Renewable Integration Impact Assessment Finding integration inflection points of increasing renewable energy. NCEP Webinar Sept.

Transcription

1 Renewable Integration Impact Assessment Finding integration inflection points of increasing renewable energy NCEP Webinar Sept. 13 th, 18

2 Cumulative Renewable Additions (GW) Renewable energy is growing; will it significantly impact the grid? Wind forecasts are implemented in operations Dispatchable Intermittent Resources (DIR) are introduced The Multi-Value transmission projects (MVP) are approved by the MISO Board Solar forecasts are implemented in operations MISO South renewables begin to grow North/Central South 2 Historical queue additions + forecasted additions of 50% of DPP queue wind and solar capacity RIIA - 9/13/18

3 Renewable Integration Complexity Renewable Integration Impact Assessment (RIIA) seeks to find inflection points of renewable integration complexity Focus Areas: Resource Adequacy Energy Adequacy Operating Reliability RIIA begins by modeling the current system. Inflection points are milestones where complexity significantly increases. Illustrative example Renewable Energy Penetration (steps of %) 3 RIIA - 9/13/18

4 Wind, utility-scale PV, and distributed PV were forecasted to assess the impact on the MISO system 7.5% 4 For more information, see the RIIA Assumptions Document. RIIA - 9/13/18

5 Net load diurnal profile* (GW) Loss of load probability As renewable penetration increases, the risk of losing load shifts and compresses to a smaller number of hours Base % % 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0% Net peak load shifts from 3 pm to 6 pm. RISK 0.06% 0.05% 0.04% 0.03% % 0.01% % Hour (EST) Probability of losing load is targeted at one day in ten years over all penetration levels. While aggregate risk remains constant, the risk in particular hours increases. 5 *Profile shapes represent hourly averages across all days of the 6 study years. RIIA - 9/13/18

6 Average Generation (GW) Average Generation (GW) Changes to net load shapes are seasonal, however the risk of losing load still occurs during the summer at higher penetration levels Wind Solar Seasonal Variation of Wind Generation (MISO only) E_Winter %_Winter %_Winter 30%_Winter 40%_Winter 50%_Winter 60%_Winter 70%_Winter 80%_Winter 90%_Winter 0%_Winter E_Summer %_Summer %_Summer 30%_Summer 40%_Summer 50%_Summer 60%_Summer 70%_Summer 80%_Summer 90%_Summer 0%_Summer Seasonal Variation of Solar Generation (MISO only) E_Winter %_Winter %_Winter 30%_Winter 40%_Winter 50%_Winter 60%_Winter 70%_Winter 80%_Winter 90%_Winter 0%_Winter E_Summer %_Summer %_Summer 30%_Summer 40%_Summer 50%_Summer 60%_Summer 70%_Summer 80%_Summer 90%_Summer 0%_Summer 0 0 Hour (EST) Hour (EST) *Profile shapes represent seasonal hourly averages across the 6 study years. *Summer includes May, June, July, and August; Winter includes January, February, November, and December 6 RIIA - 9/13/18

7 ELCC (%) ELCC Improvement (%) Diversity of technologies improves the ability of renewable resources to mitigate the risk of losing load 60% 55% Improvement in Wind due to Solar Wind w/ Solar Improvement in Solar due to Wind Solar w/ Wind 60% 50% Wind only Solar only 50% 45% All Renewables 40% 40% 35% 30% 30% 25% % % 15% % % 5% 0% Base % % 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0% Renewable Generation Availability (% of Load Energy) 0% 7 RIIA - 9/13/18

8 Geographic diversity improves the ability of renewable resources to mitigate the risk of losing load Sites % sites scaled to 0% level* 50% sites scaled to 0% level* ELCC 11.1% 13.4% 0% sites 14.0% Wind PV % Sites 50% Incremental Sites 0% Incremental Sites *Generation at sites selected for % and 50% penetration levels was scaled to match the generation needed for the 0% penetration level. 8 RIIA - 9/13/18

9 Generation in MISO (TWh) CO 2 Emissions in MISO (million short tons) Capacity in MISO (GW) Conventional generation is dispatched down as renewable penetration increases Installed capacity in MISO increases in each milestone Base % % 30% Other Nuclear Coal 40% Gas Solar Wind Net Interchange Curtailment Emissions - - Base % % 30% 40% Other Nuclear Coal Gas Solar Wind DRAFT RESULTS 9 RIIA - 9/13/18

10 Gas generation in MISO (GW) The direction of ramping needs from conventional resources reverses as renewable penetration increases Coal generation in MISO (GW) Daily gas and coal generation for the peak renewable day 30 % % 30% 40% 30 % % 30% 40% Hour (EST) Hour (EST) Due to input assumptions, coal and gas have similar costs in the RIIA model. This causes their similar behavior. DRAFT RESULTS RIIA - 9/13/18

11 Renewable Generation (GW) Traditional points of transmission stress are changing as renewable penetration grows 50 MISO Renewable Generation vs. MISO Load (30% case) 40 High RE/ Low Load Peak Renewable High Load/High RE Low Load/High RE 30 Peak Load Lowest Load Load (GW) 11 RIIA - 9/13/18

12 Energy flow patterns change dramatically as renewable penetration increases 12 RIIA - 9/13/18

13 System fix complexity is concentrated in areas of high renewable deployment, but is moderate at the % penetration level % case Quantifies the magnitude of integration complexity in terms of approximate costs from all transmission fixes needed for steady state thermal and voltage issues up to the % renewable milestone. DRAFT RESULTS Complexity High Low 13 RIIA - 9/13/18

14 By examining increasing penetrations of renewables, several key takeaways have been thus far found 1. Risk of losing load compresses into a small number of hours and shifts to later in the day 2. As a result of the shift in risk of losing load, the available energy from wind and solar during high risk hours decreases 3. Diversity of technologies and geography improves the ability of renewables to meet load 4. The direction of ramping needs from conventional resources reverses as renewable penetration increases 5. Under RIIA assumptions for renewable penetration levels up to %, the integration complexity is mild 14 RIIA - 9/13/18

15 Thanks! Questions? Jordan Bakke All RIIA-related documents can be found on MISO s web page.

16 Phase 2 will continue looking at higher penetration levels and is expected to be completed by the end of the year Resource Adequacy Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3-0%* LOLE ELCC Sensitivities Resource mix Siting Sensitivities studied as part of Phases 2 and 3 will be partly driven by stakeholder feedback. Energy Adequacy -30%* Ramp Congestion Reserves 40-50%* Ramp Congestion Reserves Options Proceed to 60-0% Run sensitivities on -50% Operating Reliability -30%* Thermal, voltage Frequency response 40-50%* Thermal, voltage Frequency response Options Proceed to 60-0% Run sensitivities on -50% Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 * Renewable Penetration Milestones 16 RIIA - 9/13/18