Trends in South African manufacturing production, employment and trade

Transcription

1 Trends in South African manufacturing production, employment and trade Image Copyright: Creative Commons sa/3.0/ Department of Research and Information Industrial Development Corporation Your partner in development finance Fourth Quarter 20

2 CONTENTS Selected trade trends: Introduction.. 3 Trade balance.. 3 Composition of trade.. 3 Regional trade.. 4 Trade balance per region Trade focus: Africa s trade with the BRIC countries.. 0 Manufacturing sector performance: Physical volume of production.. 3 capacity utilisation.. 5 Employment Total manufacturing... 9 Performance of manufacturing sub-sectors: o Food. 20 o Beverages... 2 o Tobacco o Textiles o Wearing apparel.. 24 o Leather and leather products o Footwear o Wood and wood products o Paper and paper products. 28 o Printing, publishing and recorded media o Coke and refined petroleum products. 30 o Basic chemicals.. 3 o Other chemical and man-made fibres o Rubber products. 33 o Plastic products.. 34 o Glass and glass products o Non-metallic mineral products.. 36 o Basic iron and steel o Basic non-ferrous metallic products o Metal products excluding machinery.. 39 o Machinery and equipment. 40 o Electrical machinery.. 4 o TV, radio and communication equipment.. 42 o Professional and scientific apparatus o Motor vehicles, parts and accessories.. 44 o Other transport equipment 45 o Furniture o Other manufacturing.. 47 o Acronyms and data sources. 48 Page 2

3 Selected trade trends Introduction The global financial and economic crisis brought to an abrupt end the longest upswing phase in South Africa s recorded economic history. Domestic economic activity slowed further in the first semester of 20, with the economy officially entering a recession during the first quarter of the year. Weak domestic and export demand resulted in production levels declining across most sectors of the economy, with only agriculture, construction, government and community services recording increases during the first six months of 20 relative to the previous semester. The decline in economic activity during the first quarter of 20 was the largest since 984, recording an annualised 6.4% contraction in real terms compared to the fourth quarter of 20. Economic activity during the first semester of 20 was 2% lower than in the corresponding period last year. Trade balance R billion SA trade balance Trade balance Semester The deficit on South Africa s balance of trade narrowed significantly to R8.9 billion in the first half of 20, compared to the R.7 billion deficit recorded over the corresponding period in 20. This improvement can be ascribed to the steep drop in merchandise imports as South African household spending came under severe pressure and private sector investment activity decelerated substantially. Considerably lower crude oil prices also resulted in a much reduced import bill. Subdued global demand as a result of the unfolding crisis led to a poor export performance. Composition of trade from South Africa recorded an average nominal growth rate of 5.% per annum over the six-year period to 20. This growth trend was abruptly broken as the worldwide economic downturn took a toll on global trade flows. Consequently, South Africa s total exports fell by 6.6% in the first six months of 20 compared to the corresponding period in 20, with a considerable 3.6% decline in intermediate goods exports. South Africa s export basket is overwhelmingly dominated by intermediate goods (including raw materials), which represented 67.7% of total annual export earnings, on average, over the six years to 20. Intermediate exports were also the fastest growing export category, with a 7% annual growth rate recorded over the same period. Such exports were dominated by mineral products such as gold, coal, iron and its concentrates, as well as platinum and ferro-alloys. Products such as motor vehicles, maize and fruits make up the bulk of consumer goods exports, while centrifuges, aluminum plates, motor vehicle parts and accessories, as well as machinery, top the list of capital goods exports. Page 3

4 Selected trade trends into South Africa grew at an average nominal growth rate of 8.6% per annum over the six year period ending in 20, driven mainly by strong growth in intermediate imports. The first six months of 20, however, witnessed a 20.4% decline compared to the corresponding period in 20, mainly as a result of a deteriorating domestic economic environment. The relative of intermediate imports in South Africa s overall import basket fluctuated between 47% and 52% over the six year period, while their value grew on average by 20.6% per annum over the same period. In the first half of 20, intermediate imports accounted for 48.7% of total imports, while consumer goods and capital goods claimed 23.% and 28.2% of the import basket, respectively. The sharp decline in intermediate imports experienced since the first half of 20 can be attributed to several factors including: the slowing down in economic activity both locally and globally, which in turn led to lower production activity, and the SA imports by broad economic classification fall in commodity prices such as crude oil Consumer goods Intermediate goods Capital goods The top imported intermediate products during the first half of 20 were crude oil, motor vehicle components, medicaments and petroleum oils obtained from bituminous minerals. The leading imported consumer products during this period included motor cars, rice, as well as medical instruments and apparatus, while the top imported capital equipment included telephones for wireless networks, aircraft, data processing machines and spark combustion engines. Regional trade The regional distribution of South Africa s trade with the rest of the world has changed noticeably over the past ten years, with Asia (including the Middle East) and the European Union (EU) exchanging positions as the former became the leading regional trading partner (with a 42.4% of the total import basket in the first half of 20). from Asia increased from R4.6 billion in 998 to almost R30 billion in 20. However, Asian imports were 20.7% lower in the first half of 20 than in the corresponding period a year earlier. from the rest of the African continent fell by 34.6% over the same period, with imports from other member states of the Southern Asia European Union NAFTA Africa Other America Oceania Other Europe Rest of World Asia European Union Africa Rest of World NAFTA Other Europe Oceania Other Americas SA trade by region Semester, 20 Sources of imports' Destinations of exports' 0% 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% Page 4

5 Selected trade trends African Development Community (SADC) declining by approximately 45%. This was in sharp contrast to imports from European countries that are not members of the EU (referred to in the graphs as Other Europe ), which recorded strong growth of 20.4% during the same period, particularly in categories such as other mining, non-basic chemicals and man-made fibres, as well as machinery and equipment. The majority of South Africa s imports from Asia originate from, Saudi Arabia and Japan, with a combined 53.5% of total imports from the Asian region. The leading sources of imports in the EU include, the United Kingdom and France, with a combined 58.2% of overall imports from this regional block. In Africa, Nigeria, Angola and Mozambique account for a 67.4% of South Africa s imports from the rest of the continent. from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) region are dominated by the United States of America (), with about 87% of the total. The European Union and Asia have remained the leading regional destinations for South Africa s exports over the past ten years, each accounting for nearly a 30% of total exports in 20. The first half of 20, however, saw Asia surge ahead as the leading export destination, with 25.5% of South Africa s overall exports destined for this region, as compared to the 20.9% claimed by the European Union. South Africa s exports to Asia increased seven-fold SA trade growth by region Semester, 20 compared to Semester, 20 between 998 and 20, from R27.5 billion to Other Europe Other America NAFTA Rest of World Total World Oceania Asia European Union Africa Other Europe Rest of World Import growth R88.9 billion, thus representing an average annual growth of 2.3% during this period., Japan and India, with a combined of 68.5%, take up the bulk of South Africa s exports into Asia, with alone claiming more than half of this. The top export destinations in the European Union Africa Total World include, the United Kingdom and the Export growth Asia Other Americas Netherlands, with a 62% combined. The European Union NAFTA leading export destinations in Africa include Oceania -% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% % Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia, with a 42.2% combined of South Africa s exports to the rest of the continent. to NAFTA are dominated by the, which accounts for over % of South Africa s exports to this regional trade bloc. The worldwide recession has affected South Africa s export drive into most regions, with the exception of the European region outside of the EU, as well as the rest of the African continent, which recorded growth rates of 58.3% and 2.6%, respectively, in the first half of 20 relative to the corresponding period a year earlier. The drop in exports was particularly evident in Oceania (including Australia, New Zealand and the islands of Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia) and in NAFTA, with contractions of 55.2% and 4.9%, respectively. Page 5

6 Selected trade trends Trade balance by region South Africa has enjoyed a trade surplus with the rest of the African continent for many years and with the NAFTA region from 20 until the first semester of 20. Substantial trade deficits have been recorded in recent years with the Asian region, the European Union and, to a lesser extent the Americas outside of NAFTA. The balance of trade between South Africa and each of the seven major regions, as well as the leading traded product categories, are illustrated in the following graphs. Page 6

7 with major regional blocs R billion SA trade balance with Africa Trade balance Top traded products: 20, semester Other goods 55.0% Basic non-ferrous metals Machinery & equipment Agriculture, forestry & fishing Electricity, gas & steam Share of exports 0 0 Other mining Other goods Other chemicals & man-made fibers 70.7% -0 Agriculture, forestry & fishing Food Motor vehicles, parts & accessories Share of imports -40 Machinery & equipment 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% Semester R billion SA trade balance with Asia Trade balance Top traded products: 20, semester Other mining Other goods Basic iron & steel Coal mining Basic non-ferrous metals Basic chemicals Other goods Share of exports Other mining Machinery & equipment Motor vehicles, parts & accessories Television, radio & communication equipment Share of imports -200 Semester Coke & refined petroleum products 0% 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% R billion SA trade balance with the EU Trade balance Top traded products: 20, semester Other goods Other mining Coal mining Machinery & equipment Agriculture, forestry & fishing Motor vehicles, parts & accessories Other goods Machinery & equipment Motor vehicles, parts & accessories Other chemicals & man-made fibers Electrical machinery Share of exports Share of imports -50 Semester Other transport equipment 0% 5% 30% 45% Page 7

8 with major regional blocs R billion 8 6 SA trade balance with Europe (excl EU) Trade balance Top traded products: 20, semester Other mining 72.4% Other industries Other goods Agriculture, forestry & fishing Coal mining Basic non-ferrous metals Other goods Other mining Other chemicals & man-made fibers Machinery & equipment Professional & scientific equipment Share of exports Share of imports -8 Electrical machinery 0% 0% 20% 30% 40% Semester R billion SA trade balance with NAFTA Top traded products: 20, semester Motor vehicles, parts & accessories Other goods 30 Other mining 20 0 Basic chemicals Basic non-ferrous metals Share of exports 0 Machinery & equipment Other goods Machinery & equipment Motor vehicles, parts & accessories Other chemicals & man-made fibers Share of imports Trade balance Semester Other transport equipment Professional & scientific equipment 0% 0% 20% 30% 40% R billion 5 0 SA trade balance with other Americas Top traded products: 20, semester Other goods Basic chemicals Motor vehicles, parts & accessories Machinery & equipment Basic iron & steel Other chemicals & man-made fibers Other goods Machinery & equipment Other transport equipment Other chemicals & man-made fibers Share of exports Share of imports Trade balance Professional & scientific equipment -20 Semester Motor vehicles, parts & accessories 0% 5% 30% 45% Page 8

9 with major regional blocs R billion SA trade balance with Oceania Top traded products: 20, semester Other goods Motor vehicles, parts & accessories Coal mining Machinery & equipment Food Basic iron & steel Basic non-ferrous metals Share of exports -4 Other goods Coal mining -6 Machinery & equipment Share of imports -8 Food -0 Trade balance Other chemicals & man-made fibers 0% 0% 20% 30% 40% Semester Page 9

10 Trade focus: Africa's trade with the BRIC countries Africa s trade with the BRIC economies is gaining momentum Africa s trade with the world s four largest emerging markets, namely Brazil, Russia, India and (collectively known as the BRIC countries), has grown from US$20.3 billion in 200 to about US$62 billion in 20. The significance of the BRIC countries in the world is demonstrated by their increasing in global economic activity over time. Their combined of global gross domestic product (GDP) stood at 22.3% in 20, whilst accounting for 3.3% of world exports of goods and services in the same year at purchasing power parity. Moreover, in 20, the BRICs accounted for 42.6% of the global population. Africa's trade with the BRIC countries USD billion Brazil Russia India Brazil s trade with the African continent has expanded significantly over time, amounting to approximately US$22.6 billion in 20. This placed Brazil in 0 th position within the list of Africa s top global trading partners. Brazil s imports from Africa are largely sourced from countries that are well endowed with energy and other resources, such as Nigeria, Angola and Algeria, with the specific imported products being crude petroleum oils and fertilisers. Brazil exports mainly sugars and sugar confectionery products, meat and edible meat offal, vehicles, as well as mineral fuels and oils to the African continent. Russia s trade with Africa has also increased in importance despite strong competition from and Africa s traditional trading partners such as the United States and the European Union. In an attempt to enhance its trade with the least developed countries, the Russian Federation introduced a Preferential Trade Agreement. The latter allows for preferential tariff treatment on certain goods primarily sourced from least developed nations, including African countries. Russia imports largely edible fruits and nuts, cocoa and cocoa products from Africa, whereas the African continent imports mainly wheat and barley, sulphur, mineral fuels and oils from Russia. A substantial portion of Africa s trade with India has been conducted through companies located or represented in South Africa. Over the years, multinationals such as Tata, Mahindra & Mahindra, Ranbaxy, Reliance and ArcelorMittal entered the African market, with a particular focus on South Africa. India has not only been interested in securing energy assets in Africa, but also in advancing bilateral trade. Earlier this year, India expressed a keen interest in enhancing its presence in Africa as well as in growing its export in the continent following its growing production of generics. African exports to India in recent years have included Page 0

11 Trade focus: Africa's trade with the BRIC countries mineral fuels and oils, gold, platinum, precious stones, metals and coins. Indian exports to Africa, in turn, have consisted largely of petroleum products (not crude), vehicles and pharmaceutical products. has effectively become the African continent s strategic and largest trading partner. According to the International Trade Centre, trade between and the African continent grew more than ten-fold, from a mere US$8.6 billion in 200 to US$96.8 billion by 20. The East Asian giant accounted for almost 60% of Africa s overall trade with the BRIC countries in 20. Electrical and electronic equipment, machinery and equipment, as well as vehicles dominate Africa s imports from. On the other hand, approximately 72% of the continent s exports to consist of crude petroleum oils, complemented to a lesser extent by petroleum gasses. The promotion of two-way trade and investment between the Asian giant and African countries is one of the key objectives of the strategic partnership envisaged by the Forum on -Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). South Africa s trade with the BRIC economies is dominated by and India USD million South Africa's trade with the BRIC countries Brazil Russia India South Africa s trade with the BRIC economies (i.e. Brazil, Russia, India and ) has expanded enormously over the past eight years, but is overwhelmingly dominated by trade with and, to a much lesser extent, India The progressive strengthening of South Africa s trade and investment relations at the bilateral level with each of these large emerging markets, as well as the IBSA initiative between India, Brazil and South Africa to promote South-South cooperation and exchange, have contributed to this trade performance. South Africa s imports from Brazil increased from US$54 million in 20 to US$20 million in 20. The imported products consisted mainly of commodities, machinery and equipment. Over the same period, South Africa s exports to Brazil more than doubled from US$38 million to almost US$ million, with the top product categories being ferro-alloys and motor vehicle components. The Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) concluded between the Southern African Customs Union (SACU, which comprises Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland) and the Mercado Común del Sur (MERCOSUR or MERCOSUL, comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) is expected to enhance trade flows between the two regional block to a considerable extent. Page

12 Trade focus: Africa's trade with the BRIC countries South Africa s imports from Russia expanded substantially from US$40 million in 20 to US$30 million in 20. The bulk of the imported products were mineral fuels and oils, including crude petroleum oils, as well as fertilisers. South Africa s exports to Russia, in turn, grew from US$97 million in 20 to almost US$240 million by 20. The leading exports to Russia included edible fruits and nuts, machinery and mechanical appliances. India is South Africa s 6 th largest trading partner in Asia, with the total trade between the two countries having more than doubled from US$.2 billion in 20 to US$4.4 billion in 20. India s principal imports from South Africa last year were inorganic chemicals (principally phosphoric acid), coal and coal products. South Africa s imports from India, in turn, were dominated by petroleum (not crude) and petroleum products, electrical and electronic equipment, and to a lesser extent pharmaceutical products. Trade has been supported by cooperation agreements between the two countries in various sectors, with the IBSA initiative providing significant momentum. Negotiations are underway for the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) to enter into a Preferential Trade Agreement with India. This is expected to boost Indian exports to SACU and to encourage Indian companies to do business with, and invest in Southern Africa. overtook the United States as South Africa s largest export destination since the start of 20, as economic and trade relations between the two countries intensified. s imports from South Africa are dominated by ores (specifically iron ores and concentrates), as well as iron and steel, including ferro-alloys and flat-rolled products of stainless steel. South Africa s leading imports from were electrical machinery and electronic equipment, electrical appliances, computing and printing equipment. According to the International Trade Centre, overall trade between South Africa and increased from US$4.5 billion in 20 to almost US$4 billion in 20. The bilateral relationship has been progressively strengthened since the Pretoria Declaration on the Partnership between the People s Republic of and the Republic of South Africa, which was signed in The two countries established a Strategic Partnership in 20 and adopted a cooperation programme to deepen such a partnership in Cape Town in 20. A Joint Ministerial Commission has provided an effective platform for and South Africa to engage more regularly on economic issues, while South African President Jacob Zuma and his Chinese counterpart, President Hu Jintao, agreed in New York, in September 20, to deepen bilateral relations and boost cooperation between the two countries in various fields. Page 2

13 Manufacturing sector performance Introduction A steadily declining in South Africa s gross domestic product (GDP) since the early 9s resulted in the manufacturing sector being overtaken by the financial and business services sector as the largest sector in the economy in 20. The significance of the manufacturing sector is portrayed by its 7.2% contribution to nominal GDP in the second quarter of 20, whilst employing approximately.43 million people in 20 (equivalent to.3% of the total labour force). South Africa s re-integration into the global economy since 994 presented a multitude of trade opportunities, with the manufacturing sector playing an increasingly important role in terms of exports. Whereas manufactured exports accounted for only 36% of overall merchandise exports in 9, this rose rapidly over the past decade to just over 58% by 20. However, it declined to around 53% in the second quarter of 20 on the back of reduced global demand in light of the economic crisis. South Africa s manufactured export basket is highly concentrated from a sectoral perspective, with the basic iron and steel sub-sector accounting for 5.5% of overall manufactured exports, followed by motor vehicles, parts and accessories with a 5.4% and the machinery and equipment sub-sector with 9.8% (refer to the graph on page 7). Combined, these three highly export-oriented sub-sectors represent just over 40% of all manufactured exports, with the main destinations for their products being, the and Europe. Manufactured goods account for the majority of the import basket, representing some 82% of overall merchandise imports in the second quarter of 20. South Africa s heavy reliance on imported capital goods (particularly machinery and equipment), result in the capital goods category accounting for the majority of overall imports, whilst intermediate goods and consumer items also carry significant weights in the import basket. Physical volume of production Weak consumer spending, a continued reduction in inventories and lower fixed investment activity reduced demand for manufactured products and thus led to lower production volumes in the first half of 20. Manufacturers have been reducing their inventories since the latter part of 20, as domestic demand startered faltering in reaction to interest rate increases from June 20 onwards. As the global credit crisis subsequently unfolded in the United States and United Kingdom, the trend was compounded. Excessive levels of indebtedness, high interest rates, reduced net wealth and job insecurity or retrenchments have weakened consumer spending dramatically in recent times. South African households have been postponing big ticket item purchases, impacting on the demand for durable goods and certain semi-durable items. Spending on non-durable goods has been less impacted upon, as these are usually items of necessity. However, even in this category the consumer has tended to trade down to cheaper products. Some semidurable spending is being supported by households cutting back on dispensable luxuries, such as overseas. Page 3

14 Manufacturing sector performance vacations, which may result in higher purchases of items like home entertainment products. The sub-sectors that reported the largest contractions in production volumes in the first half of 20, relative to the same period in 20, are Physical volume of production change heavily dependent on international Semester, 20 compared to Semester, 20 demand, such as the automotive sub-sector and related industries, which were adversely impacted Total Manufacturing (00) Other transport equipment (0.9) upon by lower consumer and Plastic products (2.7) Beverages (6.8) corporate spending worldwide. Glass and glass products (.0) The decline in investment activity in Electrical machinery (2.5) Food and food products (8.6) South Africa, and more importantly Footwear (0.4) across the globe, has been Coke, petroleum products and nuclear fuel (8.5) Professional equipment (0.7) particularly impacting on: the basic iron and steel sub-sector, which Other chemicals (5.3) Wearing apparel (2.3) Basic precious and non-ferrous metal products (3.4) contributes 7.7% to overall Printing and publishing (4.4) manufacturing production and Radio, television and communication apparatus (0.4) Paper and paper products (3.8) recorded a 42.4% decline in Furniture (.3) production volumes in the first half of 20, relative to the same period in 20; the basic chemicals subsector, with a 4.5% contribution to manufacturing sector output and a 30.5% drop in production in the first semester of the year; as well as the Metal products (5.8) Rubber products (.0) Wood and products of wood (2.0) Non-metallic mineral products (3.8) Textiles (.6) Machinery (6.) Other manufacturing (3.9) Leather (0.6) Basic chemicals (4.5) Motor vehicles, parts and accessories (0.) machinery and equipment subsector, Basic iron and steel products (7.7) which accounts for 6.% of Figures in brackets refer to the sub sector's percentage -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% in manufactuing production overall manufacturing production and recorded a 2% contraction in output in the first six months of 20 compared to the same period last year. South African as well as foreign consumer and investment expenditure remain under severe pressure despite steep interest rate cuts and sizeable stimulus packages provided by most of the world s largest economies. South Africa s wearing apparel and textiles sub-sectors have been under pressure for several years, largely due to aggressive foreign competion in the local market and a gradual loss in domestic competitiveness relative to global counterparts, particularly in Asia. The economic downturn and subsequent developments have compounded their difficulties, particularly as the Rand strengthened, imported items became cheaper, local labour costs increased and the overall competitiveness of these sub-sectors was further eroded. Page 4

15 Manufacturing sector performance The continued reduction in inventories will eventually result in manufacturing production having to rise with the first signs of an upturn in demand. Manufacturing volumes have risen in recent months in parts of the world, but this has mainly been as a result of the stimulus packages that boosted demand to some extent. However, signs of sustained demand are still lacking, especially from the consumer side. The South African manufacturing sector s recovery will be highly dependent on the revival of international demand, both consumer and industrial demand, as well as on the resumption of local consumer spending and private sector investment activity. Manufacturing activity is expected to respond fairly rapidly to an increase in domestic household demand or export demand, since inventories have been significantly run down. capacity utilisation production capacity utilisation Semester, 20 compared to Semester, 20 Total manufacturing (77) Electrical machinery (84) Footwear (92) Furniture (89) Plastic (82) Food () Radio, television and communication apparatus (87) Printing, publishing & recorded media (79) Coke & refined petroleum products (84) Other chemicals (76) Other transport equipment (76) Wearing apparel () Beverages (77) Paper & paper products (87) Non-metalic minerals (8) Glass & glass products (87) Wood & wood products (82) Rubber () Professional equipment (82) Basic chemicals (79) Textiles (73) Metal products (excl machinery) (74) Basic non-ferrous metals (8) Leather & leather products (69) Other manufacturing groups () Machinery (75) Motor vehicles parts & accessories (69) Basic iron & steel (58) Figures in brackets refer to the sub sector's average production capacity utilisation during the first semester Percentage points Changes in the utilisation of production capacity reflect the relationship between physical production levels and the level of investment or divestment in a particular industry. In certain industries, it may be fairly easy to expand or reduce production capacity in line with final demand, while this is not likely to be the case in capital intensive subsectors. The sharp reduction in the utilisation of production capacity in the basic iron and steel sub-sector (a 2.8 percentage point decline to 58%) is a reflection of the much lower demand for its products, particularly as fixed investment activity contracted throughout the globe, including South Africa. The decision to retain production capacity in this sector is indicative of the industry s expectations of a recovery in demand. The motor vehicles and components sub-sector is facing its greatest crisis on record, hence the very low utilsation of production capacity (at 69%). However, recent announcements regarding capital investments in Page 5

16 Manufacturing sector performance the South African automotive industry are indicative of its relative optimism over the medium to long term. in the wearing apparel and textiles sub-sectors has declined further, despite the recent closure of sizeable operations. As demand for furniture declined in reaction to recessionary conditions locally and abroad, domestic furniture manufacturers have not been as optimistic as their counterparts in the basic iron and steel industry. A reduction in production capacity provides reasons for serious concern as it may be permanently lost and hamper the speed and extent of an eventual recovery Employment At the end of 20, approximately.43 million people were employed in the manufacturing sector, or approximately less than in 20. Any employment gains recorded at the start of 20 were reversed by year-end. A further jobs were lost in the South African manufacturing sector in the first three quarters of 20, on the back of sharply curtailed production volumes and reduced capacity utilisation. Despite the significant drop in production levels and idle capacity in the motor vehicles and parts sub-sector, which accounts for 9.% of overall manufacturing sector employment, only a marginal decline in employment was reported in 20 relative to the previous year. This is perhaps indicative of auto manufacturers not necessarily laying off workers in an effort to retain skills, as they anticipate a recovery in demand. Lower production in the labourintensive wearing apparel and textiles sub-sectors, in conjunction with idle production capacity, have resulted in a considerable cut in employment levels. Since a large portion of the jobs in these subsectors are in the low- or semiskilled categories, employers are less concerned with worker retention. Employment change in manufacturing 20 compared 20 Total manufacturing (00.0) Coke and refined petroleum products (.4) Paper and paper products (2.7) Basic iron and steel (3.7) Other transport equipment (0.9) Electrical machinery (3.) Rubber products () Food (.9) Machinery and equipment (8.) Basic chemicals (.5) Other chemicals and man-made fibres (3.4) Leather and leather products (0.5) Motor vehicles, parts and accessories (9.) Printing, publishing and recorded media (3.8) Beverages (3.8) Wood and wood products (5.2) Metal products excluding machinery (9.7) Footwear (0.8) Plastic products (2.6) Glass and glass products (0.7) Television, radio and communication equipment (0.5) Textiles (4) Basic non-ferrous metals (.6) Non-metallic minerals (4.9) Other industries (5.3) Furniture (2.9) Wearing apparel (6.2) Figures in brackets refer to the sub sector's percentage in manufactuing employment -20% -0% 0% 0% 20% 30% Page 6

17 Manufacturing sector performance Weaker demand for South Africa s export products and lower domestic investment activity have impacted on production volumes in various other sub-sectors of manufacturing and consequently on employment levels. For instance, reduced activity in the building industry and the steep decline in motor vehicle production have resulted in lower demand for glass and plastic products, with the respective sub-sectors reporting significant cuts in employment. Reduced fixed investment activity both locally and abroad has also impacted on demand for structural building products such as basic iron and steel, basic non-ferrous metals, as well as non-metallic minerals. Consequently, these sub-sectors have also been reporting lower employment levels. Export growth in manufacturing Semester, 20 compared to Semester, 20 The Rand s strengthening since the start of 20 has hampered the Manufacturing Total (00%) competitiveness of South Africa s manufactured export Tobacco (0.6%) 53.% Glass & glass products (0.5%) 83.7% products, compounding the Food (5.8%) Professional & scientific equipment (.6%) Beverages (3.%) Footwear (0.%) Other industries (6.7%) Printing, publishing & recorded media (0.2%) Plastic products (0.9%) Paper & paper products (3.8%) Other chemicals & man-made fibers (4.3%) Coke & refined petroleum products (4.8%) Electrical machinery (2.0%) Metal products excluding machinery (3.2%) challenges associated with sharply weaker global demand. In the first semester of 20, manufactured exports declined by just over 23.5% compared to the same period in 20, with the largest decline being recorded in the basic iron and steel sub-sector (a Textiles (0.9%) 47.% contraction in exports), Television, radio & communication equipment (.2%) Rubber products (0.8%) which is indicative of the massive Wearing apparel (0.2%) slowdown in infrastructure Wood & wood products (0.9%) Basic non-ferrous metals (6.5%) development and global Non-metallic minerals (0.5%) manufacturing production. The Basic chemicals (8.4%) Motor vehicles, parts & accessories (5.4%) Furniture (.%) basic iron and steel sub-sector accounts for 5.5% of overall Other transport equipment (0.9%) Machinery & equipment (9.8%) manufactured exports. The Leather & leather products (0.%) Basic iron & steel (5.5%) enormous increase in tobacco Figures in brackets refer to the sub sector's percentage in manufactuing exports exports may be associated with -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% better harvests locally or poor output levels in other countries, such as Zimbabwe, rather than a significant increase in international demand. The consumption-inducing incentives provided by the and some European countries, where subsidies are paid for the purchase of new vehicles, have resulted in a rise in motor vehicle sales, but this is not likely to be sustainable. The implications for South Africa are that exports of motor vehicles may remain depressed for quite some time. Page 7

18 Manufacturing sector performance Economic activity remains weak in most parts of Europe and in the, although there are signs of recovery, while the Chinese government recently curtailed investments in certain industries in an attempt to curb over-capacity. Furthermore, exchange rate volatility and excessive Rand strength in recent monts is posing a serious threat to the sustainability of export-oriented enterprises. These factors indicate that the demand for manufactured exports may remain under considerable pressure in the short- to medium-term. Import growth in manufacturing Semester, 20 compared to Semester, 20 During the first six months of 20, imports of manufactured products declined by 9.2% relative to the Manufacturing Total (00%) same period in 20. This reflects Tobacco (0.%) Beverages (0.9%) the slowdown in local investment Footwear (.%) activity, which has reduced the Wearing apparel (2.2%) Other chemicals & man-made fibers (8.5%) demand for capital goods imports, Textiles (.6%) as well as the duress facing Printing, publishing & recorded media (0.5%) Food (5.2%) households, who are shying away Electrical machinery (5.7%) from dispensable consumer items. Paper & paper products (.7%) Metal products excluding machinery (2.6%) of motor vehicles, parts Plastic products (.4%) and accessories (5% of overall Professional & scientific equipment (4.0%) Television, radio & communication equipment (5.5%) imports of manufactured products) Rubber products (.4%) have fallen sharply (-36.5%) in Basic iron & steel (2.4%) Other industries (.6%) reaction to plummeting new Glass & glass products (0.4%) vehicle sales in South Africa and, Leather & leather products (0.3%) Machinery & equipment (20.7%) where imports of components are Wood & wood products (0.6%) concerned, due to the overall drop Furniture (0.6%) Other transport equipment (3.7%) in local vehicle production. The Coke & refined petroleum products (4.8%) 7.5% fall in machinery and Basic chemicals (4.9%) Non-metallic minerals (.2%) equipment imports (20.7% of Motor vehicles, parts & accessories (5.0%) Basic non-ferrous metals (.5%) manufactured imports) is indicative Figures in brackets refer to the sub sector's percentage of lower capital expenditure in -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% % in manufactuing imports South Africa, with companies postponing expansions and upgrades until such time as the outlook for their industries improves. of consumer and intermediate goods will remain subdued until household spending revives. Such a recovery is likely to be slow, as the indebtedness of consumers will first have to moderate before spending accelerates. Exchange rate movements will also impact on the competitiveness of local products, and should be a key determinant of changes in import demand from South African manufacturers and consumers alike. Page 8

19 00 Total manufacturing Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -6.9 (Percentage points) -3.4% -23.5% -9.2% Employment (y/y) (R) (R) index (%) Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester HS2 code : Sector description H84: Machinery and equipment, mechanical appliances H85: Electrical machinery and electronic equipment H87: Vehicles, parts and accessories H98: Original motor vehicle equipment components H27: Petroleum and petroleum products, excl. crude oil Total (including others) H72: Iron and steel H87: Vehicles, parts and accessories H84: Machinery and equipment, mechanical appliances H76: Aluminium and articles thereof H27: Petroleum and petroleum products (refined), excluding crude oil Total (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) HS2 Code: Sector description Change in H7: Natural or cultured pearls, precious stones and metals H22: Beverages, spirits and vinegar H7: Sugars and sugar confectionery H24: Tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes H: Optical, photo, measuring and medical equipment 465. H48: Paper & paperboard, articles of pulp, paper and board 400. H: Milling products, malt, starches, inulin, wheat gluten H70: Glass and glassware 2.94 H30: Pharmaceutical products H2: Miscellaneous edible preparations Japan France Italy Zimbabwe Zambia Mozambique 20: Semester 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% Page 9

20 8.6 Food Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -0.3 (Percentage points) 0.6% 2.3% -5.2% Employment (y/y) (R) (R) index (%) 0 89 Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester H0: Rice H23: Soya-bean oil-cake and other solid residues H5: Palm oil and its fractions, not chemically modified H: Meat, edible offal of domestic poultry H6: Prepared or preserved fish, fish eggs, caviar total value (including others) H70: Solid cane/ beet sugar & chemically pure sucrose H20: Fruit, edible plant parts nes, prepared/preserved H20: Fruit and vegetable juices, not fermented/ spirited H: Fish, frozen, whole H: Fish fillets, fish meat, mince except liver, roe total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H70: Solid cane/ beet sugar & chemically pure sucrose 6.0 H: Cereal grouts, meal and pellets 3.72 H20: Fruit and vegetable juices, not fermented/ spirited 5.98 H2: Food preparations, nes 77.2 H9: Baked bread, pastry, wafers, rice paper, etc H: Fish, frozen, whole 6. H: Meat, edible offal of domestic poultry H0: Wheat or meslin flour H8: Chocolate and other foods containing cocoa 56. H2: Flour, meal of oleaginous seed/fruit Thailand Argentina Brazil Malaysia Indonesia Netherlands Zimbabwe Mozambique Italy Japan Zambia 20: Semester 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% Page 20

21 6.8 Beverages Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, 20.8% -3.0 (Percentage points) -2.5% Employment (y/y) 7.4% 32.3% (R) (R) index (%) Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester H22: Liqueur, spirits & undenatured ethyl alcohol <% H: Malt H22: Beer made from malt H22: Waters, non-alcoholic flavoured beverages H22: Grape wines (including fortified), grape must total value (including others) H22: Grape wines (including fortified), grape must H22: Ethyl alcohol, undenatured and > %, /denatured H22: Waters, non-alcoholic flavoured beverages H22: Liqueur, spirits & undenatured ethyl alcohol <% H22: Beer made from malt total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H22: Grape wines (including fortified), grape must Canada 20: Semester H22: Waters, non-alcoholic flavoured beverages 7.7 H22: Fermented beverages (eg cider, perry, mead) 67.7 H22: Beer made from malt Netherlands France Argentina H22: Ethyl alcohol, undenatured and > %, /denatured 52.3 H22: Liqueur, spirits & undenatured ethyl alcohol <% Austria Sweden H22: Vermouth and other flavoured grape wine 0.68 H220: Unsweetened beverage waters, ice and snow Angola Netherlands H: Malt Denmark 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% 25% 30% Page 2

22 -- Tobacco Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % 53.6% Employment (y/y) (R) (R) index (%) 95 capacity Number ( 000) 200 *Included in Other manufacturing 85 *Included in Other manufacturing : Semester H24: Tobacco, tobacco substitute products nes H24: Cigars, cigarettes etc, tobacco/tobacco substitute total value (including others) H24: Tobacco, tobacco substitute products nes H24: Cigars, cigarettes etc, tobacco/tobacco substitute total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H24: Tobacco, tobacco substitute products nes France 20: Semester H24: Cigars, cigarettes etc, tobacco/tobacco substitute 44.5 Portugal Zimbabwe Switzerland Yemen Egypt Iran Angola Mali UAE Saudi Arabia 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% 25% 30% 35% Page 22

23 .6 Textiles Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -7.2 (Percentage points) -6.9% -5.9%.7% Employment (y/y) (R) (R) index (%) 5 Volume of production capacity 86 Number ( 000) : Semester H54: Woven synth filament yarn, monofilament >67dtex H63: Bed, table, toilet and kitchen linens H59: Special textile products for technical purposes H5: Woven pile,chenille fabric,not terry towel,w>30cm H56: Nonwoven textiles except felt total value (including others) H5: Wool and animal hair, carded or combed H63: Sacks & bags of a kind used for packing of goods H56: Nonwoven textiles except felt H63: Textile tarpaulin, sail, awning, tent, camping goods H57: Carpets, tufted total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H63: Sacks & bags of a kind used for packing of goods H56: Nonwoven textiles except felt 3.23 H630: Blankets and travelling rugs 8.9 H63: Curtains, drapes, interior blinds, valances 4.57 H88: Parachutes, parts and accessories thereof 4.47 H57: Carpets, woven, not tufted, flocked 3.32 H5: Yarn of fine animal hair, not retail 2.26 H63: Bed, table, toilet and kitchen linens.86 H5: Wool grease & fatty derivatives (including lanolin).59 H53: Flax yarn.0 Pakistan India Taiwan Turkey Italy Mozambique Belgium 20: Semester 0% 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% Page 23

24 2.3 Wearing apparel Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -2.9 (Percentage points) -5.0% -5.0% 8.7% Employment (y/y) (R) (R) index (%) 5 94 Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester H60: Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, etc, knit or crochet H62: Mens' or boys' suits, jackets, trousers etc not knit H62: Woven female suits, jackets, dresses, etc H6: T-shirts, singlets and other vests, knit or crochet H62: Mens' or boys' shirts total value (including others) H62: Mens' or boys' suits, jackets, trousers etc not knit H6: T-shirts, singlets and other vests, knit or crochet H65: Panty-hose, tights, hosiery nes, knit or crochet H62: Track suits, ski suits & swimwear, other garments H6: Mens', boys' suits, jackets, trousers etc total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H62: Mens' or boys' shirts 4.43 H6: Mens', boys' suits, jackets, trousers etc 4.25 H64: Garments, knit or crochet, nes 2.94 H60: Knit or crochet fabric.47 H65: Hats, plaited, made by combining strips of material.20 H62: Women & girls underwear, nightwear, not knit,etc.7 H62: Babies garments and clothing accessories.5 H624: Shawls, scarves, mufflers, mantillas, veils etc.4 H62: Womens' or girls' blouses, shirts and shirt-blouses. H62: Woven female overcoats, capes, windjackets etc 0.83 Mauritius Bangladesh India Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Zambia Angola Mozambiq UAE DRC 20: Semester 0% 20% 40% 60% % Page 24

25 0.6 Leather and leather products Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -9.8 (Percentage points) -0.4% -44.7% -5.8% Employment (y/y) (R) (R) index (%) 5 95 Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester H42: Trunks, suitcases, camera cases, handbags, etc H4: Leather of other animals, no hair, not chamois, etc H4: Bovine/equine leather, no hair, not chamois, patent H43: Composition leather, in slabs, sheets or strips H420: Saddlery and harness, of any material total value (including others) H4: Bovine/equine leather, no hair, not chamois, patent H4: Leather of other animals, no hair, not chamois, etc H42: Trunks, suitcases, camera cases, handbags, etc H420: Saddlery and harness, of any material H42: Articles of leather and composition leather, nes total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H4: Leather of other animals, no hair, not chamois, etc 3.46 H45: Composition leather, in slabs, sheets or strips 0.33 H4: Raw skins of sheep or lambs 0. H93: Watch straps, bands, bracelets, & parts thereof 0. H4: Patent leather, metallised leather 0.00 H42: Leather, composition leather articles, technical use 0.00 H4: Chamois leather (including combination chamois) 0.00 H4: Composition leather, in slabs, sheets or strips 0.00 H42: Composition leather, in slabs, sheets or strips -0. H4: Sheep or lamb skin leather, without wool on -0.7 India Brazil Uruguay Pakistan Italy Italy Hong Kong Czech Republic Bulgaria 20: Semester 0% 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Page 25

26 0.4 Footwear Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, 20-4.%. (Percentage points) -5.6% 3.4% 24.% Employment (y/y) (R) (R) index (%) 5 95 Volume of production capacity 3 93 Number ( 000) : Semester H64: Footwear, with outer sole, upper rubber or plastic H64: Footwear with uppers of leather H64: Footwear with uppers of textile materials H64: Parts of footwear, insoles, heel cushions, etc H64: Footwear nes, sole not leather, rubber or plastic total value (including others) H64: Footwear with uppers of leather H640: Waterproof footwear, rubber, plastic H64: Footwear, with outer sole, upper rubber or plastic H64: Footwear nes, sole not leather, rubber or plastic H64: Footwear with uppers of textile materials total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H64: Footwear with uppers of textile materials 3.24 Vietnam 20: Semester H64: Footwear, with outer sole, upper rubber or plastic 3.00 H64: Footwear nes, sole not leather, rubber or plastic.54 H64: Footwear with uppers of leather. Italy Indonesia India Brazil H64: Parts of footwear, insoles, heel cushions, etc 0.79 H640: Waterproof footwear, rubber, plastic -0. Thailand Zimbabwe Zambia Malawi Mozambique Angola DRC 0% 20% 40% 60% % Page 26

27 2.0 Wood and wood products Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -5.4 (Percentage points) -5.3% -5.9% -8.2% Employment (y/y) (R) (R) index (%) 0 94 Number ( 000) Volume of production capacity : Semester H44: Wood sawn, chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled H446: Wooden casks, barrels, vats, tubs, etc H44: Fibreboard of wood or other ligneous materials H442: Plywood, veneered panels, etc H44: Veneers and sheets for plywood etc <6mm thick total value (including others) H440: Fuel wood, wood in chips/particles, wood waste H448: Builders joinery and carpentry, of wood H44: Wood charcoal (including shell or nut charcoal) H440: Particle board, wood, ligneous material H44: Fibreboard of wood or other ligneous materials total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H440: Particle board, wood, ligneous material H44: Wood charcoal (including shell or nut charcoal) 2.88 H460: Mats, screens, articles nes of plaiting materials 3.56 H442: Articles of wood, nes 3.2 H446: Wooden casks, barrels, vats, tubs, etc 2.5 H44: Fibreboard of wood or other ligneous materials 2.0 H444: Wooden frames for paintings, photographs, etc 0.58 H447: Tools, broom handles, bodies, etc, of wood 0.42 H449: Tableware and kitchenware of wood 0.20 H443: Densified wood, in blocks, plates, strips or profile 0.9 Malaysia France Indonesia Brazil Portugal Japan Mozambique Australia Zimbabwe Zambia India 20: Semester 0% 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Page 27

28 3.8 Paper and paper products Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -3.8 (Percentage points) 4.7% 4.5% -6.8% Employment (y/y) (R) (R) index (%) Number ( 000) Volume of production capacity : Semester H4: Paper, board, inorganic coated at least one side H488: H/hold, sanitary, hospital paper articles, clothing H48: Paper, board, etc coated, impregnated, coloured H42: Uncoated paper for writing, printing machines H48: Uncoated kraft paper and paperboard total value (including others) H47: Chemical wood pulp, dissolving grades H42: Uncoated paper for writing, printing machines H48: Uncoated kraft paper and paperboard H47: Chemical wood pulp, soda/sulphate, undissolving H489: Paper, board containers, packing items, box files total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H48: Uncoated kraft paper and paperboard H47: Chemical wood pulp, soda/sulphate, undissolving H482: Paper/paperboard labels including printed labels H4: Newsprint H48: Paper, board, etc coated, impregnated, coloured 23. H488: H/hold, sanitary, hospital paper articles, clothing 6.36 H48: Uncoated paper and paperboard nes 5.22 H4: Paper, board, inorganic coated at least one side 4.36 H483: Cigarette paper.62 H48: Paper, household, sanitary, width > 36 cm 6.26 Finland Sweden France Indonesia Indonesia Spain Nigeria Kenya 20: Semester 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% Page 28

29 4.4 Printing, publishing and recorded media Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -. (Percentage points) -2.5%.% 0.6% Employment (y/y) (R) (R) index (%) 0 88 Number ( 000) Volume of production capacity : Semester H4: Printed reading books, brochures, leaflets, etc H49: Printed matter, catalogues, pictures and photos H42: Newspapers, journals and periodicals H4820: Office books, forms, exercise books, folders, etc H8442: Machinery or equipment for print preparation total value (including others) H4: Printed reading books, brochures, leaflets, etc H4820: Office books, forms, exercise books, folders, etc H49: Printed matter, catalogues, pictures and photos H42: Newspapers, journals and periodicals H49: Printed maps, charts and atlases total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H4820: Office books, forms, exercise books, folders, etc : Semester H4: Printed reading books, brochures, leaflets, etc 5.7 H49: Childrens' picture, drawing or colouring books 0.0 H8524: Sound recordings besides photographic equipmt 0.00 Switzerland Singapore H49: Music, printed or in manuscript -0. H8442: Machinery or equipment for print preparation -0. Sweden Zimbabwe Mozambique H49: Printed maps, charts and atlases H42: Newspapers, journals and periodicals -.77 Zambia Angola H49: Printed matter, catalogues, pictures and photos Malawi DRC 0% 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% Page 29

30 8.5 Coke and refined petroleum products Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -2.2 (Percentage points) 20.0% 0.6% -33.% Employment (y/y) (R) (R) index (%) 2 92 Number ( 000) Volume of production capacity : Semester H270: Petroleum oils, bituminous, distillates, except crude H273: Petroleum coke, bitumen & other oil millieu residues H272: Petroleum jelly and wax, other mineral waxes H27: Retort carbon, coke/semi-coke of coal, lignite, peat H2844: Radioactive elements, isotopes, compounds etc total value (including others) H270: Petroleum oils, bituminous, distillates, except crude H272: Petroleum jelly and wax, other mineral waxes H2844: Radioactive elements, isotopes, compounds etc H273: Petroleum coke, bitumen & other oil millieu residues H27: Petroleum gases & other gaseous hydrocarbons total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H270: Petroleum oils, bituminous, distillates, except crude.5 Netherlands India 20: Semester H272: Petroleum jelly and wax, other mineral waxes 0.40 H273: Petroleum coke, bitumen & other oil millieu residues 8.57 H840: Nuclear reactors, fuel elements,etc -0.5 UAE Singapore Turkey H27: Tar from coal, lignite or peat, other mineral tars H27: Petroleum gases & other gaseous hydrocarbons Saudi Arabia Zimbabwe Zambia H27: Retort carbon, coke/semi-coke of coal, lignite, peat H2844: Radioactive elements, isotopes, compounds etc Mozambique DRC Angola 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0% 2% Page 30

31 4.5 Basic chemicals Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -6.6 (Percentage points) -0.2% -27.8% -34.% Employment (y/y) (R) (R) index (%) 92 Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester H3: Polymers of ethylene, in primary forms H37: Polyacetals, polyethers, etc, primary H3: Mineral or chemical fertilizers, nitrogenous H39: Polymers of styrene, in primary forms H2934: Heterocyclic compounds, nes total value (including others) H28: Diphosphorus pentaoxide, phosphoric acids H2: Acyclic hydrocarbons H32: Polymers of propylene, olefins in primary forms H294: Ketones and quinones, their derivatives H29: Acyclic alcohols and their derivatives total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H3: Polymers of ethylene, in primary forms H39: Polymers of vinyl chloride, halogenated olefins 2.22 H3: Mineral or chemical fertilizers, potassic. H2849: Carbides, whether or not chemically defined H32: Colouring matter nes, inorganic luminophores H2842: Salts of inorganic acids and peroxoacids H2832: Sulphites, thiosulphates 24. H2928: Organic derivatives of hydrazine/hydroxylamine 7.77 H3: Mineral or chemical fertilizers, phosphatic 7.20 H2827: Chlorides, bromides, iodides, oxides thereof 3.43 Belgium Saudi Arabia India Netherlands India Belgium Zambia Brazil Netherlands 20: Semester 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% Page 3

32 5.3 Other chemicals and man-made fibres Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -2.8 (Percentage points) -0.4% Employment (y/y).7% 2.8% (R) (R) index (%) Number ( 000) Volume of production capacity : Semester H30: Medicaments, therapeutic, prophylactic use H8523: Prepared unrecorded sound recording media H30: Blood, antisera, vaccines, toxins and cultures H38: Insecticides, fungicides, herbicides etc (retail) H3822: Composite diagnostic or laboratory reagents total value (including others) H30: Medicaments, therapeutic, prophylactic use H38: Insecticides, fungicides, herbicides etc (retail) H33: Beauty, make-up and skin care preparations H3822: Composite diagnostic or laboratory reagents H340: Soaps total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H38: Insecticides, fungicides, herbicides etc (retail) H30: Medicaments, therapeutic, prophylactic use H32: Polymer based paints, aqueous varnishes H34: Organic surface active agents, excluding soap 73.8 H340: Soaps H33: Shaving and toilet preparations nes, deodorizers 29.6 H36: Safety or detonating fuses, detonators, igniters H33: Hair preparations 8.8 H33: Beauty, make-up and skin care preparations 7.64 H34: Polishes, creams, scouring pastes, etc 7.44 France India Switzerland Zambia Zimbabwe Mozambique Angola Kenya 20: Semester 0% 5% 0% 5% Page 32

33 .0 Rubber products Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -5.9 (Percentage points) 0.7% -.4% -0.3% Employment (y/y) (R) (R) index (%) 50 Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester H40: New pneumatic tyres, of rubber H4: Articles of vulcanised rubber except hard rubber H400: Conveyor and similar belts or belting of rubber H40: Rubber tube, pipe, hose, except hard rubber H4: Hygienic or pharmaceutical articles of rubber total value (including others) H40: New pneumatic tyres, of rubber H400: Conveyor and similar belts or belting of rubber H4: Articles of vulcanised rubber except hard rubber H40: Rubber tube, pipe, hose, except hard rubber H40: Rubber plate, sheet, strip, etc, except hard rubber total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H400: Conveyor and similar belts or belting of rubber 35. H56: Rubberised textile fabric, except tyre cord 4.68 H4: Rubber clothing & accessories, but hard rubber 4. H40: Unvulcanised rubber as rods, tubes, discs, etc 0.62 H4: Hard rubber in all forms, articles, scrap 0.60 H4: Hygienic or pharmaceutical articles of rubber 0.5 H4: Tyres nes, retreaded, etc, solid, cushioned 0.50 H4: Inner tubes of rubber -0.2 H40: Reclaimed rubber in primary forms or in sheets -0.7 H40: Compounded unvulcanised rubber in primary form -0.5 Japan Spain France India Zimbabwe Zambia Netherlands Mozambique Australia 20: Semester 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% Page 33

34 2.7 Plastic products Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % 0.8 (Percentage points) -5.9% Employment (y/y) 7.7% -7.6% (R) (R) index (%) Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester H3920: Plastic plate, sheet, film not cellular, reinforced H3926: Plastic articles nes H3923: Containers, bobbins and packages, of plastics H399: Self-adhesive plates, sheets, film etc of plastic H397: Plastic tube, pipe, hose and fittings total value (including others) H3923: Containers, bobbins and packages, of plastics H3926: Plastic articles nes H397: Plastic tube, pipe, hose and fittings H3920: Plastic plate, sheet, film not cellular, reinforced H3922: Bathroom wares, of plastics total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H3923: Containers, bobbins and packages, of plastics H3926: Plastic articles nes H3924: Plastic table, kitchen, household, toilet articles 37.6 H8547: Insulating fittings for electrical equipment 0.54 H94: Lamps and light fittings, illuminated signs, etc 0.54 H398: Plastic floor, wall or ceiling covering, roll or tiles 0.5 H396: Monofilament (>mm), rods, etc, of plastics -0.8 H397: Plastic tube, pipe, hose and fittings -5.9 H399: Self-adhesive plates, sheets, film etc of plastic -7.4 H3920: Plastic plate, sheet, film not cellular, reinforced -. Italy France India Mozambique Zimbabwe Zambia DRC Angola 20: Semester 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% 25% Page 34

35 .0 Glass and glass products Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, 20.% -5.3 (Percentage points) -6.2% Employment (y/y) 83.7% -2.% (R) (R) index (%) Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester H7: Glassware for table, kitchen, toilet, decoration H70: Safety glass (toughened, tempered, laminated) H700: Glass bottles, flasks, jars, phials, stoppers, etc H7: Glass fibres, glass wool and articles thereof H8546: Electrical insulators of any material total value (including others) H70: Safety glass (toughened, tempered, laminated) H7: Glass fibres, glass wool and articles thereof H700: Glass bottles, flasks, jars, phials, stoppers, etc H70: Float glass, surface ground, polished glass H70: Cast and rolled glass, sheets and profiles total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H7: Glass fibres, glass wool and articles thereof H70: Safety glass (toughened, tempered, laminated) H700: Glass bottles, flasks, jars, phials, stoppers, etc H70: Float glass, surface ground, polished glass 2.4 H7: Glass blocks, bricks, tiles, leaded lights, etc H7: Glassware for table, kitchen, toilet, decoration.70 H7: Laboratory, hygienic/pharmaceutical glassware.2 H70: Glass envelopes for electrical/electronic lamps etc 0.73 H7: Unworked glasses for spectacles, clocks, etc 0.70 H70: Cast, drawn/float glass sheet, edge worked/bent 0.63 Italy France Brazil UAE Angola Mozambique Belgium Zambia France 20: Semester 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% 25% 30% 35% Page 35

36 3.8 Non-metallic mineral products Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -4.0 (Percentage points) -7.7% Employment (y/y) -9.3% -35.5% (R) (R) index (%) 5 Number ( 000) Volume of production capacity : Semester H69: Ceramic laboratory, technical, packaging articles H62: Refractory brick,block, tile etc not siliceous-earths H69: Glazed ceramic flags and paving, hearth, wall tiles H62: Worked monumental, building stone H685: Articles of stone or other mineral substances total value (including others) H2522: Quicklime, slaked, hydraulic lime for construction H2523: Cement (portland, aluminous, slag or hydraulic) H68: Millstones, grinding stones and grinding wheels H62: Worked monumental, building stone H69: Glazed ceramic flags and paving, hearth, wall tiles total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H2522: Quicklime, slaked, hydraulic lime for construction H69: Ceramic laboratory, technical, packaging articles.87 H69: Glazed ceramic flags and paving, hearth, wall tiles.74 H6: Ceramic bathroom and other sanitary fixtures 8.49 H275: Bituminous mix, mastic from asphalt, bitumen etc 3.0 H69: Ceramic roofing tiles, chimney pots, etc 2. H69: Porcelain table, kitchen, household, toilet items.75 H68: Asphalt, bitumen, coal tar pitch, etc articles.54 H2520: Gypsum, anhydride, gypsum plaster.24 H69: Ceramic building bricks, flooring blocks and tiles 0.76 France Japan Italy Poland DRC Zambia Zimbabwe Mozambique Angola Ireland 20: Semester 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% 25% Page 36

37 7.7 Basic iron and steel products Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -2.8 (Percentage points) 4.% Employment (y/y) -47.% -0.4% (R) (R) index (%) Number ( 000) Volume of production capacity : Semester H7225: Flat-rolled alloy steel, width >600mm H72: Hot-rolled products, iron/steel, width >600mm, etc H720: Flat-rolled iron/steel, >600mm, clad, plated/coated H73: Pipe fittings, of iron or steel H73: Tube/hollow profile, seamless iron/steel not cast total value (including others) H72: Ferro-alloys H729: Rolled stainless steel sheet, width >600mm H72: Hot-rolled products, iron/steel, width >600mm, etc H72: Semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel H72: Granules and powders, of pig iron, iron or steel total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H72: Semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel 8.0 H72: Granules and powders, of pig iron, iron or steel 693. H72: Hot-rolled products, iron/steel, width >600mm, etc H723: Hot rolled bar, rod of iron/steel, in irregular coils H73: Pipe fittings, of iron or steel H7222: Bar, rod, stainless steel, angles, shapes/sections 2.64 H724: Iron/steel bar, forged hot-rolled drawn, extruded 7. H726: Angles, shapes & sections of iron/non-alloy steel 6.75 H73: Pipe, welded iron/steel, diameter >4.4mm.47 H7227: Bar, rod, hot-rolled alloy steel, irregular coils 0.78 Austria Sweden Japan France Taiwan India Netherlands Japan 20: Semester 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% 25% 30% 35% Page 37

38 3.4 Basic non-ferrous metal products Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -9.2 (Percentage points) -6.9% Employment (y/y) -8.9% -57.0% (R) (R) index (%) 2 96 Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester H288: Aluminium oxide, hydroxide & artificial corundum H75: Unwrought nickel H74: Copper wire H7: Unwrought lead H76: Aluminium plates and sheets, thickness >0.2 mm total value (including others) H760: Unwrought aluminium H76: Aluminium plates and sheets, thickness >0.2 mm H75: Nickel plates, sheets, strip and foil H8: Manganese, articles thereof, waste or scrap H74: Refined copper and copper alloys, unwrought total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H750: Nickel matte, interim products of nickel metallurgy H7: Silver, unwrought or semi-manufactured, etc 9.5 H74: Unrefined copper, copper anodes, etc. H76: Aluminium tube or pipe fittings 9.87 H7: Unwrought zinc 8.78 H79: Zinc bars, rods, profiles and wire 8.53 H7: Unwrought lead 6. H0: Unwrought tin 0.59 H740: Copper mattes/cement (precipitated copper) 0. H8: Zirconium, articles thereof, waste or scrap 0.0 Australia Zambia Zimbabwe Japan Switzerland Hong Kong 20: Semester 0% 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% Page 38

39 5.8 Metal products excluding machinery Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -7.8 (Percentage points) -5.5% Employment (y/y) -4.8% -6.8% (R) (R) index (%) 30 Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester H738: Screws, bolts, nuts, rivets, etc, iron or steel H7326: Articles of iron or steel nes H840: Nuclear reactors, fuel elements,etc H82: Interchangeable tools & dies for hand/power tools H73: Structures, parts of structures of iron or steel total value (including others) H73: Structures, parts of structures of iron or steel H730: Tank, box, container, iron/steel, capacity <300l H7326: Articles of iron or steel nes H82: Interchangeable tools & dies for hand/power tools H732: Stranded steel wire,etc, without electric insulation total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H730: Tank, box, container, iron/steel, capacity <300l 7.36 H7326: Articles of iron or steel nes H732: Stranded steel wire,etc, without electric insulation 26.3 H733: Wire for fencing, including barbed wire 9.2 H73: Reservoirs, tanks, vats,etc, iron/ steel cap >300l 5.37 H749: Articles of copper nes 4.48 H84: Steam/vapour generating boiler 2.77 H73: Containers for compressed gas (iron/steel) 9.37 H83: Clasp, buckle, eye, etc for clothing, footwear, etc 6.82 H83: Flexible tubing of base metal 6.78 France Italy India Taiwan Zimbabwe Angola Zambia Mozambique Ghana DRC Nigeria 20: Semester 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% 25% 30% Page 39

40 6. Machinery and equipment Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -2.9 (Percentage points) 0.5% Employment (y/y) -4.8% -7.5% (R) (R) index (%) 0 9 Number ( 000) Volume of production capacity : Semester H847: Automatic data processing machines (computers) H8443: Printing and ancillary machinery H8429: Self-propelled earth moving, road making machines H843: Parts for use with lifting, moving machinery H8473: Parts, except covers, for office machines total value (including others) H842: Liquid, gas centrifuges, purifying machines H8474: Machinery to sort, screen, etc mineral products H843: Parts for use with lifting, moving machinery H843: Pumps for liquids H8429: Self-propelled earth moving, road making machines total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H848: Taps, cocks, valves for pipes, tanks, boilers, etc H8438: Industrial food and drink preparation machinery 47. H8482: Ball or roller bearings 46.5 H8437: Machines to clean, sort or mill seed, grain, etc H8424: Equipment to project, disperse liquid or powder H8477: Machinery for rubber, plastics industry 32.9 H8473: Parts, except covers, for office machines H843: Parts for use with lifting, moving machinery H8433: Harvesting, produce cleaning & grading machinery 8.3 H8422: Machinery for dish washing, bottle washing, filling 7. Italy Japan France Zambia Spain Mozambique Zimbabwe 20: Semester 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% Page 40

41 2.5 Electrical machinery and apparatus Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, %.8 (Percentage points).4% Employment (y/y) -4.4% -5.7% (R) (R) index (%) 35 Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester H85: Elec transformers, static converters & rectifiers H85: Electric generating sets and rotary converters H8536: Electrical switches, connectors, etc, for < kv H850: Electric motors and generators H8544: Insulated wire and cable, optical fibre cable total value (including others) H8544: Insulated wire and cable, optical fibre cable H85: Elec transformers, static converters & rectifiers H8536: Electrical switches, connectors, etc, for < kv H850: Electric motors and generators H8537: Electrical power, etc, control & distribution boards total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H85: Elec transformers, static converters & rectifiers 9.6 H850: Electric motors and generators H8547: Insulating fittings for electrical equipment H8537: Electrical power, etc, control & distribution boards H8536: Electrical switches, connectors, etc, for < kv 6.99 H85: Electro & equipment using magnets 4.0 H94: Lamps and light fittings, illuminated signs, etc 3.77 H8539: Electric filament, discharge lamps 5. H85: Parts for electric motors and generators 4. H85: Electric generating sets and rotary converters 2.47 Japan France Italy Mozambique Zambia Zimbabwe DRC Nigeria 20: Semester 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% Page 4

42 0.4 TV, radio and communication equipment Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -0.5 (Percentage points) -6.8% Employment (y/y) -8.4% -7.7% (R) (R) index (%) Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester H857: Electric apparatus for line telephony, telegraphy H8528: Television receivers, video monitors, projectors H8525: Radio and TV transmitters, television cameras H8529: Parts for radio, TV transmission equipment H854: Diodes, transistors, semi-conductors, etc total value (including others) H854: Diodes, transistors, semi-conductors, etc H8525: Radio and TV transmitters, television cameras H857: Electric apparatus for line telephony, telegraphy H8529: Parts for radio, TV transmission equipment H8528: Television receivers, video monitors, projectors total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H8525: Radio and TV transmitters, television cameras 7.82 H8527: Radio, radio-telephony receivers H858: Audio-electronic equipment non-recording devices 8.63 H8532: Electrical capacitors, fixed, variable or adjustable 2.57 H859: Non-recording sound reproducing equipment 2.24 H8534: Electronic printed circuits 2.22 H8533: Electrical resistors & rheostats except for heating.39 H8540: Thermionic and cold cathode valves and tubes.7 H8520: Electronic sound recording equipment 0.00 H8522: Accessories of audio, video recording equipment -.64 Republic of Korea Taiwan Malaysia Thailand France UAE Mozambique Algeria Guadeloupe Réunion Saudi Arabia 20: Semester 0% 0% 20% 30% 40% Page 42

43 0.7 Professional and scientific equipment Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -6.6 (Percentage points) 0.7% Employment (y/y) 20.8% -7.7% (R) (R) index (%) 5 93 Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester H9: Instruments etc for medical, surgical & dental use H2: Orthopaedic appliances H27: Equipment for physical and chemical analysis H92: Automatic regulating or controlling equipment H9: Measuring or checking instruments nes total value (including others) H9: Instruments etc for medical, surgical & dental use H9: Measuring or checking instruments nes H28: Gas, liquid/electricity supply or production meters H: Instruments to check/measure electricity, radiation H8526: Radar, radio navigation & remote control apparatus total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H9: Instruments etc for medical, surgical & dental use H9: Navigational instruments, direction finding compass H: Instruments to check/measure electricity, radiation H9: Survey, oceanographic, etc instruments 4.3 H9: Measuring or checking instruments nes H94: Medical, dental, surgical, veterinary furniture, etc 2.92 H26: Equipment to measure pressure of fluidflour.55 H92: Automatic regulating or controlling equipment.27 H849: Machinery, non-domestic, for heating or cooling 6.73 H9: Therapeutic appliances, nes 4.56 Switzerland France Japan Mozambique Sudan Tanzania Nigeria Sweden 20: Semester 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% 25% 30% 35% Page 43

44 0. Motor vehicles,parts and accessories Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -5.6 (Percentage points) -0.8% Employment (y/y) -29.7% -36.5% (R) (R) index (%) Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester H9: Original equipment components H87: Vehicles for transport of persons (except buses) H87: Parts and accessories for motor vehicles H87: Motor vehicles for the transport of goods H87: Public transport type passenger motor vehicles total value (including others) H87: Vehicles for transport of persons (except buses) H87: Motor vehicles for the transport of goods H87: Parts and accessories for motor vehicles H84: Parts for internal combustion spark-ignition engines H86: Cargo containers designed for carriage of goods total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H876: Trailers and non-mechanically propelled vehicles 29.8 H87: Special purpose motor vehicles 84.7 H84: Parts for internal combustion spark-ignition engines H9: Original equipment components 3. H8727: Other parts for carriages, carts, coaches, etc 0.00 H845: Air conditioning equipment, machinery -5.0 H87: Motor vehicle chassis fitted with engines H87: Bodies (including cabs), for motor vehicles H86: Cargo containers designed for carriage of goods H87: Public transport type passenger motor vehicles Japan Thailand Brazil Republic of Korea Australia Nigeria Japan Poland 20: Semester 0% 0% 20% 30% 40% Page 44

45 0.9 Other transport equipment Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -2.9 (Percentage points) 2.9% Employment (y/y) -34.% -26.4% (R) (R) index (%) Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester H82: Aircraft, spacecraft, satellites H88: Parts of aircraft, spacecraft, etc H84: Turbo-jets/propellers/other gas turbine engines H84: Spark-ignition internal combustion engines H86: Parts of railway, tramway locomotives,etc total value (including others) H88: Parts of aircraft, spacecraft, etc H89: Yachts, pleasure, sports vessels, boats, canoes H84: Spark-ignition internal combustion engines H86: Parts of railway, tramway locomotives,etc H87: Motorcycles, bicycles etc with auxiliary motor total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H84: Spark-ignition internal combustion engines H87: Motorcycles, bicycles etc with auxiliary motor H88: Aircraft launching gear, flight simulators H876: Trailers and non-mechanically propelled vehicles 7.98 H86: Signals etc for rail, tram, waterway, port, airfield 9.64 H860: Rail locomotives, electrically powered 4.34 H84: Parts for internal combustion spark-ignition engines 2.37 H874: Parts & accessories of bicycles, motorcycles, etc 2. H8: Balloons, dirigibles, gliders, non-powered aircraft 0.44 H89: Vessels and other floating structures for breaking up 0.33 Sweden France South Africa Canada Italy Israel Angola France 20: Semester 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% 25% 30% Page 45

46 .3 Furniture Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, 20-4.% 0.8 (Percentage points) -.9% Employment (y/y) -30.6% -24.0% (R) (R) index (%) 0 96 Number ( 000) Volume of production capacity : Semester H940: Seats (except dentist, barber, etc chairs) H94: Other furniture and parts thereof H94: Mattress supports, mattresses, bedding total value (including others) H940: Seats (except dentist, barber, etc chairs) H94: Other furniture and parts thereof H94: Mattress supports, mattresses, bedding total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H94: Other furniture and parts thereof : Semester H94: Mattress supports, mattresses, bedding H940: Seats (except dentist, barber, etc chairs) Italy Malaysia Hungary Indonesia Thailand Mozambique Zambia Spain Canada 0% 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Page 46

47 3.9 Other manufacturing Trend analysis: Semester, 20 compared to Semester, % -.6 (Percentage points) -2.% Employment (y/y).3% -0.4% (R) (R) index (%) Volume of production capacity Number ( 000) : Semester H95: Equipment for gymnastics, sports, outdoor games nes H95: Other toys, scale models, puzzles, etc H95: Articles for funfairs, table and parlour games H: Guts, bladders & stomachs of animals except fish H269: Waste, scale, dross, slag of iron or steel industry total value (including others) H78: Coin H72: Ferrous waste or scrap, ingots or iron or steel H72: Waste or scrap of precious metal H74: Copper, copper alloy, waste or scrap H73: Jewellery and parts, containing precious metal total value (including others) (20: Semester compared to 20: Semester ) H78: Coin H72: Waste or scrap of precious metal.84 H440: Fuel wood, wood in chips/particles, wood waste 30.8 H: Ivory,whalebone etc, unworked, etc H95: Articles for funfairs, table and parlour games H34: Candles, tapers and the like 3.00 H96: Pens (writing), mechanical pencils, parts 6.3 H97: Original engravings, prints and lithographs 4.99 H96: Brooms, brushes, mops, feather dusters, etc 4.44 H36: Matches 4. India Russian Federation Italy Switzerland Hong Kong Belgium Republic of Korea 20: Semester 0% 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% Page 47

48 Acronyms and data sources Acronyms: BRICs Brazil, Russia, India and EU (25) European Union member states are: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Czech Republic,, Denmark, Estonia, Spain, Finland, France, United Kingdom, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, Malta, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Slovenia and Slovakia. GDP Gross domestic product. HS Codes Harmonized System codes. LDC Least developed country. MERCOSUR/L Mercado Común del Sur (in Spanish) or Mercado Comum do Sul (in Portuguese) members are: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement members are: Canada, Mexico and the United States of America. nes Not elsewhere specified. SA Republic of South Africa. SACU Southern African Customs Union members are: Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland. SADC Southern African Development Community members are: Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. / US United States of America. United Kingdom y/y Year-on-year growth rate q/q Quarter-on-quarter growth rate. Data sources: South African Revenue Services South African trade data. International Trade Centre (ITC) Trade data on BRICs and Africa. Quantec Research South African employment data. StatsSA South African production and capacity utilization data. Page 48

49 Compiled by: The Department of Research and Information Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa Limited PO Box 7845, Sandton, 246, Gauteng, South Africa For further assistance or information contact: The Department of Research and Information Tel : (Dianne Rymer) E mail : dianner@idc.co.za IDC Head Office: 9 Fredman Drive, Sandown, 296 PO Box 7845, Sandton, 246, South Africa Telephone: , Fax: Call Centre: callcentre@idc.co.za, Website: Although every care is taken to ensure the accuracy of this publication, supplements, updates and replacement material, the authors, editors, publishers and printers do not accept responsibility for any act, omission, loss, damage or the consequences thereof occasioned by a reliance by any person upon the contents hereof. Page 49