5. Consider and Act upon the election of a Vice Chair for the AIR technical Committee. B. Comparison between San Antonio and Austin Ozone Readings

Transcription

1 Agenda Alamo Area Council of Governments Air Improvement Resources Technical Committee Monday, July 13, :30 p.m. Al J. Notzon III Board Room 8700 Tesoro Drive, Suite 100 San Antonio, TX Meeting Called to Order 2. Roll Call 3. Citizens to be Heard 4. Consider and Act upon Approval of the May 11 th, 2015 Minutes 5. Consider and Act upon the election of a Vice Chair for the AIR technical Committee 6. San Miguel Power Plant 7. Status Update on ENVIRON s Control Strategy List 8. Ozone Report A Ozone Season Update B. Comparison between San Antonio and Austin Ozone Readings C. Comparison between local Air Quality Monitors 9. Consider and Act upon the Ozone Monitoring Subcommittee 10. Photochemical Modeling Status Update A. Anthropogenic Precursor Culpability Assessment (APCA) results for each regulatory monitor in the San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA 11. Next Meeting, September 14 th, Adjournment This meeting is accessible to people with disabilities. The accessible entrance is located at the front entrance of 8700 Tesoro Drive. Accessible parking spaces are also available. Please contact AACOG for auxiliary aids and services for the hearing impaired, including interpreters for the deaf, at (210) at least 48 hours prior to the meeting or by calling Texas Relay at for assistance.

2 4. Consider and act upon approval of the May 11, 2015 minutes. Minutes of the Air Improvement Resources Technical Committee Meeting Alamo Area Council of Governments Monday, May 11, :30 p.m. Al J. Notzon III Board Room 8700 Tesoro Drive, Suite 100 San Antonio, Texas Present AIR Technical Committee Members Present AIR Advisory Members Any Quittner, Chair, City of Sequin Angela Rodriguez, CPS Energy Leroy Alloway, Alamo Area MPO Kyle Cunningham, SA Metro Health Liza Meyer, City of San Antonio LeAnn Hosek, Wilson County Andy Winter, Bexar County Steven Smeltzer, AACOG Al Rocha, San Antonio Water System Forrest Mims, Guadalupe County Alison Buck, VIA Metropolitan Transit Darcie Schipull, TxDOT Russell Seal, Sierra Club Peter Bella, ImagineSA Guests Samuel Klein, JBSA Environmental Lee Covez, CEMEX Dub Smothers Terry Burns, Sierra Club Sergio Chapa, San Antonio Business Journal Nick Page, Alamo Area MPO Brandon Howard Randy Waclawczyk Ex-officio Members Eddy Lin, Brian Foster, TCEQ Members not present but excused Tom Hornseth, Comal County AACOG Staff Tim Treviño Brenda Williams Lyle Hufstetler Parviz Nazem Annette Prosterman Citizens to be Heard: 1. Meeting called to order Any Quittner, Chair of the Technical Committee, called the meeting to order at 1:30 PM. 2. Roll call A quorum was achieved. 3. Citizens to be heard There were no citizens to be heard. 4. Approval of Minutes Mr. Forrest Mims made a motion to approve the minutes of the March 9 th, 2015 AIR Technical Committee meeting. The motion was seconded by Mr. Andy Winter. The minutes were approved.

3 4. Consider and act upon approval of the May 11, 2015 minutes. 5. Ozone Report Mr. Smeltzer gave a review of current ozone design values at regulatory monitors in San Antonio region and emphasized that the CAMS58 value, early in the ozone season, is above newly proposed 65 ppb or 70 ppb standard. Table 1: Status of Compliance with 8-Hour Ozone Standard, San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA, 2015 Monitor Site 4th Highest Reading, ppb The 4th highest value Current* 3 in 2015 must be below Year * 2015* this value to meet the Average 75 ppb standard Camp Bullis C San Antonio NW C Calaveras Lake C * 2015 as of 5/04/2015 * 2014 as of 10/31/2014 He discussed the 3-year average for 2014 and mentioned that the design value for that year was even much higher than the current value. Table 2: Status of Compliance with 8-Hour Ozone Standard, San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA, 2014 Monitor Site 4th Highest Reading, ppb Current* 3 Year Average Camp Bullis C San Antonio NW C Calaveras Lake C He then made a comparison between San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA s design values and the other MSAs in Texas, and emphasized that Houston and San Antonio now have similar design values. Table 3: Status of Compliance with 8-Hour Ozone Standard, Texas Urban Areas 2014 Region 4 th Highest Value, ppb 2014 Design Value Dallas-Fort Worth San Antonio - New Braunfels Houston-Galveston-Brazoria El Paso Temple Longview-Tyler-Marshall Beaumont-Port Arthur Waco Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Corpus Christi Victoria Lower Rio Grande Valley

4 4. Consider and act upon approval of the May 11, 2015 minutes. Mr. Forest Mims expressed his concern as to why the CAMS58 consistently records values higher than recorded values at CAMS23, while these two monitors are located so close to each other. The committee members decided to formally ask TCEQ about status of recent calibration of these monitors. Mr. Russell Seal inquired as to how and when Houston area had attained air quality status similar to that of San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA, while that area was known as having the second worst air quality in the nation. Mr. Smeltzer answered it was not clear to him considering the greater industrial base that Houston has as compared to San Antonio region. 6. Consider and Act upon the Presentation for ENVIRON s Control Strategy Development Ms. Liza Meyer, representing the City of San Antonio gave a slide presentation in regards to the control strategies that the City in cooperation with AACOG and the ERG, consultant firm, is developing. This initiative had started in October 2013 based on suggestion of Councilman Lopez who had asked the City to attain a proactive role in further expanding the existing City s ozone control measures within City s jurisdiction. For this, an internal working group was created and TCEQ was contacted for guidance on developing control strategies. ENVIRON was selected as the third party consultant to look at the EPA s list of control strategies and the City s emission inventory and decide what the City should do. ENVIRON assessment was submitted to the City in March, in which emission reduction from off-road equipment was recommended, either by equipment replacement or by installing NO X control instruments on the existing equipment. In addition, ENVIRON report had pointed out emission reductions from on-road vehicles by promoting electric vehicles. The City will study replacement of light duty vehicles with electric ones despite problems with electric wiring of older buildings that might not support recharging stations. The City will also look at passing an idling ordinance within its jurisdiction for all vehicles, as well as installment of idling reduction equipment at truck stops based on ENVIRON s recommendation, and look into helping with upgrade of switch locomotives that operate within the City s jurisdiction. Of other controls specified by ENVIRON were electrification of airport equipment, requiring use of low VOC products and best available technology in City s contracts with service vendors, employee VMT reduction, construction of bike paths and bike facilities, building energy efficiency. Mr. Russell Seal inquired as to if CPS Energy would be willing to cooperate with electric car manufactures to provide charging facilities and other incentives as a component of the City s STEP program to encourage use of electric cars and Mr. Forest Sims mentioned the school bus idling which can be controlled easier than other vehicles within the city limit. AACOG is assigned to conduct a photochemical modeling of these ozone reduction strategies before they are included in the City s sustainability plan and the Ozone Advance Program. 7. Consider and Act upon Photochemical Modeling Status Update Mr. Smeltzer, discussed the results of his latest photochemical modeling runs for 2012 and 2018 for San Antonio MSA based on the 2006 high ozone episode with 7 ramp-up days (May 24 th thru May 30 th ), 31 primary episode days (May 31th thru June 30th), and 2 ramp-down days (July 1 st and 2nd). various scenarios, whereby emissions of NO X or VOC from specific sources, such as point source or on-road source, are reduced to see the impacts of these reductions on the future air quality. These model runs are funded by the local MPO and the results will be helpful when and if the region is designated non-attainment by the EPA. According to this emission modeling, targeting non-road and point source NO X emissions for reduction will result in achieving the highest impact on lowering the design value for the San Antonio- New

5 4. Consider and act upon approval of the May 11, 2015 minutes. Braunfels MSA. Overall reduction of VOC emissions will have insignificant impacts on the future MSA s design value. Mr. Smeltzer showed a chart that explained emission inventory used in his photochemical modeling and said that in the past targeting on-road emissions for reduction would produce the highest benefits, but now due to implementation more stringent emission standards on vehicles by the federal government on-road emissions have reduced significantly. NOX Emissions Trend by Source, San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA He explained that the emissions associated with oil and gas exploration only represented those types of emissions in Wilson and Atascosa counties, and the point source emission did include the emissions associated with Deely s power plant operation in 2018 but not for 2023, since this power plant will be shut down at the end of He explained that the input data for emissions are acceptable by the TCEQ and the on-road emissions did not include emissions for electric vehicles because the MOVES2014 considers them zero emissions. APCA Photochemical Model Run Mr. Smeltzer described the results of photochemical model runs for a new approach named APCA, which stands for Anthropogenic Precursor Culpability Assessment. This approach determines the contribution of various geographic areas by known emission sources for high ozone episode days in a particular MSA such as San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA. The results showed the first 14 days of the June 2006 modeling episode and did not represent the full June 2006 modeling episode. Funding for APCA runs are provided by the Alamo Area MPO.

6 4. Consider and act upon approval of the May 11, 2015 minutes. Contribution of Various MSAs during May 24 th -June 3 rd at CAMS58, June 2018 Projection Case Mr. Smeltzer said these results indicate emission contributions by region and the next step in modeling will be grouping the results not only by region but also by emission source category. Since the modeling showed very low contribution by San Antonio region, Mr. Forest Mims mentioned that the contribution of offshore and other countries can be argued and said to the EPA when and if this region is designated nonattainment. San Antonio New Braunfels Hourly VOC and NO X Contribution to 1-hour Ozone at CAMS58

7 4. Consider and act upon approval of the May 11, 2015 minutes. Mr. Forest Mims asked if the sudden reduction in ozone in the afternoon hours due to sun affects or excavenging during the rush hours and Mr. Smeltzer answered: that is the issue I am working on right now, but I could not prepare any graph for this meeting to show you. Mr. Bella asked if the graph would look the same as this one if emission from all areas were included instead of the local emissions and Mr. Smeltzer said for the exception of June the 3 rd, which shows two picks, all days show a sudden drop in ozone level in the afternoon hours. Mr. Quittner mentioned that the results clearly show emission transport play significant role in San Antonio s ozone days, and Mr. Smeltzer agreed but wanted to evaluate longer distance transport sources as compared to the transport from shorter distances. His last slide showed his scheduled modeling runs as follows: Updated 2012 run (AACOG received projected emission inventories from TCEQ) Updated 2018 run Hourly on-road source runs (1 ton reduction of NO X base case, 9 am, 11 am, noon, 1 pm) Anthropogenic Precursor Culpability Assessment (APCA), 2018 (using existing TCEQ data and local Eagle Ford EI) Updated 2012 Eagle Ford run with local data Updated 2006 run with the latest emission inventory and meteorological files from TCEQ Updated 2018 low scenario Eagle Ford run with local data Runs on individual Point Sources (3 run+) Control Strategies Runs (5 runs?) Anthropogenic Precursor Culpability Assessment (APCA) run with individual San Antonio New Braunfels MSA Counties as regions, 2018 Start running the June 2012 photochemical modeling episode Create projection cases for 2020 and/or 2023 The bold faced bullets were in the process of running at the time of this meeting and the rest are scheduled runs. Mr. Quittner said, however this agenda item did not need any action on the part of committee members, to which Mr. Smeltzer agreed but mentioned he was open to any idea and recommendations for future runs. Mr. Russell Seal argued that it appears, in order to start air quality planning; the area must set the goal of reducing the emissions by 50% as compared to their current levels. And Mr. Mims asked the Chair to include in the future meeting agenda as to what the Clean Air Act does specify in regards to the international contribution, which he believes the Act says clearly that San Antonio is not responsible for it and Mr. Quittner said: yes we could do that.

8 4. Consider and act upon approval of the May 11, 2015 minutes. 8. Potential Cost of Non-Attainment Mr. Smeltzer explained that non-attainment areas will face challenges in regards to economic costs, loss of industry, potential loss of highway funding, and offsets for newer emissions must be found. Available studies have widely varying conclusions regarding ozone nonattainment costs. AACOG in this regards asked TCEQ to help analyze the potential costs of nonattainment designation for San Antonio region. TCEQ has submitted a list of potential VOC and NO X controls, as well as estimated cost for these controls if/when they are implemented. The requirements most likely to influence the potential cost of nonattainment in the San Antonio area are those mandatory controls set aside for Marginal or Moderate categories of nonattainment areas. Under Marginal nonattainment category, major point sources in the area must begin to comply with emissions inventory reporting requirements and offset proposed new emissions via a nonattainment NSR permit and local authorities must comply with federal general and transportation conformity requirements. It is challenging to estimate the cost of these requirements; however, the procedural costs, delays, and uncertainty introduced by these permitting and conformity requirements are cited as reasons why companies may prefer not to locate or expand in nonattainment areas. For a Moderate nonattainment designation, citizens would be required to obtain emissions inspections for most vehicles and State to submit a SIP that incorporates all reasonably available control measures (RACM) necessary to achieve or advance attainment, including reasonably available control technology (RACT) requirements. With a Moderate and higher ozone nonattainment designation, the FCAA also requires states to demonstrate reasonable further progress (RFP) toward attainment and at least a 15% reduction in VOC from baseline emissions within six years. Mr. Quittner said it appears that if a true per ton reduction cost is required lots of new data must be collected for various emission sources. Mr. Smeltzer said he is also concerned how to account for offset for newer emissions when there are no places to consider for emission reduction; however Capital Cement, being so close to the CAMS 58 and CAMS23, makes a good candidate for application of SCR emission control technology. Before the end of the meeting Mr. Nick Page, who used to work for Alamo Area MPO, announced his resignation as the Vice Chair of AirTech committee. He will be working for TxDOT, Austin. Adjournment: There being no further business to discuss, the meeting was adjourned at 3:13 p.m. and the next meeting was scheduled for July 13, 2015.

9 Agenda Item 6. Ozone Standard A. Ozone Report Ozone Report Air Improvement Resources Technical Committee July 13, 2015 Description of ozone standard promulgated in 2008: The annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour concentration, averaged over 3 years, measured at each monitor within an area must not exceed ppm. 1 Table 1 describes current status of San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA in this regards. This standard currently is being reevaluated and the EPA is proposing the 8-hour standard to be set within a range of 65 to 70 ppb. 2 Table 1: Status of Compliance with 8-Hour Ozone Standard, San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA, Monitor Site 4th Highest Reading, ppb * 2015* Current* 3 Year Average The 4th highest value in 2015 must be below this value to meet the 75 ppb standard Camp Bullis C San Antonio NW C Calaveras Lake C * 2015 as of 7/06/2015 * 2014 as of 10/31/2014 If the three year average is to be in compliance with the 2008 standard, the 4 th highest eight-hour average daily reading for each particular monitor must be less than shown value. During 2014 as the Table 2 indicates, CAMS58 at Camp Bullis recorded an 8-hour average ozone level of 72 ppb. If this number is averaged with the fourth-highest values recorded at the monitor for 2012 and 2013 when these readings are confirmed by TCEQ, then the San Antonio region will have exceeded the current 8-hour average ozone standard. Table 2: Status of Compliance with 8-Hour Ozone Standard, San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA, Monitor Site 4th Highest Reading, ppb Current 3 Year Average Camp Bullis C San Antonio NW C Calaveras Lake C Available online: 2 Available online: 3 Available online: 4 Ibid Page 1 of 3

10 Agenda Item 6. Ozone Standard A. Ozone Report Table 3: Status of Compliance with 8-Hour Ozone Standard, Texas Urban Areas Region 4 th Highest Value, ppb 2014 Design Value Dallas-Fort Worth San Antonio - New Braunfels Houston-Galveston-Brazoria El Paso Temple Longview-Tyler-Marshall Beaumont-Port Arthur Waco Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Corpus Christi Victoria Lower Rio Grande Valley Figure 1: Number of 8-Hour Ozone Exceedances of 65 ppb at EPA Regulatory CAMS in the San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA, Ibid Page 2 of 3

11 Agenda Item 6. Ozone Standard A. Ozone Report Figure 2: Number of Days with 8-hr Ozone Averages > 65 ppb by Semi-monthly Periods for San Antonio, EPA s Proposed Ozone Standard Timeline Nov. 25, 2014: EPA released a proposal to update the NAAQS for ground-level ozone Court-ordered requirement EPA proposes the 8-hour standards to be set within a range of 65 to 70 ppb EPA is seeking comment on levels as low as 60 ppb Dec. 17, 2014: Proposed rule was published in the Federal Register March 17, 2015: Comments on the Proposed Rule were due to the EPA, and the AIR Executive Committee members submitted their comments Oct. 1, 2015: Oct. 1, 2017: Court-ordered deadline for EPA to issue the final ozone standard EPA determination of attainment or non-attainment for affected areas (maybe based on 2014, 2015, and year average) SIP elements for non-attainment areas are due Oct : Dec. 31, 2020: Attainment deadline for Marginal areas Dec. 31, 2023: Attainment deadline for Moderate areas Page 3 of 3

12 7/6/2015 Status of Compliance with Hour Ozone Standard, San Antonio New Braunfels MSA, 2015 Ozone Report Air Improvement Resources Executive Committee Alamo Area Council of Governments July 13 th, 2015 Regulatory Monitor Site 4th Highest Reading, ppb Current* 3 Year * Average Camp Bullis C San Antonio NW C Calaveras Lake C San Antonio NW C23 Camp Bullis C58 77 ppb on May 2 nd 79 ppb on May 1 st 74 ppb on May 1 st 75 ppb on May 2 nd 67 ppb on April 30 th 72 ppb on June 1 st 66 ppb on June 1 st 67 ppb on April 30 th * 2015 as of 7/06/2015 San Antonio and Austin Design Values, San Antonio and Austin MSA Population, Source: U.S. Census Bureau San Antonio and Austin MSA Emissions Trend, San Antonio and Austin MSA Point Sources Source: Emissions Inventory Comparison and Trend Analysis for the Austin-Round Rock MSA: 1999, 2002, 2005, 2007, &

13 7/6/2015 Why is Austin s Ozone Lower Than San Antonio? San Antonio is a HUB more pass through traffic San Antonio New Braunfels MSA on road emissions: 84.0 tpd Austin Round Rock MSA on road emissions: 51.7 tpd¹ SH 130 Toll Road: 91 miles from Georgetown to just east of Seguin Intended to alleviate traffic on I 35 between San Antonio and Austin Segments 1 4 (Mustang Ridge to Georgetown) o Peak average daily dil traffic count almost l t53,000 on SH 130 near Pflugerville² o The same area along I 35 sees over 180,000 vehicles per day Segments 5 and 6 (South of the 45 Loop in Austin) o 2015 Q1 Transactions: 1,474,908 16,390 per day³ o 2014 Q1 Transactions: 1,238,654 13,765 per day 4 Comparison between Austin and San Antonio Ozone Austin Control Measures TCEQ adopted state inspection and maintenance program (with HGB, DFW, ELP) o Low Income Repair and Replacement Program (LIRAP) that provides financial assistance to low income residents to repair/replace older vehicles that fail emissions inspection Alternative commuting infrastructure (e.g., bike racks and showers) Promote Smart Growth (mixed use, transit oriented development, infill) Clean landscaping/construction contracting Extensive list of Transportation Emission Reduction Measures (TERMs) including bicycle and pedestrian mobility (advanced bicycle detection with mobile app) Multiple regional organizations with anti idling policies Flex schedules/telecommuting for city, state, and regional organizations Not just promoting, but incentivizing alternative commuting ¹ Source: MOVES2010a for year 2011 via TexAER ² Texas Department of Transportation. Austin, TX Austin District Traffic Map. Available online: Accessed 07/01/15. 3 SH 130 Concession Company Q1 Transactions Summary. Available online: content/uploads/2015/05/q pdf. Accessed 07/01/15. 4 Ibid. Capital Area Council of Governments, Austin, TX. Austin Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area Ozone Advance Program Action Plan. Available online: Round_Rock_MSA_OAP_Action_Plan.pdf. Accessed 06/25/15. Ozone Standard Timeline, EPA Nov. 25, 2014: EPA released a proposal to update the NAAQS for ground level ozone (Court ordered requirement) EPA proposes the 8 hour standards to be set within a range of 65 to 70 ppb Dec. 17, 2014: Proposed rule was published in the Federal Register March 17, 2015: Comments on the Proposed Rule were due to the EPA AIR Executive Committee submitted comments Oct. 1, 2015: Court ordered deadline for EPA to issue the final ozone standard Oct. 1, 2016: Implementation Guidance for the ozone standard could be released by the EPA Oct. 1, 2017: EPA determination of attainment or non attainment for affected areas (maybe based on 2014, 2015, and year average) Oct : SIP elements for non attainment areas are due Dec. 31, 2020: Attainment deadline for Marginal areas (Impact of the December 2014 court ruling against EPA by the Natural Resource Defense Council?) Dec. 31, 2023: Attainment deadline for Moderate areas Number of Days with 8 hr Ozone Averages > 65 ppb by Semi monthly Periods for San Antonio, Status of Compliance with 8 Hour Ozone Standard, Texas Urban Areas, Region 2014 Design Value Dallas Fort Worth 81 San Antonio New Braunfels 80 Houston Galveston Brazoria 80 El Paso 72 Temple 72 Longview Tyler Marshall 71 Beaumont Port Arthur 70 Waco 69 Austin Round Rock San Marcos 69 Corpus Christi 66 Victoria 63 Lower Rio Grande Valley 58 2

14 7/6/2015 Ozone Design Values for Each Monitor within the San Antonio New Braunfels MSA, 2014 Monitoring Sites in the San Antonio Region Based on Source: TCEQ, May Select a Monitoring Site in the San Antonio Region. Available online: Accessed 5/15/15. 3

15 7/6/2015 Monitoring Report, CAMS58 Air Improvement Resources Technical Committee Alamo Area Council of Governments July 13 th, 2015 CAMS 58 Monitor: Camp Bullis Owned by TCEQ (Air Quality Division) Contracted to U of Texas Subcontracted to private consultant in Humble, TX (NE of Houston) Address: F Range (1000 Yd marker off Wilderness Trail) Near Wilderness Rd. Latitude: N Longitude: W Elevation: 311 m (1020 ft) Since August 10, 1998 Source: CAMS 23 and CAMS 58 Comparison CAMS 23 and CAMS 58 are 8.73 miles from each other. CAMS 58 is 43 m (141 ft) higher in elevation than CAMS 23. More point sources are present in the vicinity of CAMS 23. CAMS 23 is less than 1 mile from major thoroughfare (Bandera Rd/SH 16 stop & go traffic, idling, on road emissions, etc.) Fewer roads immediately near CAMS 58 (I 10 and 1604 over 2 miles away) CAMS 58 operations have been subcontracted to UT to investigate why it records elevated ozone. The PGA states that UT will collect and analyze ozone, NOx, and meteorological data (solar radiation, temperature, wind direction and speed) for a period of two years. NOx data collected will be analyzed to identify pollution sources that may adversely affect San Antonio s ozone Design Value. Work must be completed by August 30, Correlation between C58 and C23 Year % days when C58 > C23 Average Difference (C58 C23, >65 ppb) Standard Deviation (C58 C23, >65 ppb) R² All Days R² > 65 ppb % % % % % % % % % % % Correlation between C58 and C502 Correlation between C58 and C503 Year % Days C58 > C502 R² All Days R² > 65 ppb # of Cases > 65 ppb % % % % % % % % % % % Year % Days C58 > C503 R² All Days R² > 65 ppb # of Cases > 65 ppb % % % % % % % % % % * % * denotes an inverse relationship 1

16 7/6/2015 Average Hourly Ozone at C23 and C58 Days With 8 Hr Ozone > 65 ppb at Either Monitor, 2014 Average 8 Hr Ozone at CAMS 23, 58, 502, and 503 Days With 8 Hr Ozone > 65 ppb, 2014 Peak Average 8 Hr Ozone (ppb) Date CAMS 23 CAMS 58 CAMS 502 CAMS 503 May May May July Aug Sept Sept Sept Oct Oct Oct Top Eight 8 Hr Ozone for CAMS 23 and Hour 100 meter HYSPLIT Back Trajectories, 2014 Days where CAMS 58 > CAMS 23 Days where CAMS 23 > CAMS Top Eight 8 Hr Ozone for CAMS 23 and Hour 100 Meter HYSPLIT Back Trajectories, 2014 Days where CAMS 58 > CAMS 23 Four cases were in May; four were in Sept. and Oct. Longer range transport present in May Stagnated back trajectories in Sept. and Oct. Only one case of northeasterly transport Days where CAMS 23 > CAMS 58 Six cases in July and Aug; one in Sept. and one in Oct. Six back trajectories out of the northeast Longest trajectory endpoint distance 285 miles Number of Ozone Days > 65 ppb Calibration Checks 3 point check: Each gaseous analyzer is checked automatically every day with the calibration system. The calibration system consists of a clean, dry air, or zero air supply, a dilution calibrator, and sometimes a concentrated, pressurized, gas cylinder. The calibration system can generate zero concentrations of gas and also different span concentrations of gas to check each analyzer. 5 point check: Consists of a zero and 4 upscale points, the highest being a concentration above the NAAQS (for SLAMS criteria pollutants) and higher than any routine values one might expect at the site. These are done remotely every two weeks at CAMS 58. Calibrations are performed when instruments are changed or fail a span check and last from 3 to 6 hours Site visits:. Non scheduled calibrations may be initiated at any time usually during the course of instrument repair/replacement or troubleshooting. Ozone concentration standards must be generated onsite due to the instability of the gas (Transfer Standards For Calibration of Air Monitoring Analyzers for Ozone) 2

17 7/6/2015 Calibration Checks at CAMS 58 The five points used in the calibration of CAMS 58 are zero, 90 ppb, 200 ppb, 300 ppb, and 400 ppb. 5 point Calibration Checks at CAMS 58 Calibration Check for April 2, 2015 Calibration Check for April 10, 2015 EPA guidance on QA for air monitors states: EPA suggests monitoring organization calibrate using points that are more applicable to the concentrations found in their networks while still be protective of concentrations exceeding the NAAQS. (QA Handbook for Air Pollution Measurement Systems, EPA) Calibration Check for April 30, 2015 Summary Since 2005, seven years had at least a 75% occurrence of days where CAMS 58 recorded a greater 8 hour average ozone than CAMS was unusual in that CAMS 23 recorded greater 8 hour ozone than CAMS 58 on most days was also meteorologically unusual (extreme drought, large fires). Most years have moderate to good correlation between 8 hour ozone on high ozone days at CAMS 23 and CAMS 58, except for Northeasterly transport characterized days where CAMS 23 recorded higher ozone than CAMS 58 on high ozone days in CAMS 58 reported higher ozone than CAMS 23 on early season high ozone days and days in Although CAMS 58 and CAMS 23 are less than 10 miles apart, their location relative to each other, as well as nearby point sources, may play a role in CAMS 58 recording higher ozone on most days. Average Hourly Ozone at CAMS 23 and CAMS 58 Days With 8 Hr Ozone > 65 ppb at Either Monitor, Average Hourly Ozone at CAMS 23 and CAMS 58 All Ozone Season Days, CAMS 58 records higher ozone once the photochemical process begins CAMS 58 records higher ozone once the photochemical process begins CAMS 23 records higher ozone during the evening through pre dawn CAMS 23 records higher ozone during the evening through pre dawn 3

18 7/6/2015 CAMS 23 Monitor: San Antonio Northwest Owned by TCEQ (MONOPS Division different from CAMS 58) Address: 6655 Bluebird Lane 48 Hour Back Trajectories on Days > 75 ppb, CAMS 58 > CAMS 23: 17 cases CAMS 23 > CAMS 58: 14 cases Latitude: N Longitude: W Elevation: 268 m (879 ft) Since July 1, 1981 Source: bin/compliance/monops/site_photo.pl Source: 48 Hour Back Trajectories on Days > 75 ppb, Source for Point Sources: 4

19 7/6/2015 Completed Photochemical Modeling Runs Hourly On Road Emissions Photochemical Modeling Report Air Improvement Technical Committee Alamo Area Council of Governments APCA Run Impact of other Regions on regulator monitors Impact of local sources Hourly Impact of VOC and NO X emissions July 13 th, 2015 Hourly 1 tons of NO X Reductions from On Road Vehicles APCA Run: Contribution by Region Emission reductions by source type in the San Antonio New Braunfels MSA Funding for runs is provided by the Alamo Area MPO Design Value days = Days were the predicted hour ozone > 70 ppb Funding for APCA runs are provided by the Alamo Area MPO APCA Run: IQR Plot of the Contribution by Region, 2018 CAMS 58 in Camp Bullis On ozone Design Value Days (Days when the 2012 predicted ozone is > 70 ppb in 2012) Using TCEQ approved Eagle Ford 2018 Emissions Inventory low development scenario BC = Boundary Conditions San Antonio New Braunfels Local Contribution to 1 hour Ozone by Source Category, C58, Design Value Days Draft Results: Do not cite, quote, or distribute IQR = Interquartile range Whiskers = 1.5 x ICQ Funding for APCA runs are provided by the Alamo Area MPO Funding for APCA runs are provided by the Alamo Area MPO 1

20 7/6/2015 APCA Run: IQR Plot of the Contribution by Local Sources, 2018 San Antonio New Braunfels Hourly VOC and NO X emissions contribution to 1 hour ozone, C58, Design Value Days CAMS 58 in Camp Bullis On ozone Design Value Days (Days when the 2012 predicted ozone is > 70 ppb in 2012) BC = Boundary Conditions IQR = Interquartile range Whiskers = 1.5 x ICQ Draft Results: Do not cite, quote, or distribute Funding for APCA runs are provided by the Alamo Area MPO Funding for APCA runs are provided by the Alamo Area MPO Scheduled Runs (3 Linux Workstations) Updated 2012 run (AACOG received projected emission inventories from TCEQ) Updated 2018 run Updated 2012 Eagle Ford run with local data Updated 2006 run with the latest emission inventory and meteorological files from TCEQ Updated 2018 low scenario Eagle Ford run with local data Runs on individual Point Sources (Spruce 1, Deely, Alamo Cement, Capitol Cement, San Miguel, TXI, CEMEX, Chemical Lime) Control Strategy Runs (3 run+) Anthropogenic Precursor Culpability Assessment (APCA) run with individual San Antonio New Braunfels MSA Counties as regions, 2018 Additional APCA run? Start running the June 2012 photochemical modeling episode Create projection cases for 2020 and 2023 NO X Emissions by Source, San Antonio New Braunfels MSA, tons/ozone season day Funding is provided by the Alamo Area MPO Predicted 8 hour Ozone Design Values C58 Ozone Monitor, 2018 Biogenic Emissions are not available Oil and Gas Development Emissions are only for the San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA CPS Energy Deely Power plant is included in 2018 (but not 2023) Funding for 25%, 50%, and 75% reductions is provided by the Alamo Area MPO 2

21 7/6/ tons of NO X or VOC Emission Reductions by Source Category Point Source 2013 NO X and VOC Emissions, San Antonio New Braunfels MSA, tons/year CAMS 58 Emission reductions by source type in the San Antonio New Braunfels MSA Funding for runs is provided by the Alamo Area MPO Source: TCEQ, Available online: APCA Photochemical Model Run Anthropogenic Precursor Culpability Assessment (APCA) The ozone reaction tracers allow ozone formation from multiple source groupings to be tracked simultaneously A source grouping can be defined in terms of: 1. geographical area and 2. emission category What is the source of the ozone at each regulatory monitor? Run time ~45 days run not completed yet APCA Regions and Categories Regions Dallas Fort Worth Nonattainment (NA) Area Waco Temple IH35 Region Austin Round Rock Metro Stat Area (MSA) San Antonio New Braunfels MSA Houston Galveston Brazoria NA Area Other Texas Counties Other US States and Coastal Areas International (Canada and Mexico) Initial Conditions Boundary conditions Emission Categories Area Non Road/Off Road On Road Point Eagle Ford Oil and Gas Development Biogenic (APCA only attributes ozone production to biogenic emissions when ozone formation is due to the interaction of biogenic VOC with biogenic NO X) APCA Run, June 2018 Projection Case, May 31 st to June 14 th, C58 APCA Run, June 2018 Projection Case, June 15 th to June 30 th, C58 Funding for APCA runs are provided by the Alamo Area MPO Funding for APCA runs are provided by the Alamo Area MPO 3

22 7/6/2015 San Antonio New Braunfels Local Contribution to 1 hour Ozone by Source Category, C23, Design Value Days APCA Run: Contribution by Local Sources Draft Results: Do not cite, quote, or distribute Funding for APCA runs are provided by the Alamo Area MPO Draft Results: Do not Design Value days = Days were the predicted hour cite, ozone quote, > 70 or ppb distribute Funding for APCA runs are provided by the Alamo Area MPO June 2006 Photochemical Modeling Episode WRF v3.2 Meteorological Model, CAMx 6.0 Version 6 of the Carbon Bond photochemical mechanism (CB6) During the episode, 8 hour ozone exceeded 75 ppb on nine days at C58 and six days at C23 Modeling Days: Seven ramp up days, May 24 th May 30 th, Thirty one primary episode days, May 31 st June 30 th and Two ramp down days, July 1 st and 2 nd Emissions were projected to 2012 and 2018 Predicted 8 hour Ozone Design Values, 2018 TCEQ approved EI and Photochemical Model Based on latest TCEQ approved Eagle Ford Emission Inventory Funding for zero out run is provided by the Alamo Area MPO 4