Fine Dust Management in Korea

Transcription

1 Fine Dust Management in Korea Yongsung Cho Korea University

2 Annual average of Fine Dust concentration (2015) Source: National Institute of Environmental Research (2016), Annual report of air quality in Korea 2015.

3 PM 10 concentration trend of major cities in Korea unit: μg / m Seoul Pusan Daegue Incheon Gangju Daejeon Ulsan

4 Comparison with major cities 46 PM10 unit: μg / m3 PM Seoul('14) Paris('14) Tokyo('12) Berlin('14) London('13) Source: WHO, Global Urban Ambient Air Pollution Database, 2016.

5 TSP PM 10 PM 2.5 Changes in environmental standards in Korea unit: μg / m WHO Year (day) Year (day) Year (day) 150 (300) 150 (300) 150 (300) 80 (150) Delete 70 (150) 50 (100) 50 (100) 25 (50) (25) Comparison of PM 2.5 standards between cities unit: μg / m3 Korea USA Japan EU Australia China Daily average Annual average Year of introduction

6 TSP & PM 10 emission trends from 1999 to 2013 TSP (ton) 201,810 PM10 (ton) 171, ,986 84,835 88,075 85,941 88, ,510 98, , , ,563 63,251 64, Source: National Air Pollutant Emission Service Database (

7 TSP & PM 10 emission by source categories in 1999 PM % 4.4% 31.0% 9.0% 32.6% 11.8% Combustion in energy Combustion in Manufacturing industry Road transport others Non industrial combustion Production process Non-road transport TSP 12.3% 5.1% 34.6% 13.5% 24.3% 9.9%

8 TSP & PM 10 emission by source categories in 2013 PM % 54.2% 6.3% 14.5% 18.2% PM10 3.7% 66.6% 5.1% 10.0% 12.5% TSP 2.7% 74.6% 6.4% 6.5% 8.2% Combustion in energy Combustion in Manufacturing industry Road transport others Non industrial combustion Production process Non-road transport

9 others 0.3% 0.4% Non-road transport 9.9% 8.2% TSP(1999) TSP(2013) Road transport 6.5% 24.3% Production process 6.4% 13.5% Combustion in Manufacturing industry 34.6% 74.6% Non industrial combustion 5.1% 1.2% Combustion in energy 2.7% 12.3% others Non-road transport 0.5% 0.1% 12.5% 11.8% PM10(2013) PM10(1999) Road transport 10.0% 32.6% Production process 5.1% 9.0% Combustion in Manufacturing industry 31.0% 66.6% Non industrial combustion Combustion in energy 1.6% 4.4% 3.7% 11.2%

10 Characteristics of PM 2.5 emissions (2013) [Seoul metropolitan area] [Nation-wide of S. Korea] Indirect (secondary) PM 2.5 emissions

11 The share of PM 10 emissions of power sector is 11% nationwide & 14% in the metropolitan area. Annual Air Pollutant Emissions by Industry (2015) Power Generation Primary Metal Cement / Lime Petroleum refining Others TSP SOx NOx Emissions (ton) 3,848 76,986 13,2678 (%) Emissions (ton) 1,768 22,042 31,291 (%) Emissions (ton) 1,203-72,960 (%) Emissions (ton) ,515 16,761 (%) Emissions (ton) ,833 (%) TOTAL Emissions (ton) 7, , ,523 Main sources of indirect (secondary) emissions of PM 2.5 Note that it is based on the representative industry with TMS.

12 Policy options to reduce PM 2.5 directly and/or indirectly : Power sector & Renewable energy

13 1. Policy measures against Fine Dust in Coal Power Plants Shutdown aging coal-fired thermal power plants (10 plants) Retrofits Stronger emission standards for new coal power plants 4 of planned & 5 of under construction coal power plants Adjustment of operation priority by source Economic Dispatch Environmental Dispatch

14 1-1. Shutdown 10 aging coal-fired thermal power plants plans to shut 10 ageing coal-fired power plants (3,345MW) by 2025 of the 10 to be shut, 2 will switch to biomass from coal in 2017 among the 43 coal power plants, 8 that are more than 20-years old will be retrofitted while the rest, operational for under 20 years, will get expanded emissionreduction facilities but, build 20 new coal-fired plants by 2022 as planned (18,144MW)

15 YeongHeung Coal-fired Power Plants unit Plant #2 Plant #6 SOx NOx TSP SOx NOx TSP Emissions [A] Ton 1,475 1, Capacity MW Year of installation Volume of electricity sales [B] GWh 5,783 6,582 Emissions per electricity sales volume [A]/[B] Ton/GWh

16 Emissions of Air Pollutants by Power generation Fuel (2015) Power generation [A] Air pollutant emissions [B] Unit Coal Gas Oil Total GWh Ton 201, ,503 9, ,967 (63.4%) (33.6%) (3.0%) (100%) 183,027 25,208 12, ,308 (83.1%) (11.4%) (5.5%) (100%) - TSP [C] 3, ,186 - SOx 71, ,054 76,999 - NOx 107,706 24,513 6, ,123 [B] / [A] Ton/GWh [C] / [A]

17 1-2. Adjustment of operation priority Priority is given to a generator with low emission per generation rather than costs Economic Dispatch ( 經濟急電 ) Environmental Dispatch ( 環境急電 )

18 Example : Economic Dispatch Environmental Dispatch Assumption Period : Total Power generation (100,780 GWh) is constant Unit price (or cost) is constant Environmental dispatch scenario Oil power plants gas power plants Changing coal-fired power generation and gas-fired power generation

19 Example : Economic Dispatch Environmental Dispatch Unit Coal Gas Oil Total Unit price [A] KRW/kWh Social cost of TSP [B] 1000 KRW/ton 68,949 Unit emission of TSP per power generation Power generation BAU Ton/GWh GWh 63,377 32,033 5, ,780 Scenario 32,033 68, ,780 Difference [C] - 31, ,714-5,370 0 TSP emissions BAU 1, ,343.8 Scenario Ton Difference [D] [A]x[C] Million KRW - 2,288, ,660, , ,515 [B]x[D] + 39,763-8, , ,419 TOTAL - 2,288, ,651, , ,934

20 Coal Oil Gas Total unit price/cost (KRW/kWh) [a] power generation (GWh) [b] BAU 63, , , ,780.0 Scenario 32, , ,780.0 difference - 31, , , change of costs (million KRW) [a]x[b] - 2,288, , ,660, ,514.8

21 Coefficient of emission (ton/gwh) Emissions (ton) Social costs (million KRW/ton) Coal Oil Gas Total Sox Nox TSP Sox - 11, , , Nox - 16, , , , TSP Sox , Nox , TSP , Total (million KRW) - 1,022, Net benefits (million KRW) - 191,152.73

22 Estimation of social costs due to the substitution of new coal-fired power plants

23 Estimate the initial investment costs, annual operating & management costs, and environmental (external) costs if 20 coal-fired power plants are built as scheduled Comparing and analyzing the difference in costs when replacing some or all of the new coal-fired power plants with LNG combined power generation, solar power generation or wind power generation.

24 COSTS Initial investment costs (construction costs) Annual O&M costs including fuel costs Environmental (external) costs Air pollutants : NOx, SOx, PM10, CO2

25 Estimation results The estimated total costs will be 265 trillion KWR if new 20 coal-fired power plants are built on schedule and operate at a 90.7% operation rate by (Unit: 100 billion KWR) Initial Investment Variable Costs Environmental Costs Total Costs , , , % 48% 45% 100%

26 Scenario Analysis Comparing the difference in costs when replacing some or all of the new coal-fired power plants with LNG combined power generation, solar power generation or wind power generation. 8 scenarios

27 Year Coal-fired plant Scenario Name Capacity Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅴ Ⅵ Ⅶ Ⅷ 2015 Dangjin# Dangjin#10 SamcheckGreen#1 SamcheckGreen#2 Bukpyeong#1 Bukpyeong#2 Taean#9 Taean#10 Shin Boryeong#1 Yeosu#1 Shin Boryeong#2 Shin Seocheon#1 Gangneung A.#1 Gangneung A.#2 Goseong Hai#1 Goseong Hai#2 SamcheckTh.#1 SamcheckTh.#2 Dangjin Echo# Dangjin Echo#2 580 LNGfired power plants LNGfired power plants PV LNGfired power plants Wind- Land LNGfired power plants LNGfired power plants PV Wind- Land Coalfired power plant PV Coalfired power plant Windocean Wind- Land Coalfired power plant PV Wind- Land

28 Scenario Results by Scenarios Initial investment Variable costs Environmental costs (Unit: million KWR) Total costs BAU 180, ,271, ,200, ,652,461.7 Ⅰ 104, ,245, , ,473,493.8 Ⅱ 321, ,936, , ,330,631.3 Ⅲ 290, ,066, , ,429,634.6 Ⅳ 551, ,118, , ,743,406.6 Ⅴ 305, ,999, , ,377,810.7 Ⅵ 362, , , ,837,991.7 Ⅶ 331, , , ,936,994.9 Ⅷ 347, , , ,885,171.1

29 2. Role of Renewable Energy

30 Energy Consumptions by Sectors (unit: MTOE) Sector Annual growth rate (%) Industry Transportation Households & commercial Other Total

31 Prospect of total primary energy & final energy (BAU) 2 nd Master Plan for National Energy Primary energy Coal (30.3) Petroleum (38.1) LNG Hydro Nuclear Renewables /other Total 46.3 (16.8) 1.7 (0.6) 32.3 (11.7) 6.6 (2.4) (100) (29.7) (26.9) 73.3 (19.4) 2.0 (0.5) 70.0 (18.5) 18.8 (5.0) (100) Annual growth rate Final energy 1.24% Coal (16.3) -0.15% Petroleum (49.5) 1.93% City gas 0.70% Electricity 3.28% Heat 4.44% Renewables 1.32% Total 23.7 (11.5) 39.1 (19.0) 1.7 (0.8) 5.8 (2.8) (100) unit: MTOE 38.6 (15.2) 99.3 (39.1) 35.3 (13.9) 70.2 (27.6) 3.3 (1.3) 7.4 (2.9) (100) Annual growth rate 0.58% -0.11% 1.68% 2.47% 2.82% 1.01% 0.88%

32 Prospect of Energy Demand by Sectors in 2035 unit: MTOE % 18.3% 9.8% 11.1% 2035 Industry Residential Public/other Transportation Commecial % 17.9% 10.5% 7.7% Industry Transportation Residential Commecial Public/other

33 Implications Fine dust (TSP, PM 10, PM 2.5 ), and SOx, NOx, Carbon dioxide emissions will continue to grow.

34 ,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Accumulation of GHG Emissions, KOREA (unit: MtCO2e) Facts of Korea s energy consumption - 97% of energy is imported from abroad - Energy import account for 29% of Korea s total import volume Korea ranked No.7 in the world for GHG emissions & No. 6 for per capita GHG emissions at 12.6 tco2 per person in Emissions by fuel: Coal 49%, Oil 33%, Natural gas 16%, other 2% Emissions by sector: electricity & heat generation 50%, manufacturing industry & construction 18%, transport 15%, households 6%, services & other 11%

35 CO2 emission per capita 16.2 (unit: ton/person, 2012) Korea Japan USA Germany UK Framce OECD Energy Efficiency 11.7 (unit: US$/ktoe, 2013) Korea Japna USA Germany UK France OECD

36 Energy efficiency (US$/ktoe, 2013) CO2 emission per capita vs Energy efficiency UK 10 Germany France Japan 8 USA 6 OECD (9.7; 7.6) 4 Korea(11.9; 5.9) CO2 emission per capita (ton, 2012)

37 Renewable energy proportion in primary energy (unit: %, 2013) Korea Japan USA Germany France OECD

38 Source: IEA/NEA, Projected costs of generating electricity, 2015 (p.18)

39 New Renewable Energy Plan % of Renewable energy in primary energy Change of target year : % of renewable energy in 2030 Based on electricity capacity Portion of PV & wind power increased 72% ( ) Energy Mix Nuclear Coal Renewable LNG % 38% 8% 20% % 32% 11% 28% % 27% 20% 33%

40 Forecasting of Renewable Energy Capacity (unit: GW) Mix of Renewable Energy Source (MW) PV 4.5 (29.4%) Wind 1.0 (6.5%) Other 9.8 (64.1%) Total 15.3 (100) (39.0%) 1.4 (7.3%) 10.3 (53.7%) 19.2 (100) 15.3 (51.0%) 3.9 (13.0%) 10.8 (36.0%) 30.0 (100) 37.0 (54.6%) 18.3 (27.0%) 12.4 (18.4%) 67.7 (100) 67.7 current trend New Plan

41 Strategies Prosumer Green Pricing Renewable SPC RPS Barriers Social acceptability NIMBY

42 Thank you