REALISEGRID. MARKAL-TIMES results for the timeframe for the European Energy System

Transcription

1 REALISEGRID MARKAL-TIMES results for the timeframe for the European Energy System Maurizio Gargiulo (ASATREM/KANLO/POLITO), On behalf of the modelling team

2 Contents 1. The Pan European TIMES Model (PET 36 ) 2. Scenario results for EU36 to Results dissemination of complex models 2

3 1. The Pan European TIMES Model - PET 36 The PET Model is a multi-regional partial equilibrium model of Europe built with MARKAL-TIMES, the technical economic model generator of IEA- ETSAP The model includes the following separate 36 regions (EU + NON-EU countries): The model is built with a time horizon Seasonal and day/night details 3

4 1. The Pan European TIMES Model - PET 36 The reference Energy System High Level Single Region 4

5 1. The Pan European TIMES Model - PET 36 How does the model work? Possible future configurations of each country energy systems are represented in the model as a network of processes and commodities, the so-called Reference Energy System (RES). Solving the model means finding the RES by selecting the set of technologies and fuels that maximises the total surplus - equivalent to the minimum system cost in simplest case. The model determines the optimal mix of technologies and fuels at each period, the associated emissions, mining and trading activities and the equilibrium level of the demand. The model is driven by exogenous demands specified by: - The list of each energy service demanded, i.e. the disaggregation - Actual values in the base year 2005, i.e. the calibration - Values for all milestone years till 2050, i.e. the projection. 5

6 1. The Pan European TIMES Model - PET 36 Demand for energy service: examples In the PET there are 70 exogenous demands for energy services. Not all demands are open in every country model. For instance, in Iceland Residential space cooling is zero. This disaggregation is suggested by different reasons. -The first level disaggregation by sector followed the tradition; it is necessary for linking the PET model to other economic models and for comparing results with all kind of energy - environment statistics. -The disaggregation inside each sector depended on the sector. 6

7 1. The Pan European TIMES Model - PET 36 End uses demand technologies Residential Sector Table 1: Devices supplying space heating in residential buildings CODE Description EFF decimal FIXOM 05/kW INVCOST 2005/kW LIFE years RHREBIOL101 Biodiesel boiler-heathotwater RHREGAS201 Natural gas boiler RHREGAS101 Natural gas stove RHREGAS401 Natural gas boiler condensing RHREGAS301 Natural gas boiler-heathotwater RHREWOO101 Wood-pellets boiler-heathotwater RHREGAS501 Natural gas boiler condensing-heathotwater RHRELPG201 LPG boiler RHREBIO201 Biomass stove RHREOIL201 Oil boiler RHRELPG101 LPG stove RHRELPG301 LPG boiler-heathotwater RHREGASHP701 Air heat pump + natural gas boiler-heatcool RHREGASHP601 Air heat pump + natural gas boiler RHREELC101 Electric radiators RHRELPGHP501 Air heat pump + LPG boiler-heatcool RHREBIO101 Wood fireplace RHREOIL301 Oil boiler-heathotwater RHRELTH101 District heat exchanger-heathotwater RHREOIL401 Oil boiler condensing-heathotwater RHRELPGHP401 Air heat pump + LPG boiler RHREELCHP202 Air heat pump + electric boiler-heatcool RHREOIL101 Oil stove RHRESOLD101 Solar collector + electric backup RHREELCHP402 Ground heat pump + electric boiler-heatcool RHREELCHP302 Adv Air heat pump + electric boiler-heatcool RHRESOLG201 Solar collector + gas backup-heathotwater RHRESOLE601 Solar collector + diesel backup-heathotwater RHREHYD110 Hydrogen burner RHREELCHP201 Air heat pump + electric boiler RHREELCHP301 Adv Air heat pump + electric boiler RHREELCHP401 Ground heat pump + electric boiler

8 1. The Pan European TIMES Model - PET 36 Applications of the model to EU projects: -NEEDS (New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability) - -RES2020 (Monitoring and Evaluation of the RES directives implementation in EU27 and policy recommendations for 2020) - -REALISEGRID (REseArch, methodologies and technologies for the effective development of pan-european key GRID infrastructures to support the achievement of a reliable, competitive and sustainable electricity supply - -REACCESS (Risk of Energy Availability: Common Corridors for Europe Supply Security) - -COMET (Integrated Infrastructure for CO 2 Transport and Storage in the west Mediterranean) - -Energy Modelling-Irish TIMES to develop energy and emissions policy scenarios. The Irish TIMES was originally extracted from the PET 36 model and then updated with local and more detailed data and assumptions - 8

9 2. Scenario Results for EU36 to

10 2. Scenario drivers and composition The most important drivers identified for the European energy system and its future developments are six: population and households (POP); development of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP); level of climate change mitigation (CCM); degree of improvement of energy technologies (TECH); availability of extra European oil and gas supply (GAS); and development of electricity cross-border infrastructures (ELC). Four scenarios were selected and the model runs for the period in five years intervals. 10

11 2. Electricity consumption by sector (TWh/yr) 11

12 2. Electricity generation including imports (TWh/yr) at the aggregated level of EU36 12

13 2. Electricity production by fuel (TWh/yr) at the aggregated level of EU36 13

14 2. Electricity capacity (GW) at the aggregated level of EU36 14

15 2. Electricity generation including imports (TWh/yr) at the aggregated level of EU36 15

16 2. Electricity intra-eu trade (TWh/yr) at the aggregated level of EU36 16

17 2. Emissions of CO 2 (Mt/yr) at the aggregated level of EU36 17

18 2. Emissions of CO 2 (Mt/yr) at the aggregated level of EU36 18

19 2. Gas consumption (PJ) at the aggregated level of EU36 19

20 2. Gas import (PJ) from extra-eu countries at the aggregated level of EU36 20

21 2. Gas price by time slice and country Optimistic ( /GJ) Competing ( /GJ) EU'Centric ( /GJ) Pessimistic ( /GJ) Period TimeSlice\Region DE FR IT DE FR IT DE FR IT DE FR IT 2020 Fall Spring Summer Winter Fall Spring Summer Winter Fall Spring Summer Winter

22 3. Results dissemination of complex models VEDA Back End (VEDA-BE) on the web - VEDA-BE is a powerful results analysis system used to analyse the model results - Main components: - Import txt files generated from TIMES - User defined sets and tables - Unit conversion - Employs dynamic pivot tables (cubes) for viewing results - Grouping tables in to reports - The PET results are available on the web and can be checked by VEDA-BE tables - Web application for results dissemination and GIS applications 22

23 3. Results dissemination of complex models Results Template Example of standard excel tables updated automatically updated via VEDA- BE 23

24 3. Results dissemination of complex models 24

25 3. Results dissemination of complex models 25

26 3. Results dissemination of complex models 26

27 3. Results dissemination of complex models 27

28 3. GIS maps (work in progress) 28

29 Thank You! Maurizio Gargiulo E4SMA 29