Future Waters in the Danube Basin: Problems and Opportunities. László Somlyódy

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1 CASEE Conference: The EU Strategy for the Danube Region, April 2011, Szent István University, Gödöllő Budapest University of Technology and Economics Future Waters in the Danube Basin: Problems and Opportunities László Somlyódy Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering

2 Danube mixing studies (1975) Somlyódy (1975)

3 Danube Basin: EU and non-eu countries EU WFD

4 Danube Basin: countries and sub-basins Features of the Danube (Somlyódy, 2001) Complexity More than just the name of a river. Culture, tradition and beaty. Liquid history of many nations Black Forest Unique features. Steadiness and change alike Growing number of countries and huge economic disparity Nutrients, ecology and ecosystem services Environmental security, risks and conflicts Energy and navigation? Black Sea

5 Questions Connecting? Corridor? Bridge? Danube Basin as a melting pot? Danubian identity? An artery of life influencing the development of Europe? Life line in Greater Europe? What is the Danube? What will be? Today: problems and unexplored opportunities. Future?

6 EU Strategy for the Danube Region Four pillars and 11 Priority Areas: (A) Connecting the Danube Region 1. Transport 2. Sustainable energy 3. Culture and tourism (B) Protecting the Environment in the Danube Region 4. Water quality 5. Environmental risks 6. Biodiversity, landscape, air, soil (C) Building Prosperity in the Danube Region 7. Research, education and IT, 8. Competitiveness 9. Innovation (D) Strengthening the Danube Region 10. Institutions and cooperation 11. Security and decreasing crime Action plans for priority areas. Projects Financing: no new funding. Structural Funds, IPA, ENPI.

7 All in a changing world...

8 Nine water resources dilemmas in the Danube Basin

9 (i) Floods and droughts in Europe (last decade) Drougths Floods EEA (2009)

10 Extreme events in the 20th century (Hungary) a. árvizek Duna (Budapest) Tisza (Szolnok) 1100 Floods Vízállás (cm) Danube and Tisza rivers b. belvizek 700 Excess waters Elöntött terület (ezer ha) c. aszályok Droughts Pálfai féle aszályindex Somlyódy, Nováky és Simonffy (2010)

11 (ii) : 11 of the 12 years were the warmest since Climate change? Waltraud Grubitzsch, dpa, 2003

12 (iii) Shrinking floodplains

13 (iv) Disrupted ecological corridors

14 (v) Accidental pollution: cyanide spill (2000)

15 (vi) Local and regional water quality: nutrients JDS, 2002, danubs, 2005

16 (vii) Transboundary subsurface waters

17 (viii) Barrage conflict

18 (ix) Risk factors along the Danube (hydromorphology, hazardous substances, nutrients, organic materials) ICPDR (2010)

19 Global, regional, upstream downstream issues What comes next? Three cases

20 I. Eutrophication of the Black Sea: a regional issue Danube Questions Trade off among (i) service level, public health, local water quality and (ii) regional water quality? Nutrient retention by riparian countries? Chl-a concentration Nutrient load reduction of countries? Who is paying? Scheduling?

21 Wastewater treatment plants (ICPDR inventory) danubs, 2005

22 DANUBE AND ITS BASIN: TOTAL PHOSPHORUS EMISSIONS AND LOADS [kt P/a] Background Diffuse Point source River load GOAL 67.8 Retention D A CZ SK H SL HR BH SM RO BG MD UA UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM BASIN danubs, 2005

23 WASTEWATER MANAGEMENT IN DANUBIAN COUNTRIES % OF POPULATION Sewerage Nutrient Wastewater removal treatment Biological treatment Mechanical treatment TREATMENT GAP D A CZ SK H SL HR BH SM RO BG MD UA DANUBE BASIN I. EU-15 II. New EU or EU accession countries III. Non-accession countries Phare, 1997, ICPDR, 2000, Somlyódy, 2002, danubs, 2005

24 % OF POPULATION Development goal: 80 % service level CLOSING THE TREATMENT GAP SEWERAGE WWTP D A CZ SK H SL HR BH SM RO BG MD UA BASIN GDP [ ] PPP [ ] Investment need is about 40 billion

25 Emission trading (ICPDR, 2000)

26 State of utilities in Danubian countries (CEE region) COUNTRY WATER LOSS (%) UTILITY RISK INDEX NON- PAYMENT (%) NO. OF UTILITIES CZ ~ SK ~ 0 11 H ~ CR BH RO ~ BU MO Risk index (1-5): high value indicates low reliability and severe financial conditions; Non-payment: case study examples Morris, G. and Kis, A., 2004

27 Annual water and wastewater tariff/net income in PPP [%] Households (2008) 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 Denmark Poland Hungary Finland Slovakia Germany Netherlands Austria Sweden Lithuania Portugal Belgium Italy Spain Tariff [%] 0,4 0,2 0,0 Source: IWA International Statistics for Water Services ((2010) Tárki European Social Report (2008)

28 Eutrophication of the Black Sea Conclusions (I) Huge investments needs Ecology vs economy Affordability, scheduling and time span Tariff will increase Need to create proper financial resources and to develop long-term rehabilitation programs (asset management) Regional cooperation, solidarity and shared responsibilty

29 (II) Water Framework Directive Objectives To achieve the good ecological status of waters for different eco-regions. Programes of measures under the condition of full cost recovery and public participation. Details and the institutional settings are left to countries.

30 River Basin Management Plan (RBMP) Characteristics of of river river basins/water bodies Human activities REVISION IN EVERY 6 YEARS Monitoring, environm. status Environmental objectives Programme of of measures (economics) Implementation STAKEHOLDERS ECONOMIC CRITERIA INSTITUTIONAL COORDINATION

31 WFD quality classification Quality state Monitoring

32 Uncertainties in applying the WFD Monitoring Biology Present state Objectives Measures Costs

33 RBMP: Is Integration and Coordination on Different Levels Easy? - Large river basins (e.g. Danube) - Sub-basins - Countries - Water bodies/planning units Danube Basin

34 River basin management plan (Hungary) Danube water district ICPDR Sub-basins Duna. Dráva Balaton Tisza. Planning units

35 Main structure of RBMP in the Danube basin Danube RBMP - A Macro-scale, aggregated International Co-operation National RBMP - B 4 sub-basins (Hungarian part) Bilateral co-operation 42 sub-units Water bodies Micro-scale, many details Be as specific as needed and as general as possible. Iterative process of top-down and bottom up approach

36 WFD Water Framework Directive Conclusions (II) Leading concept world wide Lack of sufficient amount of monitoring data: biological classification is extremely uncertain Measures vs biological state vs costs? Research needs Integrating the WFD, the flood directive, draught management, CAP and spatial planning? Blueprint process of the EC to be completed in 2012

37 III. Inland waterway transport

38 Danube Basin: inland navigation Rotterdam Rhine, North Sea Capitals Győr Baja Russe CONSTANTA Russia, Asia vasút Thessaloniki Turkey, Meditrrranean Sea

39 Danube Basin: inland navigation of the future? TRANSPORT TYPES: 1. air, 2. road, 3. railway, 4. water, 5. mix BOTTLENECKS and competiteveness ALTERNATIVES of inland navigation: 1. draught (less than 2.5 m?), 2. one-way navigation and RIS, 3. river regulation, 4. barrage system CRITERIA: 1. investment cost, 2. OMR cost, 3. beneficiery countries, 4. burdens vs gains, 5. ecological status and impacts, 6. impacts on hydromorphology, drinking water resources, Natura 2000 and others OPEN PLANNING AND POLITICS

40 WFD Inland navigation Conclusions (III) Symbol of creating connections Opportunity of the future Test of the success of the Danube Region Strategy

41 Ecological status: another test Present Future ICPDR (2010) To settle at last our common affairs remain our task and none too small it is.. József J Attila: A Dunánál l (By the Danube)

42 EU Strategy for the Danube Region