The UK s Climate Change Act.

Transcription

1 The UK s Climate Change Act 1

2 1. Commi6ee on Climate Change Du9es Recommend 2050 target: 60%, 80%, or other First 3 budgets: Where in Trajectory from today How much buy-in of credits allowed Should international aviation & shipping be included CO 2 budgets or all GHGs Identify implications of proposed budgets for Competitiveness Security of supply Fuel poverty Fiscal revenues Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland Ancillary environmental effects Annual reports on Progress against budgets On request (e.g. Electricity market reform, renewable energy, energy efficiency policy) 2

3 Structure 1. The 2050 target 2. An indica8ve 2030 target 3. Budget proposals 4. Budget costs and policy implica8ons 3

4 Fundamentals of climate science Global climate change is already happening There is a high degree of confidence that this is largely a result of human ac8vity Without ac8on, there is a high risk of warming well beyond 2 degrees This would have significant consequences for human welfare and ecological systems 4

5 (i) Required global emissions reduc9on: climate change damage Atlantic hurricanes 70% more energetic since 1970 s European heatwaves common by 2040s. In ,000 people died 20-33% of all species at risk of extinction by 2100 Flooding 17 m Bangladeshis at risk and globally m could be affected by 2100 Peru s glaciers will melt by 2015 effecting 2/3rds of population Conflict 2.7 billion at risk as a result of climate change e.g. Sudan Drought 11 million effected in 2006 in Africa Maldives 90% of coral destroyed 5

6 Required global emissions reduc9on: avoiding dangerous climate change Assessment of damage Decision rule keep temperature change close to 2 C and probability of 4 C increase at very low level (less than 1%) Global trajectories considered Early or later peak (2015 vs. 2030) 3%/4% annual emissions reduction Required global emissions reduction of 50% GtCO 2 e emissions in GtCO 2 e in

7 (ii) Appropriate UK contribu9on 50% global reduction Burden share Alternative methodologies (contract and converge, intensity convergence, triptych etc.) Equal per capita emissions: GtCO 2 e total at global level in 2050 Implies tco 2 e per capita All GHGs CO 2 e per capita gives a UK reduction of at least 80% in 2050 Aviation and shipping included 7

8 The UK s 2050 target 670 MtCO 2 e Interna8onal avia8on & shipping* Agriculture non CO 2 Other non CO 2 & LUC Industry (heat and industrial processes) 76% cut (=80% vs. 1990) Residen8al & commercial heat Domes8c transport 159 MtCO 2 e Power genera8on * bunker fuels basis 8

9 We have developed a feasible and cost effec9ve planning scenario for 2030 that is compa9ble with the 2050 target 2050 allowed emissions 2 Scenario emissions to Reduc8on on % 65% 9

10 Power sector: Emissions intensity will have to decrease, whilst demand is likely to increase... Source for 2050: range of MARKAL model runs for CCC (2010) 10

11 Transport: Emissions reduc9on will come from reducing g/km, while km likely to increase Car km Car emissions Car g / km Vans: 17% emissions reduc9on to 2030 HGVs: 33% emissions reduc9on to

12 Transport: Low carbon vehicles need to be 60% of new sales in 2030 Share of new car sales 2030 Share of miles Emissions Intensity Conven9onal cars Plug in hybrids Pure electric vehicles 40% 70% g/km 40% 20% 50 g/km 20% 10% 0 g/km Average emissions intensity in 2030 New cars purchased: 52g/km (versus 150g/km today) All cars on road: 81 g/km (versus 173 g/km today) 12

13 Buildings: Emissions reduc9on to 2030 from improved efficiency and shia to use of (low carbon) electricity 13

14 Emissions reduc9ons will have to accelerate again from 2030 to % p.a. reduc9on allowed emissions 2 Scenario emissions to % p.a. reduc9on

15 Interim, Intended and Domes9c Ac9on budgets

16 Costs and investment requirements Fourth budget and indica9ve 2030 target can be met at under 1% of GDP Limited energy price increases beyond 2020 (e.g. low carbon power genera9on compe99ve at HMT carbon prices for 2020) No addi9onal cost implica9ons to 2020 Underpins current policy approach: electricity market reform, green deal, etc. Adjustment of traded sector cap in line with EU ETS for 2020s (envisage 9ghtening in line with required global path). 16

17 CO 2 emissions historic and future required 17

18 Policies to drive the step change Electricity market reform CCS demonstra9on, renewables demonstra9on and deployment Green Deal Energy efficiency cer9fica9on Climate Change Agreements Buildings and industry policy ra9onalisa9on Renewable heat support New policies for agriculture 18

19 Summary of recommenda9ons The UK s 2050 target of an 80% emissions reduc8on remains appropriate. Implies 85% reduc8on excluding interna8onal avia8on and shipping. By 2030 the UK should aim for a 60% reduc8on on 1990 excluding interna8onal avia8on and shipping = a 46% reduc8on from today; this is a back ended path to Legislate the Domes9c Ac9on budget (1950 MtCO 2 e) now Aim to deliver this through domes8c abatement (without credits) Precise mix of abatement effort to be determined in future as uncertain8es are resolved Cost of mee8ng budget is 1% of GDP; less ambi8ous budget implies higher costs and higher energy prices to 2050 Policy implica9ons: recommended budget consistent with current high level policy approach but need for detailed policies with strong incen8ves in key areas 19