes of emissions from burning of pea. Fire reducion premiums assigned using Module M-PEAT are demonsrably conservaive and no uncerainy from his parameer is accouned. I is assumed ha area and sraa bounds, A i and A dich-wps,i,, are known exacly when complying wih requiremens in Modules X-STR and M-PEAT and ha uncerainy around esimaes of proxy parameers is zero when complying wih monioring procedures requiremens of Module M-PEAT. Where regression models are used o esimae emissions from oxidaion of pea from proxy parameers, uncerainy is calculaed by referencing he 95% confidence limis of he regression model, calculaed using sandard regression analysis echniques. For he value of he referenced proxy in year, he halfwidh of he 95% confidence inerval for he dependen variable (emissions) is calculaed o produce parameers U *. Where emissions are esimaed applying a discree defaul facor, uncerainy, U *, is simply calculaed by referencing he 95% confidence limi of he defaul facor esimae, or assigned as zero if an indispuably conservaive value is used. Noe ha each parameer U * is in unis of CO2e yr -1 (no percen) and represens error in year propagaed across sraa as follows: U, = M i=1 (A i U,i, ) 2 (15) U *, Uncerainy in parameer * in year ( CO2e yr -1 ) U *,i, A i i Uncerainy in parameer * in sraum i in year, equal o he half widh of he 95% confidence inerval ( CO2e ha -1 yr -1 ) Toal area of sraum i (ha) 1, 2, 3, M sraa (uniless) 1, 2, 3, * ime elapsed since he projec sar (years) Page 15

16 * = parameers E proxy-co2,, E proxy-ch4,, E peadich-co2,, E peadich-ch4, and E peaburn-wps,. Toal uncerainy in he WRC projec scenario for pealand in year is hen calculaed as follows: Uncerainy WRCWPS PEAT WPS, = U 2 Eproxy CO2, + U 2 Eproxy CH4, + U 2 Epeadich CO2, + U 2 2 Epeadich CH4, + U Epeaburn WPS, (16) Uncerainy WRCUncerainy PEAT_WPS, Uncerainy in he WRC projec scenario for pealand in year ( CO2e) GHG PEATWPS-WRC, U Eproxy-CO2, U Eproxy-CH4, U Epeadich-CO2, U Epeadich-CH4, U Epeaburn-WPS, i Ne GHG emissions in he WRC projec scenario for pealand in year ( CO2e) Uncerainy in parameer E proxy-co2, (emission of CO2 in relaion o he chosen proxy in year ) ( CO2e yr -1 ) Uncerainy in parameer E proxy-ch4, (emission of CH4 in relaion o he chosen proxy in year ) ( CO2e yr -1 ) Uncerainy in parameer E peadich-co2, (emission of CO2 from dich and open waer in year ) ( CO2e yr -1 Uncerainy in parameer E peadich-ch4, (emission of CH4 from dich and open waer in year ) ( CO2e yr -1 ) Uncerainy in parameer E peaburn-bsl, (GHG emissions from burning of pea in he projec scenario in year ) ( CO2e yr -1 ) 1, 2, 3, M WPS sraa in he projec scenario (uniless) 1, 2, 3, * ime elapsed since he projec sar (year) Uncerainy is hen propagaed across years o produce an esimae of cumulaive uncerainy up o year * as follows: Uncerainy WRCWPS PEAT WPS, = (17) UncerainyPEATWRC_WPS,* UncerainyPEATWRC_WPS, GHGWPS-PEATWRC, =1 Uncerainy 2 WRC WPS PEAT WPS, =1 GHG WPS PEAT WRC, Cumulaive uncerainy in he WRC projec scenario for pealand up o year (%) Uncerainy in he WRC projec scenario for pealand in year ( CO2e) Ne GHG emissions in he WRC projec scenario for pealand in year ( CO2e) 1, 2, 3, * ime elapsed since he projec sar (year) Page 16

17 5.4.2 Uncerainy in Projec Scenario Esimaes for Tidal Weland (excluding pealand) For pealand areas wihin idal welands, use he procedures se ou in Secion above. Table 6 provides he parameers and corresponding modules relevan o his secion. Table 6: Parameers and Modules for Tidal Weland GHG WPS-soil-CO2,i, Deducion alloch GHG WPS-soil-CH4,i, GHG WPS-soil-N2O,i, M-TW M-TW M-TW M-TW Follow he general guidance provided in Secion 5.4.1, while subsiuing M-TW for M-PEAT and noing ha parameers U * involve GHG WPS-soil-CO2,i,, Deducion alloch, GHG WPS-soil-CH4,i, and GHG WPS-soil-N2O,i,. Toal uncerainy in he WRC baseline for idal weland in year is hen calculaed as follows: Uncerainy TW WPS, = UGHG WPS soil CO2, 2 + UDeducion alloch, 2 + UGHG WPS soil CH4, 2 + UGHG WPS soil N2O, 2 (18) UncerainyTW-WPS, UGHG WPS-soil-CO2,i, UDeducion alloch UGHG WPS-soil-CH4, UGHG WPS-soil-N2O,i, Uncerainy in he WRC baseline scenario for idal weland in year (CO2e) Uncerainy in parameer GHG BSL-soil-CO2, (CO2 emissions from he SOC pool in he projec scenario in year ) ( CO2e yr -1 ) Uncerainy in parameer Deducion alloch (Deducion from CO2 emissions from he SOC pool o accoun for he percenage of he carbon sock ha is derived from allochhonous soil organic carbon) ( CO2e yr -1 ) Uncerainy in parameer GHG WPS-soil-CH4, (CH4 emissions from he SOC pool in he projec scenario in year ) ( CO2e yr -1 ) Uncerainy in parameer GHG WPS-soil-N2O, (N2O emissions from he SOC pool in he projec scenario in year ) ( CO2e yr -1 ) 1, 2, 3, * ime elapsed since he projec sar (years) Uncerainy is hen propagaed across years o produce an esimae of cumulaive uncerainy up o year * as follows: Uncerainy TW WPS, = =1 Uncerainy WPS TW, 2 UncerainyTW-WPS,* =1 GHG WPS TW, (19) Cumulaive uncerainy in he WRC projec scenario for idal weland up o year (%) Page 17

18 UncerainyTW-WPS, VMD0017, Version 2.12 Uncerainy in he WRC projec scenario for idal weland in year ( CO2e) GHGTW-WPS, Ne GHG emissions in he WRC baseline scenario for idal weland in year ( CO2e) 1, 2, 3, * ime elapsed since he projec sar (years) Toal Uncerainy in WRC Projec Scenario Esimaes Uncerainies in projec scenario esimaes for pealand and idal welands are combined as follows.: Uncerainy WRC WPS, = Uncerainy PEAT WPS, 2 + Uncerainy TW WPS, 2 (20) UncerainyWRC-WPS,* Cumulaive uncerainy in WRC projec scenario up o year (%) UncerainyPEAT-WPS,* UncerainyTW-WPS,* Cumulaive uncerainy in he WRC projec scenario for pealand up o year (%) Cumulaive uncerainy in he WRC projec scenario for idal weland up o year (%) 1, 2, 3, * ime elapsed since he sar of he projec aciviy (years) Page 18

19 Par 5: Toal Error in he REDD+ Projec Aciviy Calculaion of leakage is conservaive in all insances and herefore uncerainy in leakage is no considered here. Toal projec uncerainy is herefore equal o he combined uncerainy in baseline and projec esimaes for he REDD and WRC aciviies: NER REDD+ERROR = (Uncerainy REDDBSL, C BSL REDD, ) 2 + (Uncerainy REDDWPS C WPS REDD, ) 2 + (Uncerainy WRCBSL, GHG BSL WRC, ) 2 + (Uncerainy WRC_WPS, GHG WPS WRC, ) 2 1 ( ) C BSL REDD, + C WPS REDD, +GHG BSL WRC, +GHG WPS WRC, (21) NERREDD+_ERROR Cumulaive uncerainy for he REDD+ (REDD and WRC) projec aciviies up o year * (%) UncerainyREDD_BSL,* Cumulaive uncerainy in REDD baseline scenario up o year (%) UncerainyWRC_BSL,* Cumulaive uncerainy in he WRC baseline casescenario up o year (%) UncerainyREDD_WPS Toal uncerainy in he REDD projec scenario (%) UncerainyWRC_WPS,* Cumulaive uncerainy in he WRC projec scenario up o year (%) GHGBSL-WRC,* GHGWPS-WRC,* C BSL-REDD,* C WPS-REDD,* Ne GHG emissions in he WRC baseline scenario up o year ( CO2e) Ne GHG emissions in he WRC projec scenario up o year ( CO2e) Ne GHG emissions in he REDD baseline scenario up o year * ( CO2e Ne GHG emissions in he REDD projec scenario up o year * ( CO2e) 1, 2, 3, * ime elapsed since he projec sar (year)

20 Par 6 Implicaions for Projec Accouning The allowable uncerainy in his mehodology REDD+ -MF is +/- 15% of NER REDD+ a he 95% confidence level. Where his precision level is me hen no deducion should resul for uncerainy. Where uncerainy exceeds 15% of NER REDD+ a he 95% confidence level hen he deducion shall be equal o he amoun ha he uncerainy exceeds he allowable level. The adjused value for NER REDD+ o accoun for uncerainy shall be calculaed as: Adjused_NER REDD+ = NGR ARR + (NER REDD + NER WRC ) (100% NER REDD+ERROR + 15%) (22) Adjused_NERREDD+ Toal ne GHG emission reducions of he REDD+ projec aciviies up o year * adjused o accoun for uncerainy ( CO2e) NERREDD Toal ne GHG emission reducions of he REDD projec aciviy up o year * ( CO2e) NERWRC Toal ne GHG emission reducions of he WRC projec aciviy up o year * ( CO2e) NERREDD+_ERROR NGRARR Cumulaive uncerainy for he REDD+ (REDD and WRC) projec aciviies up o year * (%) Toal ne GHG removals of he ARR projec aciviy up o year * ( CO2e) 6 DATA AND PARAMETERS Daa / Parameer Daa uni Descripion A BSL,RRD,unplanned, ha Projeced area of unplanned baseline deforesaion in he RRD in year Equaions 1 Source of daa Value applied Jusificaion of choice of daa or descripion of measuremen mehods and procedures applied Purpose of Daa Commens Module BL-UP See Module BL-UP Calculaion of uncerainy

21 Daa / Parameer Daa uni Descripion A BSL,i,j,unplanned, ha Projeced area of unplanned baseline deforesaion in census uni i member of RRD subse j in year Equaions 2, 3 Source of daa Value applied Jusificaion of choice of daa or descripion of measuremen mehods and procedures applied Purpose of Daa Commens Module BL-UP See Module BL-UP Calculaion of uncerainy Daa / Parameer Daa uni Descripion E REDD_BSL SS,i, pool# CO2e Carbon sock or GHG sources (eg, rees, dead wood, soil organic carbon, emission from ferilizer addiion, emission from biomass burning ec.) in he REDD baseline casescenario Equaions 4 Source of daa Value applied Jusificaion of choice of daa or descripion of measuremen mehods and procedures applied Purpose of Daa Commens The erms denoing significan carbon socks, GHG sources or leakage emissions from baseline modules (BL-DFW, BL-PL, BL- UP) used o calculae ne emission reducions. See relevan modules Calculaion of uncerainy Baseline socks and sources are esimaed ex ane for each baseline period Daa / Parameer U REDD_BSL,SS,i,pool# Daa uni % Descripion 4 Page 21

22 Equaions Source of daa Value applied Jusificaion of choice of daa or descripion of measuremen mehods and procedures applied Purpose of Daa Commens Percenage uncerainy (expressed as 95% confidence inerval as a percenage of he mean where appropriae) for carbon socks and greenhouse gas sources in he REDD baseline casescenario (1, 2 n represen differen carbon pools and/or GHG sources) Calculaions arising from field measuremen daa Uncerainy in pools derived from field measuremen wih 95% confidence inerval calculaed as he sandard error of he averaged plo measuremens in each sraum muliplied by he value for he 95% confidence level. For wood producs he uncerainy should be he confidence inerval around he volume of imber exraced from he fores. For emission sources conservaive parameers should be used sufficien o allow he uncerainy o be se as zero. Calculaion of uncerainy Baseline socks and sources are esimaed ex ane for each baseline period Daa / Parameer U *,i, Daa uni CO2e ha -1 yr -1 Descripion Uncerainy in parameer * in sraum i in year * = parameers E proxy-co2,, E proxy-ch4,, E peadich-co2,, E peadich-ch4, and E peaburn-bsl,. Equaions 7, 8, 12, 13 Source of daa Value applied Jusificaion of choice of daa or descripion of measuremen mehods and procedures applied Where regression models are used o esimae emissions from oxidaion of pea from proxy parameers, uncerainy is calculaed by referencing he 95% confidence limis of he regression model, calculaed using sandard regression analysis echniques. For he value of he referenced proxy in year, he half-widh of he 95% confidence inerval for he dependen variable (emissions) is calculaed o produce parameers U *. Where emissions are esimaed applying a discree defaul facor, uncerainy, U *, is simply calculaed by referencing he 95% confidence limi of he defaul facor esimae, or assigned as zero if an indispuably conservaive facor is used. Page 22

23 Purpose of Daa Commens Calculaion of uncerainy Daa / Parameer Daa uni Descripion E REDD,WPS,SS,i, Pool# CO2e Carbon sock or GHG sources (eg, rees, down dead wood, soil organic carbon, emission from ferilizer addiion, emission from biomass burning ec.) in he projec casescenario Equaions 10 Source of daa Value applied Jusificaion of choice of daa or descripion of measuremen mehods and procedures applied Purpose of Daa Commens The erms denoing significan carbon socks, GHG sources or leakage emissions used in calculaing ne emission reducions from he following relevan modules: CP-AB, CP-D, CP-L, CP-S, CP-W, E-BB, E-FFC, E-NA. See relevan modules Calculaion of uncerainy The ex-ane esimaion shall be derived direcly from he esimaions originaing in he relevan modules: CP-AB, CP-D, CP-L, CP-S, CP-W, E-BB, E-FFC, E-NA. Daa / Parameer U REDD,WPS,SS,i,pool# Daa uni % Descripion Percenage uncerainy (expressed as 95% confidence inerval as a percenage of he mean where appropriae) for carbon socks and greenhouse gas sources in he projec casescenario (1, 2 n represen differen carbon pools and/or GHG sources) Equaions 10 Source of daa Value applied Jusificaion of choice of daa or descripion of measuremen mehods and procedures applied Calculaions arising from field measuremen daa Uncerainy in pools derived from field measuremen wih 95% confidence inerval calculaed as he sandard error of he averaged plo measuremens in each sraum muliplied by he value for he 95% confidence level. For wood producs he uncerainy should be he confidence Page 23

24 inerval around he volume of imber exraced from he fores. For emission sources conservaive parameers should be used sufficien o allow he uncerainy o be se as zero. Purpose of Daa Commens Calculaion of uncerainy Ex ane, he uncerainy in he projec carbon socks and sources shall be equal o he calculaed baseline uncerainy Daa / Parameer D% pn Daa uni % Descripion Equaions Source of daa Value applied Jusificaion of choice of daa or descripion of measuremen mehods and procedures applied Purpose of Daa Commens Percen of deforesaion in land parcel 3 pn, ec., of a proxy area as a resul of planned deforesaion as defined in his module Uncerainy in baseline rae Module BL-PL See Module BL-PL Calculaion of uncerainy Daa / Parameer Daa uni Descripion Equaions Source of daa Value applied Jusificaion of choice of daa or descripion of measuremen mehods and procedures applied Purpose of Daa Yrs pn years Number of years over which deforesaion occurred in land parcel pn in proxy area Uncerainy in baseline rae Module BL-PL See Module BL-PL Calculaion of uncerainy 3 Parcels are a uni of land area. A sraum may conain many parcels. Page 24

25 Commens 7 REFERENCES None. Page 25

26 DOCUMENT HISTORY Version Dae Commen v1.0 3 Dec 2010 Iniial version V July 2012 This module was updaed o revise he procedure for calculaing uncerainy for he BL-UP (VMD0007) module. Also, uncerainy is now calculaed cumulaively in parallel wih he procedure for calculaing he associaed parameers. v2.1 9 Mar 2015 This module was updaed o accoun for WRC aciviies. Page 26