MARKAL Analysis on Long-term Change of Residential Energy Equipment Structure in Japan

Transcription

1 MARKAL Analysis on Long-term Change of Residential Energy Equipment Structure in Japan Lab. of energy conversion system Shingo Kurokawa Division of Energy and Environmental Systems, Hokkaido University / Laboratory of Energy Conversion 14/November/24 Systems

2 Overview of my research Slide 2 of 11 Background It is important we address the issue of global warming from a global & long-term viewpoint. Objective Optimizing energy system (=fill energy demand at a lowest cost) Research content Analysis of energy system by using Japanese MARKAL focused on residential equipment (ex) cogeneration system, heat pump system

3 What is MARKAL? Slide 3 of 11 Japanese MARKAL Analysis model for Japanese energy system to 25 Basic frame of energy system Primary energy Crude oil LNG Uranium [Supply technology] Conversion (, Low temp. heat) Process (Purification, Conversion, Transport) Energy Technology Final demand energy Low temp. heat Town gas [Final demand technology] Industry Civilian Transport Energy service Power Air heating Car transport (carrier:16) Optimize at lowest cost Analyze the whole energy system

4 Modeling of residential energy system Slide 4 of 11 Energy service in residential sector (air heating and hot-water supply) Basic frame of energy system Primary energy Crude oil LNG Uranium [Supply technology] Conversion (, Low temp. heat) Process (Purification, Conversion, Transport) Energy Technology Final demand energy Low temp. heat Town gas [Final demand technology] Industry Civilian Transport Energy service Power Air heating Car transport

5 Cogeneration & heat pump (system) Slide 5 of 11 Town gas Large-size cogeneration PEFC cogeneration heat exchanger Demand of air heating & hotwater supply in industry & residential sector Restructuring the system Town gas Large-size cogeneration Small-size cogeneration PEFC cogeneration Heat pump heat exchanger heat exchanger heat exchanger Demand in industry sector Demand in residential sector

6 Cogeneration & heat pump (performance) Slide 6 of 11 Cogeneration used target level by NEDO Residential: PEFC, small-size engine Heat pump used example of existing eco-cute Equipment Annual Availability (%) PEFC CGS (Town gas) 7 Gas engine CGS 65 Heat pump 7 Efficiency (-) Ele:.35.4 Heat:.5 Ele:.2 Heat:.57 COP: System COP: Investment cost (1,yen/kW) 1,2 4 1,

7 Basal condition Slide 7 of 11 Equipmentupper bound (GW) Use of nuclear energy Limitation of CO GW keep the level at 21 level Exhaust limitation of CO2 (1Mt) : 55% of the 21 level connection between nuclear energy & CO 2 emmition 45% decrease 25 keep nuclear for focusing CO 2 reduction technologies except nuclear

8 Transition of energy service (base case) Slide 8 of 11 hot-water supply air heating Energy service (PJ) other Oil Gas Cogeneration Heat Pump Energy service (PJ) other Oil Gas Cogeneration Air Conditioner Use of cogeneration: large because it includes target level by NEDO Use of cogeneration: zero Use of air conditioner: large

9 Transition of energy service (initial cost) Slide 9 of 11 base case reduced initial cost of heat pump 5% in every year Energy service (PJ) other Oil Gas Cogeneration Heat Pump Energy service (PJ) other Oil Gas Cogeneration Heat Pump reduced initial cost of heat pump use of heat pump: increase use of cogeneration: decrease

10 Use of heat pump (reduction of initial cost) Slide 1 of 11 ratio by reduction of initial cost of heat pump Energy Service by HP (PJ) % -15% -1% -5% Base Case HP+CGS If the reduction ratio of initial cost of heat pump, the use will increase

11 Conclusion Slide 11 of 11 MARKAL is a kind of energy system Japanese MARKAL covers Japan focusing residential sector, especially hotwater supply, cogeneration system and heat pump system can make the social cost lowest