Energy Matters. How COP21 can shift the energy sector onto a low-carbon path that supports economic growth and energy access

Transcription

1 Energy Matters How COP21 can shift the energy sector onto a low-carbon path that supports economic growth and energy access Kamel Ben Naceur Director, Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology IEA webinar, 25 November 2015

2 Overview Introduction: Energy at the heart of the climate challenge The impact of INDCs on the energy sector IEA s four key messages to COP21 IEA activities at COP21

3 Energy at the heart of the climate challenge The energy sector accounts for at least two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions Momentum is building: 2014 emissions did not rise Renewable capacity additions at a record high of 130GW Fossil fuel subsidy reforms bearing fruit Over 175 countries with INDCs for COP21 The energy sector must cut emissions, while powering economic growth, boosting energy security & increasing energy access

4 Impact of INDCs on the energy sector 150 INDCs; over 175 countries; these countries represent nearly 95% of energy-related emissions IEA World Energy Outlook Special Report (June, updated October) found that INDCs result in: Near-tripling in rate of global energy intensity improvement 70% of additional power generation to be low-carbon power sector emissions plateauing close to today s levels But emissions still rising in 2030: more is needed

5 IEA messages to COP21 To shift the energy sector onto a low-carbon path that supports economic growth and energy access: 1. Take five key actions, led by energy efficiency and renewables, to peak then reduce global energy emissions. 2. Use the Paris Agreement to drive short-term actions consistent with long-term emission goals. 3. Accelerate energy technology innovation to make decarbonisation easier and even more affordable. 4. Enhance energy security by making the energy sector more resilient to climate change impacts.

6 1. Take five key actions, led by energy efficiency and renewables, to peak then reduce global energy emissions. Emissions savings in the Bridge Scenario by measure, 2030 Upstream methane reductions Fossil-fuel subsidy reform 15% 10% 49% Energy efficiency Renewables investment 17% 9% Five measures save almost 5 Gt of emissions by 2030 & achieve a global emissions peak by 2020, without harming economic growth & using only proven technologies Reducing inefficient coal

7 The Bridge Strategy is flexible across regions GHG emissions reduction by measure in the Bridge Scenario, relative to the INDC Scenario, 2030 European Union Russia United States Middle East China India Southeast Asia Efficiency Inefficient coal plants Renewables Methane reductions Fossil-fuel subsidies Latin America Africa Source: World Energy Outlook Special Report: Energy and Climate Change (2015). The measures in the Bridge Scenario apply flexibly across regions, with energy efficiency & renewables as key measures worldwide

8 2. Use the Paris Agreement to drive short-term actions consistent with long-term emission goals. Lock in the vision by translating the below-2 C temperature goal into a clear long-term emissions goal. Link short-term national targets to the longterm objective through national lowcarbon development strategies. Establish a five-year revision cycle to strengthen action as countries experience success and technology costs decline. Track the transition of the energy sector, not just greenhouse gas levels. Source: World Energy Outlook Special Report: Energy and Climate Change (2015).

9 The world s remaining carbon budget Today Source: World Energy Outlook Special Report: Energy and Climate Change (2015). A five-year review cycle would enable pledges to keep pace with energy sector innovation; building ambition before the carbon budget is consumed

10 3. Accelerate energy technology innovation to make decarbonisation easier and even more affordable. Triple public investment in RD&D Scale up collaboration between public and private entities in developed and developing countries Source: Energy Technology Perspectives (2015). IEA roadmaps for clean energy technologies IEA is supporting 39 Technology Collaboration Programmes, and is ready to support new initiatives

11 4. Enhance energy security by making the energy sector more resilient to climate change impacts.

12 Making the energy sector more resilient to climate change Energy supply, transmission and demand can be directly affected by changes to the climate Extreme weather events and increasing stress on water resources pose threats to energy security by disrupting energy supply systems Greater resilience to climate change impacts will be essential for a sustainable energy sector and global energy security The resilience value chain integrates robustness - ability to withstand threats, resourcefulness - capacity to maintain essential functions under extreme events and quick recovery Synergies between mitigation and adaptation actions should be emphasised (e.g. distributed generation, energy efficiency) Businesses and governments are the key actors in resiliencebuilding

13 IEA analytical inputs to COP 21

14 Events during COP 21 that IEA is leading or co-organising Event Description Location Date Energy Efficient Prosperity Energy efficiency in emerging economies Climate Generations Area Tu1 Energy Sector Resilience to Climate Change Country perspectives on building energy sector resilience to climate change impacts EU Pavilion, Blue Zone Scaling up Renewables Implications for energy security, electricity market design, and industry Climate Generations Area We 2 IEA DAY: Analysis for COP21 and beyond Joint IEA/China Highlevel Side Event Full day of technical-level side events highlighting IEA key messages to COP 21, plus networking reception Featuring IEA Executive Director and China s Lead Negotiator IETA- WBCSD Pavilion, Blue Zone China Pavilion, Blue Zone CCS Dialogue CCS High-level Dialogue IEA Mo7 High level ZEV event High-level event on zero-emission vehicles Blue Zone Tu8 Lima-Paris Action Agenda Innovation Focus Joint side event with Nordic Ministers IEA official side event Afternoon of innovation-focused events organised with French Presidency, as part of the Lima-Paris Action Agenda How to decouple GDP and GHG Emissions? Lessons learned in the Nordic countries (with Asian Development Bank) Driving Energy Sector Transformation and Technology Transfer and Development IEA Big Energy Debates High-level speakers discussing two challenging issues : development with much lower emissions, and the air-quality-climate link Technology Collaboration Accelerating Innovation through Energy Technology Collaboration: The 39 IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes and other initiatives Using data to track the energy transition Blue Zone We2 Th3 Fr4 Tu8 Blue Zone We 9 Blue Zone Climate Generations Area OECD Pavilion, Blue Zone IEA s data and statistics for tracking energy sector decarbonisation OECD Pavilion, Blue Zone Fr11 Full schedule of events at We9 Th10 Th10

15 IEA evolving to meet future challenges 1. Opening the door to emerging economies Mexico has requested to join the IEA China, Indonesia and Thailand have activated their status as Association countries. 2. Evolving energy security mandate 3. IEA as an international hub for clean energy technology and energy efficiency

16 IEA Ministers issue statement on energy and climate change IEA s 29 member countries issue a collective statement stating that they: Welcome INDCs and endorse IEA view that INDCs should be a first step upon which to build ever-increasing ambition. Welcome the IEA s five key opportunities to reduce energy sector emissions: 1. Increasing energy efficiency in industry, buildings and transport 2. Phasing out the use of least efficient coal fired power plants 3. Increasing investment in renewables, including hydro 4. Gradual phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies 5. Reducing methane emissions from oil and gas production Call on the IEA to: advise how to enhance the environmental sustainability of the energy sector (including the reduction of local pollution), expand tracking of the energy sector transformation and increase international collaboration.

17 Conclusions The energy sector is key for a successful outcome in Paris INDCs are not yet enough to achieve our climate goal, but are a basis from which to build ambition Cost-effective action is possible now that could lead global emissions to peak around 2020 The Paris agreement must send a strong signal to the energy sector through a long-term goal, 5-year reviews, and a strong tracking framework Additional focus is needed on energy technology innovation, and on building energy sector resilience to climate impacts The IEA stands ready to support implementation, bringing together data, modeling, policy and technology

18 Thank you for your attention