Outline. Part 1 The Project MCA Methodology Ex-Ante and Ex-Post Values Criteria Weighting Research Implication Questions/Comments

Transcription

1 Denise J. Anderson The University of Trinidad and Tobago 14 h May, 2012

2 Outline Part 1 The Project MCA Methodology Ex-Ante and Ex-Post Values Criteria Weighting Research Implication Questions/Comments

3 The Project

4 Introduction This research proposal presents a case study that recommends a tool that can be used to evaluate the relative sustainability of one of the premier coastal tourism destinations in Trinidad and Tobago Maracas Beach

5 Problem a review of the Initial Environmental Statement (IES) of the Maracas Beach Redesign and Restoration Project shows that this document reports on the issues before, during and after project implementation, as well as the associated mitigation solutions (inclusive of engineering techniques and legal compliance)

6 Problem The IES does not: structured the data in an impact matrix table, so as to allow for exactness of expression for the state of the parameter/characteristic for every phase of project implementation (that is good, poor etc), thus hindering further possible data analysis

7 PROBLEM STATEMENT Even as the IES seeks to elicit the input of stakeholders in the identification of the main issues at stake for Maracas beach, the presentation of data to support the existence of the issues were unequally represented. The socio-economic data was relatively lacking in comparison to the environmental data provided in the report. This is a challenge faced also by the European Union s (EU s) system of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). The International Ocean Institute in its evaluation of the ICZM system noted that economic and social parameters were underrepresented" (International Ocean Institute, 2006, p. 249).

8 PROBLEM STATEMENT It is important that there is a balanced consideration of all three principles of sustainability (International Ocean Institute, 2006, p. 249). To address this problem, it is proposed that Multicriteria Analysis (MCA) can serve as a scientifically robust tool to holistically and objectively analyse sustainability factors of any given coastal site, with consideration to the principles of participation of all stakeholders.

9 SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MARACAS BEACH This research comprises a non-experimental case study that will analyse all aspects of sustainability, using a collaborative, co-management and interdisciplinary scientific approach. Having reviewed the available, sustainability assessment tools, Multicriteria Analysis (MCA) techniques: REGIME and NAIADE, are considered the best methods to employ to facilitate a comprehensive assessment of the coastal site of Maracas beach.

10 RESEARCH QUESTION Q: How can proposed developmental projects, for the coastal environment of Trinidad and Tobago, be assessed for sustainability?

11 RESEARCH QUESTION CONT D Q S1 : What integrated sustainability assessment tools can be used to provide equal weighting to the three tenets of sustainability, in assessing proposed coastal developmental projects in Trinidad and Tobago? Q S2 : How can the suggested tools be adapted for the present sustainability assessment process in Trinidad and Tobago?

12 MCA: A SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT TOOL Integrated assessment tools, more specifically, process-related indicator that analyses socially-, environmentally- and economic- set criteria This assessment is done using an impact matrix MCA can be used for ex-ante, immediate and ex-post analysis.

13 MCA ASSESSMENT TOOL Alternative projects, methods etc are assessed using criteria determined by key stakeholders. NB: Each criteria (or index) will be given a weight that is also determined by key stakeholders Decision-makers use the results of this assessment to implement the best (e.g. sustainable) project or method Policy-makers use the results of this assessment to gauge the effectiveness of implemented policies

14 PHASES OF MCA PROCESS

15 MCA - METHODOLOGY Phase I: Approaching Identification of social actors Actors possessed lay, scientific and technical knowledge in the social, economic and ecological disciplines: Governmental Organisations, Government owned entities, non- Governmental Organisation (NGO), Community Groups, Environmentalists and Engineers Problem definition The main problems of the study area are identified in IES: Flooding and Drainage, Car park capacity, Sand Loss, Sewage and Waste Disposal, Traffic Congestion and Pedestrian Hazard

16 MCA - METHODOLOGY Phase II: Representing Creation of alternatives and definition of evaluation criteria Assessment criteria are defined by main issues revealed by IES. Alternative options to deal with problems are to be alternative time phases. Criteria valuation and preference elicitation. Representatives from social, economic and environmental stakeholder groups will be given a questionnaire for the rating of the selected criteria. NB: This stage is necessary for the weighting of criteria

17 MCA - METHODOLOGY Phase III: Evaluating Selection of MCA technique As both qualitative and quantitative data are to be organised into the MCA impact matrix for analysis. and both are partial compensatory techniques

18 SELECTING MCA SOFTWARE

19 ASSESSMENT TOOLS Relative Sustainability: Multicriteria Analysis (MCA) NAIADE Novel approach to imprecise assessment and decision environments REGIME

20 MCA - METHODOLOGY Phase III: Evaluating Model application Defined alternatives and criteria would be used to assess NAIADE and final Regime for sensitivity analysis Social actors analysis of the results A final meeting would held with key stakeholders and committee

21 MCA IMPACT TABLE

22 OUTPUT OF MCA SOFTWARE NAIADE

23 OUTPUT OF MCA SOFTWARE REGIME

24 EX-ANTE VALUES Impact Matrix Socio-economic data Questionnaires Environmental data Existing Data

25 EX-POST VALUES Impact Matrix Socio-economic data Questionnaires Respondents would be exposed to: the conceptual drawing for the site design. It has a key that notes the change the summary for the IES by criteria worksheets

26 EX-POST VALUES Impact Matrix Environmental data Inductive coding of IES Data triangulation: the use of data from the IES; detailed TDC reports (prepared by relevant subject matter experts) Participant feedback: reviewed by person who worked on IES (Dr. George Sammy) External audit: subject matter expert opinion Peer review Reflectivity

27 SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS one of the main characteristics of sustainability indicators is that they are not static; with time, their usefulness could decline and there is need for new indicators, in the event that they can no longer adequately control changes, the original objectives have already been accomplished or if new problems emerge. Quintero & Vega (2005, p. 12)

28 CHOICE OF SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS This study will define the SIs by the issues of Maracas beach, as reported by the IES on the basis of consultations held with the relevant stakeholder groups. Main Issues at Stake 1 Sand Loss 2 Sewage and Waste Disposal 3 Flooding and Drainage 4 Car park 5 Traffic Congestion 6 Pedestrian Hazard

29 CHOICE OF SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS Roca, Gamboa and Tabara (2008) too based their SIs on the issues at stake for the assessment of the multidimensionality of coastal erosion risk for a Mediterranean coastal system, through public participation (and multicriteria analysis). These issues at stake, as identified by all stakeholder groups, were used to define the criteria and indicators.

30 STAKEHOLDERS Government Ministry of Health Ministry of Works and Infrastructure Ministry of Housing and the Environment Ministry of Tourism Water and Sewage Authority Environmental Management Authority (EMA) Town and Country Planning Division (TCPD) National Industrial Property Development Company Limited (NIPDEC) Institute of Marine Affairs (IMA)

31 STAKEHOLDERS Non-governmental Trinidad Hotels, Restaurants and Tourism Association Maracas Bay Hotel Tourist Transport Association Trinidad and Tobago Incoming Tour Operators Association Maracas Community Council Maracas Vendors Association

32 STAKEHOLDERS Criteria Weights Focus group 1 round of determination of relative criteria weights, using a rating method Presentation of the average criteria weights If necessary (>50) 2 round of determination of relative criteria weights, using a rating method

33 Detailed List of Criteria and Associated Time Phases Environmental Criteria Criteria Measurement Alternatives Ex-ante Ex-post Sand loss Tw 1 Mean beach width Tw 2 Tw 3 Tw 4 Tv 1 Tv 2 Tv 3 Tv 4 Mean beach width Mean beach width Mean beach width Mean beach volume Mean beach volume Mean beach volume Mean beach volume

34 Detailed List of Criteria and Associated Time Phases Environmental Criteria Wetland loss W Percentage of hectares of wetland lost Marine bacteriology M fc1 Faecal coliform bacteria count M fc2 M fc3 M fc4 M fc5 M fc6 M ec1 M ec2 M ec3 M ec4 M ec5 M ec6 Faecal coliform bacteria count Faecal coliform bacteria count Faecal coliform bacteria count Faecal coliform bacteria count Faecal coliform bacteria count Escherichia coli bacteria count Escherichia coli bacteria count Escherichia coli bacteria count Escherichia coli bacteria Escherichia coli bacteria count Escherichia coli bacteria count

35 Detailed List of Criteria and Associated Time Phases Environmental Criteria Marine bacteriology M e1 Enterococci bacteria count M e2 M e3 M e4 M e5 M e6 Enterococci bacteria count Enterococci bacteria count Enterococci bacteria count Enterococci bacteria count Enterococci bacteria count Riverine bacteriology R fc1 Faecal coliform bacteria count R fc3 R fc5 R fc6 R ec1 R ec3 R ec5 R ec6 Faecal coliform bacteria count Faecal coliform bacteria count Faecal coliform bacteria count Escherichia coli bacteria count Escherichia coli bacteria count Escherichia coli bacteria count Escherichia coli bacteria count

36 Detailed List of Criteria and Associated Time Phases Environmental Criteria Riverine bacteriology R e 1 Enterococci bacteria count R e3 Enterococci bacteria count R e5 Enterococci bacteria count R e6 Enterococci bacteria count Drainage Q 10 Peak Discharge of 10 year return interval Q 25 Peak Discharge of 25 year return interval Q 50 Peak Discharge of 50 year return interval Flooding F Number of flooding incidents

37 Detailed List of Criteria and Associated Time Phases Social Criteria Loss of homes D Number of residents to be displaced Community security I cm Number of criminal incidents Beach user security I bu Number of criminal incidents Pedestrian safety I p Number of pedestrian incidents Car park capacity CP Percentage of private vehicle drivers opting not to use the parking lot/private vehicle drivers Traffic volume V Average number of vehicles V wd Average number of vehicles on a weekday V we Average number of vehicles on a weekend

38 Detailed List of Criteria and Associated Time Phases Economic Criteria Employment E u Unemployment percentage E n Percentage of national employment E l E p Percentage of local employment No. of employment sectors Earning performance EA c Average community earnings EA b Average business earnings Intensity of tourism E t Percentage of businesses involved in tourism O Number of overnight stays in tourist accommodations O r Occupancy rate of bed places Fish landings L kg Average landings value

39 Expected Results

40 IMPLICATIONS OF RESEARCH MCA will supplement the EIA process Like EIA it provides an impact table that evenly assess the three aspects of sustainability. It fully integrates the participatory process in the assessment process. All stakeholders are involved from the beginning of the process Instead of eyeballing the impact matrix table, optimum decisions are made in an objective manner It fully integrates the participatory process in the assessment process. All stakeholders are involved from the beginning of the process Allows all stakeholders to be a part of the process for selecting criteria and determining criteria weights (used for the decisionmaking process), and is thus transparent

41 IMPLICATIONS OF RESEARCH The assessment process is comprehensive relevant transparent scalable reliable objective

42 Comments or QUESTIONS?