Energy Data for Policy Analysis

Transcription

1 Energy Data for Policy Analysis Strategic Role of Energy Statistics in National and International Policies Murman Margvelashvili World Experience for Georgia Copenhagen April 2013

2 WEG Energy & Environment Think Tank Established in 2006 to facilitate an access to best western knowledge and practice for Georgian society. Main activities Research and Advocacy, education, informing, consultancy, Activities: Energy planning Development of country energy planning model MARKAL, hydropower model, etc. EE & RE assessment of country s potential, legislation drafting, energy audits, design of EE & RE implementation policies & measures, pilot projects. Climate change Technology Needs Assessment for Georgia, technology market & barrier analyses, technology action plans Energy Policy, energy strategy development Energy emergency planning, shale gas development planning Environmental & Social impact Assessments, Strategic EIAs, resettlement planse etc. for infrastructure projects Participation in Civil Society activities member of EaP Civil Society Forum and Georgian National platform 4/22/2013 2

3 Georgia s Energy Balance Not compiled officially since 2001 No country s energy strategy 2008 work on EE and RE potential in Georgia Letter to the Government, PM, highlighting policy issues Forestry reform External dependence Energy security policy Seasonality regional cooperation 4/22/2013 3

4 Sources of Energy Data in Georgia Statistics department not collecting energy data no system in place ESCO Electricity System Commercial Operator electricity data Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources electricity and a little bit of gas Difficulty in obtaining gas data Gas Transportation Company Georgian National Energy and Water Regulatory Comission Inquiries with Distribution companies problem with customer categories No public data on coal No reliable data on oil product imports Customs department import and export of goods Own expert assessments especially fuel wood Voluntary unofficial balances EEC, energy experts Lack of transparency in energy information IEA balance for Georgia is approximate at best 4/22/2013 4

5 WEG Analyzing EE & RE potential (2008) Energy saving potential Energy Efficiency Measure Electricity (GWh) Energy Saved Natural gas (mcm) Improvement in distribution RE potential Amount of biomass Wind data, solar, Small hydro, Geothermal potential Installation of Efficient Lighting 350 Weatherization Energy Savings from instilling energy efficient behavior in society Energy Savings in the Nonresidential Sector GWh Theoretical Potential Technical Potential Achievable Potential RES Type Small Hydro 40 TWh 19.5 TWh 5TWh Wind 1300TWh 5TWh Bio Mass 12.5 TWh 3 4TWh Economical Potential Efficient wood burning 700K cm of wood Solar 1550 kwh/m GWh Geothermal 4/22/ MW 100MW GWh 5

6 Tariff methodologies, social aspects Electricity stepped tariffs in Georgia promote energy efficiency 9.5t 12.5t 17.7t < 101kWh kWh >300kWh Need to analyze the number of consumers in each category and variance in case of tariff change September step 14% 2 step 62% 3 step 24% Tariff is not a social subsidy tool Social subsidies evaluate the social amount of electricity and gas to be subsidized 4/22/2013 6

7 Planning with MARKAL Georgia MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) is a widely applied bottom up, dynamic technique, linear programming (LP) model developed by the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP) of the International Energy Agency (IEA). MARKAL is: bottom up optimization model of the entire energy system of a single or several regions technology rich model, depicting the comprehensive energy system including supply (imports/production) upstream (refineries, power plants, and pipelines and grids) demand devices providing demand services (e.g., heaters, lights, machine drives, cars) The model is adjusted to Georgian realities and ready for use by Minisitry. 4/22/2013 7

8 Energy System l 4/22/2013 8

9 MARKAL data requirements Detailed National Energy balance and consumption by subsector, and the splits down to the end use level Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Agriculture, Transport Useful Energy Demands / Energy Services (and Elasticity), and time of use Detailed Costs of Technologies Investment, fixed, variable, fuel delivery Technology Characteristics Fuels in/out, efficiency, availability, technical life duration Installed capacity of technologies, new investment possibilities Environmental Impacts Unit emissions per resource, per technology (operation, investment) System and other parameters Discount rate, seasonal/day night fractions Projections (GPD, Population growth) 4/22/2013 9

10 MARKAL RESULTS 4/22/

11 Climate Change Energy data for inventory of GHG emissions Data accumulated by WEG was used in 3 rd National Communication on Climate Change CC Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) Identification of priority sectors, selection of preferred technologies in compliance with country s development priorities, market analysis and developing the Technology Action Plans as well as Pilot Project proposals Data needs for TNA Wood fuel potential Annual wood cutting/annual wood consumption Number of rural households consuming wood for heating Heating technologies in rural areas Number of new built buildings (annual) Emissions from sectors EE level of new buildings( absence of buildings passports) 4/22/

12 Collecting Data Energy Audits in Residential Block Buildings in Tbilisi Designing EE & RE measures Solar and geothermal hot water Thermal insulation Window & Door replacement Exterior improvement Households surveys for energy consumption data Questionnaires Utility bills Measurements of temperature Thermal imaging Social aspects quality of life, unsatisfied energy needs 4/22/

13 CSO Activities EaP Civil Society Forum Energy Security Index Benchmarking of different countries vs. EU Energy Aquis requirements and EaP goals 4R+R=5R Review, Reduce, Replace, Restrict, Relate Energy balance indicating internal and external energy sources Share of renewable energy in country s energy balance Existence of traditional and non traditional energy reserves Energy storage capacity and security reserves Energy consumption intensity (per capita, per $GDP) Energy availability and affordability (energy prices by sectors, share of energy in household expenditures) Energy Statistics & energy information transparency availability R2 Sector energy intensities and saving potential 4/22/

14 CSO Activities Georgia National Platform Promotion of EE & RE legislation energy intensities, etc Promotion of transparency and energy data availability Development of Energy Statistics Energy Balance Conformance to international obligations and EU Aquis 4/22/

15 ADB ASSESSMENT OF POWER SECTOR REFORMS IN GEORGIA Time series in energy production and consumption data to highlight the effect of policies and reforms Electricity Balance mln. kwh HPP TPP Net electricity import Electricity consumption 4/22/

16 Main issues and challenges experienced with energy statistics in Georgia Difficulty of getting data from energy companies unification of definitions, commercial vs. residential, periodic update Lack of valid, real time and complete energy data Lack of historical energy data Bureaucracy No clear and legal obligation for public/private organizations to collect energy data 4/22/

17 Importance of Better Energy Statistics Policies Country Energy strategy energy security, energy projections, major decisions on development of own energy sources, RE and EE policies, investment etc. EU association benchmarking, energy security requirements, Climate Change emissions inventory, NAMAS, CDM EE & RE strategies and action plans basic data Social subsidies Etc. 4/22/

18 Suggestions Energy balance is being addressed system needs to be established Help with professional survey methodology Unification of distribution company reporting Transport data needs to be developed Building sector needs to be studied Transparency of energy data needs to be established at policy level Impose clear and legal obligation to the organizations collecting energy data, Improve coordination among public and private organizations Energy professionals participation in the process Better government and donor coordination 4/22/

19 Thank You 4/22/