Integrated Transport Systems for Cities Session 2. Ashwin Prabhu Associate, EMBARQ India Feb 12, 2013

Transcription

1 Integrated Transport Systems for Cities Session 2 Ashwin Prabhu Associate, EMBARQ India Feb 12, 2013

2 Session 2: Technology Options for Mass Transit Alternatives Analysis: Qualitative Alternatives Analysis: Quantitative Cost Benefits Analysis Session 3: Case Studies Innovations in Vehicle Sharing

3 What are the technology options for Mass Transit?

4 Road Expansion Cost: $2-5 Million per kilometre Capacity: Up to 7,500 pphpd (3-lanes) Sources: Various Vuchic, Indian Roads Congress

5 Light Rail Cost: $15-40 Million per kilometre Capacity: Up to 12,500 pphpd Sources: Various Vuchic, GIZ BRT Planning Guide (2010)

6 Monorail Cost: $25-50 Million per kilometre Capacity: Up to 15,000 pphpd Sources: Various Vuchic, Urbanaut

7 Metro Cost: $40-80 Million per km (elevated) $ million per km (underground) Capacity: Up to 80,000 pphpd Sources: Various Vuchic, GIZ BRT Planning Guide (2010)

8 BRT Cost: $5-20 Million per kilometre Capacity: Up to 45,000 pphpd Sources: Various Vuchic, GIZ BRT Planning Guide (2010)

9 : How do we evaluate these options? Metro vs. BRT

10 Comprehensive Cost-Benefit Analysis Capacity Analysis Financial Analysis Economic Impact Environmental Impact Social Impact Urban Form Impact Risk Analysis

11 Qualitative Analysis

12 Capacity Analysis System Technology Capacity (pphpd) Hong Kong Subway Metro 80,000 Sao Paolo Line 1 Metro 60,000 Transmilenio BRT 45,000 Mexico City Line B Metro 39,300 Santiago La Moneda Metro 30,000 Sao Paolo 9 de Julho BRT 34,000 Guangzhou G-BRT BRT 26,900 London Victoria Line Metro 25,000 Delhi Metro Red Line (Current) Metro 20,000 Sources: Various GIZ BRT Planning Guide (2010)

13 Capacity Analysis Metro BRT Capacity Analysis

14 Financial Analysis Capital Cost Operations Cost Need for Subsidy

15 Sources: Ibanez (2011) Battle over Avenida Septima

16 Financial Analysis Metro BRT Capital Cost Operational Cost Need for Subsidy

17 Economic Impact Travel Time Savings Impact on Congestion (External Time, Fuel) Opportunity cost of investment

18 Economic Impact Metro BRT Travel Time Savings Impact on Congestion Opportunity Cost

19 Environmental Impact Local Air Pollution Greenhouse Gas Emissions

20 Environmental Impact Metro BRT Local Air Pollution GHG Emissions

21 Social Impact Accessibility Affordability

22 Urban Form Impact Potential for Land Use Integration Gestation Period

23 Social and Urban Form Impact 30% Percentage of Income spent on transport by average Bangalore resident if travelling by Namma Metro Only Time Network Namma Metro 9 years 42 Km Janmarg 9 years 140 km Sources: Various EMBARQ India Analysis, BMRCL, Janmarg Ltd

24 Social and Urban Form Impact Metro BRT Affordability Accessibility Gestation Period Urban Form Impact

25 Risk Analysis Construction Risk Political Risk

26 Risk Analysis Metro BRT Construction Risk Political Risk Tie

27 Overall Qualitative Scorecard Capacity Analysis Capital Cost Operational Cost Need for Subsidy Travel Time Impact Impact on Congestion Opportunity Cost Local Air Pollution GHG Emissions Affordability Accessibility Gestation Period Impact on Urban Form Construction Risk Political Risk Metro Tie BRT

28 Quantitative Analysis

29 Scenario: A mass transit system is being planned for a 20km stretch in Bangalore. The characteristics are as follows: Corridor Length (KM) 20 Daily Demand 3,50,000 Peak Hour Peak Direction 35,000 Average Trip Length (km) 8

30 Alternatives: Do-nothing (Regular City Bus Service) Metro Rail System High Capacity BRT System

31 Cost Assumptions - Infrastructure Infrastructure Cost Do-Nothing Metro H-BRT Infrastructure (Rs Crore/Km) Corridor Length Total Cost

32 Cost Assumptions - Maintenance Maintenance Cost (Annual) Do-Nothing Metro H-BRT Maintenance (Rs. Crore) Corridor Length (KM) Total Annual Maintenance Cost

33 Cost Assumption Calculating Rolling Stock Requirement

34 Cost Assumption Rolling Stock Cost Rolling Stock Cost Do-Nothing Metro H-BRT Max Capacity Planned Capacity 70% 70% 70% Effective Capacity Speed Cycle Time (Hrs) Frequency (Demand/Effective Capacity) Headway (1/Frequency) Fleet Requirement (Cycle Time/Headway) Cost per Unit (Rs. Crore) Total Rolling Stock Cost

35 Cost Assumption Operating Cost Operations Cost Do-Nothing Metro H-BRT Daily Hours of Operation Round Trips per Unit (Daily Hrs/Cycle Time) Distance per Round Trip (KM) Daily Service KM per Unit FTE Days Per Year Units Annual Service KM 16,36,40,400 2,43,54,000 7,65,20,400 Operating Cost per KM (Rs) Total Annual Operating Cost (Rs. Crore)

36 Assumptions Benefit Assumptions Money Value of Time Rs. 50 Other Benefits of Metro are 5x that of H-BRT

37 Benefits Assumptions Benefits Do-Nothing Metro H-BRT Average Trip Length (KM) Travel Time (Trip Length/Speed) Travel Time Savings Time Value per Hour (Rs) Travel Time Benefit per Pax Pax Per Day 3,50,000 3,50,000 3,50,000 Equivalent Days per Year Pax Per Year 11,55,00,000 11,55,00,000 11,55,00,000 Travel Time Savings Per Year Other Benefits Total Benefits per Year

38 Net Present Value Calculation over 20 years

39 Total Costs Total NPV Costs Do-Nothing Metro H-BRT Infrastructure , , Maintenance Rolling Stock -1, Operations -5, , Total -6, , ,784.64

40 Net NPV Benefits Net Benefits Analysis Do-Nothing Metro H-BRT Infrastructure Cost Savings 0-5, , Maintenance Cost Savings Rolling Stock Cost Savings Operational Cost Savings 0 5, , Travel Time Benefits 0 1, Other Benefits Net Benefits 0 1, ,832.44

41 6, Net Benefit Analysis 4, , , , ( 2,000.00) Metro H-BRT ( 4,000.00) ( 6,000.00) ( 8,000.00) Infrastructure Cost Savings Maintenance Cost Savings Rolling Stock Cost Savings Operational Cost Savings Travel Time Benefits Other Benefits Net Benefits

42 Conclusion Metro Rail solutions are very rarely the right answer For most corridors in most cities in most countries, BRT is a more cost- and time-effective solution BUT The key message is: Do not be beholden to a particular technology the aim is to choose the right technology for the right corridor at the right time

43 Thank You! Questions?