OPPORTUNITY THE URBAN C H R I S B U S C H N O R T H E R C A L I F O R N I A C O R P O R AT E R E A L E S TAT E F O R U M

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1 THE URBAN OPPORTUNITY C H R I S B U S C H N O R T H E R C A L I F O R N I A C O R P O R AT E R E A L E S TAT E F O R U M S E P T E M B E R 2 2,

2 ROADMAP 1. Summary Insights 2. Trend analysis 3. How 12 Guidelines 4. Acknowledge the challenges 5. By the numbers Benefits quantified 2

3 SUMMARY INSIGHTS 1. Location efficiency is crucial for sustainable urbanization. 2. Trends are heading in the right direction. 3. Smart growth will Directly support the success of your companies. Produce stronger overall economic growth as part of triple bottom line benefits 3

4 ROADMAP 1. Summary Insights 2. Trend analysis Changing preferences People increasingly want it Economic The market is rewarding it Policy Government leaders are demanding it 3. How 12 Guidelines 4. By the numbers Benefits quantified 5. Acknowledge the challenges 4

5 MILLENNIALS ARE DIFFERENT A N D A R E T H E L A R G E S T PA R T O F T H E W O R K F O R C E Evidence of changing mobility and neighborhood preferences. 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 51% 55% 43% 69% 38% 75% 0% MILLENIAL GEN X BABY BOOM Preference for walkable neighorhoods Driver's licence within one year of eligibility Sources: (driver s license data, from UC Davis survey results) 5

6 MILLENNIALS ARE DIFFERENT A N D A R E T H E L A R G E S T PA R T O F T H E W O R K F O R C E 6

7 MILLENNIALS ARE DIFFERENT A N D A R E T H E L A R G E S T PA R T O F T H E W O R K F O RCE Car ownership no longer a gateway to adulthood. 7

8 MILLENNIALS ARE DIFFERENT A N D A R E T H E L A R G E S T PA R T O F T H E W O R K F O R C E 41% of millennials use public transit, compared to: 28% Gen X 19% Boomer 8% Senior 8

9 CHANGING PREFERENCES FOR HOUSING W H E R E Y O U R E M P L O Y E E S A R E G O I N G T O B E L I V I N G CA expected demand in 2035 for residential units compared to 2010 supply Arthur Nelson The New California Dream. Urban Land Institute. 9

10 CHANGING PREFERENCES FOR HOUSING W H E R E Y O U R E M P L O Y E E S A R E G O I N G T O B E L I V I N G CA trends in Demand and Supply of Transit Station Accessible (TSA) Units 4 million unit deficit Arthur Nelson The New California Dream. Urban Land Institute. 10

11 JOBS ARE GROWING FASTEST IN CIT Y CENTERS 11

12 THE SHIFT IN INNOVATION TO CIT Y CENTERS Top 20 Metros for Venture Capital Investment (2013) +74% San Francisco metro receives 74% more venture capital investment than San Jose metro Florida, Richard, 2014, Startup City: The Urban Shift in Venture Capital and High Technology, Martin Prosperity Institute, University of Toronto (March). 12

13 CORE VALUES: WHY AMERICAN COMPANIES ARE MOVING DOWNTOWN Study surveyed 500 companies that had changed office locations Authors: Smart Growth America, Cushman & Wakefield, GWU 13 Center for Real Estate and Urban Analysis

14 POLICYMAKERS ARE DEMANDING IT Some examples: SB 375 SB 743: Changes to CEQA Surgeon General s Call to Action Building more walkable places can help combat chronic disease 14

15 ROADMAP 1. Summary Insights 2. Trend analysis 3. How 12 Guidelines 4. Acknowledge the challenges 5. By the numbers Benefits quantified 15

16 HOW: THE 12 GUIDELINES

17 THE 12 GUIDELINES URBAN FORM 1. URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY 2. TRANSIT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT 3. MIXED-USE 4. SMALL BLOCKS 5. PUBLIC GREEN SPACE TRANSPORTATION 6. NON-MOTORIZED TRANSIT 7. PUBLIC TRANSIT 8. CAR CONTROL ENERGY AND RESOURCES 9. GREEN BUILDINGS 10. RENEWABLE AND DISTRICT ENERGY 11. WASTE MANAGEMENT 12. WATER EFFICIENCY

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20 THE 12 GUIDELINES 1. URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY 2. TRANSIT- ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT 3. MIXED-USE 4. SMALL BLOCKS 5. PUBLIC GREEN SPACE 6. NON-MOTORIZED TRANSIT 7. PUBLIC TRANSIT 8. CAR CONTROL 9. GREEN BUILDINGS 10. RENEWABLE AND DISTRICT ENERGY 11. WASTE MANAGEMENT 12. WATER EFFICIENCY ATLANTA EMITS 10X MORE TRANSPORT-RELATED CARBON EMISSIONS THAN BARCELONA Source: The New Climate Economy;

21 THE 12 GUIDELINES 1. URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY 2. TRANSIT- ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT 3. MIXED-USE 4. SMALL BLOCKS 5. PUBLIC GREEN SPACE 6. NON-MOTORIZED TRANSIT 7. PUBLIC TRANSIT 8. CAR CONTROL 9. GREEN BUILDINGS 10. RENEWABLE AND DISTRICT ENERGY 11. WASTE MANAGEMENT 12. WATER EFFICIENCY HOW COPENHAGEN MATCHES DENSITY TO TRANSIT CAPACITY

22 THE 12 GUIDELINES 1. URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY 2. TRANSIT- ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT 3. MIXED-USE 4. SMALL BLOCKS 5. PUBLIC GREEN SPACE 6. NON-MOTORIZED TRANSIT 7. PUBLIC TRANSIT 8. CAR CONTROL 9. GREEN BUILDINGS 10. RENEWABLE AND DISTRICT ENERGY 11. WASTE MANAGEMENT 12. WATER EFFICIENCY MIXED-USE DEVELOPMENT APPROVED FOR 5 TH AND MISSIONS IN SAN FRANCISCO

23 THE 12 GUIDELINES 1. URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY 2. TRANSIT- ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT 3. MIXED-USE 4. SMALL BLOCKS 5. PUBLIC GREEN SPACE 6. NON-MOTORIZED TRANSIT 7. PUBLIC TRANSIT 8. CAR CONTROL 9. GREEN BUILDINGS 10. RENEWABLE AND DISTRICT ENERGY 11. WASTE MANAGEMENT 12. WATER EFFICIENCY MIXED-USE DEVELOPMENT PLANNED TO REVIVE VALCO MALL IN CUPERTINO

24 THE 12 GUIDELINES 1. URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY 2. TRANSIT- ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT 3. MIXED-USE 4. SMALL BLOCKS 5. PUBLIC GREEN SPACE 6. NON-MOTORIZED TRANSIT 7. PUBLIC TRANSIT 8. CAR CONTROL 9. GREEN BUILDINGS 10. RENEWABLE AND DISTRICT ENERGY 11. WASTE MANAGEMENT 12. WATER EFFICIENCY BLOCK SIZES IN VARIOUS CITIES AT SAME SCALE San Francisco Vancouver New York Shanghai Beijing Portland

25 THE 12 GUIDELINES 1. URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY 2. TRANSIT- ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT 3. MIXED-USE 4. SMALL BLOCKS 5. PUBLIC GREEN SPACE 6. NON-MOTORIZED TRANSIT 7. PUBLIC TRANSIT 8. CAR CONTROL 9. GREEN BUILDINGS 10. RENEWABLE AND DISTRICT ENERGY 11. WASTE MANAGEMENT 12. WATER EFFICIENCY HIGH LINE PARK, NEW YORK CITY Revitalization cost $115 million Surrounding area has seen $2 billion in private investment 8,000 construction jobs, 12,000 permanent jobs Doubling of apartment values near the park

26 THE 12 GUIDELINES 1. URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY 2. TRANSIT- ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT 3. MIXED-USE 4. SMALL BLOCKS 5. PUBLIC GREEN SPACE 6. NON-MOTORIZED TRANSIT 7. PUBLIC TRANSIT 8. CAR CONTROL 9. GREEN BUILDINGS 10. RENEWABLE AND DISTRICT ENERGY 11. WASTE MANAGEMENT 12. WATER EFFICIENCY NYC GREEN LIGHT FOR MIDTOWN PROJECT From Property values in area up 29%. Rest of NYC down 6-36% Injuries to motorists and passengers down 63% Pedestrian injuries down 35% Source:

27 THE 12 GUIDELINES 1. URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY 2. TRANSIT- ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT 3. MIXED-USE 4. SMALL BLOCKS 5. PUBLIC GREEN SPACE 6. NON-MOTORIZED TRANSIT 7. PUBLIC TRANSIT 8. CAR CONTROL 9. GREEN BUILDINGS 10. RENEWABLE AND DISTRICT ENERGY 11. WASTE MANAGEMENT 12. WATER EFFICIENCY GUANGZHOU: SAME STREET BEFORE AND AFTER BRT

28 THE 12 GUIDELINES 1. URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY 2. TRANSIT- ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT 3. MIXED-USE 4. SMALL BLOCKS 5. PUBLIC GREEN SPACE 6. NON-MOTORIZED TRANSIT 7. PUBLIC TRANSIT 8. CAR CONTROL 9. GREEN BUILDINGS 10. RENEWABLE AND DISTRICT ENERGY 11. WASTE MANAGEMENT 12. WATER EFFICIENCY LONDON CONGESTION CHARGE Reduced Congestion by 30%

29 THE 12 GUIDELINES 1. URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY 2. TRANSIT- ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT 3. MIXED-USE 4. SMALL BLOCKS 5. PUBLIC GREEN SPACE 6. NON-MOTORIZED TRANSIT 7. PUBLIC TRANSIT 8. CAR CONTROL 9. GREEN BUILDINGS 10. RENEWABLE AND DISTRICT ENERGY 11. WASTE MANAGEMENT 12. WATER EFFICIENCY PARKVIEW GREEN IN BEIJING

30 THE 12 GUIDELINES 1. URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY 2. TRANSIT- ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT 3. MIXED-USE 4. SMALL BLOCKS 5. PUBLIC GREEN SPACE 6. NON-MOTORIZED TRANSIT 7. PUBLIC TRANSIT 8. CAR CONTROL 9. GREEN BUILDINGS 10. RENEWABLE AND DISTRICT ENERGY 11. WASTE MANAGEMENT 12. WATER EFFICIENCY SOLAR PANELS IN VAUBAN, GERMANY

31 THE 12 GUIDELINES 1. URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY 2. TRANSIT- ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT 3. MIXED-USE 4. SMALL BLOCKS 5. PUBLIC GREEN SPACE 6. NON-MOTORIZED TRANSIT 7. PUBLIC TRANSIT 8. CAR CONTROL 9. GREEN BUILDINGS 10. RENEWABLE AND DISTRICT ENERGY 11. WASTE MANAGEMENT 12. WATER EFFICIENCY SAN FRANCISCO WASTE MANAGEMENT As of 2010, 77% of waste is re-directed away from landfill

32 THE 12 GUIDELINES 1. URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY 2. TRANSIT- ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT 3. MIXED-USE 4. SMALL BLOCKS 5. PUBLIC GREEN SPACE 6. NON-MOTORIZED TRANSIT 7. PUBLIC TRANSIT 8. CAR CONTROL 9. GREEN BUILDINGS 10. RENEWABLE AND DISTRICT ENERGY 11. WASTE MANAGEMENT 12. WATER EFFICIENCY EFFICIENT TARGETING IN WATER

33 ROADMAP 1. Summary Insights 2. Trend analysis 3. How 12 Guidelines 4. Acknowledge the challenges NIMBY-ism 5. By the numbers Benefits quantified 33

34 ROADMAP 1. Summary Insights 2. Trend analysis 3. How 12 Guidelines 4. Acknowledge the challenges 5. By the numbers Benefits quantified McKinsey analysis of eco-districts California smart growth benefits 34

35 MCKINSEY ANALYSIS OF ECO-DISTRICTS Building the Cities of the Future with Green Districts Three regions studied Similar technologies and design features to 12 Guidelines. the Yangtze Delta in China Economic and environmental benefits northern North America the Persian Gulf

36 MCKINSEY ANALYSIS OF ECO-DISTRICTS Strong economic performance: Breakeven rate: 3 5 years Internal rate of return: percent Construction costs: + $1,000 to $4,000 per resident Annual savings: $250 to $1,200 per person

37 MCKINSEY ANALYSIS OF ECO-DISTRICTS Multi-faceted environmental benefits: 30 to 50% lower air emissions Private vehicle travel reduced 50-80% 20 to 40% lower energy consumption 60 to 65% less water consumption 25% less solid waste to landfill

38 CLOSER TO HOME Quantification of benefits in California

39 CLOSER TO HOME Quantification of benefits in California million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent reduced, given current policy

40 CLOSER TO HOME Quantification of benefits in California Current Plans More Compact Infill Focus Economic impacts quantified (2015$) Household cost savings a Cumulative to 2030 $28.9 billion $72.1 billion $91.1 billion Annual per average household in 2030 $600 $1,600 $2,000 Avoided public health costs b Cumulative to 2030 $2.6 billion $6.4 billion $8.2 billion Annual in 2030 $321 million $853 million $1,040 million Infrastructure cost savings c Cumulative to 2030 $9.3 billion $12.4 billion $18.5 billion Environmental impacts quantified Criteria pollutant emissions avoided d Cumulative to ,000 tons 532,000 tons 686,000 tons Annual in ,000 tons 50,000 tons 61,000 tons Residential water savings e Cumulative to ,600 acre-feet 124,200 acre-feet 154,900 acre-feet Annual average per new household in ,300 gallons 21,900 gallons 27,300 gallons Land conservation f Cumulative to sq mi 490 sq mi 700 sq mi

41 @ C H R I S B B U S C E N E R G Y I N N O V L L C C H R I S B U S C H W W W. E N E R G Y I N N O V AT I O N. O R G THANK YOU HANGZHOU