Stabilisation and equilibrium global mean temperatures

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1 - 28 Stabilisation and equilibrium global mean temperatures Equilibrium temperatures reached after 21 Uncertainty of climate sensitivity important Wold CO2 Emissions (GtC) Post-SRES (max) Stabilization targets: E: ppm CO2-eq D: ppm CO2-eq C: ppm CO2-eq B: 5-59 ppm CO2-eq A2: 49-5 ppm CO2-eq A1: ppm CO2-eq Equilibrium global mean temperature increase over preindustrial ( C) Post-SRES (min) Multigas and CO2 only studies combined GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq) IPCC

2 Energy-related related CO 2 emissions in the Reference Scenario Gigatonnes International marine bunkers and aviation Non-OECD - gas Non-OECD - oil Non-OECD - coal OECD -gas OECD -oil OECD -coal 97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2 comes from non-oecd countries three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone Copenhagen: aplausible a post-212 global climate-change change policy regime The 55 45Policy Scenario OECD+ Other Major Economies Other Countries Power generation Cap and trade National Cap and trade policies and measures Industry Transport International sectoral approaches International sectoral approaches National policies and measures Buildings National policies and measures A combination of policy mechanisms reflecting nations varied circumstances & current negotiating positions is a realistic outcome at the Copenhagen COP at end-29

3 Reductions in energy-related related CO 2 emissions in the climate-policy scenarios Gigatonnes Policy Scenario 45 Policy Scenario 9% 14% 23% Nuclear CCS Renewables & biofuels Energy efficiency 54% Reference Scenario 55 Policy Scenario 45 Policy Scenario While technological progress is needed to achieve some emissionsreductions, efficiency gains and deployment of existing low-carbon energy accounts for most of the savings Total power generation capacity today and in 2 by scenario Coal Gas Nuclear 1.2 x today 1.5 x today 1.8 x today Hydro 2.1 x today Wind Other renewables 13.5 x today 12.5 x today Coal and gas with CCS 15% of today s coal & gas capacity GW Today Reference Scenario 2 45 Policy Scenario 2 In the 45 Policy Scenario, the power sector undergoes a dramatic change with CCS, renewables and nuclear each playing a crucial role

4 World energy-related related CO 2 emissions in 2 by scenario Gigatonnes World World 5 Reference Scenario 55 Policy Scenario 45 Policy Scenario OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 45-ppm trajectory, even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero Key results of the post-212 climate-policy analysis 55 Policy Scenario Corresponds to a c.3 C global temperature rise Energy demand continues to expand, but fuel mix is markedly different CO 2 price in OECD countries reaches $9/tonne in 2 Additional investment equal to.% of GDP 45 Policy Scenario Corresponds to a c.2 C global temperature rise Energy demand grows, but half as fast as in Reference Scenario Rapid deployment of low-carbon technologies particularly CCS Big fall in non-oecd emissions CO 2 price in 2 reaches $18/tonne Additional investment equal to.6% of GDP

5 Total power generation capacity today and in 2 by scenario Coal Gas Nuclear 1.2 x today 1.5 x today 1.8 x today Hydro 2.1 x today Wind Other renewables 13.5 x today 12.5 x today Coal and gas with CCS 15% of today s coal & gas capacity GW Today Reference Scenario 2 45 Policy Scenario 2 In the 45 Policy Scenario, the power sector undergoes a dramatic change with CCS, renewables and nuclear each playing a crucial role Change in world energy investment in the 45 Policy relative to the Reference Scenario, Investment in power plants and energy efficiency in the 45 Policy Scenario is substantially higher than in the 55 Policy Scenario

6 Revenue from full auctioning of CO 2 allowances & additional investments in cap-and-trade and-trade regions, Billion dollars (27) Additional investment Revenue from auctioning CO 2 allowances Efficiency Power plants Efficiency Power plants 55 Policy Scenario 45 Policy Scenario Revenues from full auctioning exceed the total additional globalenergy investment needed 55 Impact of Concrete 26 & 27 IEA Recommendations on World Final Energy Consumption 2 low savings estimate 5 EJ 5 Lighting Buildings 45 WEO 26 Projection Transport Equipment EXAJOULES 4 2 moderate savings estimate 83 EJ INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L ENERGIE

7 Summary & conclusions Current energy trends are patently unsustainable socially, environmentally, economically To avoid "abrupt and irreversible" climate change we need a major decarbonisation of the world s energy system > Copenhagen must deliver a credible post-212 climate regime > Limiting temperature rise to 2 C will require significant emission reductions in all regions & technological breakthroughs > Mitigating climate change will substantially improve energy security The present economic worries do not excuse back-tracking or delays in taking action to address climate change challenges