UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG LIBRARY. Hong Kong Collection. gift from Hong Kong Gov't Printer

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2 UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG LIBRARY Hong Kong Collection gift from Hong Kong Gov't Printer

3 Contents Preface Page 1. Introduction 2 2. Strategy Content 5 3 Strategy Development 8 4. Issues for Strategy Formulation Recommended Strategies Strategies Appraisal Implementation Government's Selected Strategy 45

4 Preface The Port and Airport Development Strategy (PADS) Study V" was commissioned in March 1988 to review the long term provision of new port and airport facilities, together with associated transport infrastructure and urban development. Its purpose was to assist Government in selecting a comprehensive development strategy that would support the continued economic development of Hong Kong. The main thrust of the Study was therefore two-fold: first, to formulate alternative practical Strategies which could serve as a framework for long term expansion of port and airport facilities; and secondly, to present a comprehensive appraisal of the Strategies, containing the information necessary for Government to make a well-founded choice. This report summarises the main findings and conclusions of the Study, a full account of which is given in the Final Report.

5 1. Introduction 1.1 Background In recent years, Hong Kong has developed into one of the world's busiest ports and a regional centre for manufacturing, commerce and trade. It has secured a leading role among the economies of South East Asia by its remarkable capacity for seizing opportunities and adapting rapidly to changing economic circumstances. Political and economic developments in the People's Republic of China (PRC) over the last decade have led to a major revival in Hong Kong's role as an entrepot handling much of the PRC's external trade. The Territory's location at the mouth of the Pearl River makes it an ideal trade and communications centre to serve the rapidly developing Guangdong Province (see Figure 1.1). To support this development, Hong Kong has expanded its basic infrastructure, including port, airport and transport facilities, in line with growing demands. Expansion has until now followed an incremental approach, with the advantages of expediency, speed of implementation, and limited frontend costs. However, both the port and airport are approaching capacity limits which can only be overcome by opening up new areas for development and undertaking investment in major new infrastructure. The size and cost of the capital works required to meet forecast future demands are great and the implementation issues complex. Hong Kong's busy port Over the past decade considerable thought has been given to the question of how best to provide for Hong Kong's further expansion. Alternative sites for a replacement airport were studied as early as 1973, with the island of Chek Lap Kok off the north coast of Lantau being subsequently considered as the favoured location. During the early 1980s, a series of subregional studies of urban development potential was undertaken and the results were fed into a Territorial Development Strategy. This established a broad framework for urban and transport infrastructure expansion into the 1990s. Of particular significance for the PADS Study were the North Lantau Development Investigations, which demonstrated the potential role of Lantau in accommodating substantial urban development, with or without a replacement airport. Figure 1.1 Regional Context Ouangdiou Huang Tian 4* JiangmenShi 0Zh hanshi - Huizhou Shi Yantian Huiyang Shenzhen Special Economic Zone LEGEND 4 Existing and proposed airports Existing and proposed ports Railways Main roads Guangzhou - Shenzhen Zhuhai Superhighway (Stage 1) - Zhuhai Shi Zhuhai Special Economic Zone Macau Hong Kong km

6 In 1986, Government completed a Port Development Strategy Study which looked at the opportunities for port expansion to Later that year, a private consortium led by Hope well Holdings put forward alternative schemes for a major development in the Western Harbour and on East Lantau which combined provision of a new airport and extensive deepwater port facilities with other urban uses. It was in response to the need to choose a clear way forward, in the face of the wide range of opportunities and proposals which had been put forward, that Government initiated the Port and Airport Development Strategy (PADS) Study in The aim of the study was to produce a medium to long term strategy which would provide the context for decisions on airport and port development. The Brief also required the formulation of Recommended Strategies for each of three airport location scenarios: Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C airport retained at Kai Tak airport relocated to Chek Lap Kok, North Lantau airport relocated to East Lantau / Western Harbour It was a subsequent Government requirement that Strategies B and C should provide for airport relocation as soon as practicable. The final choice from among these Strategies was to be a decision for Government. The Study's role in this choice was to establish clearly the full implications of selecting any one of the Recommended Strategies. The Consultants were required to produce strategies which would provide for forecast needs up to However, it was considered more important to demonstrate that the Strategies would perform well at the initial and intermediate stages than in the later years. Evaluations were therefore undertaken on the basis of performance up to The Strategies show the distribution of development to that year but indicate further development potential to In parallel with the PADS Study, a number of related studies were in progress and, where appropriate, close liaison was maintained. The aim was to minimise any conflicts that might arise be- "tween the port and airport proposals and other Territory requirements. Of particular importance were: Kai Tak Airport 1.2 Purpose of the Study The Study Brief required "...a flexible development strategy for the integrated, phased provision of new port facilities and a suitably located international airport, along with related infrastructure and associated urban development. The strategy must meet forecast needs over the medium and long terms in a way which would be acceptable from an overall strategic planning point of view, taking^ account of a possible range of demand forecasts and likely resource constraints." o the Alternative Replacement Airport Sites (ARAS) Study - considering an alternative location for the replacement airport in the Western Harbour / East Lantau area o "Metroplan" - a Government in-house study examining ways of restructuring and improving the long term living and working environment in the urban area o the Financing and Institutional Study (FINS) - considering institutional frameworks and financing opportunities for the PADS developments

7 Other major studies which had significant interaction with the Study included the Kai Tak Consultancy, the Second Comprehensive Transport Study (CTS2), the Route 3 Feasibility Study and the Sewage Strategy Study. Figure 1.2 Port Cargo Forecasts 1.3 Parameters The Study was based on many assumptions about the future socio-economic and institutional environment within which the selected Strategy will have to function. The most fundamental parameters covered: o gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts o port cargo forecasts o airport passenger and cargo forecasts o territorial socio-economic projections o strategic development framework o land availability o financial resource availability. The level of trade to be accommodated in the Strategies was provided by the Government's Working Group on Port Cargo Forecasts chaired by the Government Economist. The forecast tonnage throughputs were based on past relationships between throughput and GDP, projected to the year No capacity limitations on the port or loss of trade to competing ports in the region were assumed. The forecasts showed increases in total tonnage (inward and outward) for direct shipment, transhipment and river trade, by factors of 5.8, 14.6 and 9.3 respectively over the period 1986 to 2011 (see Figure 1.2). Because of the considerable uncertainties surrounding the large scale, long term and complex developments proposed, considerable emphasis was placed on assessing the flexibility of strategy options to cope with real changes in the underlying assumptions.

8 2. Strategy Content The land uses provided for in the Strategies comprise: port facilities, container port back-up facilities, airport, industry and warehousing, and residential development. Two types of water uses, moorings (anchorages and buoys) and typhoon shelters, were also identified. The space requirements for each of these uses by the years 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011 were estimated on the basis of demand forecasts and appropriate provision standards. 2.1 Port Facilities The Recommended Strategies incorporate three types of port facility : container terminals, multi-purpose terminals and cargo working areas. It was assumed that the container terminals would handle all fully cellular container ships, the multi-purpose terminals would handle all additional cargo from general cargo ocean-going ships and that cargo working areas, both public and private, would continue to deal with the existing level of cargoes from mid-stream buoys, and river trade cargoes (see Figure 2.1). On this basis, berth facility requirements for 2006 and 2011 were estimated as shown in Table 2.1. Table 2.1 Port Facility Berth Facility Requirements Container Terminal Multi-Purpose Terminal Cargo Working Area Quay Length in Metres ,080 8,000 5, ,880 13,200 9,550 Additional requirements for buoys and anchorage areas, and typhoon shelters (excluding approximately 750 hectares of existing buoy areas that will require reprovisioning under currently planned harbour reclamation schemes) were estimated as shown in Table 2.2. Table 2.2 Facility Mooring Area and Typhoon Shelter Requirements Buoys and Anchorage Areas Typhoon Shelters 2.2 Container Port Back-Up , Hectares , Off-port back-up comprises those facilities essential to the productivity of the port but which do not require waterfront. In the context of the container port, this relates specifically to container freight stations, empty container depots and container vehicle parks. Much existing back-up land is held on Short Term Tenancies on sites programmed for permanent uses and many empty container depots are on former agricultural land, which can be visually intrusive. Such back-up land should be reprovided in PADS developments. Empty container depots and container vehicle parks may be suitable uses for land held on Short Term Tenancy agreements, but the Consultants recommend that some back-up land should be made available on longer leases in order to encourage investment in more efficient handling equipment and in multi-storey facilities. Kwai Chung

9 Figure 2.1 Port Facility Requirement for Ocean-going Vessels Types o Types of Vessel Additional requirements for 2006 and 2011, including the provision of permanent sites to replace existing facilities on Short Term Tenancies and non-designated sites, were estimated as shown in Table Airports Scenario A was based on the existing single runway airport at Kai Tak, upgraded according to the recommendations of the Kai Tak Consultancy to provide a maximum capacity of 24 million passengers per year, sufficient for projected passenger demand to 1996 (see Figure 2.2). year Table 2.3 Container Port Back-Up Requirements Additional Back-Up T-? '1. Facility Container Freight Stations Empty Container Depots Container Vehicle Parks Requirements (Net ha) Scenario B incorporated a replacement airport at Chek Lap Kok, with twin runways at a separation of 900 metres and a total initial area of 956 hectares. The airport would have an estimated maximum capacity of 79 million passengers per year which, with demand management, Civil Aviation Department (CAD) estimate would be reached by Empty Container Storage The airport for Scenario C was based on twin runways at a separation of 2,200 metres on an initial site area of 1,092 hectares. It would provide an estimated maximum capacity of 94 million passengers per year which, with demand management, CAD estimate would be reached by The selection of its location in the Western Harbour area was the task of the Alternative Replacement Airport Sites (ARAS) consultancy, undertaken for CAD. Container Freight Station

10 2.5 Residential Development Employment at a relocated airport would be sufficient to provide the economic base for a new town or community of about 150,000 persons. Such a community was included in Scenarios B and C. Other residential areas were also included if they could contribute to balancing commuter flows across major transport links, provided they would accommodate cost-effectively a district of at least 100,000 persons. Table 2.4 Summary of Strategy Land Use Requirements Deep waterfront industral use Land Uses Container Terminals Cumulative Gross Area (Hectares) Industrial Land Multi-Purpose Terminals The Port Cargo Forecasts imply that manufacturing production in the Territory will grow by a factor of 4.7 in tonnage terms to 2011, despite a more or less constant industrial workforce. Major changes in industrial organization and location must be expected, particularly as existing industrial areas have very limited capacity to accommodate additional flows of raw materials and goods. Cargo Working Areas * Port Back-Up General Industry Deep Waterfront Industry The Strategies accommodate 25% of the Territory's substantial projected industrial and warehousing land requirement by 2006, and 30% by Gross land requirements for PADS developments to 2006 and 2011 were estimated at 440 and 480 hectares respectively for industry requiring deep waterfront sites and 390 and 870 hectares for general industry and warehousing. Residential (Minimum with replacement airport) * The figures given exclude 35 hectares of Public Cargo Working Area currently programmed for development by Marine Department Figure 2.2 Airport Traffic Forecast Year

11 3. Strategy Development 3.1 Study Method The Study process, which is illustrated in Figure 3.1, consisted of an initial generation of strategy options designed to satisfy the forecast requirements for port, airport and associated urban and infrastructure development, followed by a series of evaluation exercises. During the first two evaluations, termed Coarse Screening and Comparative Evaluation, the large number of Initial Options was narrowed down to one Recommended Strategy for each airport location scenario. The final evaluation stage, the Strategies Appraisal, set out, on a comparable basis, the advantages and disadvantages of pursuing each of the Recommended Strategies, to allow a final choice by Government. At the outset of the Study a set of goals was established, which the Strategies should aim to fulfil. These goals, together with the more specific objectives derived from them and the criteria used to measure performance against the objectives, were used to formulate, evaluate and select options. For each evaluation stage, the original framework of goals and objectives was reappraised and revised to respond to new emphases or the increased levels of detail available on option performance. The evaluation method used was essentially similar at all stages and consisted of comparing the performances of options against the established goals and objectives. Evaluation tables of various kinds were drawn up, recording the relative performances of each of the options against each of the objectives. In the case of particularly complex aspects of the Study, relating to transport, hydraulics and water quality, and air quality, computer modelling exercises were undertaken. Representative options were tested to assist in Strategy formulation and to generate performance data for the evaluations. Most importantly, all three Recommended Strategies were subjected to comprehensive tests of their transport performance in the year The results provided an important input into the economic appraisal of the Strategies. Figure 3.1 Study Process Evaluation and Refinement of Options ARAS, FINS, METRO PL AN

12 3.2 Initial Options The physical opportunities available for accommodating the development requirements set out in Section 2 were assessed by considering the nature, extent and severity of constraints on developing various potential areas. The constraints analysed included: o existing land uses o environmental quality o marine conditions o requirements imposed by the airport o geotechnical factors Under each Scenario, Initial Options were assembled from the various combinations available for locating and arranging the airport and the port (see Figure 3.2). Further opportunities for variation arose from alternative forms of transport infrastructure linking the new and existing development, and alternative ways of accommodating other urban uses, such as housing and industry. Forty-six Initial Options were drawn up. These covered five airport locations: Kai Tak, Chek Lap Kok and three potential sites in the Western Harbour identified in the ARAS Study. The Options also responded to three distinct mixes of port facility for handling general cargo and container vessels (Port Mixes A, B and C). Port Mixes A and B relied substantially on mid-stream buoys, with a higher proportion of container vessels handled at container terminals in B, than in A. Port Mix C assumed all additional cargo from general cargo oceangoing ships would be handled at new multi-purpose terminals, and that all fully cellular ships would be handled at container terminals. Each Initial Option was presented as a plan showing the distribution of the main land uses, marine facilities and transport infrastructure required to satisfy demands forecast for 2006, with developments to 2011 indicated in general terms. 3.3 Coarse Screening and Selection of Preferred Options The purpose of Coarse Screening was to identify those Initial Options which offered, either in whole or in part, the greatest potential for further elaboration and refinement into Preferred Options. Figure 3.2 Initial Option Opportunities Castle Peak TaiPo Tolo Harbour Castle Peak TaiPo Tolo Harbour North Lantau West Kowloon \ Tsing Chau Tsai '""yf* North Lantau West Kowloon ^Tsing Chau Tsai Peng Chau Western Harbour Western Harbour Scenario "A" Kai Tak Airport Retained Scenario "C" ARAS Airport LEGEND Castle Peak TaiPo Tolo Harbour Harbour area J Development area JL Airport North Lantau Tsing Chau Tsai I *^ "i Access corridor Western Harbour Scenario "B" Chek Lap Kok Airport

13 In the Coarse Screening evaluation, the most significant differences between Options were found to be those concerned with port efficiency, cost, transport performance and flexibility. Environmental quality was also important, particularly in so far as it related to impacts on Tolo Harbour. The selection of Options for refinement therefore took most account of performance against these goals. Options were eliminated if they performed particularly poorly with respect to one or more of the heavily weighted goals, without having compensating advantages. The best of the remaining Initial Options were retained for refinement into twelve Preferred Options: four for Scenario A, three for Scenario B and five for Scenario C. Some of the main issues affecting the selection of Preferred Options were: o Selection of Port Mix An economic assessment was carried out of the relative costs and benefits of mid-stream cargo handling compared with cargo handling at container and multi-purpose terminals. While capital costs of handling a given cargo throughput were broadly similar for the three types of facility, there were clear operating cost advantages to container and multi-purpose terminals compared with mid-stream operations. It was agreed therefore that the Preferred Options should be based only on Port Mix C. This implies a policy decision to establish multi-purpose terminals. Tolo Harbour o Port Development in Tolo Harbour From the point of view of ship and cargo handling, Tolo Harbour is an excellent location for a port. Although extensive dredging would be required to provided sufficient depth for container ships, siltationis not expected to be high and subsequent maintenance dredging would be minor. Areas suitable for development could accommodate all container and multi-purpose terminal requirements to beyond Mid-Stream Handling

14 Tolo Harbour's potential for port development must, however, be weighed against environmental constraints. The area contains large tracts of open land and water,much of which is among the most scenic in Hong Kong and designated as Country Park, Inshore Water Recreation Area and Recreation Priority Area. These areas are easily accessible to major population concentrations, especially those in the North East New Territories. The deteriorating water quality in Tolo Harbour is well documented but measures are in hand to improve it by curtailing livestock farming, controlling industrial discharges and exporting effluent from Sha Tin to the Kai Tak Nullah. It was concluded that port developments in Tolo Harbour should be avoided until all potential alternative areas have been developed. None of the Recommended Strategies proposes port development in Tolo Harbour up to Figure 3.3 Short-listed ARAS Sites Tsing Yi -Area of Search Green Island An important conclusion of the Coarse Screening was that the Options found most worthy of retention and refinement in Scenario C were all based on ARAS Site 3. The selection of ARAS Site 3 was later confirmed by Civil Aviation Department on the basis of the comparison of the three sites undertaken in the ARAS Study. This took account of airport safety and efficiency, cost, transport performance, impacts on environment, communities, marine operations and strategic development opportunities. o Freight Railway from the Port to the PRC In each Scenario, one Preferred Option showed a concentration of all existing and future container terminals on a peninsula reclamation extending into the Western Harbour from Lantau. The concept sought to maximise the viability of a freight railway line from the port to the PRC. Further work showed, however, that the percentage of containers that might be transferred to a rail line was likely to be limited. Furthermore, there were major uncertainties about how, when and at what cost the Kwai Chung container terminals might be relocated. Consequently, additional Preferred Options were devised which retained the peninsula concept but did not involve relocation of the Kwai Chung container terminals or a freight railway from the port to the PRC. The new options nevertheless did not preclude the inclusion of a freight railway at a later date. 3.4 Comparative Evaluation and Selection of Recommended Strategies ARAS N Site 7 Hei Ling 1 Chau Cheung Chau \ARAS\ \ Site 2 6km Lamma Island The purpose of the Comparative Evaluation was to assess the Preferred Options and to establish one Recommended Strategy for each airport location scenario. The Comparative Evaluation incorporated a wide-ranging economic assessment of each of the Preferred Options. A considerable range of quantified information was therefore generated on both capital and operating costs. The Recommended Strategies were not selected directly from the best-performing Preferred Options. Rather, the understanding gained from the analyses underlying the Comparative Evaluation was used to develop hybrid strategies from the components of the original Options, incorporating further improvements where possible. Layout of Western Harbour Airport o Selection of Alternative Replacement Airport Site The selection of an Alternative Replacement Airport in the Western Harbour was the subject of the parallel ARAS consultancy study. At the time the Initial Options were being generated, the ARAS Consultants had drawn up a shortlist of three potential airport sites: two to the west of Lamma Island on an approximately north-south axis (Sites 2 and 3) and one to the south of Cheung Chau (Site 7) with east-west oriented runways (see Figure 3.3). A comparison was made between the two Options in each Scenario based on a port peninsula off north-east Lantau. In each case, the Option incorporating container terminals relocated from Kwai Chung had clear disadvantages in terms of insufficient economic justification for the freight railway line to the port and uncertainties surrounding container terminal relocation. There were no significant counter balancing advantages, so these Options were excluded from further consideration. I]

15 North Lantau o Scenario A The primary issue in defining a Recommended Strategy for Scenario A was whether or not development should be proposed on Lantau which would require construction of a road link to the Island. Assuming no development at Tolo Harbour, the alternative was to develop port and associated facilities intensively at Kwai Chung and along the New Territories coast to Castle Peak. Because of the scale of projected requirements, the latter approach would have a major impact on existing development, recreation facilities and general amenity in the New Territories. Furthermore, without using Lantau, all development opportunities along the New Territories coast would be used up and there would be no flexibility for modification, if for example some of the sites should prove impractical. Although Lantau is itself an important environmental, landscape and recreation resource, it could be partially developed without major detriment to the most attractive areas in the south and west. The Recommended Strategy or Scenario A therefore incorporates development on Lantau. Castle Peak, north-east Lantau and Kai Tak areas. The Recommended Strategy was designed to combine the advantages of both the remaining Options. o Scenario C Development on Lantau is also included in the Recommended Strategy for Scenario C. The arguments relating to the impact on environment, recreation, existing communities, development and flexibility for Scenario A apply also to Scenario C. There is, however, more choice of por t location outside Lantau as the Kai Tak site would eventually be available to accommodate some facilities. The Recommended Strategy was designed to incorporate the best advantages of all three Prefered Options which did not involve a freight railway connection to the port. o Scenario B After the exclusion of the Option based on a freight railway, the two remaining Preferred Options for Scenario B were similar in overall concept, both including major port development on north-east Lantau. The major difference concerned the extent and timing of development in the 1

16 4. Issues for Strategy Formulation A number of issues identified during the course of the Study had important implications for the form of the Recommended Strategies. 4.1 Early Port Development The Study Brief called for recommendations for the siting of Container Terminals 8 and 9 (CT8 and 9). The first container berth for CT8 is projected to be required by 1994, but road access to Lantau cannot be made available before The early container terminals could not therefore form part of the main development thrust of the Strategies. A Territory-wide search for potential container terminal sites was made and a short list of four analysed in detail. These were at Tsing Yi, Stonecutters Island, Siu Lam and Tai Po. The sites at Tsing Yi and Stonecutters Island were found to be the most suitable, although both posed difficulties of implementation. These difficulties related mainly to land issues at Tsing Yi and the need to reprovision buoys at Stonecutters Island. It was recommended in Stage Report, SR2, "Siting of Container Terminals 8 and 9", that further more detailed studies be commenced for both sites. Further PADS studies, following the submission of SR2, confirmed the important role of the Kwai Chung area in satisfying early port demands. It was concluded that the first multi-purpose terminals should be established as early as possible and that Stonecutters Island was the most appropriate location for them. The main advantages of multi-purpose as opposed to container terminals at this site are that road traffic generation and back-up requirements would be more limited and marine traffic better dispersed. The Recommended Strategies, therefore, show Container Terminal 8 at southeast Tsing Yi and multi-purpose terminals at Stonecutters Island. This conclusion is, however, sensitive to the assumed growth rates prior to 1996 and subsequant consideration by Government has led to a decision to site Container Terminal 8 at Stonecutters Island. This is futher discussed in Section Marine Access to the Port Proposals for major port expansion in the Western Harbour will place considerable pressure on the capacity of the East Lamma Channel to accommodate marine traffic. Maximum use should therefore be made of alternative approaches. o West Lamma Channel In Scenarios A and B, a new West Lamma Channel can be provided, giving separate access to terminals at north-east Lantau. This is precluded in Scenario C by the height restrictions imposed by the replacement airport. o Ma Wan Channel There is considerable potential for port development to the north of Lantau but marine access for large ships is at present restricted by the Ma Wan Channel. A number of measures are recommended to improve the safety and capacity of the Ma Wan Channel, whichever Strategy is selected. These include lowering the island's land mass to improve sight distances and widening the channel (see Figure 4.1). o North Lantau Channel The full potential of the waters north of Lantau can only be released by the construction of a new dredged channel from the west. Because of expected high siltation rates around Chek Lap Kok Bank, such a channel would need to be aligned with the tidal flows and close to the Lantau coast (see Figure 4.1). This, together with limitations on development from airport height restrictions, renders such a channel non-viable in conjunction with a airport at Chek Lap Kok. In Strategies A and C, however, the North Lantau Channel would play an essential role in providing adequate marine access to the port. 4.3 Port Facilities at the Kai Tak Site Tsing Yi I Stonecutters 13 The relocation of Kai Tak Airport would release an extensive area for alternative use in the heart of the urban area of Kowloon. In addition to the airport site, which is approximately 200 hectares, there is potential to develop a further 250 hectares of reclamation in Kowloon Bay and the Kai Tak Nullah. This constitutes the greatest single opportunity for improving the planning and environment of Kowloon under Metroplan. It was therefore considered in PADS that port

17 Figure 4.1 Marine Access to North Lantau \ V Tsing Yi North Lantau Channel preferred alignment Alternative alignments considered Proposed dredging to improve navigation Land lowered to improve sight distance Seabed contour developments should not encroach on this area in such a way as to constrain significantly its overall planning potential. Although the approaches are too shallow to allow container berths, Kai Tak is well suited for the development of multipurpose berths. These would allow fuller use to be made of the Lei Yue Mun approach and would result in short trip lengths for vehicles serving the East Kowloon industrial areas. If there were no port facilities at Kai Tak, cargo for East Kowloon would have to be moved through Kwai Chung or facilities further west. would be required. It was considered desirable to delay the requirement for later additional road links, by incorporating a railway to serve the airport in Scenarios B and C. Economic appraisals indicated that in the case of an airport at Chek Lap Kok, a railway from Hong Kong Island to the airport, offering separate, MTR-style 'public' and non-stop, high speed, airportuser 'dedicated' services, would be economically viable. For a Western Harbour airport, a 'dedicated' service only, from Kowloon via Hong Kong to the airport, would be economically In Strategies B and C, a port arrangement was devised which concentrates development at the south-east extremity of Kowloon Bay, adjacent to the Kwun Tong industrial area. By using a basin development, 2,500 metres of multi-purpose berths can be accommodated, extending from the final section of the existing airport runway to the Eastern Harbour Crossing tunnel. The port facilities would for the most part back on to an existing industrial area. The proposed multi-purpose terminals would generate fewer goods vehicle trips in 2011 than the current air cargo operations at Kai Tak do at present; goods vehicle trips associated with the latter are forecast to double by Rail Access to the Airport In order to satisfy the forcast traffic demands generated by a replacement airport, very substantial new transport links Kai Tak

18 viable. Either railway would be likely to be marginally financially viable. Either railway should be in operation at airport opening and is assumed to carry about 50% of all air passengers. High air passenger patronage levels will depend on the provision of an effective interface between trains and the passenger arrival and check-in areas at the airport, a frequent comfortable service with facilities for carrying baggage, and centrally located, attractive stations in the urban areas. be applied. It must be stressed, moreover, that increased restraint is not Government policy at present. The incompatibility between the current forecasts of traffic growth, the financial and logistical constraints likely to limit the provision of new highway infrastructure, and policy towards restraint, are issues that the transport model tests have high-lighted and which Government will need to consider in the next few years. 4.6 Disposal of Marine Mud The Recommended Strategies are likely to give rise to a disposal requirement of between 280 and 320 million cubic metres of marine mud. This is in addition to about 50 million cubic metres which could require disposal before 1995 as a result of other committed and planned projects. These totals may be compared with the remaining capacity of currently gazetted marine dumping grounds, of around 80 million cubic metres. Marine dumping can have very significant impacts on the hydraulic regime and water quality in Hong Kong waters. Passenger Railway 4.5 Traffic Restraint Current forecasts suggest that, with a continuation of present restraint practices, the number of cars in the Territory can be expected to grow at 5% p.a. and the number of goods vehicles in line with GDP. Using these assumptions, the earlier transport tests showed that a large number of roads, especially those in the urban areas, would be loaded beyond their maximum capacity in both 2006 and For financial and logistical reasons the extensive road construction programme required to handle these traffic levels would probably be unacceptable. In later transport tests, further restraint was therefore assumed. In order to maintain acceptable levels of traffic flow on the network, the numbers of private cars, general goods vehicle trips, and goods vehicle trips to the port, were assumed, in 2006, to be 15%, 25% and 12.5% fewer than projected under the original assumptions given above. No assumptions were made regarding the method by which restraint might Of the various disposal options studied, the most attractive were found to be: o dumping in disused marine borrow pits o containment and dewatering to form usable land o disposal in international waters o disposal in PRC waters Short and long term mud disposal strategies must be developed and it is recommended that trials commence on forming reclamation by containment and dewatering. Long term potential containment areas have been identified and such areas could accept about 5 million cubic metres per annum of dredged volume per 1,000 hectares of contained area for 15 to 20 years. The resulting reclamation would be fit for any use in the long term. Traffic Congestion

19 5. Recommended Strategies Figure 5.1 Recommended Strategy A Deep Bay Ngau Horn Shek The Recommended Strategies evolved from the interactive process of option generation, evaluation and refinement, described in Section 3. All the Strategies were designed to accommodate a constant requirement for port facilities and associated back-up and industrial land uses to the year 2011, as set out in Section 2. The amount of residential development proposed, however, depended on the needs and opportunities created by the arrangement of other uses. There are many common elements between the Strategies. In particular, they all propose the construction of an early road link to Lantau (the North Lantau Link) and major port and industrial development on the Tsing Chau Tsai Peninsula. Other common elements are: early container and multi-purpose terminals at Kwai Chung, river trade cargo handling and industrial areas at Castle Peak, and deep waterfront industry at Tseung Kwan O. Black Point \ Tuen Mun Tap Shek Kok Chek Lap Butterfly Beach The Brothers Sui Lam For all Strategies, the volume of fill required is very large. Sources have been assessed from known potential borrow areas in the Territory, both marine and land-based. There is the potential for further fill from PRC waters or nearby islands and initial results of Govenment's marine sand searches in the eastern waters also look promising. There is clearly a need to manage these potential sources effectively so that priorities can be established and a Government committee has already been set up to undertake this task. Sai Tso Wan \" V O \ 3 1 fchufcg Lantau Island Hei Lin] Chau 5.1 Recommended Strategy A With the airport retained at Kai Tak, the distribution of development in Strategy A is led by the requirements of the port (Figure 5.1). Both the Western Harbour and the waters off Lantau are available without the constraints of a replacement airport. Cheun Chau Airport It is estimated that, with demand management, the capacity of Kai Tak airport to handle passenger traffic will be exhausted by A programme of improvements to airside facilities and to access arrangements has been proposed by the Kai Tak Consultants to enable the airport to operate at its ultimate capacity. The estimated cost of these works, which are already in hand, is HK$2.4 billion. (1988 prices) Port Layout Port developments are concentrated in three areas: o to satisfy short term demand, Container Terminal 8 and the first multi-purpose terminal are located in the Kwai Chung area, at Tsing Yi and Stonecutters Island respectively o following provision of the North Lantau Link, deep water 6km berths are proposed on the Tsing Chau Tsai Peninsula; container terminals are located on the south side, with access via a new West Lamma Channel, and multi-purpose berths on the north; by 2006, the latter will require a new access channel north of Lantau (the North Lantau Channel) o cargo working areas to service the river trade are located in the Tuen Mun West / Castle Peak area, thus minimising vessel traffic passing through the Ma Wan Channel A breakwater between Lamma Island and Cheung Chau provides shelter for the container terminals on Lantau and

20 LEGEND 2006 Development (Unless noted) I Container Terminal I Multipurpose Terminal jj Cargo Working Area Port Backup General Industry Kwai Chung I Deep Waterfront Industry I Residential Buoys and Anchorages Kowloon / Shipping Channels / Improvement T. Breakwater / Typhoon Shelter Kai Tak MFT Relocated Macau Ferry Terminal I Road J Rail Green Island Lei Yue Mun Junk Island ] Further Development at Year 2011 J Road (Year 2011) Telegraph Bay o^ Fu Lkm Hong Kong Island Yung Shue Wan Tathong Channel Lamma Island Stanley South enables the entire Western Harbour to be used as an anchorage. The container terminals are also protected by typhoon barriers from vessels being carried on to them from the east. In total, approximately 4,400 hectares are available for new anchorages, in the Western Harbour and north of Lantau. New typhoon shelters are located off Hei Ling Chau and Peng Chau and south of Siu Lam. Sites for container port back-up are provided adjacent to container terminals at Tsing Yi, West Kowloon and Tsing Chau Tsai south. Urban Development Industry is allocated to sites on north-east Lantau, at Tuen Mun West / Castle Peak and at Tseung Kwan O. In the former area, general industry occupies some 200 (gross) hectares on platforms formed by the removal of fill for port reclamations along the coasts of the Tsing Chau Tsai Peninsula. The area is close to container and multi-purpose terminals and has good access to Tsuen Wan, the New Territories and the PRC, via the North Lantau Link. It would also be largely hidden from most viewpoints behind the remaining land mass of the Tsing Chau Tsai Peninsula.

21 Figure 5.2 Strategy A - Development Phasing LEGEND J Development by 19p6 ] Development lp^6 to 2001 J Development 2001 to 2006 Kowloon J Developmpii 2006 to 2011 Stonecutters Island X Lantau Island Hong 1 ong Island Hei Ling Chau La mm a Island 6km A total of 510 hectares of industrial land is proposed in the Tuen Mun West / Castle Peak area, where port and industrial uses extend continuously from Butterfly Beach in the east, to beyond Black Point in the north. Deep waterfront industries would occupy about 320 hectares. This location for industry, in the far west of the Territory, is favoured from the point of view of minimising the impact of air pollution on residential areas. The greater part of the development would be screened from Tuen Mun by the Castle Peak hills. The site identified for deep waterfront industrial use at Tseung Kwan O, comprising 120 hectares to the south of Junk Island, has excellent marine access via the Tathong Channel. It can be formed at an early date and would be suitable for accommodating potentially hazardous industries. Road access can be provided through the proposed New Town industrial development. Transport Infrastructure The Strategy requires the following new road links to developments proposed by 2006, in addition to transport infrastructure assumed to be in place to satisfy Territory needs: o a two-lane road and bridge from Kwai Chung to the port facilities proposed for Tsing Yi o a dual two-lane extension of Container Port Road to serve the port facilities proposed for Stonecutters Island o the North Lantau Link, comprising a dual three-lane crossing from Tsing Yi via Ma Wan to Lantau Island and connecting to roads serving the port facilities^ and industry proposed for the north of Lantau Island o a dual two-lane extension of Lung Mun Road around the Castle Peak coastline. Land Formation Strategy The total fill requirement for the Strategy to the year 2006 is estimated at 140 million cubic metres of marine-sourced and 198 million cubic metres of land-sourced material. For developments at Kwai Chung and Tuen Mun which are programmed to be operational before 1996, reclamation would be formed using marine-sourced fill. At Tuen Mun West / Castle Peak and on the Tsing Chau Tsai Peninsula, landsourced fill for adjoining reclamation works would be quarried locally and the resulting platforms used for development. Reclamation at Tseung Kwan O would be formed using marinesourced fill.

22 The fill sources proposed for the reclamation works and the quantities of fill to be extracted are shown in Figure 5.3. There would be a marine mud disposal requirement of 283 million cubic metres to the year 2006, of which almost half would be due to new dredged shipping channels. Implementation Programme The implementation programme is shown in Figure 5.4. Access to Lantau Island must be provided to serve the operation of the first container terminal on North Lantau in mid Capital Costs The total capital cost of implementing Strategy A to cater for demand to the year 2006 is estimated at HK$56.5 billion at 1988 prices, undiscounted. This figure includes the cost of a notional 150,000 person residential community to allow direct comparison with costs given for Strategies B and C. Costs of facilities that are part of committed or planned development programmes, such as improvements to increase capacity at Kai Tak, and the Marine Department's Public Cargo Working Area development programme, are excluded. Approach to Kai Tak Airport Figure 5.3 Strategy A Fill Strategy to 2006 Chek Lap Kok Lantau Island Hong %>ng Island Lamma Island 0 2 6km to Tuen Mun West Stanley south

23 Figure 5.4 Recommended Strategy A - Implementation Programme Development L Years f Tuen Mun Area Castle Peak Industry Cargo Working Area Areas 38 & 40 Deep Waterfront Industry Cargo Working Area General Industry mmm i mmm mmm = I CH Mi mam d mmm mmm 3HH mmm 1i Tsing Chau Tsai South Container Terminals General Industry Cargo Working Area Road Access (North Lantau Link) _ mmm mmm mmm c mmm Tsing Chau Tsai North Multi-purpose Berths Tsing Yi North Lantau Channel Container Terminals Road Access (Tsing Yi Bridge) Stonecutters Island Multi-purpose Berths Road Access Tseung Kwan O Deep Waterfront Industry c= cz = ; = = i IZJB = mmm mmmm mmm : Ml i I Ml mmm mmm mmm = 1 mmm m mmmm mmm m mmm i Breakwaters Western Harbour Breakwater c mmm Hi mmm Key Planning, design and environmental studies (including appointment of consultants where appropriate) Land formation and facility construction -Opening of first phase of facility The total cost can be broken down into major project components as follow: HK$ Billion Port Transport Urban/Industrial Utilities Long Term Development to 2011 Further expansion beyond 2006 would be centred on the North Lantau coast. This would be served by an additional direct road link to a point on Tuen Mun Road near Sham Tseng in the New Territories. Further river trade development would be to the north of Black Point.

24 5.2 Recommended Strategy B The need for a road link to Lantau to provide access for the airport opens up the island for major port and urban development. However, the siting of the airport at Chek Lap Kok reduces the water area available for moorings to the north of Lantau, and precludes port development along a major portion of the North Lantau coast. All major port facilities are therefore oriented towards the Western Harbour (Figure 5.5). Airport The 956 hectare airport site has 650 hectares on reclamation, formed from locally-won fill material. Reclamation is in an average depth of water of about 4m and over an average mud thickness of 7m. The airport, with twin runways at a separation of 900 metres, has been assessed by CAD to have a practical maximum annual capacity, in the year 2023, of appoximately 80 million passengers and 4 million tonnes of cargo. The first runway can be operational by January Port Layout Port developments are concentrated in four areas: o to satisfy short term demand, Container Terminal 8 and the first multi-purpose terminal are located in the Kwai Chung area, at Tsing Yi and Stonecutters Island respectively o following provision of the North Lantau Link, major port development takes place incrementally along a peninsula extending south-east into the Western Harbour from the Tsing Chau Tsai Peninsula; container terminals are located on the east of the peninsula, where the water is deepest, and multi-purpose terminals on the west; marine access to these facilities is by way of a new West Lamma Channel o cargo working areas to service the river trade are located at Tuen Mun West/Castle Peak, thus minimising vessel traffic passing through the Ma Wan Channel o after the relocation of the airport from Kai Tak, part of the site and adjacent reclamation next to the Kwun Tong industrial area are proposed for multi-purpose berths, with marine access through Lei Yue Mun. A breakwater between Lamma Island and Cheung Chau provides shelter for the port peninsula off Lantau and enables the entire Western Harbour to be used as an anchorage. The container terminals are also protected by typhoon barriers from vessels being carried on to them from the east. In total, approximately 3,400 hectares are available for new anchorages in the Western Harbour and south of Tuen Mun. New- typhoon shelters are located off Hei Ling Chau and Peng Chau and south of Siu Lam. The shelter at Kai Tak is reprovisioned to the north-west of the new multi-purpose berths. Sites for container port back-up are provided adjacent to container terminals at Tsing Yi, West Kowloon and Tsing Chau Tsai South. Urban Development All the PADS land requirement for general industry is located on Lantau. In north-east Lantau, industrial land occupies 110 hectares on platforms formed by the removal of fill to reclaim the proposed port peninsula. The remaining 260 hectares is on reclamation along seven kilometres of the north coast from Sham Shui Kok to the relocated airport at Chek Lap Kok. Residential development on this coastal strip would be unacceptable, as the coast-line falls within the 25 "noise exposure forecast" (NEF) contour for the replacement airport. The area is accessible to both the airport and the port and, via the North Lantau Link and Route 3, to the New Territories and The new airport and its support community at Tung Chung : a model from earlier studies 21

25 Figure 5.5 Recommended Strategy B Ngau Horn Shek Lantau Island Hei Ling Chau Telegraph Bay Pok Fu Lam Hong Kong Islar Yung Shue Wan Cheung Lamma Island 6km the PRC. It can accommodate the indirect employment forecast to be generated by the airport. Deep waterfront industrial sites are located at Tuen Mun West / Castle Peak and Tseung Kwan O. The proposed 55 hectares at Tuen Mun Area 38B and 265 hectares north of Tap Shek Kok are well screened from the urban population of Tuen Mun. This far western location minimises the impact of air pollution on heavily populated parts of the Territory. At Tseung Kwan O, the 120 hectare site to the south of Junk Island has excellent marine access via the Tathong Channel and can be formed at an early date. It woul be suitable for accommodating potentially hazardous industries and road access could be provided through he New Town industrial development. An airport support community of 150,000 population is proposed adjacent to the replacement airport. The site, at Tung Chung, comprises a flat valley floor, previously in agricultural use but now mainly out of cultivation. Several traditional villages will require resiting. The substantial industrial areas proposed for Lantau provide a justification for including additional population there to improve the balance of population and employment. Additional

26 LEGEND 2006 Development (Unless noted) I Container Terminal I ~1 N J Multipurpose Terminal H Cargo Working Area Port Backup General Industry Deep Waterfront Industry LEGEND Terminal area General cargo Aircraft maintenance / industry Ancillary / Government Phase 1 boundary Airport extension boundary Drainage Buoys and Anchorages / J Shipping Channels / Improvement D2 I T, I Breakwater / Typhoon Shelter I MFT I Relocated Macau Ferry Terminal Road J Rail Lei Yue/ Kwaij 5 Wun/ ^7 7 Junk f Iskand 3 Further Development at Year 2011 I J Road (Year 2011) Layout of Chek Lap Kok Airport Stanley South Tathong Channel o a two-lane road and bridge from Kwai Chung to the port facilities proposed for Tsing Yi o a two-lane extension of Container Port Road to serve the port facilities proposed for Stonecutters Island o the North Lantau Link, comprising a dual three-lane crossing from Tsing Yi to Ma Wan and Lantau Island, connecting to a dual three-lane road along the north shore of Lantau Island to the Chek Lap Kok airport o a dual three-lane road from the North Lantau Link to the port peninsula and later connecting to a dual two-lane tunnel to Route 7 on the Green Island Reclamation residential development is therefore proposed at Tai Ho, about midway along the coast between Tung Chung and Yam O. The sit is constrained by the hills to the south and the 25 NEF noise contour to the north and is limited to accommodating a population of about 110,000. Transport Infrastructure The Strategy requires the following new road links to serve developments proposed by 2006, in addition to transport infrastructure assumed to be in place to satisfy Territory needs: o a dual two-lane extension of Lung Mun Road around the Castle Peak coastline o a dual two-lane road connecting the Hung Horn Bypass to the Kwun Tong Bypass, once the airport is relocated The Strategy also includes a passenger rail line connecting the airport to Hong Kong Island via the North Lantau Link, Tsing Yi and the West Kowloon Reclamation. Services dedicated to airport users and a general public service would be operated over this line.

27 Figure 5.6 Strategy B - Development Phasing LEGEND Development by 1996 Development 19^ to 2001 DevelopmenJ/2001 to 2006 Development 2006 to 2011 Kowloon Lantau Island Hei Ling Chau Hong Kong Island La mm a Island 6 km Land Formation Strategy The total fill requirement for the Strategy to the year 2006 is estimated at 143 million cubic metres of marine-sourced and 306 million cubic metres of land-sourced material. The land formation strategy for port and industrial development is similar to that for Strategy A. For developments at Kwai Chung and Tuen Mun, which are programmed to be operational before 1996, reclamation would be formed using marine-sourced fill. At Tuen Mun West / Castle Peak and on the Tsing Chau Tsai Peninsula, land-sourced fill for adjoining reclamation works would be quarried locally and the resulting platforms used for development. Reclamation at Tseung Kwan O would be formed using marine-sourced fill. The fill requirement for the replacement airport at Chek Lap Kok would be met using material excavated for site formation. The fill sources proposed for the reclamation works required for Strategy B and the quantities of fill to be extracted are shown in Figure 5.7. There would be a marine mud disposal requirement of 284 million cubic metres to the year Implementation Programme The implementation programme is shown in Figure 5.8. As with Strategy A, t he North Lantau Link must be provided to serve the operation of the first container terminal on North Lantau in The link for botji road and rail will also be required to serve the airport which is due to open in January The link from Lantau to Green Island will be needed by Capital Costs The total capital cost of implementing Strategy B to cater for demand to the year 2006 is estimated at HK$106.2 billion at 1988 prices, undiscounted. The cost of residential development at Tai Ho is excluded from this figure to allow direct comparison with the costs given for Strategies A and C. Costs of facilities that are part of committed or planned development programmes are excluded.

28 Figure 5.7 Strategy B - Fill Strategy to 2006 Tsuen Wan Hong Kong Island 6km The total cost can be broken down into major project components as follows: HK$ Billion Port 41.5 Airport 29.0 Transport 22.6 Urban/Industrial 9.9 Utilities 3.2 Long Term Development to 2011 Beyond 2006, the port peninsula in the Western Harbour could be extended to accommodate further container and multi-purpose terminals. Port facilities on the north coast of the Tsing Chau Tsai Peninsula could also be developed at this stage, up to the limit of the capacity of the Ma Wan Channel. Additional industrial development could be accommodated along the North Lantau coast. A further crossing from North Lantau to the New Territories at Sham Tseng would be required. River trade expansion and further deep waterfront industry could be located north of Black Point and a new road connection to the south of Tuen Mun between the Lung Mun Road and Tuen Mun road would be needed. North Lantau Link

29 Figure 5.8 Recommended Strategy B - Implementation Programme ^^ears Development Tuen Mun Area Castle Peak Areas 38 & 40 Deep Waterfront Industry «mmm mmm ZJMHM HMHI jjjjgf r - Z9HHI wmmm mi North Lantau Airnort at C^HpV T an l^nk" Road Access [ ^ pi mmmi BHH mm mm wmwm Pail Route 3 / Cross Harbour Tunnel T inl- Tsing Chau Tsai South i -pm mgjjgjm Road Access Tsing Yi Road Access (Tsing Yi Bridge) Stonecutters Island Multi-purpose Berths Road Access = ' = ZZjMHI HBH mmm mmm mmm mmm mm Kai Tak i i IZ = Tseung Kwan O Deep Waterfront Industry Breakwaters Western Harbour Breakwater c [ mmm Key i» Planning, design and environmental studies (including appointment of consultants where appropriate) mmm Land formation and facility construction L Opening of first phase of facility "

30 5.3 Recommended Strategy C In Strategy C, the replacement airport is located off the west coast of Lamma Island and connected by road and rail along a causeway to Lamma and a tunnel to Hong Kong Island. The airport and its associated height restrictions limit the area available for port development in the Western Harbour but leave available the north coast of Lantau (Figure 5.9). Airport The 1,100 hectare airport site would form one of the largest single reclamations in the world. Reclamation is in an average depth of water of about 15m and overlaying between 10 and 32m of marine mud. The airport, with twin runways at a separation of 2,200 metres, has been assessed by CAD to have a practical maximum annual capacity, in the year 2029, of approximately 94 million passengers and 5 million tonnes of cargo. The first runway can be operational by January Port Layout Port developments are concentrated in four areas: o to satisfy short-term demand, Container Terminal 8 and the first multi-purpose terminal are located in the Kwai Chung area, at Tsing Yi and Stonecutters Island respectively o following provision of the North Lantau Link, major port development takes place on both north and south sides of the Tsing Chau Tsai Peninsula; early container terminals are located on the south side until the desirable maximum capacity of the East Lamma Channel is reached (a new West Lamma Channel is incompatible with the replacement airport); multi-purpose berths and later container terminals are located on the north side of the peninsula; the latter require provision of a new North Lantau Channel for deep water access o cargo working areas to service the river trade are located at Castle Peak, thus minimising vessel traffic passing through the Ma Wan Channel o after the relocation of the airport from Kai Tak, part of the site and adjacent reclamation next to the Kwun Tong industrial area are proposed for multi-purpose berths, with access through Lei Yue Mun The airport and its breakwater extension, between Lamma Island and Cheung Chau, provide shelter for the port peninsula off Lantau and enable the entire Western Harbour to be used as an anchorage. The container terminals are also protected by typhoon barriers from vessels being carried on to them from the east. In total, approximately 3,400 hectares are available for new anchorages in the Western Harbour and north of Lantau. New typhoon shelters are located off Hei Ling Chau and Peng Chau and south of Siu Lam. The shelter at Kai Tak is reprovisioned to the north-west of the new multi-purpose berths. Location of Western Harbour Airport

31 Figure 5.9 Recommended Strategy C Ngau Horn Shek Tsuen Wan Kwai Chung Lantau Island Hei Ling Chau V Pok Fu/ v v Lam/ Telegraph\ / Bay Hong Kong Islan Cheung Chau Lamma Island 6km Sites for container port back-up are provided adjacent to container terminals at Tsing Yi, West Kowloon and Tsing Chau Tsai South. Urban Development The distribution of industry is very similar to that in Strategy A with the exception of 40 hectares of industry and warehousing at Lamma, associated with the airport. The remaining industry is allocated to sites on north-east Lantau, at Tuen Mun West / Castle Peak and at Tseung Kwan O. At north-east Lantau general industry occupies some 200 hectares on platforms formed by the removal of fill for port reclamations along the coasts of the Tsing Chau Tsai Peninsula. The area is close to container and multi-purpose terminals and has good access to Tsuen Wan, the New Territories and the PRC, via the North Lantau Link. It would also be largely hidden from most viewpoints behind the remaining land mass of the Tsing Chau Tsai Peninsula. A total of 470 hectares of industrial land is proposed in the Tuen Mun West / Castle Peak area, where port and industrial uses extend continuously from Butterfly Beach in the east, to beyond Black Point in the north. Deep waterfront industries would occupy 320 hectares. This location, in the far west of the Territory, is favoured for industrial uses from the point of view

32 I LEGEND 2006 Development (Unless noted) I Container Terminal Figure 3.3 Short-listed ARAS Sites Road / rail access Lei Yue Mun Tseung Kwan "t) Junk Isjind I Multipurpose Terminal I I Cargo Working Area I Port Backup Jj General Industry I Deep Waterfront Industry I Residential Buoys and Anchorages / Shipping Channels / Improvement I,, T.1 Breakwater / Typhoon Shelter I MFT I Relocated Macau Ferry Terminal I Road J Rail ] Further Development at Year 2011 I J Road (Year 2011) LEGEND 1 1 Terminal area I General cargo Aircraft maintenance / industry Ancillary / Government Phase! boundary Airport extension boundary 2km Layout of Western Harbour Airport Tathong Channel of Lamma Island, partly on existing land lowered to remove the difficult topography and partly on reclamation. Although some small villages are affected, the main settlement of Yung Shue Wan can be integrated into the edge of the community. The support community is four kilometres from the airport. Stanley South The concentration of port-related and industrial employment on Lantau is insufficient, on the assumption of balanced development, to support a population that could be served by a reasonable range of social and community facilities. Transport Infrastructure of minimising the impact of air pollution on residential areas. The greater part of the development would be screened from Tuen Mun by the Castle Peak hills. The site identified for deep waterfront industrial use at Tseung Kwan O, comprising 120 hectares to the south of Junk Island, has excellent marine access via the Tathong Channel. It can be formed at an early date and would be suitable for accommodating potentially hazardous industries. Road access could be provided through the New Town industrial development. Residential development is limited to an airport support community with a population of 150,000 on the northern tip The Strategy requires the following new road links to serve developments proposed by 2006, in addition to transport infrastructure assumed to be in place to satisfy Territory needs: o a two-lane road and bridge from Kwai Chung to the port facilities proposed for Tsing Yi o a two-lane extension of Container Port Road to serve the port facilities proposed for Stonecutters Island o the North Lantau Link, comprising a dual three-lane crossing from Tsing Yi to Ma Wan and Lantau Islands and connecting to roads serving the port facilities and industry proposed for North Lantau o a dual two-lane extension of Lung Mun Road around the Castle Peak coastline

33 Figure 5.10 Strategy C - Development Phasing Development by Development W$k to 2001 Development 2001 to 2006 Development 2006 to 2011 Kowloon Chek Lap --"'! Kok,"- ',.-, r v' Lantau Island Hei Ling Chau Peng Chau Hong Kong Island Lamma Island 6 km a dual two-lane road connecting the Hung Horn Bypass to the Kwun Tong Bypass once the airport is relocated a dual three-lane road from the Western Harbour airport across the northern end of Lamma Island to an immersed tube tunnel connecting with Route 7 at Telegraph Bay a dual two-lane tunnel across Victoria Harbour from the Green Island Reclamation to West Kowloon Reclamation at Boundary Street (Fourth Harbour Crossing) The Strategy also includes a passenger rail line connecting the airport to the West Kowloon Reclamation, with one intermediate station on Hong Kong Island. The service would be dedicated to travellers to and from the airport. Land Formation Strategy The total fill requirement for the Strategy to the year 2006 is estimated at 161 million cubic metres of marine-sourced and 480 million cubic metres of land-sourced material. The land formation strategy for port and industrial development is similar to that for Strategy A. For developments at Kwai Chung and Tuen Mun, which are programmed to be operational before 1996, reclamation would be formed using marine-sourced fill. At Tuen Mun West / Castle Peak and on the Tsing Chau Tsai Peninsula, land-sourced fill for adjoining reclamation works would be quarried locally and the resulting platforms would be used for development. Reclamation at Tseung Kwan O would be formed using marine-sourced fill. The land formation strategy is dominated by the need to provide fill material for the airport reclamation off Lamma. A total of 310 million cubic metres of fill is required for this purpose. Marine-sourced fill would be used for the majority of seawall construction and the capping and drainage layers, requiring all the marine sand estimated to be available from the seabed south of Stanley. The remaining fill would be obtained from three very large quarries, which would need to be worked intensively, twenty-four hours a day, one on Hei Ling Chau and the other two on the Tsing Chau Tsai Peninsula on Lantau Island. The fill sources proposed for the reclamation works required by Strategy C and the quantities of fill to be extracted are shown in Figure There would be a marine mud disposal requirement of 320 million cubic metres to the year 2006, of which over half would be due to new dredged shipping channels.

34 LEGEND / / - Recommended Strategy C / / development reclamation area I/Sea bed contours in/ metres / below Principal Da/urn \ i \-Toll Toll plaza / / / /' Deposed Jmjhersed / ^t r ~---=^ Implementation Programme The implementation programme is shown in Figure As with Strategies A and B, the North Lantau Link is required by 1996 to serve the first container terminal on Lantau. The airport is programmed to open in January 2000 by which time road and rail links to Hong Kong Island must be in place. Recommended Strategy C development area East Lamma Channel If Longitudinal section Capital Costs The total capital cost of implementing Strategy C to cater for demand to the year 2006 is estimated at HK$112.4 billion at 1988 prices, undiscounted. Costs of facilities that are part of committed or planned development programmes are excluded. The total cost can be broken down into major project components as follows: HK$ Billion Port 39.9 Airport 37.7 Transport 24.7 Urban/Industrial 7.3 Utilities 2.8 Immersed Tube Tunnel from Hong Kong Island to Lamma Island Figure 5.11 Strategy C - Fill Strategy to 2006»$ ;::!:!;' Deep Bay/ ^ :^^:-y< Urmston road to Stonecutters Island &nd Tseung Kwan O Chek Lap Stanley South

35 i Figure 5.12 Recommended Strategy C - Implementation Programme Development Years ^ Tuen Mun Area Castle Peak Deep Waterfront Industry General Industry Cargo Working Area Areas 38 & 40 Deep Waterfront Industry Cargo Working Area General Industry mmmm i 1mmmmmmmmm! c =mm mmm mmm = mmmm «mmm mmm mmm Tsing Chau Tsai South Container Terminals General Industry Cargo Working Area Road Access (North Lantau Link) C == = mmm ==, mmmmm i Tsing Chau Tsai North Container Terminals c -mmmmm mmm North Lantau Channel 1= Tsing Yi Container Terminals Road Access (Tsing Yi Bridge) = =mm mmm m m Stonecutters Multi-purpose Berths Road Access C ~ mmmmmmm m z=mmmm Kai Tak Cargo Working Area Tseung Kwan O Deep Waterfront Industry mmm = *mmmmm zmmmmm n m m = Breakwaters Western Harbour Breakwater C mmm ARAS Airport Airport Road Links ARAS / Lamma / Telegraph Bay Route 7 4th Harbour Crossing Rail Link Lamma Island Urban Development ^ Key Planning, design and environmental studies (including appointment of consultants where appropriate) Land formation and facility construction _ Opening of first phase of facility Long Term Development to 2011 Further port and industrial development beyond 2006 could extend along the north coast of Lantau as far as Chek Lap Kok, with further river trade facilities and deep waterfront industry north of Black Point. This would require further highway construction along the North Lantau coast, a new crossing from Lantau to the New Territories at Sham Tseng and a road around the south side of Tuen Mun. Additional airport traffic would require a by-pass to Route 7 from Telegraph Bay to the Green Island Reclamation

36 6. Strategies Appraisal The purpose of the Strategies Appraisal was to set down the relative advantages and disadvantages of the three Recommended Strategies and the full implications of selecting each. All originally formulated goals and objectives were appraised and a revised framework drawn up. Strategy performance was analysed under five headings: o economic performance o environmental and social impact o programming o flexibility o financial performance A range of studies was undertaken to generate comparative data for the Appraisal. These included: engineering assessments, costing and programming, transport model tests, economic and financial analyses, and interpretation of air and water quality model test results. Particular attention was given to considering the relative flexibility of the Strategies to cope with a number of real changes to key assumptions. 6.1 Economic Appraisal Studies o the labour would be re-employed but less productively and the increased air traffic demand would be rationed without using price mechanisms o the labour would be re-employed less productively and the increased air traffic demand would be rationed using price mechanisms The comparison of economic performance also included an assessment of the differences in land development potential between the Strategies. Strategies B and C release a large area of land at Kai Tak on the relocation of the airport. While some of this land is designated for port development, much of it remains available for other uses. For the purposes of the Study this additional supply of land was valued at the cost of reclaiming an alternative site elsewhere in the Territory. This approach could give a conservative result given the proximity of the site to the centre of Kowloon and the significant environmental and other benefits associated with the removal of the airport, both in the immediate vicinity of Kai Tak and throughout the rest of Hong Kong. The annual costs and benefits of the Strategies were projected to 2026 and a discounted cash flow analysis undertaken. A real discount rate of 4% p.a., the rate usually adopted by Government, was used to calculate present values. A comparison between the Strategies of the components of relative net economic benefit is set out in Table 6.1. Figure 6.1 Projected Total Capital Cost Profile The economic appraisals covered only costs and benefits associated with the Strategies which could be readily expressed in monetary terms. The performances of the programmes required to cater for the level of demand projected for 2006 under each of the Strategies were compared under the following main headings: o capital costs o operating costs o transport user and road accident costs o disbenefits to Hong Kong of not being able to cater for the projected air passenger traffic, either permanently in the case of Strategy A or, temporarily, with Strategies B and C. For this latter disbenefit a range of values was derived using three combinations of assumptions about the productivity of the labour that would have been required to service increased air traffic demand and about how that demand would be rationed: o the labour would not be re-employed and the increased air traffic demand would be rationed without using price mechanisms Year As an indicator of the potential impact of the PADS programme on the economy, the additional demand placed by the Strategies on the capacity of the building and construction industry was assessed in broad terms (Figure 6.2). As the PADS programme is forecast to constitute only a portion of the capital construction activities in the Territory during the period of its implementation, it was not possible to take a definitive view on the overall impact of the Strategies. The demand that the Strategies would place on available public resources, in terms of the likely budget for public sector capital works, was also assessed (Figure 6.3). Total public expenditure was assumed to remain at 16% of the projected Gross Domestic Product of the Territory, with the Government's capital budget accounting for 25% of this total.

37 Table 6.1 Comparison of Net Economic Benefits of Recommended Strategies (HK$ Billion at 1988 Prices) (+) means lower costs or greater benefits Item Strategy B Compared With Strategy A Strategy C Compared With Strategy A Strategy B Compared With Strategy C Net Benefit for Item Cumulative Net Benefit Net Benefit for Item Cumulative Net Benefit Net Benefit for Item Cumulative Net Benefit (A) Component of Strategy Port Development Costs Airport Development Costs Port Operating Costs Airport Operating Costs Costs of New Transport Links Operating Costs of New Transport Links Port Surface Access Costs Airport Access Costs Other Transport User Benefits (1) Sewerage and Water Supply Costs Land Development Costs Land Development Potential , (B) Benefit of increased payments by non-hong Kong users of the airport charges (C) Economic benefit of incorporating Strategy B's rail link through Wp«t Krtwlnnn in ^tri»tpoip«a unh (^ (D) Benefit of catering for full air passenger demand assuming: (a) airport associated labour not mechanism to ration demand or (b) airport associated labour mechanism to ration demand or (c) airport associated labour mechanism to ration demand (E) Consultants' conclusion: (i) maximum likely benefits (2) (ii) minimum likely benefits (3) Notes: (1) The relatively high benefit for this item is mainly a result of the proposed public railway through West Kowloon to Hong Kong Island, which was featured in Strategy B only. In order that the Strategies could be compared on an equitable basis, an adjustment to eliminate this inherent bias was therefore incorporated in the evaluation by including the costs and benefits of a similar railway in Strategies A and C (See Item C) (2) The Consultants considered that the maximum likely benefits would be reflected by (b) in D above (3) The Consultants considered that the minimum likely benefits would be represented by a point half-way between (b) and (c) in D above (the use of the full amount of restraint could result in double counting the benefits included in B)

38 Figure 6.2 Demand on Building & Construction Industry %- 28% 26% 24% 1997 Year LEGEND Strategy A Strategy Strategy Figure 6.3 Public Capital Expenditure on PADS B C 6.2 Environmental and Social Impact Under this heading, consideration was given to the impacts the Strategies were likely to have during both construction and operation phases on: o existing communities and local economies, in terms of general disruption, loss of amenity, noise (in particular, the relative noise impacts of the airport locations - see Figure 6.4), vibration and dust pollution o recreational opportunities, due to effects on beaches and waterfront areas, the availability of water areas for use by pleasure craft, and the present peaceful character of open countryside o landscape and ecology, due to development in scenic or ecologically sensitive areas, excavation of landforms for fill or aviation reasons, and threats to historical and archaeological sites o water quality, resulting from changes to the seabed and coastal configuration which may affect the hydraulic regime, additional pollutant loadings from development, and the need to dispose of marine mud ^ 12%- OJ040%- e-30%- : 20%- 10%- 50%- W>40% C-30%- 20%- 10%- Case 1 : Assuming only major port facilities are provided by private sector Year Case 2 : Assuming airport, airport rail link, major port facilities and transport links are provided by private sector Year o air quality, particularly in existing and proposed areas of development and population concentration o replanning opportunities in the existing urban areas; either positive impacts as in the case of removing Kai Tak airport, or negative, where additional demands are placed on planned reclamations The hydraulic and water quality modelling studies showed that in general terms the Recommended Strategies would have only small impacts on water flows and pollution levels in Hong Kong waters. Changes in current velocities would have no significant impact on ship handling. In Victoria Harbour, potential reductions in oxygenation would be compensated through decreases in pollutant loading as a result of initiatives proposed under the Sewage Strategy. There is however, concern over the potential impacts of variation in oxidised nitrogen levels in southern waters, as no direct empirical data are available and the sensitivity of the receiving waters is uncertain. There is a need to carry out further model testing in the early stages of strategy implementation to assess more precisely any potential local problems, and to ensure that any detrimental effects of the proposed new reclamations are minimised. In the long term the overriding factor is likely to be the quality of water in the Pearl River Estuary. From the analysis of the results of the air quality model tests it is clear that air quality in Hong Kong will deteriorate gradually over the coming years, due to a general increase in emissions. Regardless of the Strategy chosen, the Hong Kong Air Quality Objectives are likely to be exceeded for the major pollutants, nitrous oxides, sulphur dioxide and particulates, in Kowloon, and on Hong Kong and Lantau Islands. The situation can only be improved by the resolute use of emission reduction techniques.

39 6.3 Programming Figure 6.4 Relative Airport Noise Impact All Strategies were designed to provide port facilities, transport infrastructure and urban development in line with forecast demand. Major differences occur, however, with respect to the satisfaction of forecast airport demand. The probability of delays in achieving defined programmes is also important and could be affected by engineering uncertainties, negative community reaction to key elements or the need to resolve complex land issues. 6.4 Flexibility and Robustness Flexibility and robustness are concerned with the extent to which Strategies can be expected to cope with real changes in the assumptions on which they have been based. Flexibility and robustness are particularly important because the Recommended Strategies are designed to satisfy forecasts of demand for various types of facility over a long period and are based on a wide range of bold assumptions. Flexibility to deal with a number of different circumstances was considered. These might be brought about by changes in Hong Kong's economy, world trade cycles, developments in the PRC, shortage of finance or labour, or attitudes to institutional change. The most critical circumstances were considered to be: o Temporary or long term increases in demand for port and airport facilities above the levels forecast. Early fast growth, before vital infrastructure would be in place, is particularly problematic. o Temporary or long term decreases in demand for port, airport and other facilities below the levels forecast. Should there be a drastic reduction in growth, a major concern would be the amount of investment tied up for long periods in infrastructure with excessive capacity. The key to flexibility is to reduce risks by devising developments that can be implemented in small increments in response to short term assessments of demand. Major cost thresholds should be minimised and well spaced out in time. o Difficulties in implementing the early parts of the Strategy on programme, especially resulting from institutional problems in establishing multi-purpose berths at the outset and delays in provision of the North Lantau Link. o Delays or shortfalls in the provision of critical infrastructure, both within PADS and elsewhere in the Territory. 6.5 Financial Appraisal Studies The capital costs, operating costs and revenues for the Strategies, with appropriate breakdowns by major components, were established, and cash flow projections for Government were prepared for the period up to Net present values 6km and internal rates of return were calculated for the assessment of financial viability from Government's viewpoint. The likely revenue to Government and the returns on public sector investment through implementation of* the Strategies were calculated as additional financial performance measures. For the major components of the Strategies, separate assessments of their financial viability were carried out to ascertain their broad suitability for private sector funding, and to provide an indication of the likely premium that might accrue to Government if the right to provide and operate these facilities were put out to tender. Projects with real financial rates of return greater than 4% were deemed to be financially viable and suitable as public sector investments. Projects with real financial rates of return greater than 6% were deemed to be suitable for private sector investment. The analyses are, however, only indicative. The actual rates of return will depend on institutional arrangements, the extent of competition prevailing between the operators of different types of facility, and, in the case of transport links, the rate of growth in demand after The FINS Consultants have included further commentary on these aspects in their Final Report.

40 25 NEF Contour Strategy B 25 NEF Contour Strategy A Note : For a replacement airport it is recommended that no residential or noise sensitive development should be sited within the 25 NEF contour. 25 NEF Contour Strategy C 6.6 Summaries of Strategy Performance The results of the Strategies Appraisal were set out in detail in a series of tables in the Final Report. The main points from the Appraisal are summarised in Tables 6.2, 6.3 and 6.4, each of which compares the relative advantages and disadvantages of two of the three Strategies. These tables highlight the important trade-offs which Government will need to consider in selecting one of the three Strategies. In addition, Government must take account of evaluations of aeronautical performance undertaken by CAD and assessments of financing and institutional matters made by the FINS Consultants.

41 Table 6.2 Summary of Strategies' Performance : Comparison of Strategies A and B Goal In favour of Strategy A In favour of Strategy B Economic Performance o The net economic benefits of Strategy B are likely to be in the range $HK 27 to 56 billion higher than those for Strategy A, depending on the extent of the use of price mechanisms to constrain passenger movements through Kai Tak Airport o Peak demands on projected Government Capital Budget for Strategy A fall within a lower range, 17% to 19%, than for Strategy B, 18% to 38%, depending on the extent of Government involvement. With maximum Government involvement, under Strategy B the demand remains above 30% for four successive years o With Strategy A, failure to plan for forecast increases in air passenger demand beyond 1996 is likely to have a detrimental impact on business confidence in the future of the Hong Kong economy o Strategy A makes lower peak demands on the projected building and construction industry capacity : 12%, against 18% for Strategy B. The period of high demand is also shorter for Strategy A, being over 10% for two successive years, compared with five years for Strategy B Social and Environmental Impact o By relocating Kai Tak airport, Strategy B releases some 350,000 people from unacceptably high airport noise levels o Strategy B causes major change of character of the North Lantau coast, from rural to urban o Strategy B creates very substantial and unparalleled urban planning and restructuring opportunities at the Kai Tak site, in Kowloon Bay and elsewhere in Kowloon Programming Flexibility o In Strategy B, as road and rail links to the airport and road links to the port use the same crossing, airport and port are vulnerable to closure of this link between 1996 and 2004 when a second link is required o Strategy A leaves open a greater range of opportunities for long term port development in terms of water areas, reclamation potential and shipping channel capacity o Strategy A can only satisfy forecast airport passenger demand up to the end of 1996, while Strategy B can meet forecast demands from 1998 to well beyond 2011 (The economic costs of this difference are included under economic performance) o In Strategy B, benefits arising frbm the North Lantau Link are not totally dependent on realisation of the port cargo forecasts, as the Link is shared with the airport. Major cost thresholds for the port to 1996 total only HK$3.3 billion, compared with HK$5.6 billion for Strategy A o Strategy A is vulnerable to higher than assumed siltation rates in the North Lantau Channel. With double assumed siltation rates, additional net present costs for Strategy A would be HK$1.1 billion 38

42 Table 6.3 Summary of Strategies' Performance : Comparison of Strategies A and C Goal In favour of Strategy A In favour of Strategy C Economic Performance o The net economic benefits of Strategy C are likely to be in the range $HK 16 to 45 billion higher than those for Strategy A, depending on the extent of the use of price mechanisms to constrain passenger movements through Kai Tak Airport o Peak demands on projected Government Capital Budget for Strategy A fall within a smaller range, 17% to 19%, than for Strategy C, 16% to 36%, depending on the extent of Government involvement. With maximum Government involvement, under Strategy C the demand remains above 30% for three successive years o With Strategy A, failure to plan for forecast increases in air passenger demand beyond 1996 are likely to have a detrimental impact on business confidence in the future of the Hong Kong economy o Strategy A makes lower peak demands on the projected building industry capacity: 12% against 19% for Strategy C. The period of high demand is also shorter for Strategy A, being over 10% for two successive years compared with seven years for Strategy C Social and Environmental Impact o By relocating Kai Tak airport, Strategy C releases some 350,000 people from unacceptably high airport noise levels o Strategy C, during construction and operation, detracts from the peaceful character of the Western Harbour, particularly the rural north-west of Lamma Island and north-east Lantau o Strategy C creates very substantial and unparalleled urban planning and restructuring opportunities at the Kai Tak site, in Kowloon Bay and elsewhere in Kowloon o In Strategy C, unless suitable alternative fill sources can be made available, it will be necessary to operate very large quarries to produce the greater fill requirements. Strategy C therefore, has greater potential than Strategy A to cause noise, vibration and dust pollution nuisance, although their severity would depend on the quarry locations chosen o While both Strategies require disposal of very large quantities of marine mud, far in excess of the capacity of existing marine dumping grounds, the requirement for Strategy C (320 M cu.m) has a greater potential to give rise to environmental problems than that for Strategy A (280 M cu.m) Programming o Strategy A cannot satisfy any additional airport passenger demand after 1996, while Strategy C can meet forecast demands from 2000 to well beyond 2011 (The economic costs of this difference are included under economic performance) Flexibility o Closure of a major shipping channel would be less disruptive to traffic with Strategy A than with Strategy C. Strategy A is also less vulnerable to higher than assumed siltation rates in the North Lantau Channel. With double assumed siltation rates, additional net present costs for Strategy C would be HK$0.8 billion o Strategy A leaves open a greater range of opportunities for long term port development in terms of water areas, reclamation potential and shipping channel capacity 39

43 Table 6.4 Summary of Strategies' Performance : Comparison of Strategies B and C Goal In favour of Strategy B In favour of Strategy C Economic Performance Social and Environmental Impact Programming Flexibility o The net economic benefits of Strategy B are likely to be in the order of $HK 10 billion higher than those for Strategy C o Although Strategies B and C make similar peak demands on the projected building industry capacity, the period of high demand (with demand at over 10%) is shorter for Strategy B, at five successive years compared with seven for Strategy C o Strategy C, during construction and operation, detracts from the peaceful character and general recreational attraction of the Western Harbour, including Lamma Island o The need to make provision for a Fourth Harbour Crossing in Strategy C, places additional constraints on the planning of the Green Island and West Kowloon Reclamations o In Strategy C, unless alternative fill sources can be made available, it will be necessary to operate very large quarries to produce the greater fill requirements for the airport. Strategy C, therefore, has greater potential than Strategy B to cause noise, vibration and dust nuisance, although their severity would depend on the locations chosen o While both Strategies require disposal of very large quantities of marine mud, far in excess of the capacity of existing marine dumping grounds, the requirement for Strategy C (320 M cu.m) has a greater potential to give rise to environmental problems than that for Strategy B (280 M cu.m) o In Strategy B the replacement airport at Chek Lap Kok can be operational in early 1998, two years before the Western Harbour airport in Strategy C (the economic costs of this difference are included under economic performance) o The airport in Strategy C is subject to greater programming uncertainties due to its greater size, four times greater fill requirements and its more exposed location. Much more is known about the airport and its access links in Strategy B from the earlier extensive site investigations and studies o In Strategy B, benefits arising from the North Lantau Link are not totally dependent on realisation of the port cargo forecasts, as the Link is shared with airport traffic. Major cost thresholds for the port to 1996 total only HK$3.3 billion compared with HK$5.3 billion for Strategy C o Addition of 2006 to 2011 development increment requires less additional major investment and is likely to entail lower transport operating costs o Peak demands on projected Government Capital Budget for Strategy C fall within a lower range, 16% to 36%, than for Strategy B, 18% to 38%, depending on the extent of Government involvement. With maximum Government involvement, the demand remains above 30% for three successive years in Strategy C and four years in Strategy B o. Strategy B causes major change of character of the North Lantau coast, from rural to urban 40

44 Table 6.4 Summary of Strategies' Performance : Comparison of Strategies B and C (Continued) Goal In favour of Strategy B In favour of Strategy C Flexibility (continued) Financial Performance o In Strategy B, alternative marine approaches are available to most port facilities in case of closure of a major shipping channel whereas in Strategy C there is no alternative to the East Lamma Channel as an approach to container terminals o Strategy C is vulnerable to higher than assumed siltation rates in the North Lantau Channel; a doubling of assumed siltation would increase the net present costs by HK$ 1.9 billion o The replacement airport and major transport links in Strategy B have a greater potential to attract private sector involvement than in Strategy C, as they show higher internal rates of return o In Strategy B, as road and rail links to the airport use the same crossing, the airport is more vulnerable than Strategy C to closure of this link between opening in 1998 and 2004, when a second link is required. 41

45 7. Implementation Strategies B and C require the opening of a replacement airport "as early as practicable". There is a similar urgency for all Strategies to provide expanded port facilities to match the Port Cargo Forecasts. If these developments are to proceed in accordance with the outline programmes presented in this report, a number of issues which may influence the proper development of the Strategies must be addressed. 7.1 Institutional Issues It is critically important that the necessary institutional framework be devised to permit the proper and timely implementation of the selected Strategy. It was not within the remit of the PADS Study to consider institutional arrangements, as these were dealt with under the separate Financing and Institutional Study (FINS). Nevertheless, two fundamental assumptions underlying the Strategies need to be emphasised: o Government must ensure that the proper planning and institutional arrangements for establishing multi-purpose terminals are implemented as soon as possible. Any delays in provision of multi-purpose terminals would lead to undesirable increases in the scale of mid-stream operations and eventually to the need for a complete Strategy Review. o The airport construction programmes assume a "corporation" approach, by which an autonomous corporation or authority would direct and control construction of a new airport. Without such an organization, construction at either airport site might take up to two additional years 7.2 Short Term Growth The Strategies have been formulated on the basis of the Port Cargo Forecasts. While modification to accommodate higher levels of throughput in the early years may be needed, the required flexibility exists in all three Strategies. If growth in cargo throughput continues to exceed the Port Cargo forecasts, more than one container terminal will need to to located in the Kwai Chung area. There is however, a limit to the area which can be reclaimed without severely affecting marine traffic or realigning the Northern Fairway. After allocation of land for container terminals, the remaining area available for multi-purpose terminals, and for back-up, will diminish as assumed growth rates increase For high growth, the disadvantages of congestion and loss of anchorage space will need to weighed against the disadvantages of using alternative sites for multi-purpose terminals or cargo working waterfront in the short term. 7.3 Programming Issues There are a number of planning and development issues that need urgent examination if the provision of new port and airport facilities is to match demand. These are discussed below with the programmes that need to be met. The degree to which these issues can be treated singly or together will be determined by the form of implementation framework which is set up by Government. Issues Common to all Options o North Lantau Link and Navigational Improvements to the Ma Wan Channel The North Lantau Link is needed by 1996 whichever of the PADS Recommended Strategies is adopted. An engineering design review for the Link is required urgently so that detailed design may commence in early In , feasibility studies, detailed designs and contract documents were prepared for the then "LantauTixed Crossing" between the Rambler Channel North Bridge and Ngong Shuen Au on North Lantau. These* designs included long-span suspension bridges between Tsing Yi and Ma Wan and North Lantau Link

46 between Ma Wan and Lantau. Considerable effort was expended in designing this link including, in particular, specialist aerodynamic studies and wind-tunnel testing, to assess the behaviour of the bridge deck cross sections under typhoon conditions. The review of the North Lantau Link should seek to retain as much as possible of these earlier designs in order to minimise programme delays. Of particular importance in this review will be the arrangement for the interchange with Route 3, a road which had not been envisaged when the original designs were undertaken. The proposed improvements to the Ma Wan Channel should be studied in conjunction with the Link and, if Strategies A or C are adopted, a feasibility study of the North Lantau Channel. Road access to Lantau will put inevitable pressure on Government to relax the present restrictive policy on vehicles in the existing developed areas of south Lantau. Such a relaxation would not be necessary and could damage irrevocably the recreational nature of south Lantau. Government, however, must carry out further studies to determine the most prudent policy for these areas. Activity North Lantau Link Decision in Principle on PADS Engineering Design Review Decision on Design/ Construction Land Acquisition Design/Tender Construction Ma Wan Navigational Improvements Detailed Feasibility Study o Borrow Area Management 1989 V T 11 i mmm mm = A borrow area management study should be initiated to minimise the total costs of all reclamation works currently planned and to allocate the most appropriate land and marine borrow areas to various projects. The study should also consider the establishment of very large quarries. is not responsible for controlling the disposal of marine mud which is not required for filling purposes. Activity Borrow Area and Marine Mud Management Studies Government Review Detailed Design of Reclamations Reclamation Construction Port Developments ARAS Airport Chek Lap Kok Airport o Port Planning Studies M ^^ m^^m 1992» i» 1993 Port planning studies are needed to refine the PADS proposals for the short term. They should take into account a range of demand, including rapid early growth, the institutional framework established through FINS, and the findings of the Container Terminal 8 and Route 3 Studies. Comprehensive development plans for Kwai Chung, Tsing Yi, North Lantau and other areas required for development need to be drawn up. Activity Port Planning Studies Preliminary Design Detailed Design Construction J~ o Design of Western Harbour Breakwater mmm 1991 *mmmi 1992 * 1993 The breakwater in the Western Harbour is required urgently because there is not enough sheltered space in the existing Harbour to provide for buoys displaced by proposed reclamations and for forecast growth in demand for buoys and anchorages. For all Strategies, the breakwater is programmed for construction starting at the end of 1991 and planning and feasibility studies need to begin as soon as possible. For Strategy C, the breakwater would have to be constructed in conjunction with the airport reclamation.» Government has now established a Fill Management Committee, under the chairmanship of the Director of Civil Engineering Services, to address these issues. o Management of Marine Mud Disposal Activity Planning Studies Preliminary/Detailed Design Construction 1989 n ^ 1 ^ ^^ i-» A study should be commissioned to consider short and long term strategies for disposal of marine mud on a Territorywide basis. A disposal method within Hong Kong' s Territorial waters would be preferred. The newly formed Fill Management Committee (FMC) has now included the extraction of marine mud and its beneficial use as fill within its purview: the FMC, however, o Outline Layout Plans for Deep Waterfront Industry The construction of deep waterfront industry in Area 29 (Tseung Kwan O) is programmed to start in Planning studies for this area should start as soon as possible. Activity Planning Studies Preliminary/Detailed Design Construction mmmmmmm mmmmmmm-*

47 Issues Common to Strategies B and C o Review of CTS2/TDS in the light of PADS recommendations Once a replacement airport location has been selected, the Second Comprehensive Transport Study (CTS2) and the Territorial Development Strategy (TDS) Study will need to be updated to assess the implications of the choice of the airport site and of the new port location for transport and development in the Territory as a whole up to the year In association with the CTS2 update, a wide range of traffic and transport planning and impact studies will be required. much of the highway on Lantau between the Tsing Chau Tsai Peninsula and Chek Lap Kok, has already been designed in detail, in the previous "Trunk Road to Replacement Airport" (TRTA) studies. As much of these earlier designs as possible should be retained. In Strategy C, design studies should include consideration of the Lamma Channel Crossing, the fourth harbour crossing and the future expansion of Route 7. Activity Feasibility Study Preliminary/Detailed Design Construction CLK Construction ARAS ^^H > 1993 r Activity CTS2/TDS Review ^^ ^B o Provision of a Rail Line to a Replacement Airport It would be advantageous for a rail service to be available at the time of opening of the replacement airport: early 1998, in the case of Chek Lap Kok, and 2000, in the case of a Western Harbour airport. Detailed feasibility studies of the rail lines and the nature of the facilities to be provided at the stations, should commence as soon as possible, with special emphasis on making the lines as attractive as possible to airport users. o Airport Community If either of the replacement airport sites is chosen, a planning, engineering and transport study for the airport community will be needed as a matter of urgency to allow integration with the Airport Master Plan. Activity Airport Community Study Airport Master Plan Issues Common to Strategies A and C o North Lantau Channel I^MMM \ Activity Detailed Feasibility Study Preliminary/Detailed Design Construction CLK Construction ARAS MB t Further studies are needed to confirm the cost of capital and maintenance dredging of a North Lantau Channel for Strategies A or C. o Airport Master Plan and Civil Engineering Design Study These studies for a replacement airport would need to be initiated immediately following a decision to adopt Strategy B or C. Previous site investigation and preliminary design for Chek Lap Kok will enable detailed design to start a year earlier than for an airport in the Western Harbour. Activity Feasibility Study Data Collection Review Strategy if Necessary :: 1991 T Activity Master Plan Study Civil Engineering Design Study Detailed Design CLK Detailed Design ARAS MB * 1993 ^ o Highway Links to a Replacement Airport The current programme for the Territory's transport network will need to be modified if Strategies B or C are selected. Of primary concern are Route 3 and Route 7, but other elements will also be affected. Detailed transport and traffic studies will be needed as the first part of the specific design studies for the major new highways. In Strategy B,

48 8 Government's Selected Strategy In his address to the Legislative Council on 11th October 1989, His Excellency, the Governor, announced that a decision had been made on a long term port and airport development Strategy for the Territory. The Strategy to be adopted is that which incorporates a replacement airport at Chek Lap Kok. Figure 8.1 indicates the Selected Strategy which is based substantially on the Recommended Strategy for Scenario B (Replacement Airport at Chek Lap Kok) and now incorporates the decision on the siting of Container Terminals 8 and Siting of Container Terminals 8 and 9 The forecasts used in the PADS Study were given, at the commencement of the Study, by the Working Group on Port Forecasts, chaired by the Government Economist. During the study period actual growth in cargoes has been much higher than forecast. As a result, Government has determined that Container Terminals 8 and 9 must be constructed to permit six berths to come on stream progressively between September 1993 and October As access to North Lantau cannot be provided until early 1996, both Terminals 8 and 9 must be constructed in the Kwai Chung area. In the Governor's address it was announced that Government had decided that Container Terminal 8 would be sited at Stonecutters Island and Container Terminal 9 at east Tsing Yi. This layout therefore becomes part of Government's Strategy for Port and Airport Development. 8.2 Siting of Initial Multi-Purpose Terminals With Stonecutters Island being allocated to container terminal, an alternative site must be found for the first multi-purpose terminal, the first berth of which is required as soon as possible. Following the decision on Container Terminal 8, a further broad examination of contending sites was carried out at a similar strategic level to the work for the remainder of PADS. Having regard for the specific requirements of a multi-purpose terminal, five potential sites were selected for examination: o Tseung Kwan O East; o Tseung Kwan O West; o Siu Lam; o Area 40, Tuen Mun; and of the first 40 hectare multi-purpose terminal with an initial length of quay of about 1000m. It was also concluded that the best strategic location for the second phase would be, in order of preference: o Tseung Kwan O West (as an extension of the first phase); o Area 40, Tuen Mun o West Tsing Yi Of these, only Tseung Kwan O West and Area 40 Tuen Mun appeared likely to be able to accommodate a terminal of the optimum size (40 hectare) for most efficent operation. Government must now commission more detailed studies to determine more precisely the feasibility of these sites for this purpose. 8.3 Implementation of the Strategy The Study has presented a rigorous and detailed analysis of the three Recommended Strategies. Government has now considered this analysis and determined which of these Strategies should be adopted. The Strategy proposes large-scale port, airport and infrastructure projects, designed to cater for the forecast demands of the next years. North Lantau presents the major opportunity for port expansion and the provision of an early road connection is a fundamental requirement. The next stage will be to implement the Strategy in the most efficient and expedient way, by examining in more detail the major components. As the Strategy develops, there will be a need to review the forecasts periodically, in the light of regional and world trends, and determine what modifications or refinements may be needed to the structure of the Strategy. Government's proposed programme for development of Hong Kong's new international airport envisages the operation of the first runway by early The programme for implementation of the necessary infrastructure to meet this date is shown on Figure 8.3, which also shows the timing of the other elements of the Strategy. The logistical and resource challenges required to implement the Strategy are demanding but, by demonstrating a firm commitment to Hong Kong's future, the new developments will play a major role in maintaining prosperity and confidence in the Territory. An opportunity now exists to drive Hong Kong forward into the next century and maintain its prominence as the dominant regional port and an international commercial and business centre. o West Tsing Yi The assessment concluded that the site at Tseung Kwan O West appeared to offer the best strategic choice for development 45

49 Figure 8.1 Government's Selected Strategy Ngau Horn Shek Black Point/ \ \ Tap Shek Kok Kwai Chung Stonecutters Sai Tso Wan Tung Chung Lantau Island Feng ^.^ Chau \ I f \ L T. Jral MFT D3- Hei Ling Chau JfT D2 S^Island l^^si Telegraph Bay Pdfc Fu Lam Ho Yung Shue Wan Cheung Chau Lamma Island 6km Replacement Airport at Chek Lap Kofc

50 LEGEND 2006 Development (Unless noted) Container Terminal Multipurpose Terminal Cargo Working Area Port Backup twloon General Industry Deep Waterfront Industry ::::::::::::::: Residential Lei Yue Mun Tseung Kwan O ^ '' Junk Is kind / T MFT Buoys and Anchorages Shipping Channels / Improvement Breakwater / Typhoon Shelter Relocated Macau Ferry Terminal Kong Island Road Rail Further Development at Year 2011 Road (Year 2011) Tathong Channel Stanley South

51 Figure 8.2 Opportunities for Initial Multi-purpose Terminal Development r '^*&&»' «-"" ^.-^ JL ** * 6km Tseung Kwan O East Tseung Kwan O West i - Tsing Yi Island West I j Chau Figure 8.3 Implementation Programme for Selected Strategy Development Years Tuen Mun Area Castle Peak Deep Waterfront Industry Carso \Vorkins Area Areas 38 & 40 Deep Waterfront Industry Cargo Working Area._ North Lantau Airport at Chek Lap Kok Residential General Industry Road Access North Lantau Link / Trunk Road Route 3 / Cross Harbour Tunnel Rail Link Tsing Chau Tsai South Container Terminals «Multi-purpose Berths General Industry Road Access Green Island Link Tsing Yi / Stonecutters Island Container Terminals Road Access,,_ Kai Tak Multi-ourpose Berths Cargo Working Area Tseung Kwan O (Junk Bay) Deep \Vaterfront Industry Breakwaters Western Harbour Breakwater i i i Multi purpose Terminals cz = 1 MB I Key ' * Planning, design and environmental studies (including appointment of consultants where appropriate) Land formation and facility construction r nr~^ i Opening of first phase of facility

52

53 HK 387, P8;i Port & Airport Development Strate*v executive summary /' Date Due 1-6 JAN 1992 Nu i..,, -''AN

54