Using MOVES to Estimate On-Road Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Energy Consumption

Transcription

1 Using MOVES to Estimate On-Road Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Energy Consumption NTAQS August 7 th, 2012 Chris Dresser U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

2 Overview of Presentation EPA s MOVES GHG Guidance Key Features of MOVES for estimating greenhouse gases (GHGs) and fuel consumption MOVES Scales of Analysis 2

3 EPA s Draft MOVES GHG Guidance Explains how to use MOVES to estimate: GHG emissions from on-road vehicles to create state or local inventories, or Total energy consumption from the on-road sector There is no federal requirement for creating on-road GHG inventories Use of GHG guidance would be entirely voluntary GHG Guidance differs from SIP and conformity guidance e.g., the National scale can be used for GHG analyses Released January for public comment EPA comment period ended March 31, 2012 Future update will include MOVES2010b features and user feedback 3

4 Guidance Organization Section 1: Introduction Discusses why use MOVES to estimate GHG emissions Encourages those with no prior MOVES experience to use it for GHG analyses Section 2: Modeling Approaches Choice of analysis scales, and data needed for each Difference between Inventory and Emission Rates Options for modeling a geographic area larger than a county Aggregating over different periods of time 4

5 Guidance Organization Section 3: Creating a Run Specification File Making selections for the run through the Navigation Panel Section 4: Importing Local Data Use of County Data Manager, with the County scale Use of the Data Importer, with the National scale Note, Source Type Population and VMT cannot be entered with the Data Importer Appendices A: Table mapping MOBILE6.2 vehicle types to MOVES source types B: Step by step instructions for including local VMT information when using the National scale 5

6 MOVES and GHG Estimation EPA s best tool for estimating on-road GHGs: CO 2, N 2 O, CH 4, and elemental carbon (black carbon) MOVES2010a, released August 2010, improves GHG estimates because it includes: New car and light truck GHG emission standards affecting model years 2012 and later Updated effects of CAFÉ standards for model years Guidance also applies to MOVES2010b Released April 2012 Key features of MOVES: Allows distinct modeling of different operating modes, such as driving, vehicle start-up, idling Allows assessment of various travel efficiency strategies on GHGs Gives users greater ability to include local information to customize a model run Can model the year 1990 and any year Can model various geographic scales 6

7 MOVES Emissions MOVES includes a different emissions rate for each combination of: Source, Age group, and Operating mode Gas-LDV-MY years Gas-LDT-MY years low speed coast; 20 mph, VSP 0-3 kw/tonne accelerating; 55 mph, VSP kw/tonne Information can be aggregated for total emissions MOVES calculation of emissions also depends on e.g., meteorology, fuel, etc. 7

8 MOVES and Operating Modes MOVES accounts for specific types of vehicle behavior Improves emissions estimates MOVES uses a distribution of time vehicles spend in different operating modes (bins) Operating mode what the vehicle is doing Vehicles use different amounts of energy in different operating modes ( vehicle specific power or VSP) MOVES defines 23 operating mode bins for running: combinations of speed and VSP Also includes additional operating modes for starts, extended idling, etc. 8

9 < > Energy Consumption by Operating Mode MY 2010 Gasoline Passenger Car 25-50mph <25mph < >12 < >30 VSP (kw/tonne) >50mph 9 braking idle Energy in kj/hour

10 Example of How OpMode Distribution Can Differ by Road Type Distribution of Time by Mode 30% Percent of Time 20% 10% 0% VSP/Speed Bin Rural Highway Urban Non-Highway 10

11 Why use MOVES to estimate GHGs instead of fuel sales? MOVES designed to account for changes in vehicle activity (e.g., speed changes related to congestion) Allows users to evaluate different scenarios of vehicle activity MOVES estimates based on VMT in an area The smaller the area, the more likely fuel sales will either over or under estimate emissions MOVES can better estimate other GHGs (N 2 O, CH 4 ) and elemental carbon These emissions depend more on the fleet composition and controls on those vehicles than straight fuel consumption 11

12 National Fuel Consumption Comparison Billion gallons (Bgal) gasoline diesel MOVES Fuel sales MOVES Fuel sales

13 MOVES Scales of Analysis Three scales have common emission rates State and local GHG inventories can be done with either the County or National scales: 1. County scale Relies on user-supplied data 2. National scale Uses default fleet and vehicle activity data within model, unless user includes local information Could be used for GHG inventories Cannot be used for regulatory purposes (SIPs or transportation conformity) 3. Project scale not covered in EPA s draft GHG guidance Relies on user-supplied data Used to analyze emissions from specific projects, rather than estimate emissions for a larger area 13

14 County Scale Could be used to estimate GHG emissions for: An individual county A customized modeling area ( custom domain ) made up of several counties and/or portions of counties An entire state or mega-region, by using either every county in the area, or representative county(-ies) At this scale, MOVES expects users to enter local data via the County Data Manager However, national default data could be used for some inputs Could be used to Estimate an annual inventory, or Examine on-road GHG impacts of regional travel changes, if the travel model is sensitive to them such as addition of public transit/commuter rail, changes in traffic volumes, routes, and speeds, etc. 14

15 National Scale Could be used to estimate GHG emissions for: One or more counties One or more states Cannot be used for developing SIPs or transportation conformity analyses; County scale must be used With the National scale, the model uses information from within its default database, unless the user includes local information Use caution relying on the default database reduces precision of analysis Some national averages are applied to the modeling area as-is Some national information (VMT, vehicle population) is apportioned to the modeling area, based on factors within the model Some information in the database differs by county, but based on survey data 15

16 Important Inputs for GHG Inventories EPA encourages areas to use local information for most inputs, but especially for VMT and vehicle population EPA believes users will always have more precise VMT than the National scale default VMT for the area National scale default VMT for an area is based on 1999 national VMT, grown to the chosen year, then apportioned to the model area Guidance describes how to include local VMT information when using the National scale Should improve GHG estimates compared to not including it Guidance recommends using the County scale to include local vehicle population information No easy way to include it using the National scale 16

17 Project Scale Could be used to estimate GHG emissions from a specific highway or transit project Could be used to examine GHG impacts of changes that affect driving behavior on a specific facility, e.g: Adding a lane to highway or arterial Synchronizing traffic signals along an arterial Adding or improving transit service on a route User would need to input information on how the change affects detailed vehicle driving patterns Not covered in this guidance document 17

18 For More Information EPA s website for state and local transportation resources: Gateway for current EPA policy, guidance, tools, partnerships, resources, etc. for emission reduction strategies at state and local level EPA s website for estimating on-road GHG emissions: EPA s MOVES website: Software, technical documentation, conference and meeting presentations, FAQs, and other helpful background materials 18