SENSE - Self Erecting Nacelle and Service System Estimated Cost Savings

Transcription

1 - Self Erecting Nacelle and Service System Estimated Cost Savings 1. Modelling Work This document sets out the preliminary final results from the combined cost and marine operations modelling undertaken as part of the Innovate UK Energy Catalyst funded project. These estimates for the reduction in the Levelised Cost of Energy (LcoE) were obtained by simulating the and 25-year operation of two baseline offshore windfarm sites, the size, location and site details of which are considered typical of sites expected to be developed in European waters and beyond between 2020 and Further details of these baseline sites are provided in Section 4 below Reference Site A is a shallow water site (<50m) of 1200MW where it is possible to use current equipment and techniques such as jack up crane vessels to install and maintain the turbines. A monopile foundation is assumed for this site. Reference Site B is a deep water site (>70m) of 1200MW where current jack up crane vessels cannot be used. A jacket foundation is assumed for this site. Simulations using the cost and marine operations models compare the performance of the system against the use of current installation and service equipment, taking account also of known future developments which may improve the performance of current equipment and processes. Each simulation uses identical wind and sea states during the installation period and a typical year in operation. Ten different years of weather were used to further increase the range of the comparisons. The simulation accounts for per day costs of each different type of vessel and calculates costs for total usage (including waiting for the wind and wave conditions to be within the limits for each operation of the installation phase). The simulation also calculates the cost and downtime from major failures requiring heavy-lift capability, assuming a failure rate of once per turbine per ten years of operation. The use of a three-legged lattice tower rather than a conventional tubular tower provides an ideal interface for the system. It is anticipated that with further work this concept tower design will result in more cost saving than the 0.14%-0.15% currently predicted. 2. LCoE Reductions The benefits of the various elements of the technology in reducing the LCoE are shown in the tables below. LCOE benefit Total process time lattice tower OMS - major failure OMS - blade repairs Shallow site A -3.89% 0.48% -1.42% -0.13% -2.49% -0.12% Deep site B -9.27% -0.84% -0.98% -0.15% -7.04% -0.18% Total wind farm cost saving CAPEX saving m Annual OPEX saving and revenue increase m per year Shallow site A Deep site B Attmt 2 - Results F Website.docx 1

2 3. Marine Operations Modelling Estimates of the reduction in LCoE by using have been derived by simulating and O&M operations. The tasks associated with the standard methodology and the methodology have been catalogued together with their associated vessel requirements and metocean limits. The processes have then been simulated using a time history of wind and wave data from a metocean hindcast model, to estimate how weather downtime impacts the sequence of tasks. Examples of the resulting time history of turbine installation are shown below. Time history simulations of the of a 1200MW windfarm using a standard process. Time history simulations of the of a 1200MW windfarm using in a single phase. A similar process is used to undertake simulations of O&M associated with major repairs of turbines i.e. those for which can offer benefit. The expected time between a turbine failure and the ability to repair the failure is calculated by assessing the expected weather downtime for O&M tasks using the wind and wave hindcast time history. Once the expected average wait time for dealing with major turbine failures has been calculated, using standard methods and, the turbine downtime is estimated combining wait times with expected rates of failures for major repairs. Attmt 2 - Results F Website.docx 2

3 4. Baseline sites 4.1 Reference Site A Shallow Water This baseline site is in the range of sites expected to be developed in European waters between 2020 and The site characteristics line-up with previous analysis projects, enabling correlation with previous work, and are similar to the site characteristics of future projects within the East Anglia and Hornsea UK Round 3 wind farm zones Distance to shore - km Depth - m European Projects Proposed site Wind farm details Wind farm size standard (large) MW 1200 Wind turbine rating MW 8 No of turbines 150 Turbine spacing (downwind / across wind) km 1.6 / 1.3 Foundation Monopile Blade length m 85 Hub height m 120 Nacelle and rotor mass t 650 Wind farm life years 25 Site conditions Depth m 30 Distance from Construction and OMS port km 90 Construction and OMS port location Tidal estuary, 15km from open sea (similar to Hull) Distance from shore & grid km 70 Mean wind speed at 100m m/s 10.2 Tidal range m 4 Ground conditions 10m dense sand on 15m stiff clay, no failed jack-ups during turbine installation due to low bearing pressure, gradients or boulders Attmt 2 - Results F Website.docx 3

4 Project data Date of first operation 2023 Nominal FID date 2020 WACC 8% during 6% during operation Conventional monopile installation process Conventional turbine installation process overview turbine installation process overview Single jack-up to install monopiles and transition pieces 5 lifts from jacked-up barge loaded with all components Jack-up installs towers, then installed from a single vessel loaded with two units 4.2 Reference Site B Deep Water This site is in the range of sites expected to be developed in European waters excluding the Baltic and North Seas, and outside Europe (where shallow water sites are much less common) between 2020 and Wind farm details Wind farm size large MW 1200 Wind turbine rating MW 8 No of turbines 150 Turbine spacing (downwind / across wind) km 1.6 / 1.3 Foundation Jacket Blade length m 85 Hub height m 120 Nacelle and rotor mass t 650 Wind farm life years 25 Site conditions Depth m 70 Distance from Construction and OMS port km 30 Construction and OMS port location Tidal estuary, 15km from open sea Distance from grid km 70 Mean wind speed at 100m m/s 10.2 Tidal range m 4 Ground conditions n/a Project data Date of first operation 2023 Nominal FID date 2020 WACC 8% during Attmt 2 - Results F Website.docx 4

5 6% during operation Conventional jacket installation process Conventional turbine installation process overview turbine installation process overview Seabed pre-piled, then jackets installed by large semi-submersible DP vessel lifting jackets from self-propelled DP barges Complete turbines assembled in port and collected in sets of six and then installed by large semi-submersible DP vessel once foundation installation completed Semi-submersible installs towers, then installed from a two vessels each loaded with two units Attmt 2 - Results F Website.docx 5