Emissions and mitigation potentials up to 2020: Analysis with the AIM/Enduse[Global

Transcription

1 Global CH and 4 F-gas F Emissions and mitigation potentials up to 2020: Analysis with the AIM/Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] ] model The 2nd Meeting of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants 6-8 June 2006 Hotel Mir, Moscow, Russia National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan Tatsuya HANAOKA 2006/6/20 1

2 Outline of Presentation 1. Overview of AIMAsia Asia-Pacific Integrated Model 2. CH 4 emission in 21 global regions Driving forces and BaU scenario Reduction potentials 3. CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs emissions in 21 global regions BaU scenario based on the Montreal Protocol Future emission trends 4. Marginal Abatement Costs 5. Appendix: Long-term CH 4 emission trends in other global models. Emissions Scenarios Database for IPCC AR4 - A Review of post-tar Mitigation Scenarios 2006/6/20 2

3 AIM team activities AIM = Asia-Pacific Integrated Model AIM Model Development Strategic Database AIM/ Energy/Technology/Country A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level AIM/Material One An environmenteconomy CO2 interacted and material country CGE model with balance, model with interface material with environmental balance and recycling technology process modules model Emission Intensity of SO 2 in China AIM/Bottom-up AIM/End -use A bottom-up Country technology Based & Technology land use model Model for Asia-Pacific region Environmental Environ- burden mental Burden Environmental Industry Green Purchase Industry Consumer Recycle Technology assessment Environment Fund Wastes Environmental Burden Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Technology needs Research on new technologies AIM Family AIM/ AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model AIM/Trend Land use Socio-economic indicator Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Impact on food demand AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium-type World Economic world economic Model model Adaptation strategy Future economic trend Future environmental trend Korea Developed as a communication China platform in order to construct Thailand Asia -pacific regional environmental outlook supported with multi -regional environment-economic CGE model India Japan Institution, Management, Technology, Adaptation Database Strategy Option Base Model Base Scenario Assessment Index Base 2006/6/20 3

4 AIM/Enduse model Bottom-up optimization model with detail technology selection framework Enduse[Country] Enduse[Global] Enduse[Japan], Enduse[China]. Enduse[India], Enduse[Thailand], Enduse[Indonesia] Target Regions : 21 geographical world regions Time Horizon : ( now expanding upto 2030/2050) Target Gas : CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6, CFC, HCFC (nowconsidering SO2, NOx,, PM, BC/OC) Target Sectors : multiple sectors (Power generation sector / Industry sector / Residential sector / Commercial sector / Transport sector / Agriculture sector / CH4 & N2O emissions sector / F-gas F emissions sector ) AIM/CGE AIM/Macro-economic 2006/6/20 4

5 CH 4 emission in 21 global regions - Application of AIM/Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] /6/20 5

6 Target Emission Sources CH4 emission sector in 21 world regions Source categories Coal mining Natural gas systems Manure management Enteric fermentation Rice cultivations Municipal Solid Waste Driving forces Hard coal production &extraction from underground mines Brown coal production &extraction from surface mines Natural Gas Production/Distribution Livestock population (Cattle, Buffalo, Sheep, Goats, Camels, Horses, Mules, Asses, Swine, Chickens, Ducks, Turkeys) Livestock population (Cattle, Buffalo, Sheep, Goats, Camels, Horses, Mules, Asses, Swine) Paddy area 2006/6/20 6

7 Framework of CH 4 emission sector in AIM/Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] Socio-economic scenario AIM/Macroeconomic Statistical data set on driving forces - International statistics - Results from models AIM/CGE Energy -price - constraints AIM/Enduse[Global] Emission factors Driving forces Energy Database - Energy type - Energy price - Energy constraints - CO2 emission factor CH 4 emissions CH4 emission sector - coal mining - natural gas systems - manure management - enteric fermentation - rice cultivations Technology Database - Technology price - Energy consumption - Service supplied -Share - Lifetime 2006/6/20 7

8 Statistical data on driving forces Coal Natural gas Share of hard coal and brown coal in 2000 in 21 regions data sourcesurvey of Energy Resources, WEC 2001 Rate of coal extraction change (2020( 2020/2000) data source IEA World Energy Outlook Consumption of natural gas in 2000 in 21 regions data sourceiea Energy Balances Rate of gas production&consumption change (2020( 2020/2000) data source IEA World Energy Outlook Livestock Paddy Livestock population in 2000 in 21 regions Paddy area in 2000 in 21 regions data sourcefaostat Rate of livestock population change (2020( 2020/2000) Rate of rice production change (2020( 2020/2000) data sourceinternational Food Policy Research Institute, /6/20 8

9 Emission factors Source categories Source of Emission factors Coal mining IPCC Second Assessment Report [1996] Natural gas Manure management Enteric fermentation Paddy IPCC Second Assessment Report [1996] note) mean value in each region and each category IPCC Second Assessment Report [1996] note) Cattle =Dairy Non Dairy/ 2 IPCC Second Assessment Report [1996] note1) Cattle =Dairy Non Dairy/ 2 note2) use the data at Temperature15-20 IPCC Second Assessment Report [1996] note) mean value in each region and each category Note) when lack of data in some regions, then compensation for it by the average data in regions which characteristics 2006/6/20are similar to the corresponding regions. 9

10 Abatement technologies Source categories Coal production Natural gas production and distribution Manure management Enteric fermentation Paddy Sector Energy- fugitive emissions (solid) Energy- fugitive emissions (oil and gas) Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Technologies Degasification systems to natural gas pipeline, Degasification systems to power generator to produce electricity, Ventilation system + IC engine to produce electricity, Ventilation system + catalytic oxidizer to produce electricity Use of instrument air, low bleed pneumatic devices Covered anaerobic digester, plug flow digester, complete mix digester Partial replacement of roughages with concentrates Midseason drainage, replace urea with ammonium sulphate, alternate flooding/drainage 2006/6/20 10

11 Outline of model simulation Target Year: 2020 Discount rate: (1) 5% (private & public) (2) 33%(private), 10% (public) Simulation cases Reference case (technology-frozen case) i.e.) the case under existing technology options with the same technical and economic characteristics as in 2000 Advanced technologies case i.e.) the market selections of realistic advanced technologies Reduction potentials and abatement costs 2006/6/20 11

12 Estimated emissions in 21 regions under Reference Scenario upto Rice cultivations M anure management Enteric ferm entation Naturalgas system C oalmining Rice cultivations M anure management Enteric ferm entation Naturalgas system C oalmining in JPN CHN IND IDN KO R THA XSE XSA XME AUS NZL CAN USA XE15 XE10 RUS ARG BRA XLM XAF XRW 2006/6/20 12 in 2000 Estimated em issions [10 6 t-c O 2 eq] JPN CHN IND IDN KOR THA XSE XSA XM E AUS NZL CAN USA XE15 XE10 RUS ARG BRA XLM XAF XRW Estimated em issions [10 6 t-c O 2 eq]

13 Global Emissions and Reduction Potentials CH4 Emission (Mt-CO2Eq) 10,000 9,000 8,609 (-6%) 8,000 +2,436 (-9%) (-24%) (-24%) 7,000 (-27%) (-25%) 6,174 6,000 5,000 Reduction 4,000 Emission 3,000 2,000 1, Frozen DR=Discount rate AC = Abatement Cost (US$/tCO2) 2020 DR= 5% 2020 DR= 33% 2006/6/20 13 AC < 0 AC < 100 AC < 300 AC < 0 AC < 100 AC < 300

14 Regional Reduction Potentials 2,500 2, Developed CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2) 1,500 1, Developing Others Africa Middle East Latin America Russia China 0 0 < US$0/t-CO2 < US$100/t-CO2 < US$300/t-CO2 2006/6/20 * Reduction DR=5% rate = 10% 14

15 Remaining future work 1) Use the new emission factors reported in the latest IPCC Inventory guideline 2) Reconsider how to estimate future trends of driving forces. 3) Expand the target emission sources especially, Municipal Solid Waste 4) Update technology database 2006/6/20 15

16 CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs emissions in 21 global regions - Application of AIM/Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] /6/20 16

17 Gaps in International Frameworks Montreal Protocol[1987] ODP CFCs 0.61 HCFCs Halons 0.6 Carbon tetrachlorode 310 1,1,1Trichloroethane 1.1 Methyl bromide 0.1 Kyoto Protocol [1997] ODP HFCs 0 Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide PFCs SF GWP GWP regulation Production Consumption No regulations on emissions regulation Emissions 2006/6/20 17

18 Target Emission Sources CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs emission sector in 21 world regions Source categories Refrigerant Aerosol Foam solvent By-product Others Service Refrigerator, Air conditioner for motor vehicle, Air conditioner for motor vehicle, Air conditioner for houses, Central air conditioner equipment, Condensing unit, Refrigerating display case Aerosol Propellants, Fire Protection Foam Blowing Agents for thermal insulation Solvents By-product of HCFC /6/20 18

19 Inventory of Global Consumption Major Data source UNEP Ozone Secretariat (2002) AFEAS (2002) EU(2002), Japan(2002), and so on Problems in the UNEP reports Lack of accuracy of original data: : incomplete and erroneous data etc. Aggregated in the unit of ODP-ton, but not on a weight basis odify UNEP database by use of data of AFEAS, Japan, EU etc nalyze time-series trends of enduse categories and substances ansform 2006/6/20 the unit from ODP-t to a weight basis & tons of 19 CO t to a weight basis & tons of CO 2 eq

20 New Inventory of Global Consumption in CO 2 equivalent Fluorocarbon C onsum ption [10 6 t-c O 2 eq] HFC s (Developed) HC FC s (Developing) HC FC s (Developed) CFCs (Developing) CFCs (Developed) com parison to C O 2 em issions 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% C om parison to CO 2 em issions in % year Note) 2006/6/20 The level of global CO 2 emissions in 1990 is [t-co 20 2 ]

21 Reference Emissions Scenario Consumption patterns - CFCs&HCFCs: regulations of the Montreal Protocol -HFCs: BaU(alternatives for CFCs and HCFCs) Emission patterns - Emissions functions Prediction of advanced alternatives for HFCs - not considered in the Reference scenario 2006/6/20 21

22 Phase-out schedules of production and consumption under the MP Phase-out of consumption [%] 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% CFCs Non-Article 5 CFCs Article 5 HCFCs Non-Article 5 HCFCs Article 5 phase-out schedules are not fixed yet [year] CFCs, HCFCs will be consumed and emitted in the developing countries without any measures. 2006/6/20 22

23 Emissions Function The time delays between consumption and emission for each category and each end use Category refrigerant aerosol propellant foam solvent others Assume an average lifetime of 10 year, giving a total service lifetime of 20 years. Assume 50% release in the year of manufacture and the rest in the year following Assume 50% release in the year of manufacture and a constant rate of loss (3.66%/yr) from the accumulated Assume 83% release in the year of manufacture and the rest in the year following Assume 83% release in the year of manufacture and the rest in the year following 2006/6/20 23

24 Estimated emissions in 21 regions under Reference Scenario upto HFCs HCFCs CFCs JPN CHN IND IDN KOR THA XSE XSA XM E AUS NZL CAN USA XE15 XE10 RUS ARG BRA XLM XAF XRW 2006/6/20 24 Estim ated em issions [10 6 t-c O 2 eq] JPN CHN IND IDN KOR THA XSE XSA XM E AUS NZL CAN USA XE15 XE10 RUS ARG BRA XLM XAF Estim ated em issions [10 6 t-c O 2 eq] XRW HFCs HCFCs CFCs in 2020 in 2010

25 Estimated Emissions & Comparison to other studies Estimated em issions [10 6 t-c O 2 eq] 2500 CFCs [UNEP] CFCs [SRES] 2000 CFCs [REF] HCFCs [UNEP] HCFCs [SRES] HCFCs [REF] 1500 HFCs [SRES_B2] HFCs [REF] [year] 2006/6/20 25

26 Remaining future work 1) Reconsider reference scenario due to the acceleration of the implementation of alternative & abatement measures. 2) Update technology database 2006/6/20 26

27 Reduction potentials and Marginal Abatement Costs - Application of AIM/Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] /6/20 27

28 Comparison of marginal abatement costs curves about CH 4 emission Marginal abatement cost (US$/t-CO2 eq) $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ , DR= NA (USEPA Technical Support Document for Multi-Pollutant Analysis) 2020, DR= NA (USEPA Technical Support Document for Multi-Pollutant Analysis) 2010, RD= NA (MERGE) 2010, DR=5% (USEPA Non-CO2 Gases Economic Analysis and Inventory) 2020, DR=5% (USEPA Non-CO2 Gases Economic Analysis and Inventory) 2010, DR=10% (USEPA Non-CO2 Gases Economic Analysis and Inventory) 2020, DR=10% (USEPA Non-CO2 Gases Economic Analysis and Inventory) 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) -$ /6/20 CH 4 reduction in world regions (Mt-CO 2 eq) 28

29 Comparison of marginal abatement costs curves about F-gas F emission Marginal abatement cost (US$/t-CO2 eq) $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ , DR= NA (USEPA Technical Support Document for Multi-Pollutant Analysis) 2020, DR= NA (USEPA Technical Support Document for Multi-Pollutant Analysis) 2010, RD= NA (MERGE) 2010, DR=5% (EMF21 original data) 2020, DR=5% (EMF21 original data) 2010, DR=10% (EMF21 original data) 2020, DR=10% (EMF21 original data) 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) -$20 F-gas reduction in world regions (Mt-CO eq) 2006/6/20 29 Note) Our study includes not only CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs but also PFCs and SF6 in this figure

30 Appendix: Long-term CH 4 emission trends in global models - Emissions Scenarios Database for IPCC AR4: A Review of post-tar Mitigation Scenarios /6/20 30

31 Background and Previous Work Background: Emissions scenarios vary depending on various socio-economic development pathways Morita and Matsuoka started to develop emissions scenarios database since 1992, to contribute for IPCC Assessment Previous results of the Database: Nakicenovic, and Morita et al (1998) 428 scenarios of global and regional GHG emissions from 176 literature sources Rana, and Morita (2000) 75 scenarios of global and regional GHG emissions from 25 literature sources utilized for SRES utilized for TAR 2006/6/20 31

32 Development of Database Outline of scenarios of interest: Subject matter: New mitigation scenarios since TAR Regional scale: Global, regional and national level analysis Temporal scale: Scenarios with horizons beyond 2030 Gas classifications: all anthropogenic GHGs CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6, CO, NMVOC, SOx, NOx and Black Carbon etc Sector classifications: Multi-sector scenarios Call for Scenarios was sent to more than one hundred researchers all over the world 2006/6/20 32

33 Global CH 4 emission trends in Emissions Scenarios Database GlobalCH4 Em issions [M tch4] 1,200 1,100 1, Post-TAR all scenarios /6/

34 CH 4 emission trends in Emissions Scenarios Database - Post-TAR reference scenarios - GlobalCH4 Em issions [MtCH4] 1,200 1,100 1, /6/ Mid-half range 426 ~ 752 [Mt-CH4]

35 CH 4 emission trends in Emissions Scenarios Database - Post-TAR mitigation scenarios - GlobalCH4 Em issions [MtCH4] 1,200 1,100 1, Mid-half range 295 ~ 490 [Mt-CH4] 2006/6/

36 Conclusions Future CH 4 emission varies by region and source, by baseline, by discount rate, by cost data, etc. Global CH 4 emissions are estimated as 6174 in 2000 and 8609 in 2020, in Mt-CO2 eq, under a reference case. As to reduction potentials in 2020, CH 4 emissions can be reduced around 24 % from baseline under 100 US$/t-CO 2 marginal abatement cost. Based on the latest Emissions Scenarios Database for IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, CH 4 emissions upto 2100 varies depending on model characteristics. The mid-half range becomes from 426 to 752 and from 426 to 752 in Mt-CH 4 under reference case and intervention case, respectively. 2006/6/20 36

37 Thanks! 2006/6/20 37

38 2006/6/20 38

39 Geographical coverage Region Code 1) Japan JPN 2) China CHN 3) India IND 4) Indonesia IDN 5) Korea KOR 6) Thailand THA Asia regions 7) Other South-east Asia XSE in detail 8) Other South Asia XSA 9) Middle East XME 10) Australia AUS 11) New Zealand NZL 12) Canada CAN 13) USA USA 14) EU-15 in Western Europe XE15 15) EU-10 in Eastern Europe XE10 16) Russia RUS 17) Argentine ARG 18) Brazil BRZ 19) Other Latin America XLM 20) Africa XAF 2006/6/20 21) Rest of the World XRW 39

40 Discount rate Reason of a 33% discount rate: As private industries take into account high investment risk for energy conserving technologies, a payback period of 3-3 years is usually assumed. For example, the discount rate corresponding to 3-years 3 payback is about 33% based on the assumption of 30 years lifetime for steel plants. 2006/6/20 40

41 Logic of technology selection (1) Replacement, new demands Logic of technology selection Service demand Technology Initial cost Running cost for X years Technology B New demands Replacement Introduction in year X+1 Extention of pay back period Initial cost Running cost for X years Technology Technology B X X+1 Year Carbon tax 2006/6/20 41

42 Logic of technology selection (2) Refurbishment of existing technology Logic of technology selection Service demand Technology Initial cost Running cost for X years Technology B Cost for refurbishment Running cost for X years (after refurbishment) Target for refurbishment in year X+1 X X+1 Year 2006/6/20 42

43 Logic of technology selection (3) Substitution of existing technology Logic of technology selection Service demand Technology Initial cost Running cost for X years Technology B Initial cost Running cost for X years Target for substitution in year X+1 X X+1 Year 2006/6/20 43

44 MAC curve for CH 4 in example in India - Marginal Cost (US$/tCO2eq) (20) Alterna te Flooding and Drainage Mid Season Drainage Replace Urea with Amm onium Sulphate Complete m ix digester for electricity Plug flow digester for electricity Covered anaerobic digester for electricity Coal Bed Methane Ventilation O xidizer for Heat Coal Bed Methane Degasification for Natural Gas Pipeline Injection Use of Low Bleed Pneumatic Devices Use of Instrument Air Landfill gas to direct gas use Coa l Bed Methane Degasification for Electricity Coal Bed Methane Ventilation for Electricity Landfill gas to electricity (40) 2006/6/20 CH4 Reduction (MtCO2eq) 44

45 Radiative Forcing Species Source: Hansen et al: (2001) 2006/6/20 45

46 Environmental Impacts Species Chemical Atmospheric Global Warming Ozone Depletion Formula Lifetime[year] Potential Potential CFC-11 CFCl CFC-12 CF 2 Cl CFC-13 CClF CFC-113 C 2 F 3 Cl CFC-114 C 2 F 4 Cl CFC-115 C 2 F 5 Cl HCFC-22 CF 2 HCl HCFC-141b C 2 FH 3 Cl HFC-23 CHF HFC-134a CH 2 FCF R-502 R-22/ R-410A R-32/ Perfluoromethane CF Perfluoroethane C 2 F Perfluoropropane C 3 F Sulphur hexafluoride SF /6/20 46