100% Renewable Energy in Global-Local Resolution and Implications for CCUS

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1 100% Renewable Energy in Global-Local Resolution and Implications for CCUS Christian Breyer Professor for Solar Economy Lappeenranta University of Technology Going CO 2 negative through CCUS: current solutions and future perspectives EU Sustainable Energy Week Brussels, June 7, 2018

2 1 st Modelling of 100% RE Global Power System full study The modelling by LUT is the only one to run at full hourly resolution on a global-local scale. Real weather data were used for assessing the solar, wind and hydro resources. By 2050, the world population is expected to grow from 7.3 to 9.7 billion. The global electricity demand for the power sector is set to increase from 24,310 TWh in 2015 to around 48,800 TWh by

3 Electricity Generation in 2015 and In 2050, solar PV accounts for 69%, wind energy 18%, hydropower 8% and bioenergy 2% of the total electricity mix globally. Gas generation is only from renewable energy based gas (bio-methane and power-to-gas) Nuclear power still accounts for negligible 0.3% of the total electricity generation, due to the end of its assumed technical life, but could be phased out earlier.

4 Regional Variation Solar PV and Wind Solar PV is the dominating source of electricity in the Sun Belt Wind energy is very important in the North In regions of less solar PV and wind energy the contribution of hydropower is excellent 4

5 Electricity System Cost during Transition The global power system LCOE remains stable for the first periods, showing a gradual decline from 70 /MWh to 59 /MWh from 2015 to 2040, including all generation, storage, curtailment and parts of the grid costs Beyond 2040 the LCOE further declines to 52 /MWh by 2050, signifying that larger capacities of RE addition result in reduction of energy costs After an initial increase, the investment requirements decline after 2030 to stabilise between 2040 to

6 Job Opportunities - GHG Emissions to zero The global energy transition to a 100% renewable electricity system creates 36 million jobs by 2050 in comparison to 19 million jobs by Governments should start programmes to convert coal jobs to jobs for renewable energy. Global greenhouse gas emissions significantly reduce from about 11 GtCO 2eq in 2015 to zero emissions by 2050 or earlier, as the total LCOE of the power system declines. 6

7 Carbon Capture and Utilisation/ Sequestration (1), (2): violate the Paris Agreement, to be stopped asap (3): violates the Paris Agreement, since only 80-90% capturing efficiency, CO 2 -to-solidmatter needed (4): economically highly questionable approach, CO 2 -to-solidmatter needed (5): nice in theory, in practice works only for MSW-CC-U-Power-to-Plastics-MSW route, which is minor (6): this is the most reasonable and realistic CCU route (7): biomass is a limited and expensive resource, limited contribution to be expected (8): BECCS is highly debated and violates most relevant criteria (land conflict, water stress, inflexible, etc.) (9): DACCS is much more realistic than BECCS and most likely needed, but CO 2 -to-solidmatter needed 7

8 Future CC+U options Fundamental insights: Net emissions to be zero, hence fossil fuels CCU routes are finally not allowed, given the fact that 10+ Gt CO2 /a have to be removed from the ecosphere in 2050s for 2ºC target Fossil routes are only allowed, if NO technical option available (maybe limestone for cement) source: NCE, Final report Q Q Sustainable/ unavoidable CO 2 sources: Cement mills (part of limestone) Waste incinerators/ Waste-to-Energy plants Pulp & Paper plants Waste water treatment plants / biogas+h 2 upgrade Biofuel production (most will be not able to compete with electricity based synfuels, maybe except ethanol in Brazil) CO 2 direct air capture (maybe CO 2 seawater capture) Excess electricity H2O Electrolysis O2 H2 CO2 CO2 reduction process H2O CxHyOz Today s CO 2 sources diminished for net zero emissions Coal power plants (not needed anymore) Steel & Iron (to be switched to H 2 for reduction process) Refineries for fossil fuels (not needed anymore) 8

9 Overview on Negative Emission Technologies Source: Minx et al., Negative emissions - Part 1: Research landscape and Synthesis, Environ. Res. Lett. Fuss et al., Negative emissions - Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects, Environ. Res. Lett. Nemet et al., Negative emissions - Part 3: Innovation and upscaling, Environ. Res. Lett. 9

10 Key takeaways 100% renewable energy is technically feasible and economically viable Full hourly resolved modeling ensures energy supply throughout the year Key energy system components are solar photovoltaics, wind energy, batteries, PtX Energy transition to 100% RE eliminates GHG emissions, reduces cost and creates jobs Unavoidable CO 2 point sources utilised for CCU: cement mills, pulp & paper, incinerators CO 2 direct air capture will emerge to the main CO 2 source for CCU Fossil-CCS to be avoided, whereas Negative Emission Technologies are needed 10