The Outlook for Energy

Transcription

1 The Outlook for Energy a view to 23 New York Energy Forum June 16, 211 Tom Eizember Planning Manager, Corporate Strategic Planning This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

2 Economic and Energy Evolution As societies and technologies develop over time energy needs evolve as well ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 2

3 Global Population World Population Billion ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook Source: United Nations; ExxonMobil 3

4 Energy Evolution Global Demand By Fuel World Population Billion Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro 6 Gas Oil Coal Biomass ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook Source: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil 4

5 Economic Activity and Energy Demand Trillion 25$ GDP 6 GDP 4 Demand OECD Trillion 25$ GDP Non OECD ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 5

6 Global Energy Demand By Sector 3 Average Growth / Yr % % % 1.4% Transportation Industrial Res/Comm PowerGen Energy Savings ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 6

7 Industry Energy Demand Demand 25 2 Other Chemicals Heavy Industry & Chemicals Demand Changes 25 Chemicals Efficiency 2 Manufacturing Cement Steel 1 Heavy Industry Energy Industry ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 7

8 Residential/Commercial Demand By Sector By Fuel Residential Demand Changes Households Efficiency 25 1 Electricity Gas 5 5 Solar 3 25 Biomass 25 Coal Oil Residential Commercial ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 8

9 Global Transportation Demand Demand MBDOE 7 Average New Car MPG 5 6 Rail 5 Marine 4 Europe OECD Aviation Heavy Duty Light Duty Commercial Personal India China US ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 9

10 Personal Vehicle Fleet Vehicle Penetration Cars and Population (millions) US 25 Fleet by Car Type Million Cars 125 Advanced US 23 Population Cars 1 Diesel Europe OECD Europe OECD 23 5 China 25 Gasoline 25 China ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 1

11 Heavy Duty Demand Demand MBDOE Heavy Duty Demand Changes MBDOE 7 3 Vehicle Efficiency 6 Rail 25 Operating Inefficiencies 5 Marine Aviation 2 Freight Growth Heavy Duty 1 Truck Size 1 Light Duty ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 11

12 Regional Fuels for Power North America 14 Europe 14 Asia Pacific Renewables Nuclear Renewables 4 Nuclear 4 Coal 2 Coal 2 2 Gas Oil ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook Gas Oil

13 Economic Choices for U.S. Power Baseload, Startup cents/kwh 2 $6/ton $/ton CO 22 PV 15 Thermal 1 5 Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Coal-CCS Gas-CCS Geo- Thermal ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 13 Solar

14 Global Energy Mix % World Average Growth/Yr. 5 to 3 1.2% 15 2.% 23.7% % 2.3% Oil Gas Coal Biomass/Other Nuclear Hydro/Geo Wind, Solar, Biofuels ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook % 9.9%

15 Global Liquids Supply Liquids Supply MBDOE 12 Average Growth / Yr % Liquids Demand 9 ~29 ~35 ~36 Biofuels 6 OPEC Crude ~27 NGL, OPEC Condensate, Other 3 Canadian Oil Sands Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 15

16 Liquid Biofuels By Region MBDOE 3 ROW Biodiesel US Supply MBDOE EISA* 222 Target US Ethanol vs. Gasoline % Volume ROW Ethanol Brazil Ethanol 1. 2 nd Gen Imports 1 E1 Blend 1.5 Biodiesel 5 US Biofuels ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook Corn Ethanol *EISA: Energy Independence and Security Act

17 Bioenergy Pathways sun power plant electricity and heat + anaerobic conversion bio-gas CO 2 biomass + pretreatment hydrolysis fermentation sugar starch cellulosic cane (corn) ethanol water + nutrients gasification syngas to methanol methanol to gasoline gasoline algae bio-oil production bio-oil conversion gasoline diesel ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 17

18 Algae Biofuel Challenges Could Identify use and land develop and water high yield, unsuitable low cost for food algae production strains Determine Greater volumes the best per production acre systems Similar Develop to full today s scale, transportation economic production fuels of systems GHG mitigation benefits ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 18

19 Natural Gas Supply United States BCFD Europe BCFD Asia Pacific BCFD LNG Pipeline Unconventional 4 Local Production Conventional ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook

20 CO 2 Emissions CO 2 Emissions Billion Tons 4 Emissions per Capita Tons / Person Emissions per GDP Tons / 25$ k GDP Non OECD OECD OECD Non OECD. OECD Non OECD ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 2

21 CO 2 Abatement Costs US Cost of CO 2 Avoidance $/Ton 4 1 st Gen Ethanol 2 nd Gen Ethanol CNG PHEVs Fuel Cells 3 2 Full Hybrids vs. Existing Light Duty Vehicles 1 Existing Gas* Gas Nuclear Wind vs. New Coal Gas + CCS Coal + CCS Start-Stop Hybrids -1 *Higher utilization of existing gas vs. existing coal ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook Source: JEC (27), CARB (March 29), EIA AEO 21 Conventional Engine Improvements

22 Global Progress Drives Demand Population GDP Energy Demand Billion Trillion 25$ Average Growth / Yr. Average Growth / Yr. Average Growth / Yr % 2.8% 1.2% ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook

23 Development Challenges and Solutions 1 billion more people Increase Efficiency 1% increase in global GDP Technology Mitigate 35% increase Emissions in energy demand Expand All reliable, Supplies affordable energy supplies needed ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 23

24 ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 24

25 Speculation One of the things I find puzzling about the whole oil market discussion is how complicated people seem to make it. They get all wrapped up in stuff about forward markets, hedge funds, etc., and lose sight of the fundamental fact that there are only two things you can do with the world s oil production: consume it, or store it. If the price is above the level at which the demand from end-users is equal to production, there s an excess supply - and that supply has to be going into inventories. If oil isn t building up in inventories, there can t be a bubble in the spot price. Paul Krugman Princeton University economics professor 28 Nobel prize winner in economics ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 25

26 U.S. Vehicle Costs 5-Year Cost of Ownership $k 4 21 Fuel Cost Vehicle Cost* Conv Full Hybrid CNG Plug-in Hybrid Elec Conv Full Hybrid CNG Plug-in Hybrid Elec ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 26 *Excludes Maintenance and Insurance

27 ExxonMobil SGI alliance algae growth algae harvesting bio-oil recovery bio-oil transport & storage bio-oil conversion biofuel products Could use land and water unsuitable for food production Greater Biological volumes research per for acre Process engineering and algae strain development, scale up growth and harvesting Similar to today s transportation fuels Upgrading bio-oil into Bio-oil recovery research finished products and development GHG mitigation benefits Total process integration ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 27

28 Nuclear Capacity Expands Global Capacity GW 7 US Nuclear Reactors Existing Proposed Locations 6 Other Non OECD 5 4 China 3 Other OECD 2 Europe 1 US Existing Locations Brownfield Sites Greenfield Sites ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 28

29 Nuclear Capacity Growth Shifts ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook Source: World Nuclear Association, IAEA 29

30 Personal Transportation Fleet Diversifies Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles Advanced* CNG Diesel Gasoline North America Europe OECD Other OECD China India Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles 3

31 Economic Growth Continues GDP Trillion 25$ 1 8 Other Non OECD Africa Middle East Latin America India GDP Growth 25 to 23 Trillion 25$ China 15 Other Other 4 Other OECD 1 Europe OECD 2 5 China United States United States Non OECD OECD ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 31

32 Expansion Economies Drive Demand OECD 45 Non OECD 45 Other 3 3 Africa Other Middle East Latin America India Europe OECD United States China ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 32

33 Heavy Duty Dominates Growth Demand MBDOE Heavy Duty Demand Changes MBDOE 7 3 Vehicle Efficiency 6 Rail 25 Operating Inefficiencies 5 Marine Aviation 2 Freight Growth Heavy Duty 1 Truck Size 1 Light Duty ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 33

34 Electricity Demand Continues to Surge By Sector k TWh 3 By Region k TWh 3 Transportation 2 Commercial 2 Non OECD Residential 1 Other Industry 1 OECD Heavy Industry ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 34

35 Power Generation Mix Evolves Global Capacity Utilized GW By Generation k TWh 8 Wind Nuclear Gas Coal 2 1 Solar '5 '3 '5 '3 '5 '3 1 Nuclear Wind & Solar 5 Other Renewables Oil ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 35

36 Residential/Commercial Needs Electricity OECD 9 Non OECD 9 Electricity 6 6 Gas Solar 3 3 Biomass Coal Oil ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 36

37 Nuclear & Wind Capacity Expand Nuclear GW 6 year build time 12 Wind GW 1 year build time Americas Europe China India Other AP ROW ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 37

38 CO 2 Emissions Moderate World Billion Tons 5 OECD Billion Tons 5 Non OECD Billion Tons Non OECD 2 Growth Efficiency 2 Mix OECD ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 38

39 Renewables Gain Share United States Percent of TWhr 35 Europe Percent of TWhr 35 Asia Pacific Percent of TWhr Solar Geothermal Biomass/Other Wind Hydro '5 '1 '15 '2 '25 '3 '5 '1 '15 '2 '25 '3 '5 '1 '15 '2 '25 '3 ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook *Biomass includes Municipal Solid Waste 39

40 Coal Supplies Plentiful Demand Billion Tons 6 Reserves Billion Tons 4 5 Other Non OECD World: 776 Billion Tons ~15 29 Demand 4 India 3 Other Australia 3 2 India China 2 1 Other Europe 1 China NA Asia Pacific North America Russia Caspian Other ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 4

41 Deepwater Supply Expands Globally Global MBDOE 12 By Region MBDOE 15 9 Liquids Demand Oil Sands Deepwater Biofuels, Other 12 Far East NGLs, OPEC Condensate 9 Africa 6 Russia/Caspian Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate 6 Europe 3 3 Latin America OPEC Conventional Crude North America ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 41

42 Gulf of Mexico Supply Grows Liquids Supply MBD Deepwater Projects Deepwater Base.5 Base (excluding Deepwater) ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 42

43 Remaining U.S. Gas Resource North Slope CBM Cook Inlet CBM Resources for ~1 years coverage at current demand Major Unconventional Gas Basins Producing Tight Gas Producing CBM Producing Shale Gas Montney Horn River Powder River Unconventional gas has extended coverage 6+ years Tight Gas, Shale Gas & CBM Basins Jonah & Pinedale Piceance San Juan Granite Wash Woodford Marcellus Further unconventional gains expected Barnett Shale Fayetteville Haynesville Eagle Ford ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 43

44 US Energy Demand and Supply By Sector By Fuel 1 1 Renewables 8 Res/Comm Industrial 8 Biomass Nuclear Coal 6 6 Power Generation Gas Transportation 2 Oil ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 44

45 United States Energy Demand & Supply Total By Fuel Total By Sector Power Generation by Fuel 1 Renewables Biomass 1 Res/Comm 4 Other Renewables Wind & Solar Biomass 8 Nuclear 8 Industrial 3 Nuclear Coal Gas 4 Power Generation 2 Coal 2 Oil 2 Transportation 1 Gas Oil ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 45

46 China Energy Demand & Supply Total By Fuel 15 Total By Sector 15 Power Generation by Fuel 8 1 Renewables Biomass Nuclear 1 Res/Comm 6 Other Renewables Wind & Solar Biomass Nuclear Industrial Coal Coal Gas Power Generation 2 Oil Transportation Oil Gas ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 46

47 India Energy Demand & Supply Total By Fuel 5 Total By Sector 5 Power Generation by Fuel 2 4 Renewables Biomass 4 Res/Comm 15 Other Renewables Wind & Solar 3 Nuclear 3 Biomass Nuclear Coal Industrial Coal 1 Gas 1 Power Generation 5 Oil Transportation Gas Oil ExxonMobil 21 Energy Outlook 47