The Hydrogen Energy vector in the future perspective The European Union hydrogen roadmap resulting from HyWays Project.

Transcription

1 The Hydrogen Energy vector in the future perspective The European Union hydrogen roadmap resulting from Project Antonio Mattucci On behalf of Consortium Page 1

2 Outline 1. Why hydrogen? 2. Project description 3. Methodology 4. Major Assumptions 5. First results on - Economy - Emissions - Energy supply security 6. Next steps Page 2

3 Why hydrogen? Page 3

4 Why hydrogen? The hydrogen as energy carrier can tackle both the aspects of climate change and security of energy supply as: Can be obtained from a variety of different primary sources (fossil, renewable, nuclear), in particular: can be produced from fossil fuels, with CO 2 capture and sequestration and this can be a clean way to use these fuels; can be produced from other sources (renewable, nuclear) without CO 2 emissions; Is atmospheric pollutant emission-free in the final use (transport, electricity production, residential, etc.), while pollutant emissions can be heavily reduced during the hydrogen production processes Can increase the energy chain overall efficiency, if used in fuel cells. Page 4

5 Thermal solar Wind turbine Biomass Residential use PV plant H 2 H 2 production plant H 2 Power generation plant CO 2 Fuel cell plant Filling station Natural gas IDROCOMB/MR/2002 Depleted gas well Deep saline acquifer Page 5 HYDROGEN VISION

6 Project description Goals, Partners Page 6

7 Project description Project Goals is an Integrated Project to 4develop a harmonised European Roadmap for H 2 energy, 4provide recommendations for an Action Plan (Roadmap implementation), 4develop a standard procedure for the roadmap process, by means of: describing the future steps towards H 2 s large-scale introduction, considering transport and power sectors (storage medium for renewables), using inputs from EU industry, R&D institutes and member state experts, combining known technology databases and socio-economic analysis, evaluating stakeholder scenarios for sustainable H 2 energy systems and reflecting real life member state opportunities and barriers. Page 7

8 Partners Industry Member states Institutes L-B-Systemtechnik ludwig bölkow systemtechnik APR 04 - JUN 07 in 2 phases of 18 months each; 7.9 M budget and 4 M EU funding Page 8

9 Methodology Modelling approach, Coverage, Tool application Page 9

10 Input Methodology (1) : Modelling Approach Stakeholder input Final vision of a hydrogen economy, H 2 - market penetration scenarios, minimum/ maximum bounds for H 2 feedstocks Techno-economic data E.g. -vehicles (efficiency, investment, life time, drive cycles,.) -production plan (emissions, ) -transport and distribution plants (pipeline dimension, ) Scenario data E.g. - primary energy prices forecast - competitiveness of a country - environmental constraints (CO 2 ) Outcome Modelling Toolbox Energy pathway analysis (E3), Energy system model (MARKAL), Infrastructure model (MOREHyS), Macro-economic models: Input/Ouput model (ISIS) and General Equilibrium model (Pace-T), Emission model (COPERT). Design of the whole energy system H 2 -infrastructure build up: feedstocks, production technologies, transport and distribution, applications Investments and costs GDP and employment development Emission impact Page 10

11 Methodology (2) - Geographical Representation of MS 6 member states partners in Phase I United Kingdom 4 more MS partners in Phase II IRL Spain Norway DK The Netherlands France B Germany L Italy SK SLO HR BIH YU M Finland Poland EE RO BG AL Greece MD CY TIME HORIZON 2010 / 2020 / 2030 / 2050 REGIONAL COVERAGE All of current Europe (27) + associate member states (CH, ISL, ISR, LI, N) and accession states (TR) Page 11

12 Methodology (3): Environment and economic impact assessment 3. Results of MARKAL: Energy and hydrogen system Optimum energy system, e.g.: 25 GW Wind 12 GW NGCC 36 GW 4. COPERT: environment Activity level ISIS and PACE-T: Economy X Emissionfactor Industry Consumers branches. Trade Emission forecast Sectoral GDP effects Welfare effects Sectoral employment effects Page 12

13 Major Assumptions Technological/Economic/Emissions Data Bounds Applied, Scoping Page 13

14 Major Assumptions (1) Each model builds on results from the preceding one, other assumptions: Technology data and energy chains CONCAWE/EUCAR/JRC technology database (2004) 1 st set based on TES (Transport Energy Strategy) analysis (2001), adapted to other stakeholder views Energy market and structural assumptions PRIMES major statistical assumptions (2001/2004), UN World Population Statistics (XXXX), etc., adapted to harmonised partner judgement harmonised H 2 car prices from partners (based on EUCAR assumptions) Economic and societal assumptions Energy sectoral assumptions from models except hydrogen specifics (MARKAL, ISIS) harmonised build-up rates (H 2 cars, stationary FCs) from partners Environmental assumptions TREMOVE database for fleet vehicle composition forecast, normalised to MARKAL results Page 14

15 Fuel price projections in per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) for reference scenario (based on Primes, 2003, reference case) For the reference case PRIMES data were used as Fuel price ( /boe) Major Assumptions (2) Sensitivity analysis PRIMES assumptions Oil Gas Coal EC s interest was to use published data from EC research did not want to get lost in discussions on general energy market issues As the partners felt that the PRIMES assumptions do not well reflect the real development it was decided to carry out sensitivity analyses with higher fuel prices to integrate the hydrogen forecasts. New results are based on WETO-H 2 study Page 15

16 Major Assumptions (3) Projections for passenger car stock in the six current member states: assumes reduced passenger transport demand respect to PRIMES billion vehicle kilometers IT FR DE NO GR NL PRIMES based Page 16

17 Major Assumptions (4) European scoping for hydrogen build up rates Scenarios for potential development of hydrogen vehicles Total share car fleet [%] 2010* High Low * Demonstration vehicles and fleets Scenarios for potential development of hydrogen micro CHP in households Total share of households 2010* High Low * Demonstration sites Page 17

18 Major Assumptions (5) Cost reduction of hydrogen cars (only medium size cars) for two PR* scenarios Retail price of hydrogen vehicle * Progress Ratio PR describes the speed of cost reduction over the cumulative outputc FCV pessimistic PR FCV optimistic PR H2-ICE Gasoline car , Cumulative number of fuel cell vehicles (million) (reference is 2010 gasoline car) Page 18

19 CO2 emission [Mton/year] Major Assumptions (6) Total CO 2 emission constraints for EU 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, EU commitment to Kyoto and post-kyoto for * CO 2 emission reduction has been incorporated in MARKAL baseline scenario. In line with IPCC projections (UNEP, 2001), CO 2 reduction targets have been set to 25% in 2050, respect to 1990 levels Page 19

20 First results Page 20

21 Specific additional cost and savings of a FCV compared with a conventional vehicle Drivers: Additional cost Cost Savings Internalisation of CO 2 0 /t CO2 70 /t CO2 Hydrogen Crude oil fuel Hydrogen drive system Max cost differences: Wind NG 25 $/bbl 100 $/bbl Pessimistic Optimistic PR* PR c/km Max additional cost Max savings * PR = Progress Ratio describes the speed of cost reduction over the cumulative vehicle number Page 21

22 Accumulated hydrogen vehicle investments and number of cars until cost-competitiveness of FCV is reached Cumulative billion Euro Cumulative "Low" oil price world investments $/barrel & pessimistic PR* 0, "Low" oil price world $/barrel & optimistic PR* "High" oil price world 50-60$/barrel Robust: pessimistic & optimistic PR* (without externalities and interest rate, from the beginning of mass production { 10,000 more for a fuel cell car}, worldwide) Page Cumulative million FCV

23 Net employment effects for two penetration scenarios (low = H2L and high = H2H) for net employment Structural identity H2H Today s potential H2L Pessimistic Optimistic (policy) 0,6% 0,4% 0,2% 0,0% -0,2% -0,4% -0,6% High learning rates are assumed for hydrogen passenger cars. The net employment effects for the six Phase I countries are shown for four import/export scenarios in number of employments gained/lost Page 23

24 Road transport pollutant emissions CO emissions NO x emissions PM emissions 120% 120% 120% 100% 100% 100% Year % 60% 40% 20% FR DE GR IT NL NO 80% 60% 40% 20% FR DE GR IT NL NO Year % 60% 40% 20% FR DE GR IT NL NO Year 2020 Year 2040 FR DE GR IT NL 0% NO Countries Year 2000 Year 2020 Year 2040 FR DE GR NO NL IT Countries 0% Year 2020 Year 2040 FR DE GR IT NL 0% NO Countries CO emissions NO x emissions PM emissions High hydrogen penetration scenario road transport emissions normalised to baseline: CO, NO x and PM emissions for the 6 MS in Phase I (DE, FR, GR, IT, NL, NO) Page 24

25 Infrastructure analysis Early user centres and corridors Population centres selected for early markets in all countries Some remote areas / islands selected in FI, GR, UK, PL Most decisive: availability of experts, political commitment, existing demo projects and availability of resources Page 25

26 Next steps IPHE Page 26

27 What is International Partnership for Hydrogen Economy (IPHE)? The International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy was established in 2003 as an international institution to accelerate the transition to a hydrogen economy. The IPHE Partners include U.S., the European Community and many eastern countries like Japan, China and India The IPHE provides a mechanism for partners to organize, coordinate and implement effective, efficient, and focused international research, development, demonstration and commercial utilization activities related to hydrogen and fuel cell technologies. Canada United States Brazil Iceland European Community Russian Federation China Japan Republic of Korea India New Zealand Australia Page 27

28 The Project -IPHE Short Description IPHE is a specific support action (SSA) to assess and compare the European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap prepared by with similar activities carried out by other IPHE partners I st Phase In a first step, it aims at an in-depth assessment and comparison of the individual elements of the national/ regional strategies, modelling approaches and experiences in the EU and the US. II nd Phase Activities In a second step, the project aims at broadening its scope within IPHE by including and involving other IPHE partners like Japan, China, India etc. Workshops will be held, introducing these partners into the EU-US work and getting them involved in this process. Infrastructure analysis Stakeholder Consultation Actor Analysis Economic modelling Well-to-Wheel analysis Cashflows analysis Page 28

29 Partners Coordinator Modellers: R. Wurster (LBST) Ludwig-Bölkow- Systemtechnik GmbH (LBST) DE- The Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) NL- Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research FhG-ISI DE- Institute of Mechanical Engineering (IDMEC)-PT- Observers: Oil & Gas DaimlerChrysler (DE) (Automotive Sector) Acciona Biocombustibles (ES) (Utility sector) GE Oil & Gas Nuovo Pignone (I) (Process sector) Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC) EU- Total France (F) (Energy sector) National Renewable Energy Laboratory representing Midwest Research Institute USA Page 29

30 Acknowledgement This project is financed by the partners and by funds from the European Commission under FP6 Priority [1.6] contract number SES6-CT We would like to thank the EC that the European Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Platform provides the right framework for the discussion process, and the partners for their continued support and inspiration. Page 30