Prospects for power generation from coal to 2050

Transcription

1 Prospects for power generation from coal to 2050 Didier Houssin Director, Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology International Energy Agency International Coal and Climate Summit Breakthroughs in clean coal technologies session Warsaw 18 November 2013

2 Contents International Energy Agency Recent trends in coal markets Improving plant efficiency Carbon capture and storage

3 The International Energy Agency at a glance Formed in the wake of the 1973 oil embargo with a mission to promote member country energy security Autonomous organisation affiliated with the OECD Energy policy and technology analysis and advice 3 E pillars of sound energy policy: Energy security Economic growth Environmental sustainability And a fourth E - Engagement worldwide

4 IEA Members (28 countries) IEA members Accession countries (Chile and Estonia have begun the process of joining the IEA) Partner countries that attended the 2011 Ministerial Meeting

5 Contents International Energy Agency Recent trends in coal markets Improving plant efficiency Carbon capture and storage

6 Fossil fuels predominate Primary energy supply from fossil fuels Main sources of electricity production Coal is closing the gap on oil Coal is the backbone of power production

7 Mtoe Since the start of the 21st century, coal has dominated the global energy demand picture Incremental world primary energy demand by fuel, Renewables Oil Natural gas 0 Total non-coal Coal with coal alone accounting for 45% of energy demand growth between 2001 and 2011.

8 China s dominance is absolute Coal demand and increasing.

9 Difficult times for coal in US Share of power generation in US with generation from gas displacing coal-fired power generation.

10 Coal prices reflect oversupply Price for imported coal in Europe with the trend demonstrating the increasing attraction of coal to Europe s generators.

11 Contents International Energy Agency Recent trends in coal markets Improving plant efficiency Carbon capture and storage

12 Coal is abundant and widely available with sufficient hard coal reserves for 120 years of generation at current consumption rates.

13 GW GW GW GW Ageing power plant infrastructure is a challenge China Before India Before European Union 300 United States Before Before Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass and waste Wind Other renewables and presents a challenge in many OECD countries compared with emerging economies.

14 HELE technologies to reduce environmental impact of coal use are HELE CCS *Efficiency improvement* Reduce non-ghg emissions Reduce CO 2 emissions those that improve efficiency, reduce specific fuel consumption and reduce specific pollutant emissions.

15 Contents International Energy Agency Recent trends in coal markets Improving plant efficiency Carbon capture and storage

16 CCS is part of a cost-effective future contributing 14% of total emissions reductions through 2050 in the 2DS compared with the 6DS. Half of it is CCS on power generation.

17 IEA vision: 120 Gt of CO 2 stored by 2050 By 2030 CCS needs to be deployed on two out of every three new coal-fired power plants. By 2050 all new coal-fired power plants will need to be equipped with CCS. Goal 1: 2020 Over 30 large projects in operation in power and across a range of industrial processes, storing 50 MtCO 2 per year. Goal 2: 2030 Over 2 GtCO 2 is stored per year. CCS routinely used in power and certain industrial applications. Goal 3: 2050 Over 7 GtCO 2 stored per year. CCS routinely used in all applicable power and industrial applications.

18 2013 CCS Roadmap: 7 Key actions 1. Introduce financial support mechanisms for demonstration and early deployment. 2. Develop laws and regulations that effectively require newbuild power capacity to be CCS-ready. 3. Significantly increase efforts to improve understanding among the public and stakeholders of CCS technology. 4. Implement policies that encourage storage exploration, characterisation and development for CCS projects. 5. Reduce the cost of electricity from power plants equipped with capture through continued technology development. 6. Prove capture systems at pilot scale in industrial applications. 7. Encourage efficient development of CO 2 transport infrastructure

19 Global coal-fired electricity generation (TWh) Three processes in coal-fired power generation essential (1) Decrease generation from subcritical (2) Install CCS* on plants over supercritical (3) Increase generation from high-efficiency technology (SC or better) *CCS (Post-combustion; Oxyfuel; Pre-combustion CO 2 capture) Subcritical HELE Plants with CCS* Supercritical USC IGCC CCS fitted to SC (or better) units. to deliver a low-carbon scenario.

20 OECD/IEA 2010 Thank you