Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Assessment. February 2014 (July 2016 update) prepared by

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1 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Assessment February 2014 July 2016 update) prepared by

2 Executive Summary The Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis presents the results of a full assessment of land needs for the Town to support responsible, sustainable growth into the future. This Study examines population increases beyond the previous population cap of 30,000 to 35,000 residents, according to a continued growth model for future community expansion. This Study identifies two planning horizons for managing future growth over a 60-year timeframe, from a base year of 2013: Short- to medium-term growth from , where lands are identified for meeting immediate needs; and Long-term growth from , where lands are identified for strategic annexation planning for future needs. Planning for population and employment growth within these timeframes is essential for maintaining the health and sustainability of the community. This can help to achieve the following community goals: Competitive land market. Sufficient supplies of land for development can keep real estate prices and availability competitive with other communities, as compared to conditions where land may be scarce or unavailable. Diverse mix of housing. Providing an accessible mix of housing types e.g., single-family detached, semi-detached, mixed-use) can present more options for potential newcomers to the town, as well as local residents that wish to upgrade or alter their housing as they age or change their conditions. Servicing efficiency. Urban patterns of development can reduce overall servicing costs for the community, as less linear infrastructure is required to support new growth. Economic competitiveness. Ensuring a sufficient amount and diversity of commercial and industrial land can support the expansion of local businesses and promote Okotoks as an option for business relocation. Landscape conservation. Planning for sustainable patterns of development at urban densities can reduce overall land consumption, which can help to protect regional ecological resources and agricultural lands. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update i

3 Growth in the Town over the planning horizon must consider important local and regional issues, including: High regional growth rates. The Calgary Region has and is expected to continue to experience significant growth and expansion; according to the Calgary Regional Partnership CRP), the Region is expected to grow from 1.4 million 2011) to just over 3 million by High local growth rates. The Town of Okotoks is receiving a major share of new growth in the region, receiving about 4.4% of total regional growth from This represents a 110% increase in residents between 2001 and Position as a regional centre. Okotoks will be positioned to serve as an important regional service centre into the future, with a likely expansion of commercial space to meet the needs of surrounding communities in the southern Calgary Region. Demographic changes. Ageing residents and an expected decline in household sizes will present a different set of demands for housing products in the future. Servicing limitations. Infrastructure investment and planning in the Town has previously considered an ultimate build-out of 30,000 to 35,000 residents. Additional servicing capacity through new infrastructure and water licenses will be required to support new growth. Projected Land Requirements Future land demand in the Town of Okotoks will be strongly linked to population increases over time. Population growth estimates are provided in Figure 1. It is expected that the Town will grow to a population of about 82,152 in 2073, an increase of approximately 203% over the estimated 2013 population. These growth estimates consider Calgary Regional Partnership regional population projections, and assume that the Town will continue to capture about 4.4% of regional growth into the future. Given these estimates, net land requirements for new growth in the Town of Okotoks have been calculated for the study period for residential, commercial, and industrial uses. These projected net demands are provided in Table 1. Existing Land Supplies Developable land supplies within the Town of Okotoks as of July 2013 include the following: Residential land supporting an additional 3,771 housing units, including 160 semidetached and 355 mixed-use apartment units; 36.1 hectares of commercial land; and 85.1 hectares of industrial land, including the Southbank Industrial District. For the purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that approximately 10% of the projected residential demand to 2073 can be accommodated through the redevelopment of existing areas. This would include intensification and infill with the development of smaller lots in existing neighbourhoods, mixed-use residential/commercial projects developed in key nodes, and other redevelopment projects over time. ii Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

4 Figure 1. Projected Population, Town of Okotoks, Table 1. Summary of Net Land Demand in hectares), Town of Okotoks, Total Total Residential Land Demand Single Detached Attached Row & Semi-Detached) Apartment Commercial Land Demand Industrial Land Demand Total Net Land Demand Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update iii

5 Future Growth Concept To accommodate additional growth within the community, an expansion of the Town boundary to encompass additional developable land will be required. An assessment of the suitability of surrounding lands for future growth was performed to evaluate potential areas for expansion, focusing on two key factors: Environmental vulnerability, which incorporates the potential for major impacts to important landscape or ecological features, such as unstable slopes, natural land cover, or wetlands; and Development priority, which includes whether an area would be an attractive location for a particular use, such as areas close to major transportation nodes for commercial/industrial uses, or sites close to open space for residential uses. This analysis was used as a basis for developing a long-term growth concept for the Town of Okotoks. This concept, provided in Figure 2, presents four major areas for expansion defined by general land uses: 30-Year Residential Areas. These areas comprise the lands required for expected residential growth to 2043, as well as neighbourhood-oriented commercial development to support this growth and take advantage of strategic transportation nodes. 60-Year Residential Areas. The 60-Year Residential areas include lands required for an additional 30 years of housing development to 2073, as well as supporting neighbourhood-oriented commercial uses. Highway Commercial/Industrial Areas. These areas would incorporate additional lands required to accommodate industrial growth, as well as highwayoriented commercial uses beyond those accommodated in the Residential areas. Altogether, these areas would meet expected needs over a 60-year period. Gateway Areas. Effective management of key transportation corridors will require consistent planning. To this end, it is desirable for the Town to manage land use and development at the Highway 2A gateways into the Town, as well as key locations along 338 Ave E and Highway 7. This will not require changes to current uses, although more intensive development may be allowed. In addition, any planned expansion of Town boundaries should include the Campground Lands to the east of Okotoks, originally slated for annexation by the Town in the previous Intermunicipal Development Plan IDP). Other key features of this concept include: Major corridors for new development along major roads and arterials, which will be the focus for denser development types; Major nodes at designated corridor intersections, which will be the focus for neighbourhood-oriented commercial development; Transportation connections between corridors and the existing transportation system, where major transportation improvements would be required; and A general location for a new water reservoir, which would be required for new water supplies to support growth. iv Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

6 Figure Year Growth Concept, Town of Okotoks. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update v

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8 Altogether, this concept would include: Approximately 1,246 hectares of developable land to accommodate future residential and neighbourhood commercial growth; and An additional 47 hectares of developable land to address future industrial and highway commercial growth requirements. This would accommodate new development, as well as the land necessary for road and arterial rights-of-way, Municipal and Environmental Reserves, stormwater management infrastructure, community uses, and open spaces. Infrastructure Servicing Given the development concept provided, major infrastructure upgrades would be necessary to support future community growth. For the Town of Okotoks, municipal investments would be required for transportation, potable water, and sanitary sewer systems. Note that all new projects would be required to manage stormwater on-site; therefore, this infrastructure is not assumed to be managed by the Town in future development. Overall changes to these current systems to support growth to the year 2073 would include the following: Potable water. Given the option of receiving treated water from the City of Calgary, required storage facilities would likely be required on high ground in the north. New water supplies would largely service northern Okotoks, while existing withdrawals would support the Town south of the river. Sanitary sewer. Major forcemains would be required along Northridge Drive, a corridor south of the Wedderburn Lands and north of the current Town boundary to the west, and along Highway 7. A river crossing siphon, major trunk upgrades along N Railway St and 32 St. E, and multiple lift stations would also be required. An expansion to the wastewater treatment plant would be necessary to accommodate additional flows. Transportation. Highways 2, 2A, and 7 will require additional lanes for capacity, as well as off-ramp improvements where queueing would be expected. New arterials would also be planned along the identified corridors in the north, and a major new intersection would be required for the junction of 338 Ave E and Highway 2. Additional widening and corridor optimization would be required along other major routes within the Town boundaries. Additional engineering studies will be required to provide more costing details for infrastructure projects. Note that changes to the phasing identified in the concept may adjust the schedule of expenditures. Fiscal Assessment Accommodating future growth in the Town will require the following infrastructure costs: Water infrastructure costs for the Town itself; A growth charge levied by the City of Calgary for additional water infrastructure; Wastewater infrastructure, including expansions to the wastewater treatment plant; Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update vii

9 New and upgraded transportation infrastructure; and Public facilities expansions. For the identified 30-year growth concept, assuming a total of 685 hectares of developable lands in new annexed areas and an additional 178 hectares in existing lands within current Town boundaries, costs can be allocated as shown in Table 2. Given these calculations, the Town would be expected to require about $81,993 per acre in off-site levies for the 30-year time horizon. Although this represents an increase from the current levies, Table 3 provides a comparison with levies from other communities in the region. With a proposed increase, potential development levies will be comparable to other markets. Although the final structure and allocation of infrastructure costs will require further analysis and consultation, development levies do not appear to be a major limiting factor to future growth given this information. Table 2. Calculation of Development Levies, Town of Okotoks, Item Total Levy Levy per Acre Water $8,920,000 $4,188 City of Calgary Growth Charge) $9,906 Sanitary Sewer $48,325,400 $22,688 Transportation $70,740,000 $33,211 Public Facilities* $12,000 TOTAL $127,058,500 $81,993 * Public facilities levies are assumed to remain consistent with current levies. Table 3. Comparison of Development Levies, Item Okotoks current) Okotoks proposed) Airdrie Calgary Transportation $ 5,249 $ 33,211 $ 41,709 $ 48,423 Water $ 17,292 $ 14,094 $ 13,068 $ 9,906 Sanitary Sewer $ 4,158 $ 22,688 $ 7,462 $ 24,468 1 Public Facilities $ 12,000 $ 12,000 $ 7,800 2 $ 30,136 TOTAL $ 38,699 $ $ 70,039 $ 112,933 1 Includes additional stormwater levy 2 Estimated Airdrie Recreation Contribution based on $1,200 per unit viii Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

10 Additional studies will be coordinated to provide an understanding of the full costs of growth to the Town. An assessment of additional costs will also be contingent on more detailed engineering studies. Next Steps The final results of this report provide a foundation for future planning efforts to support long-term growth in the Town of Okotoks. Recommended actions to continue this effort include the following: Proceed with the annexation process and the corresponding negotiations with the MD of Foothills. Consult with the public on annexation and potential impacts to the community. Consult with local stakeholders on expansions to development levies to finance future growth. Revise the Municipal Development Plan MDP) and the IDP to consider projected growth and annexed lands. Conduct additional infrastructure studies water, wastewater, transportation) and cost of growth studies to coordinate long-term capital planning. Develop Area Structure Plans for newly annexed areas to provide for new development As of July 2016, the process for annexation is concluding. The next steps in the process should include the development of a revised MDP and further studies to understand the total costs of growth to the Town. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update ix

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12 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i 1. OVERVIEW Objectives Report Approach and Content 2 2. LOCAL CONTEXT Historical Context Current Trends High regional and local population growth Role as a regional service centre Age profile and household structure Physical and environmental limitations to growth Limits to servicing capacity Existing Policy Background Provincial Land Use Policy and Planning Calgary Regional Partnership Town of Okotoks Land Use Policy and Planning Municipal District of Foothills Land Use Policy and Planning Intermunicipal Planning Conclusions PROJECTED LAND NEEDS Population Forecast Residential Development Needs Past Residential Development Trends Projected Demand by Housing Type Average Net Density of New Residential Development Projected Net Residential Land Requirements Commercial Development Needs Current Commercial Situation Commercial Floor Space Demand Future Commercial Floor Space Potential Net Projected Commercial Land Requirements Industrial Development Needs Historic and Current Industrial Situation Projected Industrial Floor Space Demand Projected Net Industrial Land Requirements 46 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update xi

13 3.5. Gross Land Demand Estimates Conclusion LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT Available Land Supplies Land Requirements Annexation Land Suitability Assessment Environmental Vulnerability Development Priority Overall Suitability Conclusion OPTIONS FOR GROWTH Assumptions Overview of Growth Concept Rationale North Residential West Residential South Residential Southeast Commercial/Industrial Alternate Directions Considerations for Future Growth Planning IMPACTS OF FUTURE GROWTH Water Wastewater Transportation Financial Analysis Water Infrastructure Wastewater Infrastructure Transportation Infrastructure Public Facilities Total Off-Site Levies Conclusions CONCLUSIONS 105 APPENDIX A: LAND DEMAND PROJECTION ANALYSIS 107 APPENDIX B: WATER INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT ANALYSIS 143 APPENDIX C: WASTEWATER INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT ANALYSIS 173 APPENDIX D: TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT ANALYSIS 209 xii Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

14 List of Figures Figure 2.1. Study Area Context. 4 Figure 2.2. Overview of the Town of Okotoks. 5 Figure 2.3. Historical annexation in the Town of Okotoks, 1942 to present. 6 Figure 2.4. Population Pyramid, Town of Okotoks, Figure 2.5. CRP Priority Growth Areas 2012). 13 Figure 2.6. Town of Okotoks Area Structure Plans. 17 Figure 2.7. Town of Okotoks Land Use Bylaw. 21 Figure 2.8. MD of Foothills Land Use Bylaw. 27 Figure 2.9. Green Haven Estates Area Structure Plan ASP). 29 Figure Sandstone Springs Area Structure Plan ASP). 30 Figure Wind Walk Area Structure Plan ASP). 31 Figure Highway 2A Industrial H2AI) Area Structure Plan ASP). 32 Figure MD Foothills-Okotoks Intermunicipal Development Plan IDP) Area. 34 Figure MD Foothills-Okotoks Development Management Strategy Area. 35 Figure 3.1. Projected Population, Town of Okotoks, Figure 4.1. Environmental Vulnerability Score, Study Area 56 Figure 4.2. Development Priority, Residential Uses. 59 Figure 4.3. Development Priority, Commercial Uses. 60 Figure 4.4. Development Priority, Industrial Uses. 61 Figure 4.5. Overall Suitability Residential Uses. 63 Figure 4.6. Overall Suitability, Commercial Uses. 64 Figure 4.7. Overall Suitability Industrial Uses. 65 Figure Year Growth Concept, Town of Okotoks. 69 Figure 5.2. Growth Concept, North Residential Development. 75 Figure 5.3. Growth Concept, West Residential Development. 77 Figure 5.4. Growth Concept, South Residential Development. 79 Figure 5.5. Growth Concept, Southeast Commercial/Industrial Development. 81 Figure 6.1. Drinking Water Infrastructure Improvements North), Town of Okotoks. 87 Figure 6.2. Drinking Water Infrastructure Improvements South), Town of Okotoks. 88 Figure 6.3. Okotoks Sanitary Sewer Improvements, 30-Year Assessment. 91 Figure 6.4. Okotoks Sanitary Sewer Improvements, 60-Year Assessment. 93 Figure 6.5. Okotoks Transportation Improvements, 30-Year Assessment. 97 Figure 6.6. Okotoks Transportation Improvements, 60-Year Assessment. 99 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update xiii

15 List of Tables Table 2.1. Town of Okotoks Land Use Bylaw Designations. 18 Table 2.2. MD of Foothills Land Use Bylaw Designations Study Area). 26 Table 3.1. Projected Population Figures, Town of Okotoks, Table 3.2. Housing Demand Forecast, Town of Okotoks, Table 3.3. Projected Net Residential Land Requirements, Town of Okotoks, Table 3.4. Projected Commercial Land Demand, Town of Okotoks, Table 3.5. Projected Industrial Land Demand, Town of Okotoks, Table 3.6. Gross-up Factors for Land Demand, by Type, Town of Okotoks. 47 Table 3.7. Summary of Net Land Demand in hectares), Town of Okotoks, Table 4.1. Stock of Developable Lands, Town of Okotoks. 50 Table 4.2. Dwelling Unit Yields from Developable Residential Lands, Town of Okotoks. 50 Table 4.3. Yields from Developable Commercial/Industrial Lands, Town of Okotoks. 51 Table 4.4. Sources of Land for Projected Development, Town of Okotoks. 53 Table 4.5. Environmental Vulnerability Factors. 54 Table 4.6. Development Priority Factors. 57 Table 5.1. Proposed Annexation Areas. 72 Table 5.2. Proposed Annexation Areas, North Residential Development. 76 Table 5.3. Proposed Annexation Areas, West Residential Development. 77 Table 5.4. Proposed Annexation Areas, South Residential Development. 79 Table 5.5. Proposed Annexation Areas, Southeast Commercial/Industrial Development. 81 Table 6.1. Proposed Water Development Levies, Town of Okotoks. 101 Table 6.2. Proposed Wastewater Development Levies, Town of Okotoks. 102 Table 6.3. Total Proposed Off-Site Development Levies, Town of Okotoks. 103 Table 6.4. Proposed Transportation Development Levies, Town of Okotoks. 103 Table 6.5. Comparisons of Development Levies. 103 xiv Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

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18 1. Overview The Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis Growth Study) presents the results of an assessment of land needs for the Town over a 60-year planning horizon to support responsible urban growth, economic vitality and social conscience within the Town. Although Okotoks has worked to maintain a limited growth model for a population of 30-35,000 through their 1998 Municipal Sustainability Plan MSP) and Municipal Development Plan MDP), this population cap was lifted in September 2012 in response to increased population growth in the Calgary region, and greater development pressures in the areas surrounding Okotoks. This change has required that the Town develop plans to address new demand through managed growth. Considering this, the Growth Study provides foundational information to help guide future development to minimize infrastructure costs, protect the natural environment, and nurture the broader sense of community within Okotoks. This work incorporates a consideration of future shifts in regional and local demographics, social needs, and infrastructure requirements, as well as the need to meet obligations for development defined under the Town MDP and the Calgary Metropolitan Plan CMP) Objectives The Town of Okotoks is striving to define a vision for increased population, employment and development targets, in keeping with its commitment to community sustainability and environmental stewardship. As part of the long-term growth strategy for the Town, the Study will help define this vision by outlining a new growth model that adjusts the Town s development boundary. To this end, the Growth Study has the following four objectives: 1. Describe historical and future expected trends in population, housing, and employment growth in the Town of Okotoks. 2. Considering these trends, present estimates of the amount of new land required to accommodate anticipated future growth in the Town from the base year of 2013 over the following 30 and 60 years. 3. Identify areas to accommodate this growth, including existing lands within the Town and potential lands to be annexed from the Municipal District of Foothills. 4. Evaluate the implications of this growth, including infrastructure servicing needs and anticipated impacts for the community.

19 The Study considers two areas for growth, based on the planning horizon used: 1. Short- to medium-term growth areas, which would include lands to support projected growth to Long-term growth areas, which would include a land supply for an additional 30 years to These areas are used to represent general phasing for growth over time to ensure continuous development and corridors for growth along major roadways Report Approach and Content Urban growth is affected by a variety of factors: municipal, regional and provincial policies, land tenure, infrastructure, housing preferences, changing land demands, and physical and fiscal limitations, among others. Integrated planning must examine these considerations fairly and objectively within a consistent evaluation framework to develop a growth model that addresses all interrelated issues. Considering these needs, the Study incorporates the following content: Chapter Two compiles key information about the current planning context in the Town of Okotoks and the surrounding study area. This includes a policy review and assessment of development considerations to provide an understanding of current policy direction, community values, and local strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Chapter Three provides a summary of projected land requirements to support population and employment growth over 30- and 60-year planning horizons. This incorporates predictions of future population growth, demographic changes, and impacts on the demand for residential, commercial, and industrial lands. Chapter Four evaluates the available land supply in the Town of Okotoks, including developable vacant lands currently within the Town, and the expectations for infill development and redevelopment on sites with existing development. Chapter Five details a growth concept for the Town to meet additional development needs for the 30- and 60-year planning horizons in this report. This includes a comprehensive evaluation of site restrictions, the rationale for the selection of sites for annexation, phasing of planning and development, and details on obstacles to development in other locations. Chapter Six presents the implications of the proposed approach to growth, including potential impacts on Town services. The report concludes with a summary of the final recommendations and next steps for the Town of Okotoks to take in planning for future growth management. Attached appendices provide more detail on the study results, including the land demand projection analysis and infrastructure assessments. 2 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

20 2. Local Context The study area for this report consists of the current Town of Okotoks corporate boundaries and surrounding lands wholly within the Municipal District of Foothills No. 31) within approximately 3.5 kilometers or two sections four quarter sections) of the Town. The location of the Town within the region is illustrated in Figure 2.1, and an overview of the Town itself is given in Figure Historical Context A map of the historical expansion of the Town is provided in Figure 2.3. The settlement known as Okotoks began to develop in the late 18th century in the river valley along the Sheep River, and gained status as a Town in Early development focused on the area as a center for agriculture and forestry, and later, brick-making and oil distribution, with the railway as a major nexus for economic activity. After World War II, businesses in the brick, oil, and lumber industries declined. The Texas Gulf Sulphur Plant CanOxy) opened in 1959, bringing some employment to the Town. However, the population of the town fell as a result of the decrease in economic activity in the area, reducing the population to about 600 people. Starting in the 1970s, however, Okotoks experienced a rise in local population and the economy due to growth in the Calgary region overall, and the appeal of the Town as a bedroom community for workers from Calgary. This growth has allowed the Town to regain the population lost in the middle of the 20th century, and achieve a position as a major service hub in the region. Additionally, the Town has worked to develop a strong and diverse economic base to support its position as a complete community. In the recent past, development in the Town of Okotoks has been shaped by the 1998 Okotoks Municipal Development Plan MDP), which evolved from principles of sustainability and consideration of the carrying capacity of the Sheep River watershed. The MDP considered that the ultimate Urban Growth Area for the Town should ultimately encompass the land necessary for a community of 25,000 to 30,000 residents, and that no further development should occur past this build-out. The MDP also incorporated other concepts related to promoting sustainable development, environmental stewardship, economic opportunity, and social capital within the Town.

21 Figure 2.1. Study Area Context. 4 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

22 Figure 2.2. Overview of the Town of Okotoks. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 5

23 Figure 2.3. Historical annexation in the Town of Okotoks, 1942 to present. Since 1998, the finite development model defined by the MDP has guided planning and development decisions in the Town of Okotoks. However, the rapid pace of growth in the Calgary region, paired with plans for significant country residential subdivisions close to Okotoks in MD of Foothills, led the Town Council to adopt a continued growth model in September Although accommodating new urban growth has been recognized as a challenge, especially considering limitations on the Town s water supply, Okotoks is committed to expanding its boundaries and planning new development in a responsible, sustainable way that meets the key social, economic, and environmental goals of the community Current Trends At present, there are a number of factors that must be considered in future growth planning for the Town of Okotoks and the surrounding area. These trends build upon the historic foundation of development in Okotoks over the past century, with new pressures related to its location in a highly dynamic area of strong economic growth. 6 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

24 High regional and local population growth The Calgary region is experiencing a period of significant growth and expansion. According to Statistics Canada, the area experienced an almost 29% increase in the number of residents over a 10-year period between 2001 and 2011, representing an average growth rate of approximately 2.5%. During this same period, change in the population of the Town of Okotoks has been considerable: a 110% increase in the number of residents 8.7% per year average), and an increase in the share of the region s population from 1.1% to 1.9%, which accounted for about 4.4% of total regional growth. This expansion is expected to continue into the future. The Calgary Regional Partnership CRP) has estimated that the population of the Calgary region will continue to grow from 1.4 million in 2011 to just over 3 million by Although growth rates are predicted to decline into the future with an ageing population and decreasing birth rates, the region will likely remain competitive due to significant economic activity into the foreseeable future. This will support immigration into the region from other areas of the province and country, as well as from abroad Role as a regional service centre The location of Okotoks in the southern Calgary region has positioned it as a commercial centre for surrounding communities, in addition to its role as a bedroom community for workers in the City of Calgary to the north. Commercial services are provided not only from the historic downtown in Heritage Okotoks, where there are a significant number of smaller businesses, but also from larger-scale businesses in districts close to Highways 2A and 7. As the Town is the largest community in the southern Calgary Region, the commercial districts in the Town have a primary trade area oriented to regional services for the nearby Towns of High River, Black Diamond, and Turner Valley, as well as rural residents of Vulcan County and the Municipal District of Foothills MD of Foothills). Future growth in these areas can help to support additional commercial growth within the Town of Okotoks Age profile and household structure The age structure of residents in the Town of Okotoks is shown in Figure 2.4 for Compared with the population profiles for the country and for Alberta, the population of the Town tends to have a higher proportion of children 0-19 years old and adults years old. There is also a lower proportion of residents aged and 50+ than in the rest of the province and the country. That Okotoks has a greater representation of younger families is typical of suburban communities characterized by high rates of recent growth. In the long term, it is expected that a lack of multifamily and more affordable single-family housing will mean that the cohorts currently 0-19 years old may leave the community for education, housing, and employment. If the housing supply is constrained and current residents decide to age in place, this could lead to a decline in the proportion of children and young families in the community over the mid- to long term. Conversely, data for Alberta suggests that within the next 5-10 years, a significant proportion of the province s population would be at an age where they would be interested in the housing and quality of life available in Okotoks. Allowing for growth that supports this type of in-migration can be essential to maintain a sustainable age structure in the community over the long term. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 7

25 Figure 2.4. Population Pyramid, Town of Okotoks, Physical and environmental limitations to growth Growth planning must consider the physical and environmental barriers to development presented by the Sheep River and surrounding river valley. The Sheep River constrains the alignment and expansion of municipal infrastructure. While historic growth patterns began on the north side of the river, significant new growth on both sides has made infrastructure and servicing expansions more difficult and costly. The river valley is considered to be a critical environmental and recreation resource for the community. Accordingly, the Town has implemented a policy for restricting development within the floodway of the Sheep River, and encouraging responsible growth in other areas of the floodplain. The river valley escarpment and a number of coulees in the area also present significant slopes and physical barriers to development. Drainage features throughout the area must also be considered in new development projects, especially with respect to stormwater management and wetlands conservation Limits to servicing capacity One of the most pressing concerns for growth in the Okotoks area is the available capacity for servicing new development. The Town currently draws its water from the Sheep River watershed, and has sufficient licenses from the province for 7.66 ML/d, or 2.76 million cubic meters per year, for water supplies. The growth cap of approximately 30,000 residents on the Town was focused on ensuring that the carrying capacity of the Sheep River watershed was not exceeded. However, even with the lifting of this limit on development, there is a provincial moratorium as of 2006) on additional water licenses being issued in the South Saskatchewan River Basin. Future growth will require securing new sources of water, 8 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

26 potentially through regional collaboration with neighbouring Towns and the MD of Foothills, or with the City of Calgary Existing Policy Background Current planning policy and enabling legislation in Alberta provides for a system where responsibilities for current and long-term planning are shared between the province and municipal governments. Generally, the provincial framework provides broad goals and objectives, along with legal requirements for land uses and associated plans. Municipal governments are, in turn, responsible for adopting detailed land use policies through Municipal Development Plans MDPs), Area Structure Plans ASPs), Land-Use Bylaws, and other documents. These policies provide the specific direction and detailed requirements for development within communities. The Town has established a series of local policies to guide growth, primarily through the 1998 Town of Okotoks MDP as mentioned. However, recent actions by the Town Council to adopt a continued growth model in the MDP and investigate the feasibility of continued development have meant that current policies will need to be revised and updated accordingly. Regional agreements also have an influence on planning decisions in Okotoks. At a local level, the Town has had an Intermunicipal Development Plan IDP) and associated Joint Planning Agreement JPA) with the MD of Foothills, No. 31 to guide planning along the urban-rural interface on the boundary between the two communities. Additionally, at a broader regional level, Okotoks is a member of the Calgary Regional Partnership CRP), which administers the Calgary Metropolitan Plan CMP) to manage regional growth and development goals Provincial Land Use Policy and Planning At a provincial level, regional and local planning is strongly influenced by: the Municipal Government Act; and the Alberta Land Use Framework. In addition to these, there are a number of other laws and regulations that will have an impact on local planning, including the Public Lands Act, the Subdivision and Development Regulation, the Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act, and others The Municipal Government Act The Municipal Government Act MGA) is the primary legislative document that establishes formal operating procedures for municipalities. This includes a detailed framework for decision-making with respect to land use at the local level. Part 17 of the MGA Planning and Development ) outlines a variety of components for land use management at the municipal level, including: Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 9

27 planning authorities, development plans, land use bylaws, development levies and conditions, land subdivision and conditions for approvals, reserve lands environmental, municipal, and school), and appeals processes. A primary component of this development framework is the establishment of statutory development plans to provide overall guidance for local decision-making regarding land use and development. There are several categories of statutory plans recognized under the MGA: Intermunicipal Development Plans IDPs) are adopted as agreements between two or more municipalities to manage fringe areas on the boundaries of urban and rural municipalities, or natural features shared between multiple jurisdictions. Municipal Development Plans MDPs) are the primary policy document that establishes land use policies for an entire municipal, and are required by the Act under Section 632 for all municipalities with a population of 3,500 or more. Area Structure Plans ASPs) establish the general land use, transportation, and servicing elements of smaller areas within a municipality which are experiencing or expected to experience substantial new growth. Area Redevelopment Plans ARPs) provide guidance on planning policies for smaller areas within a municipality with existing development where significant redevelopment is occurring, or likely to occur. The statutory plans adopted by a municipality must address required components specified in Division 4, Part 17 of the MGA. These requirements include required and allowed content of the plans, notification and public consultation processes, and consistency with other statutory plans. Note that all statutory plans must be submitted to the Minister for approval Alberta Land Use Framework The Alberta government adopted the Land Use Framework LUF) in 2008, which established a new approach to manage land and natural resources in the province. The primary purpose for the Framework is to achieve key long-term economic, environmental, and social goals, and is primarily concerned with: improving provincial leadership on land-use issues through policy direction and guidelines; taking a new approach to manage public and private lands and natural resources to achieve Alberta s long-term economic, environmental, and social goals; increasing certainty for industry through integration and coordination of provincial policy and aligned planning and decision-making; encouraging stewardship and conservation on public and private lands; clarifying roles and responsibilities for land-use decisions at all levels; and improving information sharing. 10 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

28 Through the Alberta Land Stewardship Act ALSA), the enabling statute for the LUF passed in October 2009, the Alberta government has been working to develop seven regional plans for the province. The South Saskatchewan Regional Plan SSRP) is in force as of September 2014, and has the following impacts on local planning: Regional Plans are binding on local governments, and all statutory plans must conform to the policies outlined in corresponding Regional Plans, as well as any subregional or issue-specific plans developed under these Regional Plans, to be approved under the MGA. Upon receipt of a Regional Plan, municipalities must amend their statutory plans accordingly to meet this requirement. Conservation easements may be granted to local governments by landowners under the ALSA for the protection, conservation, and enhancement of the environment, aesthetic values, or agriculture. This can be one instrument to support lands for recreational, open space, and environmental education and research purposes, and can include positive and negative obligations on the land. Conservation directives may be imposed by the province as part of a Regional Plan to protect, conserve, manage and enhance environmental, natural scenic, esthetic or agricultural values by restricting the use of the land. Consequently, landowners may be eligible for compensation for reductions in property value. Regional Plans may also include provisions for conservation off-sets, where the adverse effects of activities such as development may be required to be balanced by approved improvements in a conservation area. These improvements can be used to assign stewardship units to a landowner, which may be traded on an exchange established by the province. The conservation off-set system also allows the creation of Transfer of Development Credits programs by local authorities Calgary Regional Partnership The Calgary Regional Partnership CRP) is a voluntary regional organization of 14 municipalities within the Calgary Region. The CRP was established in 1999 to facilitate sustainable growth and development in the region, and promote exchange and collaboration between member governments to meet these objectives. Management of the CRP is through an Executive Committee consisting of elected officials from each of the constituent governments. The program areas for the CRP include regional initiatives in watershed protection, regional transit and transportation, economic development, land use planning, and regional infrastructure, among others. However, although the Town of Okotoks is a member of the CRP, the MD of Foothills and two other rural municipalities opted out of the Partnership in While this has not restricted the role of the Town of Okotoks in participating in the initiatives of the CRP, this does mean that regional collaboration with the MD of Foothills must be considered and managed separately from the broader efforts over the entire region Calgary Metropolitan Plan The Calgary Metropolitan Plan CMP) is the centrepiece of efforts by the CRP to coordinate regional land use planning and other initiatives amongst its members. Initially developed in 2009 and amended in June 2012 and May 2014, the CRP establishes a general framework to sustainably accommodate an estimated 1.6 million additional residents in the Region by Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 11

29 The following objectives are identified in the CMP: Protecting the natural environment and watershed Protect watersheds Enhance ecological infrastructure Address climate change Support research partnerships and conservation initiatives Fostering the region s economic vitality Plan for resilient economies Support sustainable rural economies Accommodate growth in more compact settlement patterns Develop compact settlements Create sustainable and resilient communities Support sustainable rural development Integrating efficient regional infrastructure systems Integrate and invest in regional infrastructure Plan for regional transportation and complete mobility Develop and implement strategic regional water, wastewater, and stormwater systems Investigate a regional waste management system Supporting a regional approach to governance Collaborate for a sustainable region Implement a regional decision-making model Coordinate implementation All of these identified objectives will impact ongoing growth management efforts by the Town of Okotoks, and the CRP will provide one means by which the Town can coordinate local planning with regional efforts in key areas. For the purposes of coordinating long-term growth, there are specific policy statements in the CMP that will have immediate impacts on potential strategies: Priority Growth Areas. The CMP identifies specific areas as Priority Growth Areas, which should be the target for future sustainable growth at urban levels of density. The Plan indicates that all members should work to protect Areas in rural municipalities through intermunicipal planning processes. The Priority Growth Areas from the 2012 update within the study area are identified in Figure 2.5. Density and intensification requirements. Member municipalities should work to achieve residential densities of eight to 10 units per gross residential acre, and across the Region, at least 25% of new growth should be accommodated by redevelopment of existing areas. Development form and location. New development in Priority Growth Areas should be compact, mixed-use, walkable activity centres, and residential development should be located proximate to local and regional transit. Regional servicing requirements. To be eligible for regional infrastructure and transportation programs, MDPs must indicate how minimum density targets will be achieved over time, and how municipal planning will align with the principles 12 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

30 Figure 2.5. CRP Priority Growth Areas 2012). of the CMP. Regional infrastructure will be staged as part of the development of identified Priority Growth Areas, and the City of Calgary will work to provide water and wastewater servicing to support this growth Other CRP plans and reports In support of the Calgary Metropolitan Plan, the CRP has worked on multiple initiatives to facilitate the achievement of regional goals under its mandate. Documents from these efforts include: 2009 CRP Regional Transit Plan 2009 Calgary Metropolitan Plan Environment Report Land Use and Travel: Plan It Calgary and Calgary Metropolitan Plan Scenario Series 2009, 2011) 2010 Planning and Technical Study on Water & Wastewater Servicing in the Calgary Region 2012 CRP Greenfield Toolbox Additional planning efforts by the CRP have involved regional infrastructure, transportation and economic development issues. Future efforts by the CRP will likely tie into strategies by Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 13

31 the Town to manage future growth, especially with respect to regional water infrastructure development Town of Okotoks Land Use Policy and Planning The overall planning policy framework for Okotoks has been based on a strong framework for sustainable community development pursued since the development of the 1995 Okotoks Strategic Plan. During consultations for the 1998 MDP, four foundations for sustainability were established to guide efforts in developing plans: 1. environmental stewardship 2. social conscience 3. economic development 4. fiscal responsibility As stated in a February 1998 Council resolution, this Sustainable Okotoks approach to community development incorporates these pillars into a number of key goals: living within the carrying capacity of the Sheep River Watershed, approximately 25,000 to 30,000 residents; managing growth to the urban boundaries and established carrying capacity; sizing all infrastructure to meet the needs of an ultimate population of 25,000 to 30,000 residents; modifying urban design to reduce reliance on vehicles through mixed land uses, higher-density housing, expansions to walkway and open space systems, and other changes; and promoting environmental sustainability programs such as eco-efficiency, recycling, water conservation, and architectural regulations. This approach has provided an overarching vision for planning in the Town for the past 18 years, contributing to the development of the 1998 Town of Okotoks MDP, subsequent reviews of the MDP, the 2007 Town Financial Sustainability Plan, and ongoing Town Business Plans. Recent considerations have impacted this framework, however. Given the rapid pace of growth in the region, as well as continuing development pressures on rural lands in the MD of Foothills close to the Town, the Town Council approved a resolution in September 2012 which removed the limits to development within the Town. This resolution also included provisions for: managing an annexation of lands from the MD of Foothills to accommodate an additional 30 years of projected growth; investigating long-term water servicing and transportation options to address this additional growth; negotiating protections for an additional 30-year land supply to meet long-term growth needs; pursuing high standards of excellence in sustainability for new growth beyond the historic growth cap; and revising the Foothills / Okotoks IDP to consider these changes. 14 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

32 In addition to the need to amend the existing IDP, the Town will also be required to change the existing MDP to consider new development areas and growth beyond 30,000 residents. This section summarizes existing MDP policies Town of Okotoks MDP The Town of Okotoks MDP, titled The Legacy Plan, was adopted by Council in 1998 and has provided policy direction for sustainable growth in Okotoks for a 20-year planning horizon. The overall policy intent of the plan is to define land uses and allocate infrastructure and community services in accordance with the principles of the Sustainable Okotoks approach. Additionally, this Plan focuses on the need to diversify and balance the property tax base of the Town to move beyond a commuter suburb status and develop a complete community. This Plan represented a shift in municipal policy from attracting regional growth to managing growth in a responsible and sustainable way. To that end, it addresses two development trends relevant to the Okotoks context: 1. A change in community character from rural agricultural to suburban residential as a result of rapid population growth since Strong community support for maintaining a sustainable lifestyle and outstanding quality of life grounded in a small town atmosphere and distinct sense of place. To address these trends, the MDP establishes a vision, targets, and corresponding policies for 13 governance areas, aligning with the Sustainable Okotoks principles: Parks and pathways, including the expansion of the current linked and linear open space system; Urban forest, which includes expanding the role of the Town in managing the urban forest through strategic investment and design standards; Escarpment and shoreline areas, with restrictions on development in the floodplain to protect ecological and recreational resources; Transportation, focusing on the safe and efficient movement of traffic through management of a road hierarchy and network-level linkages; Land use and urban design, where connected neighbourhood cells are created that encourage the transition to a regional service centre and a more balanced assessment ratio; Neighbourhood design, with the encouragement of a mix of uses and building types within new and existing neighbourhoods; Residential, including the provision of greater choice of residential unit types and lot sizes that can provide an attractive and orderly residential environment; Commercial, with an economic development policy that maintains the downtown as the primary focal point for commerce, while enhancing the position of Okotoks as a commercial service centre through new commercial and light industrial nodes; Industrial, including a policy to attract targeted industries in business parks within or adjacent to new neighbourhood cells; Community facilities, which act as a focal point for community life and respond to the needs of local residents and service providers; Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 15

33 Schools, with a focus on identifying local needs and determining the locations for additional school facilities in conjunction with School Boards; Downtown core, with policies that work to improve the place identity of the downtown core through good urban design; Financial and utility planning, which provides for a full range of municipal services in an affordable manner, in part through requiring developers to pay for all costs associated with new development, and by maintaining an adequate tax base; and Regional partnerships and planning, which incorporates work to containing expansion to existing municipal boundaries and annexations identified in the MDP. Some major land use indicator targets identified in the MDP include: Eight units per gross residential acre in new neigbourhoods, with higher densities recommended for locations close to collector roads, transit hubs, and community amenities; 95% preservation of environmentally significant lands / natural areas with 5% for path development); 20% of gross land area available as public open space and pathways potentially through municipal purchase beyond required municipal reserve dedication); 100% of undeveloped escarpment and river valley lands within the municipality to be purchased and rehabilitated to a natural state; 50/50% split of residents between north and south sides of the Sheep River; 22% of total property assessment tax base as commercial/industrial at build-out; 60% of residents employed within Okotoks; and 30% of total housing stock as non-traditional units. As noted, the MDP is based on a limited growth model based on the carrying capacity of the Sheep River Watershed. Recent actions by the Town Council have indicated that a continued growth model will be pursed to manage long-term projected growth, pending sufficient infrastructure capacity Town of Okotoks Area Structure Plans The Town currently has five ASPs in force, as shown in Figure 2.6. These Plans provide detailed direction for future land use, infrastructure siting, subdivision requirements, development sequencing, and desired densities for these locations. They include: South Okotoks ASP 1980). This area, encompassing much of the Town south of the Sheep River, includes residential, commercial, and industrial uses, with an emphasis on increasing non-residential activity within the Town and siting these uses close to major transportation routes. Northeast Okotoks ASP 1989). This area, incorporating the Okotoks Air Ranch, is primarily residential, with extensions to the public open space system such as a parkway open space corridor and conservation of a wildlife preserve and the escarpment. 16 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

34 East Okotoks ASP 2001). This area, largely on the site of the former Okotoks Gas Plant, includes industrial and recreation land uses which focus on the extension of the Okotoks Business Park, creation of new public open spaces, and the protection of environmentally sensitive areas. Southwest Okotoks ASP 2001). This area is primarily residential, with interconnected linear open spaces and a gateway commercial development at the corner of Southridge Drive and Highway 7. Northwest Okotoks ASP 2003). The most recent ASP includes the D Arcy Ranch area, and incorporates residential and commercial uses. The strategic direction for this plan is to increase the variety of housing choices, while integrating this new residential area with the North Gateway Commercial/Employment Centre. North Okotoks ASP pending). The North Okotoks ASP is currently under development in 2016, and includes preliminary planning for corridor development along Highway 2A, a community campus, and a residential neighbourhood. Plans for phasing also include areas expected for future annexation to the east, as well as the D Arcy Lands in the Northwest Okotoks ASP. Figure 2.6. Town of Okotoks Area Structure Plans. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 17

35 Town of Okotoks Land Use Bylaw The current Town of Okotoks Land Use Bylaw LUB) was adopted in October A description of the specific districts as of July 2013 is provided in Table 2.1, with the districts delineated in the map provided in Figure 2.7. These areas align with the associated land use zones identified in the MDP and individual ASPs. Table 2.1. Town of Okotoks Land Use Bylaw Designations. Code Designation Description Residential Development R-1 Residential Single Detached Low-density single-detached residential development R-1N Residential Narrow Lot Single Detached Narrow-lot single-detached housing in a residential environment comparable in form and appearance to that of Residential Single Detached R-1) development R-1S Residential Small Lot Single Detached High-quality single-detached housing serviced by lanes on a small lot in comprehensively planned and architecturally integrated development cells R-1St Residential Studio Suite District Low-density residential development that is visually compatible with single-detached development and provides for both a principal dwelling unit and a studio suite to be developed on a site R-1E Residential Estate Single Detached Single-detached residential development on large sites R-1AR Residential Single Detached Air Ranch Single-detached residential development on large sites and associated land use activities within the Air Ranch community R-NAR Residential Narrow Lot Air Ranch Single-detached residential development and associated land use activities on sites comparable in size to larger Residential Single Detached District R-1) lots within the Air Ranch community R-2 Residential Low Density Multi-Unit Low-density multi-unit residential development R-3 Residential Medium Density Multi-Unit Medium-density multi-unit residential developments R-3AR Residential Medium Density Multi-Unit Air Ranch Medium density multi-unit residential development and associated land use activities within the Air Ranch community R-MH Residential Manufactured Home Serviced sites for lease or rent for manufactured homes in comprehensively planned communities Mixed-Use Development HMU Heritage Mixed Use Continuation of residential development and allow for certain specialized commercial uses to develop in the form of unique shops, boutiques, professional offices and tourist attractions; the preservation of the historic and unique aesthetic character of the district will be encouraged MUM Mixed-Use Medium Density Medium-density mixed use development, incorporating multifamily development above street-level commercial uses R-MD Residential Mixed Dwelling Wide range of residential development that is compatible with existing Central Business District development and takes into consideration the possible future expansion of the Central Business District; may include a limited range of commercial uses R-MU Residential Mixed Use Detached Laned, low-density mixed-use development, fronting on collector roads, in the form of live/work detached dwellings; this district provides an option for certain specialized commercial uses to develop that are accessory to the principal dwelling. 18 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

36 Table 2.1. continued) Town of Okotoks Land Use Bylaw Designations. Code Designation Description Commercial Development C-CB Central Business Commercial Wide range of commercial uses in the downtown area of Okotoks, with a high-quality, aesthetically pleasing pedestrian environment and a high architectural design standard for buildings C-GATE Gateway Commercial Broad range of high-intensity land uses at the main approaches to the community in a comprehensively planned regional commercial center, with a high-quality and aesthetically pleasing environment conducive to both vehicle and pedestrian movement, and very high architectural design and signage standards due to the visibility of the location C-HWY Highway Commercial Limited range of commercial uses located adjacent to arterial roadways carrying large volumes of traffic C-SC Shopping Centre Commercial Broad range of commercial uses in a comprehensivelyplanned shopping center development, with a highquality, aesthetically pleasing pedestrian environment and a high architectural design standard for buildings C-SD Special Development Commercial Pedestrian-oriented shopping area comprised of a broad range of retail shops, eating establishments and entertainment facilities and which may include residential development in upper floors Industrial Development I-1 Business Industrial Low-intensity retail and entertainment uses, offices and industrial businesses which carry out their operations such that no nuisance factor is created or apparent outside an enclosed building or enclosed area I-1S South Business Industrial Prestige, high-quality light to medium industrial and office development in a comprehensively planned industrial park consistent with the Municipal Development Plan with perimeter parcels developed in a manner that is aesthetically compatible with adjacent land uses and public thoroughfares I-2 General Industrial Wide range of light to medium industrial uses of a manufacturing, processing, assembling or distributing nature I-3 Industrial Wide range of light to medium industrial uses of a manufacturing, processing, assembling or distributing nature Other Areas AD Aerodrome Provide for the movement of aircraft and other facilities directly related to aviation DC Direct Control Areas with land uses under direct control by Council due to their special nature or circumstance EP Environmental Protection Publicly-owned lands with unique scenic and natural landscapes, where development is limited to passive and/or light recreational use, and essential public works PS Public Service Public- and privately-owned cultural, educational, institutional, and recreational uses RD Restricted Development Areas on escarpment lands and adjacent to the Sheep River where development is controlled and regulated UH Urban Holdings Lands that have potential for future urbanized development, considered to be an interim designation Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 19

37 Town of Okotoks Corporate Business Plan The current Corporate Business Plan provides overall respective statements regarding the strategic business direction of the Town for the mandate of the Town Council. This Plan was revised in January 2014 based on the strategic priorities of the Town Council for the mandate. Under the plan, a vision and broad strategies have been established for service delivery under seven strategic directions: 1. Manage community growth 2. Foster economic vitality 3. Provide quality community infrastructure 4. Promote environmental stewardship 5. Provide strong governance 6. Healthy and safe community 7. Maintain organizational excellence Under these areas, several proposed actions were presented for implementation. Most importantly, the Business Plan recognizes the need to develop and implement strategies to manage water supplies and wastewater treatment. This includes identifying innovative water conservation strategies, as well as identifying sustainable regional and sub-regional water supply options. The Business Plan also identifies the need to update the IDP and MDP to meet continuing challenges, coordinate with the MD of Foothills on joint planning efforts, and coordinate with the public to involve residents in all stages of the planning process Town of Okotoks Community Sustainability Plan 2016) The 2016 Okotoks Community Sustainability Plan CSP) presents a living document to guide the Town and members of the community in building a more sustainable and resilient future across economic, environmental, social, and cultural components. Through public engagement, guiding principles for the community were developed: Livable Okotoks Vibrant civic culture and heritage Inclusive neighbourhoods Active lifestyle Environmental stewardship Local economy Six critical steps for action to achieve goals under these principles include the following: Expand water and wastewater systems Support community connections Expand environmental initiatives Focus for the Municipal Development Plan Pilot transit Animate downtown 20 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

38 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 21 Figure 2.7. Town of Okotoks Land Use Bylaw.

39

40 The Plan also details the development of major indicators to evaluate progress related to the guiding principles. It is intended that the CSP is evaluated every three years to assess changes in indicators and determine a new round of critical steps for action Town of Okotoks 2030 Financial Sustainability Plan 2007) The Town of Okotoks 2030 Financial Sustainability Plan, adopted in 2007, provides a strategic perspective on the financial status of the municipal government to 2030, considering current and future needs and requirements in the community and future expected capital expenditures. The intent of this Plan was to ensure that the Town remains fiscally responsible into the future, and provides recommendations to support this goal. The Plan provides an overview of projected fiscal impacts across multiple categories, including general operations including infrastructure), community services, protective services, development services, and corporate support services, and considers senior government transfers and the potential for regional partnerships. The recommendations of the Plan that are relevant to long-term planning and development include the following: Maintaining the policy of prohibiting extension of water and sewer services beyond the corporate boundaries, except as provided in the MDP; Managing stormwater flow entering the Town to maintain pre-development flow rates and characteristics; Implementing strategic utilization of non-traditional funding sources where possible, such as with the funding provided for the Drake Landing Solar Community; Pursuing partnership arrangements with neighbouring communities for the provision of regional services such as EMS and recreation, as well as for the development of regional industrial land; and Pursuing a strategy to ensure that non-residential lands are developed to their highest and best uses, and land use decisions consider optimizing property taxation revenue and local employment where possible. Note that this work was developed assuming that total build-out of Town lands would occur in 2017 for residential lands, 2020 for commercial, and 2022 for industrial. As this assumption has changed, many of the conclusions of this Plan may need to be re-examined for the new managed growth model recently adopted by the Town Other Town policies and plans In addition to the policies and plans detailed above, there are other documents related to the management of land use and growth in the Town of Okotoks. These include: Urban Forest Management Plan 2008) Okotoks Open Spaces Survey Report 2008) Recreational Development Plan 2002) River Valley Management Plan 2003) Flood Plain Policy 2001) Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 23

41 Intermunicipal Lands Study 2007) Economic Business Plan 2010) Long-term coordination of strategic growth by the Town should consider these policies during implementation. This report incorporates elements of these policies and plans as required in the assessment of potential growth strategies into the future Municipal District of Foothills Land Use Policy and Planning The Municipal District of Foothills No. 31 is a rural community encompassing approximately 3,650 square kilometers of unincorporated lands south of the City of Calgary. As the sole jurisdiction bordering Okotoks, any expansion of the Town into the rural areas of the MD of Foothills will require consideration of current plans, policies, and processes that are in place. Some of the relevant plans and policies of MD of Foothills that should be considered by the Town in growth planning include: 2013 MD of Foothills Growth Management Strategy 2010 MD of Foothills Municipal Development Plan MD of Foothills Land Use Bylaw ASPs for locations proximate to the Town of Okotoks, including the Green Haven Estates ASP, the Sandstone Springs ASP, the Wind Walk ASP, and the Highway 2A Industrial H2AI) ASP A map of areas in the MD of Foothills immediately surrounding the Town of Okotoks is provided in Figure 2.8. This map includes the boundaries of ASPs within the area, as well as associated land use definitions from the MD of Foothills Land Use Bylaw MD of Foothills Growth Management Strategy The MD of Foothills recently developed a Growth Management Strategy GMS), which was approved by Council in April of The GMS presents the results of a two-stage effort to solicit feedback from residents regarding their perspectives on desired growth, and develop a strategy and overall policy direction to address future land needs. Overall approaches for managing growth recommended in this Strategy includes: Providing a planning framework for regional and sub-regional growth, including the development of district plans, updates to hamlet ASPs and Intermunicipal Plans, and an investigation of a Transfer of Development Credits system. Preserving rural character and scenic vistas, through mechanisms such as visual impact mitigation, management of natural and rural lands that display regional character, and development of site design guidelines and standards. Supporting agriculture through the identification of key resource lands where agriculture is dominant, measures to discourage conversion and fragmentation of agricultural lands, and management of other types of development in agricultural areas. 24 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

42 Protecting environmentally sensitive areas by identifying critical ecological infrastructure, addressing riparian setbacks, and promoting the importance of conserving landscape connectivity, natural terrain, drainage, and vegetation. Addressing servicing and water requirements by evaluating proposed developments according to municipal costs for servicing, requiring best management practices, ensuring that developers secure adequate water supplies, and collaborating on regional servicing projects. Planning for industrial and commercial development by focusing these projects in specific locations such as the H2AI ASP. The Central District identified in the GMS, which includes the lands surrounding the Town of Okotoks, has been identified as a major area for future development within the MD, and a priority for sub-regional planning. As such, the GMS recommends future coordination of growth planning with municipalities in the area, identification of areas for intensification and infill development, and additional servicing and infrastructure planning MD of Foothills MDP The 2010 MDP developed by the MD of Foothills is a full revision of the first MDP drafted in The Plan provides a series of policies to achieve key community goals in the following areas: Agriculture, focusing on maintaining a sustainable agricultural industry in the MD, and reaffirming that the preservation of agricultural land is a priority for the MD. Environmental Conservation and Open Space, with a focus on Environmentally Sensitive Areas, surface water features, and landscapes of high scenic value. Residential Development, including country residential, cluster residential, and hamlet residential case development. Recreation, including management of Recreational Centres and Facilities, Commercial Recreational Developments, and Municipal Reserves for public open space. Economic Development, with policies relating to commercial and industrial development, natural resource extraction, and home-based businesses. Note that industrial uses in particular will be focused on the Highway 2A corridor identified in the H2AI AASP. Transportation, including roads, the High River Regional Airport and private airstrips, and long-range planning for public transit. Utilities, with policies related to water, wastewater, stormwater, and solid waste servicing and infrastructure. Intermunicipal Relationships, such as Intermunicipal Development Plans, servicing agreements, and other reciprocal planning frameworks MD of Foothills Land Use Bylaw The MD of Foothills Land Use Bylaw areas was adopted in 2007, with revisions to the Bylaw currently under review. The districts delineated in the current Bylaw are provided in Figure 2.8, with a description of the specific districts in Table 2.2. Note that the reference map also Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 25

43 Table 2.2. MD of Foothills Land Use Bylaw Designations Study Area). Code Designation Description A Agriculture Preservation of agricultural lands and facilitation of a broad range of agricultural uses; all lands in MD of Foothills are considered under this designation if not otherwise defined COM-P Commercial Park) Commercial uses considered suitable for a designated commercial park COM-R Commercial Rural) Commercial uses considered suitable for isolated sites COM-HWY Commercial Highway) Commercial uses considered suitable for areas adjacent to a primary or secondary highway CR Country Residential Country residential development with single-family detached units on lots between 2 and 20 acres in size CR-A Country Residential-A Country residential development with single-family detached units on lots between 2 and 20 acres in size; uses must be appropriate for special physical constraints and environmental characteristics present on the site DC Direct Control Areas with land uses under direct control by Council due to their special nature or circumstance IND-N Industrial Natural Resource) Industrial uses related to natural resource extraction on a site determined by the location of the resource IND-P Industrial Park) Industrial uses considered suitable for a designated industrial park R Residential Residential development with fully-serviced lots of sizes between 0.12 and 0.8 acres; single-family detached units are considered permitted uses, while attached units are discretionary uses on the site REC Recreational Provision for a variety of recreational uses on a site-specific discretionary basis includes the location of Municipal and Environmental Reserves identified by the Municipal District. 26 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

44 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 27 Figure 2.8. MD of Foothills Land Use Bylaw.

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46 Green Haven Estates ASP 2006) The Green Haven Estates ASP defines a three-phase residential and recreational Built Green community of approximately 52 hectares abutting the eastern edge of Okotoks, as shown in Figure 2.9. The community will consist of a total of 91 dwellings, including: 56 single-family residential units, 26 duplex units, and 9 triplex units. The area will be serviced by a central water treatment facility, with packaged treatment plants and greywater irrigation to manage wastewater generated on-site, which will be managed by the homeowner s association. Stormwater in the development will be managed in part through the use of a constructed wetland on-site. Figure 2.9. Green Haven Estates Area Structure Plan ASP). Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 29

47 Sandstone Springs ASP 2009) The Sandstone Spring ASP encompasses 162 hectares of land close to the southwestern boundary of the Town of Okotoks, on the south and east sides of Big Rock Trail, as shown in Figure The ASP outlines the development of a residential community in four phases, consisting of a build-out of: 230 residential lots between 0.8 and 2 acres in size; 70 condominium lots for patio homes between 5,000 and 7,000 square feet in size; and a lifestyle centre for the development. The site design will consider and integrate steep slopes and wetlands through recreational trails and open space areas for environmental conservation. Servicing has been a particular obstacle for the development; an objection was made to the Municipal Government Board by the Town of Okotoks about upstream release of wastewater from a centralized on-site system. This led to JPA discussions that resulted in Town agreement to provide servicing for sewage. Additionally, a preliminary certificate issued under the Water Act for use of groundwater wells for drinking water was cancelled by Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development AESRD). This was due in part to a connection between the groundwater wells and surface water sources, and the potential impacts on reserved water sources used by Okotoks. This development project will not be able to commence until a water source is provided. Figure Sandstone Springs Area Structure Plan ASP). 30 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

48 Wind Walk ASP 2010) The Wind Walk ASP defines a three-phase, 458-unit residential/commercial development over approximately 55 hectares to the south of Okotoks along Highway 7, as shown in Figure As defined, this project would include: four proposed civic building sites, including one potential school site; 49 condominiums and 80,300 square feet of commercial space in mixed-use buildings; 35 live/work condominiums; 169 townhouse lots; 60 urban lots 0.12 to 0.21 acres); 112 estate lots 0.18 to 0.32 acres); and 33 country estate lots 0.35 to 0.90 acres). Wastewater servicing for the development will be through a packaged membrane bioreactor, with disposal of reclaimed water through reuse as greywater for irrigation and discharge into soil-based disposal fields. The proponents of Wind Walk are applying for a water licence that would allow them to withdraw water from the Highwood River, treat the water, and pipe it to the development. The Wind Walk ASP has been subject to objections by the Town of Okotoks over potential impacts of the development to transportation systems, groundwater supplies, and municipal facilities and services from increased demand. This has included a series of legal cases regarding whether a challenge to the approval of the ASP by the MD of Foothills could be filed outside of a six-month review period. Figure Wind Walk Area Structure Plan ASP). Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 31

49 Highway 2A Industrial ASP 2010) As shown in Figure 2.12, the Highway 2A Industrial ASP serves as a revision and extension to the Aldersyde ASP 1986) and the earlier Highway 2A Industrial ASP 1995). The intent of the H2AI ASP is to strategically guide development for approximately 3,500 hectares of private land along the Highway 2A corridor to support a regional industrial/commercial employment node. According to the MDP, the MD of Foothills will work to encourage compatible industrial and commercial development to locate in area. Given the location of the H2AI corridor between the Towns of Okotoks and High River, this area has been the focus of a tri-municipal partnership to coordinate infrastructure, servicing, land use, and other municipal policies between the two Towns and the MD of Foothills. The Alberta Foothills Industrial Corridor Association AFICA) is under development as a not-forprofit society between the three communities to oversee joint economic development, and revenue sharing for growth in this area. Long-term water servicing issues have been examined as a potential obstacle to growth in the H2AI ASP area. As groundwater supplies are limited within the area, new development will require locating and receiving licenses for additional supplies. Securing licences in this case remains difficult with the moratorium in place. In the short term, water servicing has been supported by water supplies from the High River Water Treatment Plan acquired through agreements with the Town of High River. Over the long term, for continued industrial development and expansion, new sources of water will be required. Figure Highway 2A Industrial H2AI) Area Structure Plan ASP). 32 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

50 Intermunicipal Planning In addition to the individual land use policies in place in Okotoks and the MD of Foothills, there have been efforts to coordinate intermunicipal planning efforts. The previous MD of Foothills-Town of Okotoks Intermunicipal Development Plan IDP) and the associated Joint Planning Agreement JPA) was developed in The IDP worked addressed growth in the areas surrounding the Town given the finite growth model of the Town at the time. This arrangement was established to ensure that developments with potential cross-boundary impacts could be coordinated and reviewed to reduce potential conflicts. Given the change to a continued growth model and the subsequent negotiations with the MD of Foothills regarding annexation for 60 years of growth, it was determined that a more limited IDP would better suit ongoing dialogue over development between the two municipal governments. This new IDP received hearings in the Town and the MD, and was approved in June Town of Okotoks / MD of Foothills Intermunicipal Development Plan The IDP developed by the Town and the MD of Foothills and approved in June 2016 provides for a limited set of management and review policies for areas of interest to both governments. The area considered by the Plan is shown in Figure 2.13, and provides for three distinct policy areas: Referral Areas. Within the Plan area, all planning proposals considered by the MD of Foothills must be referred to the Town for comment. The Town may also refer planning proposals that would impact the MD, and shall refer proposals in areas within the Town to be established at a later date. Okotoks Growth Corridors. For these locations, applications for subdivision in these areas that propose creating more than a first parcel out of an unsubdivided quarter section will generally not be supported. Processes for expanding these areas are also established if additional areas for the growth of the Town need to be protected. Gateway Areas. Access points to the Town at Highways 2, 2A, and 7 are of particular interest as gateways, and these areas will require additional collaboration regarding joint planning and engagement. The gateway at Highway 2A will require joint design guidelines and transportation strategies to manage access for both municipalities, and planning in the Highway 7 area will coordinate the interface of employment lands and development of joint infrastructure projects and standards. The IDP also includes provisions for dispute resolution and amendments to the Plan. It has been recommended that the Plan be updated after the annexation process pursued by the Town is completed Conclusions This chapter highlights the following key issues which should be considered in the development of a growth strategy for the Town: Impacts of significant regional growth pressures. Expected rates of growth in the Calgary region will continue to increase development pressures on the Town of Okotoks Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 33

51 Figure Town of Okotoks / MD of Foothills Intermunicipal Development Plan. and surrounding communities south of Calgary. These development pressures have been expressed locally through the high rate of growth in Okotoks, including the residential and commercial projects proposed for locations in the MD of Foothills in close proximity to the Town. Shift from constrained growth to responsible growth model. A shift in policy to allow for further urban development at least eight units per gross developable acre) will help manage growth pressures in the community in a much more efficient and sustainable way than through country residential and other forms of low-density developments. Without additional urban land, pressures to convert rural lands to low-density country residential development would increase, making the goals of preserving the character and ecological functions of the regional landscape more difficult. Servicing issues. The shift to a continued growth model provides for a more sustainable means to accommodate regional growth. Planning and development initiatives must now accommodate a new vision for this sustained future growth. In particular, provisions for local servicing and infrastructure, especially regarding drinking water supplies, will need to be addressed. Recent initiatives and ongoing studies of regional servicing have begun to address this need. Any strategic framework for growth will need to be integrated with longterm infrastructure assessments and other studies. 34 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

52 Future revisions to Town planning documents. The Town MDP and the IDP with the MD of Foothills are in need of revision to address future planning policy needs. In particular, both documents will need to be updated to consider areas annexed by the Town, as well as efforts to pursue joint planning at the major gateways identified in the current IDP. Intermunicipal collaboration on growth. Ongoing collaboration between the Town of Okotoks and the MD of Foothills has attempted to accommodate sustainable forms of development in the areas surrounding the Town of Okotoks, while ensuring that the costs and impacts of this development are managed properly. As development pressures continue, the Town and the MD must strive to collaborate on the best approaches to meet future needs while achieving mutual goals in environmental, social, and financial sustainability. Most notably, increasing urban development in the region can be instrumental in meeting the needs of the MD in preserving the rural character and agricultural uses in the landscape. Regional planning initiatives. Coordinating regional servicing through the CRP and other regional partnerships will be instrumental in long-range planning for Okotoks. In addition to the critical needs for regional water servicing solutions, regional transit planning and coordination of growth can assist in maintaining the quality of life and long-term sustainability of the community. To this end, local planning efforts must ensure that they are aligned with the CMP to ensure that the Town maintains its eligibility for participation. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 35

53 36 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

54 3. Projected Land Needs This chapter presents the amount of land necessary to support anticipated population and employment growth in the Town of Okotoks. Required supplies of land have been identified based on an analysis of future population growth and demographic changes, as well as their impacts on the demand for residential, commercial, and industrial lands. These needs have been calculated over 30-year short- to-medium term ) and 60-year long term ) periods. The final results of this analysis are used in the next chapter of this report to evaluate the additional lands required to accommodate future growth. Note that this chapter provides a summary of the methods and results for this analysis. A more comprehensive review is provided in Appendix A, which presents a detailed rationale for the analytical approach, as well as calculations of land demand using alternate assumptions from those presented in this chapter Population Forecast Recent growth trends have shown that Okotoks has accounted for just over 4% of the population growth in the Calgary Region. Based on these trends, the population forecast for this study assumes that Okotoks will continue to capture a share of about 4% of population growth in the Calgary Region over the study s 60-year time horizon. This 4% growth rate reflects a continued share of regional population growth. Although regional planning undertaken by the Calgary Regional Partnership CRP) originally identified a growth rate of 2% for Okotoks, this rate assumed a finite development model based on the supply of developable land in the Town. A review of growth trends suggests this 2% projection underestimates growth pressure in Okotoks, and that a 4% growth rate is in keeping with anticipated demand for housing, services and infrastructure in Okotoks and the surrounding area of the MD of Foothills. Based on the assumed growth rate of 4%, population forecasts were prepared for the shortto-medium term 30-year horizon) and the long term 60-year horizon). The results of this analysis are shown in Table 3.1 and Figure 3.1. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 37

55 Table 3.1. Projected Population Figures, Town of Okotoks, Actual Projected Code 2001 a 2006 a 2011 a 2013 b 2043 c 2073 c Calgary Region 1,026,398 1,170,358 1,319,441 1,388,156 2,187,835 2,765,524 Constant Share of Growth Model Okotoks 11,664 17,145 24,511 27,057 59,044 82,152 Okotoks' share of Calgary Region 1.14% 1.46% 1.86% 1.94% 2.70% 2.97% CRP Growth Model Okotoks 45,083 56,987 Okotoks' share of Calgary Region 2.06% 2.06% Okotoks Household Size a) Population figures for 2001, 2006, and 2011 are drawn from CRP population estimates and Statistics Canada census information b) The 2013 population and household figures are estimates based on the 2011 census figures and the growth rate implied by the 2019 population forecast prepared by the Calgary Regional Partnership for the Calgary Region. c) The 2043 and 2073 population and household figures are our estimates based on the growth rate implied by the 2029, 2039 and 2076 population forecast prepared by the Calgary Regional Partnership for the Calgary Region. Figure 3.1. Projected Population, Town of Okotoks, Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

56 These results include the following major points: Okotoks is forecast to grow by about 55,100 people over the next 60 years, with a population of about 82,150 people by Average incremental growth is anticipated to be 920 people per year. Okotoks is expected to experience a high rate of growth over the next 30 years, averaging about 1,065 people per year from 2013 to Growth in the Town is expected to be lower over the longer term, however, still averaging about 770 people per year from 2043 to Overall, Okotoks is expected to add approximately 23,560 households over the next 60 years, reaching a total of 32,860 households by Note that this reflects smaller household sizes over time Residential Development Needs Projected residential land requirements have been calculated based on a housing demand forecast by unit type i.e. single-detached, attached, and apartment). This forecast reflects the likely density of future residential development in the Town, and is based on population forecasts and on indicators of past residential development trends in Okotoks, the City of Calgary as a whole, and in the suburban areas of the Calgary region Past Residential Development Trends An analysis of historic housing starts by type in Okotoks shows that: Single-detached starts form the primary housing type in Okotoks, accounting for 72.5% of all housing starts from 2004 to The share was even higher 91%) in the most recent five year period. Multifamily starts semi-detached, rows, and apartment units) accounted for 27.5% of all housing starts in Okotoks from 2004 to 2012 although this share was significantly lower over the past five years 9% from 2008 to 2012). Apartment unit starts account for about 60% of multifamily starts from 2004 to 2012, and accounted for 16.5% of all starts. The balance of starts were semidetached and row/townhouse units. There have been no apartment starts in Okotoks in the past five years, however. Historic housing starts by type for the entire City of Calgary and for suburban Calgary were also analyzed to establish an indicator of the potential upper limit on the multifamily share of housing starts that could be expected in Okotoks over the very long term. This analysis shows that: Single-detached units accounted for about 54% of total housing starts in the City of Calgary and 63% of total housing starts in Suburban Calgary from 2005 to 2012; Multifamily starts accounted for about 46% of all starts in Calgary and about 37% in Suburban Calgary over the eight-year period; Attached housing starts i.e., semi-detached and row/townhouse units) accounted for about 17% of all starts in the City of Calgary and 16% in Suburban Calgary from 2005 to 2012; and Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 39

57 Apartment unit starts accounted for about 29% of total starts in the City of Calgary and 20% in Suburban Calgary in the past 8 years Projected Demand by Housing Type The estimated growth in population and households suggests that total housing demand in Okotoks under a constant regional share of growth will average about 447 units per year from , and 338 units per year from In total, this would represent an increase of approximately 23,600 housing units over the entire 60-year period. Table 3.2 presents the housing demand forecast by unit type. This demand would break down as follows: Single-detached units remain the primary housing type in Okotoks during the entire forecast period, however the share of new residential development will decline gradually from 70% in the short-to-medium term to about 62.5% on average in the long term. A total of about 15,800 single detached units are projected to be required for the entire forecast period. Attached units will account for about 10% of total housing demand in the short-to-medium term, and will increase gradually to account for about 12.5% of the demand by A total of about 2,600 attached units are projected to be required for the entire forecast period. Apartments units will account for a higher share of housing demand over time, increasing from a share of about 20% over the short-to-medium term to a share of about 25% over the long term. A total of about 5,200 apartment units are projected to be required for the entire forecast period. Under the current CRP projections, total growth would be only 13,700 units, less than 60% of the growth identified under the constant share estimates. Additional land demand estimates using these projections can be found in Appendix A. Table 3.2. Housing Demand Forecast, Town of Okotoks, Average Annual Demand Total Demand Number of New Households ,563 Proportion of Units Single Detached 70.0% 62.5% 67.0% Attached Row & Semi-Detached) 10.0% 12.5% 11.0% Apartment 20.0% 25.0% 22.0% Housing Demand, in units Single Detached ,790 Attached Row & Semi-Detached) ,591 Apartment ,182 Total , Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

58 Average Net Density of New Residential Development The average density of new net residential development was determined based on a review of the Town s existing Land Use Bylaw, the size of existing residential lots in Okotoks, and required urban density targets for the Calgary Region as identified in the Calgary Metropolitan Plan CMP). For the purposes of calculating net required lands, the following values were used: Single-detached units: 25 units per hectare, based on an average lot size of 395 sq. m./lot; Attached units: 42 units per hectare, as per base density for attached housing in the Town s Land-Use Bylaw R-3 and R-3AR Land-Use Districts); and Apartment units: 87 units per hectare, based on a midpoint between the base density of 75 units per hectare without underground parking) and the maximum density of 98 units per hectare with underground parking) based on the Town s Land-Use Bylaw R-3 and R-3AR Land-Use Districts). Overall, these values were developed to achieve consistency with residential density targets in the CRP over the long term. Note that assuming the distribution of single-family detached versus attached and multifamily units as given, obtaining these net density targets under current zoning will require a breakdown of housing lots such as: 32% R-1 lots single-family residential lots, ~525 sq. m./lot) 32% R-1N lots single-family narrow residential lots, ~375 sq. m./lot) 37% R-1S lots single-family residential lots, ~300 sq. m./lot) Therefore, achieving CMP growth targets, even in the long term, will require zoning for smaller urban lots within the Town Projected Net Residential Land Requirements Projected net residential land requirements based on the housing demand forecasts and high average density estimates for new residential development are provided in Table 3.3. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 41

59 Table 3.3. Projected Net Residential Land Requirements, Town of Okotoks, Overall Average Annual Land Requirements ha) Single Detached Attached Row & Semi-Detached) Apartment TOTAL Total Land Requirements ha) Single Detached Attached Row & Semi-Detached) Apartment TOTAL These calculations indicate the following: Net developable residential land requirements will average about 14 hectares per year during 2013 to 2043 and 10 hectares per year between 2043 and This represents a total residential land requirement of 433 hectares in the shortto-medium term 2013 to 2043) and 310 hectares in the long term 2043 to 2073), or 743 hectares over the entire forecast period. New single-detached homes will account for the largest share of the net land requirements throughout the entire forecast period, requiring 371 hectares in the short-to-medium term ) and 251 hectares in the long term 2043 to 2073). This yields a total net land demand of 621 hectares of land for new single detached development during the entire forecast period, or about 84% of total net residential land demand. New attached homes will require about 32 hectares in the short-to-medium term 2013 to 2043) and 30 hectares over the long term 2043 to 2073), totalling about 62 hectares of net developable land for this housing type over the entire forecast period. New apartment units will require about 31 hectares in the short-to-medium term 2013 to 2043) and 29 hectares over the long term 2043 to 2073), or 60 hectares of net developable land over the entire forecast period. As noted previously, the full report in Appendix A provides alternate net land demand numbers for the CRP population growth scenarios, as well as lower estimates for residential population density. Given the current growth policies of the Town, these projections have been used in evaluating expected future annexation needs. 42 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

60 3.3. Commercial Development Needs Future land requirements for commercial development were determined based on an analysis of the existing commercial situation in Okotoks, the primary trade area for commercial space and a forecast of future commercial floor space growth Current Commercial Situation As of June 2013, there was a total of 1,663,749 square feet of commercial floor space in Okotoks, including retail, service, and office space. Commercial space is concentrated mainly in the Olde Towne shopping district and in the shopping centres along Northridge and Southridge Drive and Highway 7. The Town also includes several regional scale retailers, including Canadian Tire, Wal-Mart Supercentre, Home Depot, Winners, Costco, Staples, and others. As a major retail and service centre in the southern part of the Calgary Region, Okotoks serves a market that is much larger than just the Town s boundaries. The primary trade area includes the Town of Okotoks, Black Diamond, Foothills No. 31, High River, Nanton, Vulcan County, and Turner Valley, but for most retailers) excludes the southern part of the City of Calgary which is currently well-served with retail and service businesses. As of 2013 population, this trade area has an estimated population of about 73,000. Note that additional customers may be drawn from a much broader secondary trade area that could include parts of southern Calgary and other communities outside the primary trade area. For the purposes of this analysis, projections of future commercial space needs for this secondary trade area are assumed to be incorporated into projections for the primary trade areas Commercial Floor Space Demand The existing floor space inventory and patterns of commercial development in Okotoks generally indicates that there is approximately 23 square feet of retail, service, and office floor space in Okotoks per primary trade area resident, given existing supply. Projections of future commercial demand will likely be impacted by the following characteristics: Okotoks retains almost all of its local convenience retail and personal services demand; the community has a large array of locally-oriented businesses suggesting little leakage of convenience purchases. Okotoks likely draws a significant share, but not all, of the surrounding primary trade area s convenience retail potential. Okotoks retains a share of its regional/destination and comparison shopping demand. However, primary trade area residents likely export some of their regional destination and comparison shopping demand to Calgary shopping centres because of additional supplies of regional and specialty retail. Okotoks probably retains much of its locally-oriented office demand, but some of the demand for medical/dental, insurance, accounting, legal, and other locallyoriented office businesses is likely exported to Calgary. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 43

61 Future Commercial Floor Space Potential The potential amount of commercial floor space growth in Okotoks is calculated based on population forecasts for the primary trade area, and an estimate of supportable commercial floor space per capita ratio to the primary trade area population. It is assumed that Okotoks will continue to support roughly 23 square feet 2.1 square meters) of commercial space per primary trade area resident over the long term. This assumption is based on a review of existing demand and a consideration of factors, including: The retention of the current share of retail and service expenditures, Limited anticipated growth/expansion of communities in the primary trade area beyond current predictions, The maintenance of existing trade area boundaries, A convenient regional location that will see some Okotoks businesses continue to benefit from inflow spending from a broad secondary trade area, and A relatively constant leakage rate over time. Table 3.4 provides the resulting forecast. These figures indicate that the commercial floor space inventory in Okotoks will be expected to grow from 1.7 million square feet 155,000 square meters) in 2013 to about 4.4 million square feet 409,000 square meters) in 2073, which represents growth of about 2.7 million square feet 254,000 square meters) of additional commercial space. Table 3.4. Projected Commercial Land Demand, Town of Okotoks, Commercial Floor Space Per capita ratio sq. ft.) Supportable commercial floor space sq. ft.) 1,663,749 3,341,791 4,397, Total Additional commercial floorspace sq.ft.) 1,678,042 1,055,298 2,733,340 Commercial FAR Net commercial land required ha) Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

62 Net Projected Commercial Land Requirements Assuming that the projected commercial growth will occur with a 0.35 Floor Area Ratio FAR), with all other assumptions as previously specified, projected net commercial land requirements are given in Table 3.4. Net commercial land requirements are estimated to be about 45 hectares in the short-to-medium term ) and 28 hectares in the longterm ), totaling 73 hectares over the entire 60-year forecast period Industrial Development Needs Future land requirements for industrial development were determined based on an analysis of the existing industrial situation in Okotoks, a review of historic trends in industrial floor space growth, and forecasts for future industrial growth Historic and Current Industrial Situation As of June 2013, there is a total of about 845,000 square feet 78,500 square meters) of industrial floor space in Okotoks. This floor space is mainly concentrated in the Okotoks Business Park and the Southbank Business Park, both along 32nd Street. There is also additional floor space and vacant industrial land located to the east of the Town near Highway 2 and Highway 2A. A review of historic trends in industrial floor space growth suggests that growth averaged about 60,000 square feet per year over the past decade. However, a lack of serviced land available for development may have previously constrained the pace of industrial floor space growth Projected Industrial Floor Space Demand Future industrial floor space growth in Okotoks is expected to be similar to historic trends. Projections of demand considered the following regional characteristics: The share of regional employment in the Town will likely remain stable over time. The City of Calgary will continue to capture the largest share of the regional employment growth. The vast majority of industrial development in the Calgary Region will be accommodated by vacant industrial lands in the North/Northeast and Southeast sectors of the City of Calgary. Industrial land is available just to the east of Okotoks along Highway 2A within the H2AI ASP in the MD of Foothills. As mentioned in the previous chapter, an ongoing trilateral partnership with Okotoks, High River and the MD of Foothills is working toward the management of new industrial growth in this area. Industrial businesses that require convenient access to the regional highway system, such as distribution centres and logistics companies, will likely locate to this area. Based on this competitive context, industrial growth has been projected at a high of 60,000 square feet 5,600 square meters) per year. This is consistent with average annual industrial floor space growth in Okotoks over the past ten years, adjusting for constraints due to a lack of serviced industrial land in the Town over this time period. This assumes that Okotoks continues to primarily attract industrial businesses that serve the needs of the Town and other nearby communities. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 45

63 Should Okotoks role in the regional industrial market evolve over time, and the Town is able to attract businesses that historically have located in other parts of the region, growth could significantly outpace the high scenario. To attract a larger share of the regional industrial market, Okotoks would likely need to offer vacant, serviced industrial land in a location that offers convenient access to the regional highway system Projected Net Industrial Land Requirements Projected industrial land requirements are provided in Table 3.5. For the entire 60-year study period, under the assumption that industrial developments would require a 0.30 FAR, a net total of 112 hectares of industrial land would be required. This figure is subject to change based on the potential for attracting new industry to current serviced lands within the Town, as well as new areas identified for annexation. Table 3.5. Projected Industrial Land Demand, Town of Okotoks, Total Annual industrial floor space increase sq.ft.) 60,000 60,000 60,000 Industrial FAR Annual net industrial land required ha) Total net industrial land required ha) Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

64 3.5. Gross Land Demand Estimates The net figures calculated for new residential, commercial, and industrial development only incorporate the area of the respective lots for development. Determining the amount of gross land required to support required development requires that other uses of land within a development be incorporated into the calculation. Table 3.6 provides scale-up factors to determine total land requirements for residential, commercial, and industrial development. In this case, it is assumed that additional land would be required for: roads and other rights-of-way; municipal and school reserves; and stormwater management. Existing areas within subdivisions in the Town of Okotoks were evaluated to determine midrange values for these categories. These calculations assume that, as per current policies in the MDP, industrial developments will provide payment in lieu for open space and municipal reserves, which would then be shifted to residential areas in the community. These values are used in Chapter 4 to evaluate requirements for land for annexation to meet demands. Table 3.6. Gross-up Factors for Land Demand, by Type, Town of Okotoks. Land Use Classification Category Residential Commercial Industrial Roads and other rights-of-way 20% 25% 15% Municipal / School Reserves 10% 5% - Stormwater management 5% 5% 5% Total 35% 35% 20% Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 47

65 3.6. Conclusion A summary of the land requirements by land use type are provided in Table 3.7. From the projections provided in this chapter, there appears to be considerable demand for developable lands predicted for the next 60 years. The final outcomes for the Town will depend on whether sufficient supply will exist in the area to meet these needs. Chapter 4 will address current and required land supplies in more detail, and will include estimates of the existing lands and annexation areas that would be required to meet future demand. Table 3.7. Summary of Net Land Demand in hectares), Town of Okotoks, Total Total Residential Demand Single Detached Attached Row & Semi-Detached) Apartment Commercial Demand Industrial Demand Total Net Land Required If this demand is not managed by the Town, there will be significant impacts for real estate markets, development patterns, and the area-wide economy as a whole. Most notable would be potential population growth and associated housing demand. While the predictions in this report exceed the previous population cap for the Town, this pressure to accommodate more residents will likely exist even if Okotoks limits future development. Without additional land supplies at urban densities, development pressures in the MD of Foothills and surrounding communities will likely increase further, and likely result in more country residential and other forms of low density development. Constrained real estate markets in the area would also increase housing prices within Okotoks and reduce affordability for potential residents. Many of the assumptions in this analysis can have significant impacts on land demand estimates. Future policies and conditions may alter these assumptions and change projected land demand. Examples would include: Shifts in the residential building type mix, such as a greater focus on multifamily residential units; Zoning that supports lower residential development densities to address future market demands for larger lots; and Servicing agreements that would allow for additional residential development within the MD of Foothills that address demand. Ongoing monitoring should be performed assess the characteristics of future development and growth, to ensure these assumptions align with outcomes. 48 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

66 4. Land Supply Assessment The evaluation in Chapter 3 presents the estimated demand for land to support the growth of Okotoks to the year This amount of land will be required to address growth pressures within the community while maintaining favourable market conditions. Without additional supplies of land to accommodate this demand, it is likely that this scarcity will affect the price of land and their availability for growth over time. This chapter provides a summary of the land supplies for the Town of Okotoks in accordance with the continued growth model adopted by the Town Council. The summary includes: A review of current vacant lands within the boundaries of the Town of Okotoks, including serviced and unserviced lots, as well as land that has not yet been subdivided; An assessment of the amount of gross land required beyond existing land supplies to support growth over the next 30 and 60 years, including required institutional and regional land uses; and An evaluation of current unincorporated lands within the MD of Foothills which may be targets for future annexation, considering both the suitability of land for development based on environmental factors, and the priority for lands based on desirable qualities for new development. The output of this analysis is an estimated target for future gross land development over time, as well as general recommendations for new development. This information will be used to develop a series of recommended areas for future annexations to meet land supply needs, detailed in Chapter Available Land Supplies The immediate source of land to meet short- and long-term development needs in the Town of Okotoks is undeveloped land within the boundaries of the community. This can include: existing lots that have been subdivided and serviced; and undeveloped land which will be subdivided as part of future projects. To provide an inventory of existing land available for development, a review was conducted of current property in the Town, based on property assessment data and recent aerial photos showing site improvements. In cases of unserviced land that has not been subdivided into Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 49

67 lots, estimates of the yield of lots in new developments were obtained from proposed site plans or using lot size estimates for the community, as of July A summary of the current inventory of land is provided in Table 4.1 for all land use classes. A detailed breakdown of housing units by type is illustrated in Table 4.2, while details on the commercial and industrial capacity are provided in Table 4.3. Table 4.1. Stock of Developable Lands, Town of Okotoks. Residential Units Single Detached* Attached Row & Semi-Detached) Apartment Potential Stock units/floor space) 3,771 units 3,256 units 160 units 355 units Commercial Land Area 361,634 sq m Industrial Land Area 851,157 sq m * includes 1,352 units in D Arcy Ranch projected for long-term development Table 4.2. Dwelling Unit Yields from Developable Residential Lands, Town of Okotoks. Source Units Units on Surveyed Lots 602 Estimated Units on Unsurveyed Lands 3,169 Mountainview - unsurveyed Phase 3 46 Phase 4 51 Phase 5 50 Phases Northeast Okotoks ASP R R-1N 290 R-1AR 30 Mixed-Use - Lot 1 80 Mixed-Use - Lot 2 87 Mixed-Use - Lot 3 97 Mixed-Use - Lot 4 91 Cimarron Estates R-1E 92 Cimarron Springs R-1 66 Wedderburn Lands Single-detached 370 Attached / semi-detached 160 D'Arcy Ranch Single-detached* 1,352 * Available for long-term 30+ year) land supplies. + Caption 50 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

68 Table 4.3. Yields from Developable Commercial/Industrial Lands, Town of Okotoks. Source Floor Area sq m) Lot Area ha) Total Commercial Area 139, Total Industrial Area 255, Northeast Okotoks ASP Mixed-Use - Lot 1 2, Mixed-Use - Lot 2 3, Mixed-Use - Lot 3 3, Mixed-Use - Lot 4 3, Wedderburn Lands Commercial 33, North Gateway Centre Area 6 19, Area 7 10, Area 8 10, Area 9 21, Gateway Commercial Area 19, Central Industrial Area 33, Southbank Industrial Area Commercial 11, Industrial 221, For residential areas, the data collected suggests that there is the capacity to accommodate approximately 3,771 new housing units on current lands in the town in 2013, with about 86% of these units as single-family detached housing. In the case of commercial and industrial area within the Town, current supplies indicate that approximately 139,000 square meters 1.5 million square feet) of commercial floor space can be accommodated on current lands within the town. There is also a significant amount of industrial land available, primarily in the Southbank Industrial Area; about 221,000 square meters almost 2.4 million square feet) of floor space could be accommodated in current areas. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 51

69 4.2. Land Requirements Considering these calculations, there is still a significant shortfall of developable lands over the identified planning horizon. This is especially true with regards to available residential land for the projected increase in population. Table 4.4 provides the calculations of the gross area for land requirements to meet needs identified in Chapter 3. The following assumptions were used in calculating these figures: Over the 30- and 60-year planning horizons used in this analysis, it was assumed that intensification in existing areas would provide 10% of the total land required within the Town itself. This addresses targets by the Calgary Regional Partnership CRP) to encourage intensification within existing urban areas, while considering that the Town will have a more limited area available for more intensive development. With the exception of the D Arcy Ranch lands not considered for short-term growth in the initial analysis), existing supply was assumed to meet demand for the period. Calculations are based on single-use developments, with no mixed-use assumed in the breakdown between land use classes. It was also assumed that for each 30-year period, additional lands would be required for uses to support new residential, commercial, and industrial development. This includes: Community uses, such as elementary schools, churches, daycares, and other services 10% of developable lands in residential areas); High schools ~10 hectares per 30-year planning period); Other public service uses ~10 hectares per 30-year period); and Open space and green space, including regional parks and golf courses ~50 hectares per 30-year period). The final calculations indicate the following: For residential uses, approximately 914 hectares of land will be required over the period, 81% of which would be devoted to single-family detached uses. About 447 hectares of this would be required within the first 30 years, with 298 hectares required between 2043 and New commercial areas would require about 75 hectares of land, with 24 hectares required in the first 30 years and an additional 51 hectares between 2043 and Industrial lands currently available will be able to accommodate identified growth within the next 30 years, with a further 34 hectares required from As noted in Chapter 3, this figure may increase if additional industrial growth is aggressively pursued. Supplementary uses identified above will require an additional 140 hectares of land over the 60-year study period. In total, it is estimated that the Town of Okotoks will require an additional 623 hectares within the next 30 years, with a further 541 hectares necessary to support growth over a 60-year period. 52 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

70 Table 4.4. Sources of Land for Projected Development, Town of Okotoks. Total Net Demand Less Intensification Less Existing Supply Net Demand Gross Land Required Required Land Supply, Residential Area Single Detached Attached Row & Semi-Detached) Apartment Commercial Land Area Industrial Land Area Other Uses 70 TOTAL Required Land Supply, Residential Area Single Detached Attached Row & Semi-Detached) Apartment Commercial Land Area Industrial Land Area Other Uses 70 TOTAL Required Land Supply, Total Residential Area Single Detached Attached Row & Semi-Detached) Apartment Commercial Land Area Industrial Land Area Other Uses 140 TOTAL ,163 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 53

71 4.3. Annexation Land Suitability Assessment Given the estimates of gross land requirements to support projected growth to 2073, it is necessary to identify the most appropriate and efficient lands to support additional growth. To guide recommendations for annexation, land was evaluated for residential, industrial, and commercial uses according to two primary classifications: 1. Environmental vulnerability, which includes characteristics that define whether development on identified lands will impact ecological or landscape functions, or would require significant modification of the natural landscape to be feasible. This would include indicators such as soil stability measures, natural land cover, and the suitability of lands for agriculture. These items are assumed to be consistent across all land use types. 2. Development priority, which includes characteristics that would make the siting of development in an area more or less desirable. This includes such items as the proximity to transportation nodes and infrastructure, fragmentation of ownership, and proximity to specific land uses. Different values are provided for residential, commercial, and industrial land uses. As a final step, the environmental vulnerability and development priority layers are combined to provide a final overall suitability map layer for each class. These maps are used in the final selection of annexation lands for specific uses Environmental Vulnerability The factors involved with the vulnerability of land to the impacts of development from an environmental and ecological perspective are provided in Table 4.5, including the weights used in the overall score indicating the relative importance to achieving key goals. These variables have been drawn from key policies in existing land use policies from the Town of Okotoks, as well as other factors likely to be important for overall sustainability. Table 4.5. Environmental Vulnerability Factors. Indicator Weight Soil Stability 250 Soil Stability buffer from top/toe of slope) 150 Wetlands and drainage features 200 Patches of natural land cover 100 Patches of natural land cover with high connectivity 50 High quality agricultural lands 50 Minimally fragmented agricultural lands 50 Surface water buffer) 200 Location in river valley 150 Existing restricted development land use designation Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

72 The combined measure for the entire study area is provided in Figure 4.1. This map reinforces several important points to consider for development within potential annexation areas: Physical geography will be an important factor in determining areas for new development. Locations such as sites around the Sandstone Coulee and the edges of the Sheep River valley escarpment may be severely constrained for new development. There are a considerable number of wetlands and other natural drainage features in the area, including in areas that will be appropriate for new development. Although maintaining quality agricultural land is important to consider in allocating areas for new growth, this may not be as important of a factor in the local area, given overall growth pressures and fragmentation of lands in certain areas. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 55

73 Figure 4.1. Environmental Vulnerability Score, Study Area 56 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

74 Development Priority Factors which were incorporated into the attractiveness for distinct types of development to be sited in specific locations are provided in Table 4.6. As with the suitability score, weights are provided for each land use class to indicate the relative importance of certain characteristics on whether a site is appropriate for new development. Weights represent two different types of characteristics: 1. Push factors, with weights that are less than zero, indicate areas where certain types of development are less likely to locate and are pushed out ), such as residential areas close to busy highways or industrial areas close to residential sites. 2. Pull factors, with weights greater than zero, indicate areas where development is more likely to locate due to favourable conditions, such as industrial areas close to transportation nodes or residential areas close to green space Table 4.6. Development Priority Factors. Weights Indicator Residential Commercial Industrial Proximity measures Transportation node Major highway Arterial road Railway line Water infrastructure system Wastewater infrastructure system Wastewater treatment plant Stormwater infrastructure system Residential land uses Commercial land uses Industrial land uses Open space Wells Pipelines High-quality agricultural lands Area measures Parcel size / aggregation favouring unfragmented tenure) Undeveloped lands Airport noise zones Airport height restriction Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 57

75 The combined development priority scores are given by land use type, with residential scores in Figure 4.2, commercial scores in Figure 4.3, and industrial scores in Figure 4.4. These maps suggest general concepts for siting specific land uses in potential annexation areas: Residential development would be strongly favoured for areas in locations to the north of the current Town boundary, as well as areas between the current Town boundary and the Sandstone Coulee. This is due in part to the location of existing infrastructure and servicing, separation from current and future industrial activities, and proximity to existing residential and open space uses on the north end of the Town. Development would be highly discouraged from areas to the southeast, given proximity to industrial uses and highways. Commercial development would be strongly favoured for areas to the south of Highway 7, close to potential transportation nodes and existing infrastructure. Additionally, areas to the north of the Town, especially areas close to Highways 2 and 2A would be favourable locations for siting new commercial areas. Industrial development would be best suited for areas to the south and southeast of the Town, due to the proximity to existing industrial uses in the H2AI corridor area and in the southeast corner of the Town. The availability of infrastructure would be extremely limiting for industrial development in other areas. Additionally, dispersed country residential subdivisions in the MD of Foothills would likely be impacted by siting new industrial development in many areas close to the Town. 58 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

76 Figure 4.2. Development Priority, Residential Uses. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 59

77 Figure 4.3. Development Priority, Commercial Uses. 60 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

78 Figure 4.4. Development Priority, Industrial Uses. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 61

79 Overall Suitability Overall suitability of development for each land use type is calculated by overlaying the environmental vulnerability score with the development priority estimated for each land use class. For the purposes of this analysis, both scores are normalized and given equal weighting in the final classification. For this analysis, suitability for residential uses is provided in Figure 4.5, while commercial and industrial suitability scores are presented in Figures 4.6 and 4.7, respectively. These results indicate the following: Optimal directions for suitable development are not significantly different from those recommended by the development priority maps, although constraints will exist for development in certain locations. The potential for development will be severely constrained by physical geography in certain areas. The most notable barriers for future directions of growth will be the Sandstone Coulee system to the west, and the escarpment of the river valley to the southeast of the Town. Although directions to the north and northeast of the Town would appear to be ideal for future development, significant wetlands and drainage features will have an impact on the availability of lands in these areas. 62 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

80 Figure 4.5. Overall Suitability Residential Uses. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 63

81 Figure 4.6. Overall Suitability, Commercial Uses. 64 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

82 Figure 4.7. Overall Suitability Industrial Uses. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 65

83 4.4. Conclusion The analysis of land suitability provides a complete picture of the Town s available land supply. The following considerations regarding land supply and demand have been identified based on findings from this analysis, and are incorporated in the development of growth options outlined in Chapter 5. Needs for additional land through annexation. Although there are developable lands remaining within the Town of Okotoks, including blocks of unserviced land, long-term projections indicate that new land will be required to meet market demands. This is especially true if the D Arcy Ranch lands are not developed over the short term, as expected. Residential land demands. An additional 3,771 housing units can be sited on lands within the town, between serviced lots and unserviced lands. Even then, residential land will likely form the greatest proportion of new annexed areas, with an additional 914 hectares projected as being required over the next 60 years. This is primarily in the form of land for single-family homes, which will make up 81% of the gross area. Intensification targets. CRP intensification targets advocate that existing neighbourhoods within the Town be redeveloped to higher densities to accommodate additional development. This will likely include some provision of denser development within the Heritage Okotoks downtown, as well as intensification projects in other neighbourhoods over time. Area Redevelopment Plan ARPs) should be explored in certain neighbourhoods over time as a means of supporting these efforts with intensification. Commercial land demands. Commercial development will require significantly less land supply than new residential uses, with a total of 49 hectares required beyond existing lands available for use. While some of this demand will be for auto-oriented commercial developments with highway access, commercial development should also be integrated into future residential developments. Industrial land demands. Industrial land demand comparable to historical trends can be met by current land supplies over the next 30-year period, with about 27 hectares required for a 60-year period. Note that this is strongly dependent on local factors: an aggressive Town policy for industrial development may increase land demands, for example. Directions for growth. With respect to potential directions for annexation, directions to the north and southwest would be ideal for new residential and neighbourhood-oriented commercial uses given the factors assessed. Industrial and more highway-oriented commercial uses would be best suited for areas along Highway 7, to the south and southeast of the Town. 66 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

84 5. Options for Growth From the gross land requirements for annexed land and the evaluation of preferential areas for annexation outlined in Chapter 4, a growth concept can be developed to delineate the lands necessary for growth in the Town of Okotoks. This concept outlines areas which would be required for new development over the next 30 and 60 years. This chapter provides an outline of the growth concept for future annexation by the Town of Okotoks to address projected population and employment growth. This includes: an overall perspective of the growth concept, including estimates of resulting land supplies; and a specific description of selections of annexation land. This delineation and the assessment of impacts in Chapter 6 can be used as a basis to inform future decision-making regarding annexation by the Town of Okotoks Assumptions The suitability score maps developed in Chapter 4 were used as a basis for outlining new areas for annexation to meet land demand. Other assumptions involved with creating the conceptual annexation areas in this analysis include: Contiguity. One of the most important considerations in the creation of these options is the continuity of development in the area. All efforts will be made to ensure that new development is contiguous with existing development, especially denser, serviced urban development. Minimum urban densities. Recommended annexation areas are outlined to meet targets for density described in the Calgary Municipal Plan CMP) over time, with long-term residential densities of at least eight dwelling units per gross developable acre. Corridor development. Annexation areas will require servicing by major transportation routes. Denser levels of development should be arranged along these corridors to support transit and other transportation alternatives, as well as opportunities for commercial development where practical. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 67

85 Nodal development. New residential and commercial development should be designed to provide attractive, walkable mixed-use nodes that support future transit and the efficient provisioning of infrastructure and services. This will most likely be at the intersection of major transportation corridors, especially those with significant corridor development. Balanced north-south development. The Okotoks Municipal Development Plan MDP) identifies that development should occur evenly north and south of the Sheep River. When possible, new annexation areas will be recommended that balance development in these two directions, and that promote access to the river and its associated pedestrian corridors. Existing MD of Foothills development. Unless required for contiguity, existing country residential development in the MD of Foothills will not be incorporated into the Town through annexation. Incorporation of future MD of Foothills projects. The Wind Walk and Sandstone Springs Area Structure Plans ASPs), as well as the Gold Medal development to the south of Okotoks, represent development at the edge of the Town in response to regional growth pressures. The Town should work to incorporate these areas, ensure that they are serviced in a sustainable and efficient way, and provide for greater densities of development where possible Overview of Growth Concept The overall concept for growth over the 30- and 60-year time horizons for this growth study is provided in Figure 5.1. This includes: 30-year Residential Areas. These areas comprise the locations required for residential development within the next 30 years, as well as 80% of the additional commercial lands required for the same period. 60-year Residential Area. The 60-year residential areas include locations required to accommodate further residential growth and 80% of additional commercial growth) to Highway Commercial / Industrial Areas. Highway commercial and industrial areas include all industrial areas and 20% of the commercial areas required to Gateway Areas. Gateway annexation areas are locations selected to permit management of transportation corridors into the Town Highways 2, 2A, and 7), and provide municipal boundaries after annexation that follow barriers in the landscape. Land use management in these areas would follow current designations, although more intensive development may be allowed. IDP Annexation Areas. The Campground Lands are identified for annexation in this Study. This site was identified within the previous IDP as being a target for future annexation, but has not yet been brought into the Town. In addition to these areas, other features are also included in the concept: Major Corridors. These new or upgraded streets and highways represent major routes to and through proposed annexation areas. These areas should be the focus for denser forms of development, including mixed-use development, and should be planned to allow for future transit opportunities. 68 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

86 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 69 Figure Year Growth Concept, Town of Okotoks.

87

88 Major Nodes. Major nodes should be developed at points where corridors intersect. Three potential nodes have been identified as part of this analysis: 32nd St E / 338 Ave E, 46 St E / 338 Ave E, and 32nd St E / Highway 7. For the purposes of this concept, quarter-sections cornering onto each node will receive an equal share of new neighbourhood commercial demand over time. Transportation Connections. There are certain key connections in the transportation system that will likely need to be addressed as part of long-range annexation planning. Note that all of these connections in the concept involve provincial highways. As such, Alberta Transportation must be involved in long-term planning for upgrades in these areas. General Location for Water Reservoir. Of the new infrastructure required for the expansion of urban areas through annexation, it is expected that the siting of a new water reservoir will likely be the most complex, and will require more coordination to incorporate into development planning. The general location identified in Figure 5.1 is sited at a high point for the surrounding areas, and can provide sufficient elevation for water storage. Although this area is located in a 60-year growth area, it should be considered for acquisition within 30 years to support the required water supply. A breakdown of all of the specific lands included in this concept are provided in Table 5.1, including the expected yield of developable lands in each area. Lands are excluded from the stock of developable lands as follows: Areas with surface water are excluded, as well as lands within a 30m buffer of surface water, wetlands, and drainage features; Steep slopes are removed from the analysis, including buffers within 24 meters of these areas; A buffer of 15 meters from arterials is excluded from developable lands; and Areas with height limitations from the Okotoks Aerodrome are excluded. In total, it is expected that 1,293 hectares of developable land could be acquired to meet needs for expansion over a 60-year period: 1,246 hectares of residential and neighbourhood commercial lands, and 47 hectares of highway commercial / industrial lands. An additional 243 hectares of developable land would also be included as part of gateway annexations that would not contribute to meeting long-term growth targets. This may be used to support additional growth, or accommodate unforeseen challenges with developing identified areas. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 71

89 Table 5.1. Proposed Annexation Areas. Quarter Section Dev. Area ha) Dwelling Units Commercial Floor Space sq m) Residential / Neighbourhood Commercial Areas 30-year) QS-NE SEC-16 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER ,721 QS-NE SEC-19 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER QS-NE SEC-24 TWP-020 RGE-01 MER QS-NE SEC-33 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER ,721 QS-NE SEC-34 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER ,721 QS-NW SEC-15 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER ,721 QS-NW SEC-16 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER QS-NW SEC-20 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER QS-NW SEC-34 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER ,721 QS-SE SEC-04 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER ,721 QS-SE SEC-19 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER QS-SE SEC-24 TWP-020 RGE-01 MER QS-SW SEC-03 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER ,721 QS-SW SEC-04 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER QS-SW SEC-20 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER TOTAL ,809 82,045 Residential / Neighbourhood Commercial Areas 60-year) QS-NE SEC-03 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER QS-NE SEC-04 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER QS-NE SEC-25 TWP-020 RGE-01 MER QS-NW SEC-03 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER QS-NW SEC-35 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER ,721 QS-SE SEC-03 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER ,721 QS-SE SEC-25 TWP-020 RGE-01 MER QS-SW SEC-02 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER ,721 QS-SW SEC-24 TWP-020 RGE-01 MER QS-SW SEC-35 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER QS-NW SEC-26 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER TOTAL ,986 35,162 Highway Commercial / Industrial Areas QS-NE SEC-15 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER ,021 TOTAL , Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

90 Table 5.1 continued) Proposed Annexation Areas. Quarter Section Dev. Area ha) Dwelling Units Commercial Floor Space sq m) Gateway Areas QS-NE SEC-02 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER QS-NE SEC-17 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER QS-NE SEC-22 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER QS-NE SEC-35 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER QS-NW SEC-02 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER QS-NW SEC-17 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER QS-NW SEC-22 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER QS-NW SEC-36 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER QS-SE SEC-02 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER QS-SE SEC-05 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER QS-SE SEC-22 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER QS-SW SEC-04 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER TOTAL Rationale Distinct growth directions in the concept include: North, consisting of proposed residential and neighborhood commercial areas along 338 Ave E, 32nd St E, and 48 St E, and gateway annexations along Highways 2 and 2A; West, including residential lands along Big Rock Trail north of Highway 7; South, comprising gateway annexations to the southwest of the Highway 7 / 783 intersection, and residential and neighbourhood commercial development to the southeast of this intersection; and Southeast, including the highway commercial and industrial lands identified near the current Southbank Industrial District. Each of these areas incorporates different considerations into their selection, and will likely have different development concerns in future planning. Future ASPs should be aligned to these growth directions. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 73

91 North Residential The proposed annexation areas to the north of the current Town boundaries are shown in Figure 5.2, with a list of the lands required for development in Table 5.2. The primary axes for development in this area are 338 Ave E between Highways 2 and 2A, and 32nd St E and 48 St E, which would link with current arterials in the Town. The concept for this growth direction will have the following characteristics: Urban growth nodes. It is envisioned that two new urban nodes would be developed as the central feature of this expansion. Within the first 30-year expansion, one full node would be developed at 338 Ave E and 32nd St E consisting of mixed-use development integrating neighbourhood commercial uses and multifamily residential units. A second node at 338 Ave E and 48 St E would be created as part of development in the period. These growth nodes will be developed to integrate with existing plans for transit, and will work to provide new commercial employment centres for the community. Linkage to Highway 2. Providing for a new corridor along 338 Ave E will require significant improvements to the link with Highway 2 to the east. This work will need to be coordinated with Alberta Transportation when possible. Gateway development along Highway 2A. An annexation for control of the Highway 2A corridor is located north of the current Town boundary to align with the northward annexation. This includes the major intersection at Highway 2A and 338 Ave E. Gateway development close to Highway 2. Although lands closer to Highway 2 would be difficult to service, it is desirable to extend development to the highway to ensure that parcels in the MD of Foothills after annexation are not orphaned or restricted in development due to the new boundary. Existing rural development will be retained in the MD. Water reservoir development. Supporting future growth in the north will require storage for water supplies; identifying and securing a higher elevation location for this use will need to be part of planning for future annexation. This location may need to be obtained prior to new development in annexed areas. 74 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

92 Figure 5.2. Growth Concept, North Residential Development. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 75

93 Table 5.2. Proposed Annexation Areas, North Residential Development. Quarter Section Type Dev. Area ha) Dwelling Units Commercial Floor Space sq m) QS-NE SEC-33 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 30-year ,721 QS-NE SEC-34 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 30-year ,721 QS-NW SEC-34 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 30-year ,721 QS-SE SEC-04 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 30-year ,721 QS-SW SEC-03 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 30-year ,721 QS-SW SEC-04 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 30-year QS-NE SEC-03 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 60-year QS-NE SEC-04 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 60-year QS-NW SEC-03 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 60-year QS-NW SEC-35 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 60-year ,721 QS-SE SEC-03 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 60-year ,721 QS-SW SEC-02 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 60-year ,721 QS-SW SEC-35 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 60-year QS-NW SEC-26 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 60-year QS-NE SEC-02 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER-4 Gateway QS-NE SEC-35 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Gateway QS-NW SEC-02 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER-4 Gateway QS-SE SEC-02 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER-4 Gateway QS-SE SEC-05 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER-4 Gateway QS-SW SEC-04 TWP-021 RGE-29 MER-4 Gateway West Residential Proposed development to the west of the current Town boundaries is outlined in Figure 5.3, with the lands required for this development described in Table 5.3. The primary corridor for this development is Big Rock Trail, and the boundaries would incorporate the existing Sandstone Springs ASP in the MD of Foothills. The concept for this growth direction would include the following characteristics: High-amenity residential development. Given the distance from the Town and the layout of existing and proposed corridors, it is not likely that a commercial or mixed-use development node would be supportable in this area. Therefore, new growth should work to complement the high natural aesthetic value of the area with well-designed residential developments. Integration of the Sandstone Springs ASP. As this area includes the current location of the Sandstone Springs ASP in the MD of Foothills, new planning will need to incorporate this development into future growth. The residential lot yields should be increased for this area to meet CRP targets for residential growth. Difficulties with servicing. Given the physical geography and natural barriers in the area from the coulees and river valley, servicing this area with water and wastewater would be more challenging. Additionally, upgrading transportation linkages would be difficult, especially as Big Rock Trail will be required to bear significant increases in traffic. 76 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

94 Figure 5.3. Growth Concept, West Residential Development. Table 5.3. Proposed Annexation Areas, West Residential Development. Quarter Section Type Dev. Area ha) Dwelling Units Commercial Floor Space sq m) QS-NE SEC-19 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 30-year QS-NE SEC-24 TWP-020 RGE-01 MER-5 Residential - 30-year QS-NW SEC-20 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 30-year QS-SE SEC-19 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 30-year QS-SE SEC-24 TWP-020 RGE-01 MER-5 Residential - 30-year QS-SW SEC-20 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 30-year QS-NE SEC-25 TWP-020 RGE-01 MER-5 Residential - 60-year QS-SE SEC-25 TWP-020 RGE-01 MER-5 Residential - 60-year QS-SW SEC-24 TWP-020 RGE-01 MER-5 Residential - 60-year Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 77

95 South Residential Growth to the south of the current Town boundary includes areas outlined in Figure 5.4 and Table 5.4. These lands include sites identified by the MD of Foothills for high-profile residential and commercial development projects, specifically the Wind Walk ASP and the Gold Medal Development. Growth in this direction would be defined by the following characteristics: Integration of the Wind Walk ASP. The most significant feature of this proposed annexation area would be the integration of the Wind Walk ASP into the Town of Okotoks. Development in this area would be able to be supported by options for water and wastewater servicing from the Town. However, meeting Calgary Regional Partnership CRP) targets for residential density would require that the lot yields for this development be increased beyond current estimates. Additional residential/commercial development node. In addition to the Wind Walk development, a residential and neighbourhood commercial mixed-use node is also identified for the intersection of Highway 7 and 32 St E. The plans for this area should be developed to integrate with Wind Walk through the connections identified in the current ASP. Note that this node is included in the Highway 2A Industrial ASP as a Gateway Interface area; this will need to be considered in negotiations regarding the future disposition of this area. Gateway development along Highway 7. Additional gateway annexation is identified along Highway 7 to provide development control over the Highway 7 corridor and the intersection of Highways 2A, 7 and 783. Gold Medal development. This area includes the Gold Medal development, which would be serviced and developed under annexation. These development lands are not included under the land supply to meet commercial demand from the Town, however. It is assumed that the demand for this land has been expressed as part of commercial growth in the MD of Foothills, and should be considered separately. 78 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

96 Figure 5.4. Growth Concept, South Residential Development. Table 5.4. Proposed Annexation Areas, South Residential Development. Quarter Section Type Dev. Area ha) Dwelling Units Commercial Floor Space sq m) QS-NE SEC-16 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 30-year ,721 QS-NW SEC-15 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 30-year ,721 QS-NW SEC-16 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Residential - 30-year QS-NE SEC-17 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Gateway QS-NW SEC-17 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Gateway Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 79

97 Southeast Commercial/Industrial The growth concept includes lands in the southeast to be annexed to meet future industrial and highway commercial needs. These areas are outlined in Figure 5.5, and details on annexation by quarter-section are provided in Table 5.5. The land in this annexation area includes areas within the current Highway 2A Industrial ASP, as well as the Campground Lands identified in the current Intermunicipal Development Plan IDP) for future annexation. Growth in this direction will have the following characteristics: Long-term industrial and commercial expansion. The current stock of commercial and industrial lands, in addition to the commercial mixed-use nodes identified in other areas, will provide sufficient supplies to meet development needs in Okotoks within the next 30 years. Therefore, these lands should be identified as a means to meet long-term growth from 2043 to Highway 2A Industrial ASP lands. The lands to the south of Highway 7 in this growth area are currently located in the Highway 2A Industrial ASP, designated as a Gateway Interface area. Integration of this area will need to consider this designation and provide a transition from the urban industrial sites in the Southbank Industrial District to more rural industrial sites in other areas in the H2AI ASP. Campground Lands. The current lands identified as the Campground Lands include existing recreational-commercial uses located directly on the Sheep River. For the purposes of this assessment, it is assumed that these lands will continue in this use. However, future uses could be identified for this site that work to address other demands for land. Policy direction from the Town will be required to determine the disposition of this site. 80 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

98 Figure 5.5. Growth Concept, Southeast Commercial/Industrial Development. Table 5.5. Proposed Annexation Areas, Southeast Commercial/Industrial Development. Quarter Section Type Dev. Area ha) Dwelling Units Commercial Floor Space sq m) QS-NE SEC-15 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Commercial-Industrial ,021 QS-NE SEC-22 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Additional Area QS-NW SEC-22 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Additional Area QS-SE SEC-22 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 Additional Area Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 81

99 Alternate Directions Although there is additional developable land available in the areas surrounding the Town, there are considerable obstacles to exploring annexation in other locations: Existing development in the MD of Foothills. To the east, the Green Haven Estates ASP is currently under construction, and additional country residential development due east of the Town would make it difficult to support Town servicing or denser development in these areas. Likewise, existing country residential development to the northwest and southwest would prevent lands proximate to the Town from being developed at higher urban densities in the short term, and would make service extensions to vacant lands more expensive. Highway 2. Highway 2 represents a major obstacle for any growth further to the east, as lands to the other side of the highway would not have effective transportation linkages to the Town, and servicing across the highway would be expensive for the limited development opportunities. Physical barriers. Further development to the west is made more difficult by the river valley and coulees located there, which provide physical obstacles to expansion. This can complicate both the contiguity of development and the availability of access routes to potential locations to the west. To a lesser extent, steep slopes would also complicate some development south of Highway 7 as well Considerations for Future Growth Planning The long-term growth concept identified in this chapter includes lands to meet 30- and 60-year growth needs for the Town of Okotoks in a sustainable form at urban densities that meets current Town policies. Chapter 6 will provide an outline of required infrastructure upgrades to accommodate this growth, and the fiscal impacts of development to build-out. Considerations for implementing growth plans include the following: Integration of existing development planning into future annexation areas. The Sandstone Springs, Wind Walk, and H2AI ASPs are located within areas delineated for future growth. These sites are critical for expansion to the west, south, and southeast to meet future needs, and it will be required to enter into agreements with the MD of Foothills and corresponding property owners to allow annexation in these directions. Annexation of these areas may require adjustment of the existing concepts for these areas, however; in particular, residential densities may need to be increased to meet CRP density targets. This should be managed to provide incentives for current landowners to develop at these higher densities. Focus on mixed-use development nodes. Outlined development should be planned around the identified mixed-use nodes to provide for efficient, walkable communities that can be easily serviced by infrastructure and transit. Future infrastructure planning and ASPs for development to the north and south should reinforce the importance of these nodes as centres for growth. Provision for growth in multiple directions. Annexation by the Town of Okotoks should support growth to the south, southeast, west, and north to ensure balanced development on both sides of the Sheep River. Additionally, allowing for multiple directions for growth can ensure flexibility in future planning. Reallocation or expansion of some growth areas may be required to address development 82 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

100 concerns by the MD of Foothills or additional land requirements for higher than expected growth. Consideration of additional growth within the MD of Foothills. Although the annexation areas outlined in this concept encompass much of the developable lands surrounding the Town of Okotoks, there are still sites available that could incorporate future residential and commercial growth, primarily to the northwest and east. To this end, discussions about future regional growth should be incorporated into broader revisions to the IDP with the MD of Foothills. This should clarify the uses of fringe areas, provide for transitions from urban densities in newly annexed areas to more rural densities in surrounding areas in the MD, and revise the consultation and shared servicing processes to address previous concerns about the IDP. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 83

101 84 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

102 6. Impacts of Future Growth The growth areas identified in Section 5 for potential annexation represent the land area required to provide space for new residential, commercial, industrial, recreational, and institutional development to support expected growth to 2043 and Bringing these lands to active use, however, will require that these lands are supported with sufficient infrastructure and services. Key infrastructure investments will include: Drinking water supplies Wastewater removal Local transportation infrastructure These systems include not only the linear infrastructure necessary to provide services to specific sites, but also the expansions to shared facilities necessary to support overall increases, such as water and wastewater treatment plants and bridge crossings. Note that stormwater services are not included; requirements for new development in the Town mandate that stormwater be managed on-site to pre-development quality and quantity. The need to expand Town infrastructure to meet these future needs must consider the importance of maintaining fiscal sustainability, both in the short and long term. Expanding these systems and other hard and soft services will require that the Town increase its outlays for both capital investment and operations and maintenance. Conversely, the Town will increase revenues through a greater residential and non-residential tax base, fees for municipal services, levies on new development, and other sources. Sustaining desirable levels of service within the Town will require balancing these expenses and receipts for all future growth. This section provides details on the expansions required to the infrastructure systems as described, as well as the overall projected fiscal impact of new growth on the Town budget. This assessment incorporates all available sources of data to present a complete evaluation as to current and future demands, and any potential obstacles to providing adequate servicing to the locations identified in Section 5. Note that this assessment is current as of July 2013, and relies on an earlier version of the land use concept for calculations regarding infrastructure requirements. These sections will need to be updated through future engineering studies to reflect changes in infrastructure needs. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 85

103 6.1. Water For the purposes of this report, it has been assumed that potable water supplies in the Town will be supported by a treated water pipeline from the City of Calgary. Improvements and expansions to the system required for north Okotoks are provided in Figure 6.1, while improvements in southern Okotoks are presented in Figure 6.2. A full analysis of this option, as well as potential alternatives, are provided in Appendix B. This concept is consistent with the report from BSEI Municipal Consulting Engineers, entitled Conceptual Water Servicing Review Draft. It is assumed that existing supplies from the Sheep River will continue to serve south Okotoks. New supplies would be sourced from the Calgary via a pipeline along the Highway 2 right-of-way to a location within the proposed 60-year annexation area. This pipeline would be used to fill treated storage reservoirs in the north, and permit servicing of new development in the north to be gravity-fed. However, even with additional supplies of water for the north, the population in south Okotoks will likely exceed the capacity from available water licenses from the Sheep River during the period. Without additional licenses, north Okotoks will need to supply about 0.7 ML/d to the south, which will increase to 1.8 ML/d by Storage, transmission capacity, and pumping facilities will also need to be upgraded to consider the additional flows. 86 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

104 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 87 Figure 6.1. Drinking Water Infrastructure Improvements North), Town of Okotoks.

105 88 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update Figure 6.2. Drinking Water Infrastructure Improvements South), Town of Okotoks.

106 6.2. Wastewater The improvements required to the Okotoks wastewater system for the 30-year timeframe are provided in Figure 6.2, with 60-year improvements to the system presented in Figure 6.3. The full analysis supporting these servicing scenarios is provided in Appendix C. Projections for required wastewater infrastructure improvements provided in this assessment are based on aggregate dry and wet weather flows estimated by quartersection. For the growth scenarios, major infrastructure improvements would include: A system of forcemains and gravity sewers to the south of Highway 7, with a major basin connection point at 32 St E, servicing areas to the south and southeast; Major forecemains along Northridge Drive and to the north of the current Town boundary, servicing the D Arcy Ranch lands, Wedderburn lands, and new growth areas to the north; Forcemains servicing growth areas to the west, linking to the existing system to the north at Big Rock Trail, and to new forcemains in the south at Highway 7; System upgrades along N Railway St and 32 St E to support growth to the north and additional development within the current Town boundaries; Multiple lift stations; and A river-crossing siphon near the wastewater treatment plant and 32 St E to support increased flows from the south. Note that most new wastewater infrastructure required to support growth will be necessary within the 30-year planning horizon, with a smaller amount of new infrastructure investment necessary to support growth in the period. Additionally, new infrastructure needs are clearly divided between growth directions in the north and south, with only smaller areas to the west serviced through connections to the existing system. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 89

107 90 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

108 Stantec Consulting Ltd. G-LS1 C 10 4 I I10 I1 0 H1 I106 I-LS3 H-LS1 G100 G101 H108 H106 H107 TOWN OF OKOTOKS FUTURE SYSTEM SERVICING PLAN UPDATES Okotoks, AB, Canada * This figure presents conceptual opinion of probable cost estimates ± 50%) for capital costs associated with the construction of the infrastructure required for the development of the lands and / or for upgrades required in fully developed areas. Due to the conceptual nature of this study and understanding that there exist unknown variables beyond the scope of this study, the cost estimates presented herein include a contingency allowance of 30% for project unknowns and an engineering and administration allowance of 15% of the total estimated capital costs. These factored level capital cost estimates should be considered realistic, but conceptual at this point and intended to give an order of magnitude opinion of estimated costs for planning and internal budgeting purposes only. No detailed specifications, geotechnical requirements, process flow diagrams, site development or construction drawings have been developed or assessed to obtain preliminary design level cost estimates. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 91 WWTP 01 G102 Okotoks City Limt I-LS1 Existing Pipe Future Lift Station Not Modeled) Existing Node I100 U5 Future Forcemain Not Modeled) Future Lift Station General Servicing Direction Not Modeled) I-LS2 1 I10 03 I104 Future Forcemain Future Servicing Concept 00 G1 04 Future System Upgrades Future Servicing Concept Basin J H1 F104 G-LS2 F1 0 3 F101 F102 H10 2 F100 Basin I 07 Basin Connection Point typ.) A Basin H D 10 0\ C101 I1 U2 Basin G C100 A100 H103 G1 F-LS1 3 Basin F U4b Basin E U3 Cost 2 D104 A104 60yr Servicing Plan Developed, but Flows Not Included In 30yr Servicing Plan Basin D D-LS1 02 U1 SaveDate: 11/8/2013 1:12:58 PM User: maanderson V:\1107\active\ Okotoks 2013\report\figures\map_mxd\dwg1.4_future_system_servicing_concept_30yr.mxd U4a D1 D101 to retain current sewer obvert elevation to maintain upstream HGL. The upgrade is conditional upon upgrades to the WWTP to accommodate the changes to the proposed sewer grades 3 Existing system upgrade U5 is proposed 3. sewers based on full replacement of pavement and adjacent sidewalks, not including replacement of adjacent utilities. 2 Estimated costs for upgrades to existing Notes: 1 Estimated costs for future servicing based 1. on greenfield construction in 2013 dollars 3 10 C Project Cost* $2,990,000 $747,500 $2,242,500 $747,500 $3,737,500 $1,495,000 $3,737,500 $747,500 $2,242,500 $2,242,500 $1,049,490 $1,716,260 $2,780,700 $2,734,355 $2,812,095 $1,306,630 B102 1 Existing Gravity Sewer Upgrades Upgraded Length [mm] Cost Per Unit Length Diameter [mm] $2, $2, $2, $3, $3, $3,200 A 00 U1 U2 U3 U4a U4b U5 A-LS1 01 A1 A102 B1 Upgrade ID Future Lift Stations Peak Flow [L/s] Unit Cost 100 $2,000,000 7 $500, $1,500,000 9 $500, $2,500, $1,000, $2,500, $500, $1,500, $1,500,000 B-LS1 1 Lift Station ID A-LS1 B-LS1 D-LS1 F-LS1 G-LS1 G-LS2 H-LS1 I-LS1 I-LS2 I-LS3 Future Subcatchment Basin Conceptual Servicing Plan Basin A Developed, But Flows Not Basin B Included in Overall Servicing Plan Basin C 01 Forcemain ID A100 B102 D101 F104 G101 G104 H106 I100 I105 I107 Future Forcemains Diameter [mm] Length [mm] Cost Per Unit Length Project Cost* 350 2,500 $650 $1,625, $500 $400, ,310 $600 $786, ,070 $500 $535, $650 $572, $600 $450, ,970 $600 $1,782, $500 $295, $550 $220, ,400 $650 $910,000 Figure 6.3. Okotoks Sanitary Sewer Improvements, 30-Year Assessment. B1 Future River Crossing Siphon Diameter [mm] Length [m] Cost Per Unit Length Project Cost* $2,200 $ 1,381,380 The Copyrights to all designs and drawings are the property of Stantec. Reproduction or use for any purpose other that that authorized by Stantec is forbidden C 1 Siphon ID H th St S Lethbridge AB Canada T1J 4J7 Tel. 403) Fax. 403) Coordinate System: NAD TM Future Gravity Sewer Gravity Sewer ID Diameter [mm] Length [m] Cost Per Unit Length Project Cost* A $900 $53,820 A $700 $282,555 A $700 $983,710 A $700 $565,110 B $700 $470,925 B $700 $648,830 C $800 $322,920 C $800 $322,920 C $700 $1,203,475 C $900 $1,574,235 D $700 $387,205 D $700 $449,995 D $700 $449,995 F $700 $261,625 F $700 $188,370 F $700 $345,345 F $700 $136,045 G $900 $1,103,310 G $700 $669,760 G $700 $1,067,430 H $1,000 $343,850 H $1,000 $583,050 H $1,000 $971,750 H $700 $899,990 H $700 $1,402,310 I $700 $115,115 I $700 $272,090 I $700 $83,720 I $700 $240,695 I $700 $136,045 Stantec Consulting Ltd. does not guarantee the accuracy of this opinion of probable cost. The actual final cost of the project will be determined through the bidding and construction process. Proposed Future Servicing Plan 30 Year Growth) m

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110 Stantec Consulting Ltd. G102 G-LS1 C 10 4 I I10 I1 0 H1 01 I106 I-LS3 H-LS1 G100 G101 H108 H106 H107 TOWN OF OKOTOKS FUTURE SYSTEM SERVICING PLAN UPDATES * This figure presents conceptual opinion of probable cost estimates ± 50%) for capital costs associated with the construction of the infrastructure required for the development of the lands and / or for upgrades required in fully developed areas. Due to the conceptual nature of this study and understanding that there exist unknown variables beyond the scope of this study, the cost estimates presented herein include a contingency allowance of 30% for project unknowns and an engineering and administration allowance of 15% of the total estimated capital costs. These factored level capital cost estimates should be considered realistic, but conceptual at this point and intended to give an order of magnitude opinion of estimated costs for planning and internal budgeting purposes only. No detailed specifications, geotechnical requirements, process flow diagrams, site development or construction drawings have been developed or assessed to obtain preliminary design level cost estimates. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 93 WWTP Okotoks, AB, Canada 03 Okotoks City Limt I-LS1 Existing Pipe 07 Future Lift Station Not Modeled) Existing Node I100 Future Forcemain Not Modeled) Future Lift Station I-LS2 1 I10 00 G1 General Servicing Direction Not Modeled) H1 I104 Future Forcemain Future Servicing Concept F104 Future System Upgrades Future Servicing Concept H10 2 F1 0 3 F101 F102 Basin J Basin I I1 Basin H F100 D 10 0\ C101 to retain current sewer obvert elevation to maintain upsream HGL. The upgrade is conditional upon upgrades to the WWTP to accommodate the changes to the proposed sewer grades 3 Existing system upgrade U5 is proposed 3. C100 A100 sewers based on full replacement of pavement and adjacent sidewalks, not including replacement of adjacent utilities. 2 Estimated costs for upgrades to existing 2. G-LS2 on greenfield construction in 2013 dollars H103 Cost G10 4 $1,049,490 $1,716,260 $2,780,700 $2,287,350 $3,354,780 $4,090,320 3 $1,306,630 Basin G F-LS1 Basin F 2 Basin Connection Point typ.) Basin E A104 D104 A Basin D D-LS1 SaveDate: 11/8/2013 1:18:56 PM User: maanderson V:\1107\active\ Okotoks 2013\report\figures\map_mxd\dwg1.5_future_system_servicing_concept_60yr.mxd Future Subcatchment Basin Conceptual Servicing Plan Basin A Developed, But Flows Not Basin B Included in Overall Servicing Plan Basin C 02 D1 D C Notes: Project Cost* $2,990,000 $747,500 $5,232,500 $1,495,000 $747,500 $3,737,500 $2,242,500 $3,737,500 $747,500 $2,242,500 $2,242,500 1 Estimated costs for future servicing based U5 B102 1 Existing Gravity Sewer Upgrades Upgraded Length [mm] Cost Per Unit Length Diameter [mm] $2, $2, $3, $3, $3, $3, $3,800 A U4 Project Cost* $1,625,000 $400,000 $1,048,000 $630,000 $535,000 $572,000 $450,000 $1,782,000 $295,000 $220,000 $910,000 U1 U2 U3 B1 Upgrade ID A-LS1 01 A1 A102 1 Lift Station ID A-LS1 B-LS1 D-LS1 E-LS1 F-LS1 G-LS1 G-LS2 H-LS1 I-LS1 I-LS2 I-LS3 Future Lift Stations Peak Flow [L/s] Unit Cost 100 $2,000,000 7 $500, $3,500, $1,000,000 9 $500, $2,500, $1,500, $2,500, $500, $1,500, $1,500,000 Figure 6.4. Okotoks Sanitary Sewer Improvements, 60-Year Assessment. 01 Forcemain ID A100 B102 D101 E100 F104 G101 G104 H106 I100 I105 I107 B-LS1 Future River Crossing Siphon Diameter [mm] Length [m] Cost Per Unit Length Project Cost* $ 2,200 $1,348,490 Future Forcemains Diameter [mm] Length [mm] Cost Per Unit Length 2, $ $ ,310 $ ,050 $ ,070 $ $ $ ,970 $ $ $ ,400 $650 The Copyrights to all designs and drawings are the property of Stantec. Reproduction or use for any purpose other that that authorized by Stantec is forbidden C 1 Siphon ID H th St S Lethbridge AB Canada T1J 4J7 Tel. 403) Fax. 403) Coordinate System: NAD TM Project Cost* $53,820 $282,555 $983,710 $565,110 $470,925 $648,830 $444,015 $403,650 $1,203,475 $868,595 $1,574,235 $1,193,010 $847,665 $497,835 $449,995 $868,595 $449,995 $261,625 $188,370 $345,345 $136,045 $125,580 $230,230 $1,103,310 $765,440 $1,219,920 $343,850 $583,050 $971,750 $899,990 $1,402,310 $115,115 $272,090 $83,720 $240,695 $136,045 B1 Future Gravity Sewer Gravity Sewer ID Diameter [mm] Length [m] Cost Per Unit Length A $900 A $700 A $700 A $700 B $700 B $700 C $1,100 C $1,000 C $700 C $700 C $900 C $700 C $700 D $900 D $700 D $700 D $700 F $700 F $700 F $700 F $700 F $700 F $700 G $900 G $800 G $800 H $1,000 H $1,000 H $1,000 H $700 H $700 I $700 I $700 I $700 I $700 I $700 Stantec Consulting Ltd. does not guarantee the accuracy of this opinion of probable cost. The actual final cost of the project will be determined through the bidding and construction process. Proposed Future Servicing Plan 60 Year Growth) m

111

112 6.3. Transportation The transportation improvements required to accommodate future growth in Okotoks are presented for 30-year requirements in Figure 6.4 and 60-year requirements in Figure 6.5. This evaluates capacity on the basis of a model of weekday afternoon/evening peak conditions, assuming that the areas identified for growth are fully built out. An assessment and rationale for required changes is provided in Appendix D. Generally, these include: New arterials. Additional two-lane arterials extending 32 St E and 48 St E, as well as a new arterial at what would be designated as 330 Ave E will be required to service growth areas to the north. These will provide linkages to 338 Ave E and Highway 2A. New bridge crossing. A new bridge crossing linking Highways 7 and 549 would potentially provide an alternate route for area-wide traffic, and serve as a bypass for Highway 2A going through the Town. Widening of highways. Accommodating increases in traffic will require that Highways 2A and 2 are widened to six lanes north of the Town for the 30- and 60- year planning horizons, respectively. Highway 7 will also require twinning to a fourlane rural highway within the period, and additional widening close to Highway 2 within the period. Widening of arterials. In addition to the requirements for greater capacity on the highways, major arterials in the Town will be required to be widened. This includes widening 338 Ave E and 32 St E to four lanes within the first 30-year period, and 48 St E and the as yet unbuilt 330 Ave E to four lanes by Bridge expansion. The bridge crossing on 32 St E would also require expansion to accommodate four lanes of traffic, likely through. Corridor management and signal optimization. Along multiple routes during the 30- and 60-year periods, additional capacity would be required through improvements such as intersection turn bays, changes to signal timing, and other adjustments to improve traffic flow. Signalization. Multiple intersections within the study area would require new traffic signals due to the increase in traffic over the planning horizons. New interchange. A new interchange would be required at the intersection of 338 Ave E and Highway 2, as 338 Ave E would be serving as a key arterial for the north side of Okotoks and a connection with Highway 2A. Upgraded interchanges. Upgrades would be required for the interchanges at Highways 2 and 7 in the south, and Highways 2 and 2A north of the study area. This would include improvements to the ramp intersections and key ramps. Median closure. The 370 Ave E connection with Highway 2 should be closed, as it would operate above accepted limits for an unsignalized intersection. This should be managed through a service road connection and linkages with the interchange at 338 Ave E. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 95

113 96 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

114 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 97 Figure 6.5. Okotoks Transportation Improvements, 30-Year Assessment.

115

116 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 99 Figure 6.6. Okotoks Transportation Improvements, 60-Year Assessment.

117

118 6.4. Financial Analysis An evaluation of general financial costs associated with supporting growth, as well as the estimated development levies required to support these expenditures, can be provided for the conceptual plans for infrastructure provided above. These calculations should be revised when more detailed infrastructure planning is conducted, but can provide an understanding of whether new growth is financially feasible. The estimates provided here are specifically provided for the 30-year planning horizon. This is due to the large up-front costs associated with expanding the Town s water supply, upgrading the wastewater treatment plant, and building new roads in annexed areas. Costs after the 30-year horizon are expected to be lower. For the infrastructure identified in the supporting reports, some components would be considered on-site improvements, and would be considered the responsibility of the developer. The Town may have a role in coordinating the development of this infrastructure, but the financial responsibility for these components will be with the developer. A full analysis of the costs of growth to the Town will be required. This will be necessary to coordinate the financing of new infrastructure and services, and confirm the funding needs to be supported through off-site levies and other funding tools Water Infrastructure From the proposed improvements to the drinking water supply and supporting network infrastructure conducted by EPCOR Water Services Inc. and earlier reports on water servicing options produced by BSEI Municipal Consulting Engineers, it is estimated that the off-site costs provided in Table 6.1 would be incurred. It should be noted that the City of Calgary would levy a growth charge for the pipeline to fund the additional infrastructure required to service external customers. At present, this charge amounts to $9,906 per acre, which is assumed to be included in overall levies for water services in Okotoks. Projected sources of funding to support this infrastructure would include provincial support for upgrades associated with the new pipeline. This is assumed to amount to 80% of the total cost of the infrastructure. An additional $8.9 million would be required from development levies. Table 6.1. Proposed Water Development Levies, Town of Okotoks. Infrastructure Item Cost Treated water pipeline Calgary to Okotoks north) $19,400,000 Water storage to 2043) $22,000,000 Transmission mains $3,200,000 TOTAL $44,600,000 Funding Source Funding Provincial support assumed 80% of total cost) $35,680,000 Off-site levies $8,920,000 TOTAL $44,600,000 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 101

119 Wastewater Infrastructure The estimated cost of required improvements to the sanitary sewer system is provided in Table 6.2. These costs, determined by the assessment performed by Stantec Consulting Ltd., would include not only improvements to off-site sanitary collection, but also improvements to the wastewater treatment plant required to accommodate additional flows. Table 6.2. Proposed Wastewater Development Levies, Town of Okotoks. Infrastructure Item Cost Offsite sanitary collection $16,325,400 Wastewater treatment plant improvements $40,000,000 TOTAL $56,325,400 Funding Source Funding Provincial support assumed 20% of WWTP cost) $8,000,000 Off-site levies $48,325,400 TOTAL $56,325,400 Projected sources of funding for sewer upgrades would include provincial support for wastewater treatment plant upgrades, amounting to 20% of the total estimated cost, or approximately $8 million. An additional $48.3 million would be required from off-site levies Transportation Infrastructure Required transportation network improvements, determined by Bunt & Associates Engineering Ltd., would have the estimated costs and allocation of funding sources as defined in Table 6.3. Sources of funding identified in this case would include off-site levies, contributions partial or total) from developers, and expected provincial and federal funding. It is expected that for provincial highways not within the Town, the Alberta government will manage required improvements. Altogether, infrastructure improvements are expected to require approximately $193 million in funding. About 37% of this $70.7 million) is planned from off-site levies from developers, with $40 million of required investment from developers, and $82.4 million from provincial and federal funding sources Public Facilities At present, the Town of Okotoks levies a $12,000 per acre charge for public facilities. Given the focus of this study, the public facilities levy is not assumed to change Total Off-Site Levies From the analysis in the earlier report, it can be assumed that during the next 30 years, about 440 acres will be developed within the Town of Okotoks which can be the source of development levies, and an additional 1,690 acres will be developed in newly annexed areas. Assuming a total of 2,130 acres will be developed over this period, Table 6.4 provides the required off-site levies. In total, it is estimated that about $81,993 per acre will be required. 102 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

120 Table 6.3. Total Proposed Off-Site Development Levies, Town of Okotoks. Item Total Levy Levy per Acre Water $8,920,000 $4,188 City of Calgary Growth Charge) $9,906 Sanitary Sewer $48,325,400 $22,688 Transportation $70,740,000 $33,211 Public Facilities* $12,000 TOTAL $127,058,500 $81,993 * Public facilities levies are assumed to remain consistent with current levies. Table 6.4. Proposed Transportation Development Levies, Town of Okotoks. Funding Item Cost Off-Site Developers Prov./Fed. Levies 32nd Street Bridges $13,820,000 $6,910,000 - $6,910,000 32nd Street Twinning to North Boundary) $7,320,000 $1,830,000 - $5,490,000 Twin 338th Avenue Highway 2A to 2) $38,400,000 $19,200,000 $19,200,000 - Twin Highway km) $35,200,000 $26,400,000 $8,800,000 - Two lane arterials north of 338th Avenue) $24,000,000 $12,000,000 $12,000,000 - New Interchange $35,000, $35,000,000 Interchange Improvements Highway 2) $10,000, $10,000,000 Highway 2 additional lanes $25,000, $25,000,000 Intersection Signalization $2,400,000 $2,400, Corridor Management $2,000,000 $2,000, TOTAL $193,140,000 $70,740,000 $40,000,000 $82,400,000 Table 6.5. Comparisons of Development Levies. Item Okotoks current) Okotoks proposed) Airdrie Calgary Water $ 5,249 $ 33,211 $ 41,709 $ 48,423 Sanitary Sewer $ 17,292 $ 14,094 $ 13,068 $ 9,906 Transportation $ 4,158 $ 22,688 $ 7,462 $ 24,468 1 Public Facilities $ 12,000 $ 12,000 $ 7,800 2 $ 30,136 TOTAL $ 38,699 $ $ 70,039 $ 112,933 1 Includes additional stormwater levy 2 Estimated Airdrie Recreation Contribution based on $1,200 per unit Table 6.5 compares the current and proposed development levies for Okotoks, and provides the development charges for the cities of Airdrie and Calgary. Although the proposed charges represent a significant increase from current levels, development levies in other communities are at a comparable level. In the case of Calgary, the development charges are still significantly higher. Although more work should be done to determine the right levy structure for the Town that would allow for growth, it would appear from these estimates that an increase would not be out of line with other jurisdictions in the area. Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 103

121 6.5. Conclusions The information in this section provides the general impacts of accommodating projected growth over 30- and 60-year planning horizons. An understanding of these general impacts should be used to guide future coordination of growth and updates to relevant infrastructure plans. Several considerations should be incorporated into future planning: Long-term growth planning will require significant short-term infrastructure expansion. Future growth in Okotoks requires additional capacity with water, wastewater, and transportation systems, including major linear infrastructure and supporting facilities. Much of the cost to support this growth, however, will be required initially; lower costs for infrastructure are expected for the period after major projects are completed. Major wastewater and transportation infrastructure investments can be generally divided between growth directions to the north and south. Although overall system improvements may be required, growth to the north and south of the Town in the concept is generally supported by separate infrastructure improvements, with an expansion to the wastewater treatment plant required for any new growth. The timing of system expansions will be dependent on the direction of growth that takes place in the system. Water system improvements will require significant investment independent of growth direction. Plans to expand available supplies of water through a treated water pipeline to support growth will require investment to increase overall capacity. Facilities in annexation area to the north, including the pipeline and storage reservoirs, will be necessary regardless of the actual direction of growth. Development levies will need to increase within the Town to support growth, but will be consistent with other communities. Providing infrastructure for growth within the community will require increasing revenue received from development levies. Assuming some support from other levels of government, this will require about $81,993 per acre. Although this represents an increase from current levy rates at $38,699 per acre, new levy rates will still be comparable to those found in other communities. Additional work will be required to coordinate a development levy structure. Although this analysis provides a general estimate of levy rates required to support growth, more detailed infrastructure planning should be conducted and used as inputs into a comprehensive study to determine final rates. Furthermore, developers in the area should be engaged to determine whether changes in the rate structure will have significant impacts on the real estate markets in the community. 104 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

122 7. Conclusions This evaluation presents a strategic foundation for managing future growth in the Town of Okotoks. Proposed areas for growth, recommended approaches for servicing, and financial impacts should inform future efforts to extend the boundaries of the Town to meet future land supply needs. From the review and assessment conducted, there are several major points that should be a focus for future discussions: The Town of Okotoks will continue to experience high population growth pressures. As indicated by the constant-share population projection using the CRP regional population predictions, the Town is positioned to expand to around 82,150 residents by This is consistent with the rapid pace of growth in the community over recent years. Without new land supplies, there will be significant impacts on the Town. Unless new residents can be accommodated within the Town at urban densities, it is very likely that there will be significant impacts on the community. For the Town, a constrained land supply will increase local housing prices, reduce availability and affordability, and reduce the attractiveness of the community for current and future residents. Constrained urban land supplies will also have impacts on the surrounding rural area. Growth pressures in the area have promoted country residential development and other projects within the MD of Foothills, close to the Town. If future population for the area is accommodated at rural densities, the rate of land consumption for new development will increase, resulting in significant impacts on landscape conservation, fiscal sustainability of development, and the maintenance of regional ecological functions. Intensification of existing areas must be part of a long-term approach to growth. Although this study focuses primarily on demands for new land for growth, a critical component of any long-term strategy will need to be the intensification of existing areas. The downtown will likely be a primary focus of this, and an Area Redevelopment Plan should be created to provide a strategy that considers opportunities for more density while preserving valued community resources. The Town is positioned to continue as a regional service centre into the future. Projections of future commercial growth in this study assume that the Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update 105

123 Town will continue to serve as a regional centre for commercial activity south of Calgary. Assuming that this growth can be accommodated in both highway- and neighbourhood-oriented centres, sufficient commercial land supplies will exist to support this role. Industrial growth within the Town will require flexible planning. Prior industrial growth in the Town has been limited due to servicing constraints in the Southbank Industrial District. Efforts should focus on complementing light industrial development within the Town with heavier development within Southbank and proposed areas for annexation. Long-term coordination of growth will require policy decisions regarding cost sharing. The proposed growth areas identified in this report will need to be supported with additional infrastructure, as specified in Section 6. Future policy direction will be required to allocate the share of these development costs to stakeholders in a fair and equitable way. Future work by the Town and stakeholders should include: Annexation. Given the current need for additional lands to accommodate development, efforts should be made to complete the annexation process as soon as possible to meet demands from residential growth. Consultations with the public and stakeholders on future planning and development levies. Future growth planning should allow for comments and feedback from the public and stakeholders within the Town. Additionally, the future development levy structure should be the focus of consultation with local development interests to determine the best structure and approach to finance future infrastructure needs. Updates to the Municipal Development Plan. The Town of Okotoks MDP will need to be updated. This revision will need to consider the changing context of the Town, and annexed growth areas will need to be incorporated into overall Town planning. Development of additional infrastructure studies. The infrastructure assessments included in this report should be used as a basis for more comprehensive analysis and strategic planning to determine long-term solutions for water, wastewater, transportation and public service needs. This should be performed to provide input for future capital planning, and ensure that new development is financially sustainable. Development of Area Structure Plans. New Area Structure Plans will need to be developed in annexation areas to provide more detailed concepts for growth and present guidelines for land development. For areas to the west and south, new ASPs should integrate concepts from existing planning for these sites. 106 Town of Okotoks Growth Study and Financial Analysis - July 2016 update

124 APPENDIX A: Land Demand Projection Analysis

125 108

126 Inputs to the Okotoks Growth Study: Residential, Commercial and Industrial Land Requirement Forecasts Revised Draft August 2013 Prepared for: O2 Planning + Design, on behalf of the Town of Okotoks By: Coriolis Consulting Corp. 109

127 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction Background Approach Professional Disclaimer Okotoks in the Regional Context Population and Household Growth Forecast for Okotoks Past Trends Forecast Available Projections Projections for the Analysis Residential Development Outlook Past Residential Trends Historic Housing Starts by Type in Okotoks Historic Starts by Type in the City of Calgary Projected Demand by Housing Type Average Density of New Residential Development Projected Residential Land Requirements Commercial Development Outlook Current Commercial Situation Okotoks Trade Area and Implications for Forecasting Commercial Potential in Okotoks Definition of the Primary Trade Area Commercial Floorspace Demand in Okotoks Future Commercial Floorspace Potential in Okotoks Projected Commercial Land Requirements Industrial Development Outlook Current Industrial Situation Historic Trends in Industrial Floorspace Growth Projected Industrial Floorspace Demand PAGE I DRAFT

128 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS 6.4 Projected Industrial Land Requirements Summary of Net Land Requirements Implications PAGE II DRAFT

129 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS 1.0 Introduction 1.1 Background The Town of Okotoks retained a consulting team lead by O2 Planning + Design Inc. to provide a Growth Study and Financial Analysis to help set out the long term vision for the Town s residential, commercial, and industrial growth, recognizing that a substantial part of future growth will need to be accommodated on lands to be annexed to the Town under a continued growth model. Working as a sub-consultant to O2 Planning + Design, Coriolis Consulting Corp. was added to the project team to provide the following inputs: 1. Population and land requirements forecasts, including: Population and household forecasts. Forecasts of future residential land requirements by unit type. Forecasts of future commercial land requirements. Forecasts of future industrial land requirements. 2. Financial analysis. The annexed land will require investments in key infrastructure e.g. transportation and services). Other members of the consulting team are producing engineering studies and cost estimates of the required infrastructure. Our role involves: Financial analysis to estimate the maximum supportable off-site levy per unit that new development can afford. Calculating the share of the total infrastructure cost that can be funded by development and the balance that must be funded by the Town. Calculating the implications for annual debt service on the balance and, in turn, the implications for additional tax. The inputs provided by Coriolis Consulting will help the Town determine the appropriate amount of land to annex and the financial implications of the costs associated with future growth. This report documents the first component of our work i.e., the population and land requirement forecasts). The second component i.e., the financial analysis) will be completed once the engineering studies and cost estimates have been produced. 1.2 Approach Our approach to the population and land requirement forecasts includes the following main tasks: 1. Context Review Section 2.0): We review Okotoks location and role in the Calgary Region. 2. Population and household forecasts Section 3.0): We develop population and household forecasts for the short to medium term ) and long term ) based on past demographic trends and available population forecasts for Okotoks and the Calgary Region. 3. Residential Development Outlook Section 4.0): a. We develop a housing demand forecast by type of unit for the short to medium term ) and long term ) based on past development trends in Okotoks and other communities in the Calgary Region. 112 PAGE 1 DRAFT

130 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS b. We determine a reasonable assumption about the likely density of future residential development for each housing type based on the Town s Land-Use Bylaw, residential projects currently underway in Okotoks and input from O2 Planning + Design. c. We calculate a low and a high estimate of the net developable residential land requirement for each dwelling type based on the housing demand forecast and the density assumptions for the short to medium term ) and long term ). 4. Commercial Development Outlook Section 5.0): a. We define the primary trade area for commercial space in Okotoks and estimate the trade area population for b. We calculate the amount of existing commercial floorspace in Okotoks based on the floorspace inventory provided by the Town. c. We calculate the commercial floorspace per capita ratio in Okotoks based on the current trade area population and the existing commercial floorspace in Okotoks. d. We estimate a low and a high population forecast for the trade area, using our forecasts for Okotoks i.e. step 2 above) and available forecasts for the rest of the trade area. e. We estimate the future commercial floorspace potential in Okotoks based on the trade area population forecast, the supportable commercial floorspace per trade area resident, and an evaluation of future commercial development patterns in the Calgary Region. f. We determine a reasonable assumption about the likely density of future commercial development in Okotoks based on input from the Town about densities at recent commercial projects. g. We calculate a low and a high estimate of the net developable commercial land requirement for the short to medium term ) and long term ) based on the future commercial floorspace growth potential and the density assumptions. 5. Industrial Development Outlook Section 6.0): a. We analyze historic industrial floorspace growth trends in Okotoks using the floorspace inventory provided by the Town. b. We calculate the average annual industrial floorspace growth in Okotoks for the past 10, 20, and 30 years. c. We estimate a low and a high industrial floorspace growth forecast in Okotoks for the short to medium term ) and long term ) based on past development trends in Okotoks and current industrial development patterns in the Calgary Region. d. We determine a reasonable assumption about the likely density for future industrial development in Okotoks. e. We calculate a low and a high estimate of the net developable industrial land requirement for the short to medium term ) and long term ) based on the industrial growth forecasts and the density assumptions. 6. Summary of Land Requirements Section 7.0): We summarize our forecasts of likely future land requirements by land use. 7. Implications Section 8.0): Based on all our work, we discuss the implications for land annexation. 113 PAGE 2 DRAFT

131 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS 1.3 Professional Disclaimer This document may contain estimates and forecasts of future growth and urban development prospects, estimates of the financial performance of possible future urban development projects, opinions regarding the likelihood of approval of development projects, and recommendations regarding development strategy or municipal policy. All such estimates, forecasts, opinions, and recommendations are based in part on forecasts and assumptions regarding population change, economic growth, policy, market conditions, development costs and other variables. The assumptions, estimates, forecasts, opinions, and recommendations are based on interpreting past trends, gauging current conditions, and making judgments about the future. As with all judgments concerning future trends and events, however, there is uncertainty and risk that conditions change or unanticipated circumstances occur such that actual events turn out differently than as anticipated in this document, which is intended to be used as a reasonable indicator of potential outcomes rather than as a precise prediction of future events. Nothing contained in this report, express or implied, shall confer rights or remedies upon, or create any contractual relationship with, or cause of action in favor of, any third party relying upon this document. In no event shall Coriolis Consulting Corp. be liable to O2 Planning + Design Inc., the Town of Okotoks, or any third party for any indirect, incidental, special, or consequential damages whatsoever, including lost revenues or profits. 114 PAGE 3 DRAFT

132 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS 2.0 Okotoks in the Regional Context The Town of Okotoks is located approximately 45 km south of Downtown Calgary and 20 km from the southern boundary of the City of Calgary. Okotoks is one of the satellite towns in the Calgary Region 1, which also includes Airdrie, Canmore, Chestermere, Cochrane, High River, Strathmore, and other nearby communities. Okotoks is part of the Calgary Regional Partnership, which is a collaborative network of 14 municipalities that voluntarily work together to ensure growth in the Calgary Region occurs in a sustainable manner. Exhibit 1: Location of Okotoks in the Calgary Region Source: Prepared by Coriolis Consulting. 1 We use the same definition of the Calgary Region as was used by the Calgary Regional Partnership to prepare its long-term population projections for the Calgary Metropolitan Plan, which includes Airdrie, Banff, Bighorn, Black Diamond, City of Calgary, Canmore, Chestermere, Cochrane, Crossfield, Foothills, High River, Irricana, Nanton, Okotoks, Rocky View, Strathmore, Turner Valley, Wheatland, and the townsite of Redwood Meadows. Note that this definition of the Calgary Region does not correspond exactly to the territory of the 14 municipalities that make up the Calgary Regional Partnership i.e., population forecasts were prepared collaboratively by the 14 municipalities for a region that is slightly bigger than their combined boundaries). 115 PAGE 4 DRAFT

133 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS 3.0 Population and Household Growth Forecast for Okotoks 3.1 Past Trends Exhibits 2 and 3 show population and household growth trends in the Town of Okotoks and the Calgary Region from 2001 to The data shows that: As of 2011, Okotoks had a population of about 24,500 people, which accounted for about 2% of the total population in the Calgary Region. Okotoks population grew by about 1,300 people per year from 2001 to 2011, but growth was faster averaging almost 1,500 people per year) from 2006 to This is equivalent to an average growth rate of about 7.7% per year from 2001 to Okotoks accounted for about 4.4% of the population growth in the Calgary Region over the 10 year period. Okotoks grew by an average of about 475 households per year from 2001 to 2011, and by an average of about 530 households per year from 2006 to Household growth in Okotoks averaged 8.7% per year from 2001 to 2011, accounting for about 4.0% of the regional growth. Exhibit 2: Population Growth in Okotoks and the Calgary Region, 2001 to 2011 Population Avg. Annual Increment Avg. Annual Growth Rate %) Area Calgary Region 1,026,398 1,170,358 1,319,441 28,792 29,817 29, % 2.4% 2.5% Okotoks 11,664 17,145 24,511 1,096 1,473 1, % 7.4% 7.7% Okotoks' share of Calgary Region 1.14% 1.46% 1.86% 3.81% 4.94% 4.38% N/A Source: 2001, 2006 and 2011 Census, Statistics Canada. The data does not include census undercounts. Exhibit 3: Household Growth in Okotoks and the Calgary Region, 2001 to 2011 Households Avg. Annual Increment Avg. Annual Growth Rate %) Area Calgary Region 383, , ,727 13,117 10,820 11, % 2.3% 2.8% Okotoks 3,660 5,760 8, % 7.9% 8.7% Okotoks' share of Calgary Region 0.96% 1.28% 1.68% 3.20% 4.92% 3.98% N/A Source: 2001, 2006 and 2011 Census, Statistics Canada. The data does not include census undercounts. Exhibit 4 shows the average household size in Okotoks and the Calgary Region from 2001 to The data shows that: The average household size in Okotoks declined from 3.2 persons per household in 2001 to 2.9 persons per household in 2011, which is a larger decline than in the Calgary Region. 116 PAGE 5 DRAFT

134 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS During the same period, average household size in the Calgary Region decreased from 2.7 persons per household in 2001 to 2.6 persons per household in Exhibit 4: Average Household Size in Okotoks and the Calgary Region, 2001 to 2011 Area Calgary Region Okotoks Source: 2001, 2006 and 2011 Census, Statistics Canada. 3.2 Forecast Available Projections Exhibit 5 shows population projections for the Town of Okotoks and the Calgary Region prepared by the Calgary Regional Partnership for the period from 2019 to The forecasts indicate that: The Calgary Region is expected to grow at a slower pace over the long term than it has over the past ten years. The forecast suggests that the regional growth will decline gradually from about 2.6% per year during to about 0.8% per year by The Calgary Region grew by an average annual rate of about 2.5% from 2001 to Okotoks is expected to capture about 2.96% of the regional population growth from 2011 to 2019 and 2.06% from 2019 to This is lower than the Town s share of regional growth over the past decade about 4.4% from 2001 to 2011). Okotoks population is expected to grow at an average rate of approximately 3.9% per year from 2011 to 2019, 1.5% per year from 2019 to 2029, 1.2% per year from 2029 to 2039, and 0.8% per year from 2039 to 2076, reaching about 58,300 residents by This is slower than the Town s annual average population growth rate over the past decade 7.7% per year from 2001 to 2011). Exhibit 5: Calgary Regional Partnership Population Growth Forecasts, 2019 to 2076 Population a Estimate Population Forecast Average Annual Increment Calgary Region 1,319,441 1,616,530 1,885,018 2,120,539 2,831,090 37,136 26,849 23,552 19,204 Okotoks 24,511 33,311 38,843 43,696 58,338 1, Okotoks' share of Calgary Region 1.86% 2.06% 2.06% 2.06% 2.06% 2.96% 2.06% 2.06% 2.06% Average annual growth rate %) Calgary Region 2.6% 1.5% 1.2% 0.8% Okotoks 3.9% 1.5% 1.2% 0.8% Source: The population figures are from the Calgary Area Population Assumptions by Municipality prepared by the Calgary Regional Partnership for the Calgary Metropolitan Plan. The annual increment and average annual growth rate figures were calculated by Coriolis. Note a): The 2011 population figures are from the 2011 census and are adjusted to account for census undercounts by 1.32%, which is the adjustment rate used for the population forecast from 2019 to 2076 in the Calgary Metropolitan Plan. The 2011 figure is not contained in the Calgary Metropolitan Plan population assumptions, but we have included it in the table to illustrate the Plan s growth assumptions between now and PAGE 6 DRAFT

135 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS Projections for the Analysis The projections in this report span over a period of 60 years. Over such a long time period, it is not possible to anticipate all of the factors that will affect the Town s actual population growth. Therefore, we examined two population growth scenarios that bracket the likely range of the growth that can be anticipated in Okotoks over time. The population forecasts are based on two key assumptions: The City of Calgary will continue to capture the bulk of the residential, commercial, and industrial development of the Calgary Region. We assume that the City of Calgary has sufficient land capacity to accommodate future growth and that there will be no major land constraints to cause a material upward pressure on future development in surrounding communities. Some communities surrounding Okotoks i.e. High River) were significantly impacted by the 2013 flood. Policy and market reactions to the flood may affect the future distribution of residential development in the Region, which could have a positive impact for Okotoks. However unless the changes to land use policy and changes to the marketability of surrounding communities are dramatic), any impacts on Okotoks are likely accounted for in our high population growth scenario. The two population growth scenarios are as follows: 1. Calgary Regional Partnership CRP) Population Growth Scenario, which assumes that Okotoks share of the population growth in the Calgary Region declines from about 4% the average over the past decade) to 2.3% by 2043 and to 2.0% by This is the forecast prepared by the Calgary Regional Partnership for the Calgary Metropolitan Plan. Based on input from the Town, our understanding is that this projection assumed that the Town's capacity to accommodate additional residential development would constrain growth. Therefore, this scenario likely understates potential growth if the Town proceeds with annexation of additional lands. 2. Continued Share of Regional Population Growth Scenario, which assumes that Okotoks continues to capture a share of about 4% of population growth in the Calgary Region during the entire forecast period. Exhibits 6 CRP scenario) and 7 continued share of regional population growth scenario) show the population and household forecasts from 2011 to The forecasts suggest that: In the CRP scenario, the population of Okotoks is forecasted to grow by about 30,500 people from 2013 to 2073, reaching a total population of about 57,000 people in This is equivalent to an average incremental growth of about 500 people per year over the entire forecast period, although growth is expected to be higher in the short/medium term i.e., averaging about 620 people per year from 2013 to 2043) and lower over time i.e., averaging about 400 people per year from 2043 to 2073). In this scenario, Okotoks will add about 13,700 households during the forecast period, reaching a total of about 22,800 households by In the continued share of regional population growth scenario, Okotoks is forecasted to grow by about 55,100 people from 2013 to 2073, reaching a total population of about 82,150 people by This is equivalent to average incremental growth of about 920 people per year over the entire forecast period, although growth is expected to be higher in the short/medium term i.e., averaging about 1,065 people per year from 2013 to 2043) and lower in the long term i.e., averaging about 770 people per year from 2043 to 2073). In this scenario, Okotoks will add about 23,560 households during the forecast period, reaching a total of about 32,860 households by PAGE 7 DRAFT

136 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS Exhibit 6: Okotoks Population and Household Forecast CRP Population Growth Scenario Low) Entire Period: Okotoks' Share of the Calgary Region's Population Growth %) 2.84% 2.33% 2.06% 2.22% 2011 a 2013 b 2043 c 2073 c Population: Calgary Region 1,319,441 1,388,156 2,187,835 2,765,524 Okotoks 24,511 26,465 45,083 56,987 Average Household Size: d Okotoks Households: Okotoks 8,423 9,094 17,340 22,795 Average Annual Increment Total Growth: Population Growth: Calgary Region 34,358 26,656 19,256 1,377,367 Okotoks ,522 Household Growth: Okotoks ,700 Notes: a) The 2011 population figures are from the 2011 federal census. We included the 2011 figure because it is the most recent census figure available from the federal census. b) The 2013 population and household figures are our estimates based on the 2011 census figures and the growth rate implied by the 2019 population forecast prepared by the Calgary Regional Partnership for the Calgary Region. c) The 2043 and 2073 population and household figures are our estimates based on the growth rate implied by the 2029, 2039 and 2076 population forecast prepared by the Calgary Regional Partnership for the Calgary Region. d) The household size forecasts for Okotoks are based on an assumption that the average household size starts at 2.9 persons per household i.e. the current average) and declines gradually to 2.5 over the forecast period. This is consistent with historic trends and the assumptions used by the Calgary Regional Partnership. 119 PAGE 8 DRAFT

137 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS Exhibit 7: Okotoks Population and Household Forecast Continued Share of Regional Population Growth Scenario High) Entire Period: Okotoks' Share of the Calgary Region's Population Growth %) 3.71% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% Population: 2011 a 2013 b 2043 c 2073 c Calgary Region 1,319,441 1,388,156 2,187,835 2,765,524 Okotoks 24,511 27,057 59,044 82,152 Average Household Size: d Okotoks Households: Okotoks 8,423 9,298 22,709 32,861 Population Growth: Average Annual Increment Total Growth: Calgary Region 34,358 26,656 19,256 1,377,367 Okotoks 1,273 1, ,095 Household Growth: Okotoks ,563 Notes: a) The 2011 population figures are from the 2011 federal census. We included the 2011 figure because it is the most recent census figure available from the federal census. b) The 2013 population and household figures are our estimates based on the 2011 census figures and the growth rate implied by the 2019 population forecast prepared by the Calgary Regional Partnership for the Calgary Region. c) The 2043 and 2073 population and household figures are our estimates based on the growth rate implied by the 2029, 2039 and 2076 population forecast prepared by the Calgary Regional Partnership for the Calgary Region. d) The household size forecasts for Okotoks are based on an assumption that the average household size starts at 2.9 persons per household i.e. the current average) and declines gradually to 2.5 over the forecast period. This is consistent with historic trends and the assumptions used by the Calgary Regional Partnership. 120 PAGE 9 DRAFT

138 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS 4.0 Residential Development Outlook In this section we: Analyze historic trends in housing starts data by unit type i.e. single-detached, attached, and apartment). Forecast housing demand by type. Determine appropriate densities to apply to our forecasts of housing demand by unit type. Calculate projected residential land requirements based on our demand forecast and density assumptions. 4.1 Past Residential Trends We examined housing start data for Okotoks to identify past development trends by housing type in the Town. We also analyzed the share of housing starts by type in the City of Calgary as a whole and in suburban areas of Calgary as an indicator of the upper limit on a reasonable expectation for the multifamily share of housing starts in Okotoks Historic Housing Starts by Type in Okotoks Exhibit 8 shows housing starts data for Okotoks. The data shows that: Housing starts in Okotoks averaged 478 starts per year from 2004 to 2012, but ranged from 210 to 312 starts per year over the past five years. Single detached starts form the primary housing type in Okotoks, accounting for 72.5% of all housing starts from 2004 to The share was even higher 91%) in the most recent five year period. Multifamily starts semi-detached, rows, and apartment units) accounted for 27.5% of all housing starts in Okotoks from 2004 to 2012 although this share was significantly lower over the past five years 9% from 2008 to 2012). From 2004 to 2012, about 60% of the multifamily starts were apartments units and the balance were semi-detached and row/townhouse units. Apartment starts in Okotoks averaged 79 units per year from 2004 to 2012, accounting for 16.5% of all starts. However, there were no apartment starts in Okotoks in the past five years. 121 PAGE 10 DRAFT

139 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS Exhibit 8: Housing Starts by Type in Okotoks, 2004 to 2012 Housing Starts Single Detached Semi- Detached Row/ Townhouse Apartments & others Total Housing Starts Subtotal of Multifamily Starts Semidetached, row & apartments) Total Annual Average , , , % of Total Starts by Type Single Detached 65.2% 74.2% 73.9% 48.2% 75.4% 93.6% 96.2% 97.2% 96.2% 72.5% Semi- Detached 9.6% 6.0% 8.8% 6.7% 5.2% 6.4% 3.8% 2.8% 3.8% 6.7% Row/ Townhouse 10.3% 2.3% 0.6% 6.4% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% Apartments & others 14.9% 17.5% 16.7% 38.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% Total Housing Starts 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Subtotal of Multifamily Starts Semidetached, row & apartments) 34.8% 25.8% 26.1% 51.8% 24.6% 6.4% 3.8% 2.8% 3.8% 27.5% Source: CMHC Housing Now Reports for the Prairie Region, Historic Starts by Type in the City of Calgary Exhibit 9 shows the share of total starts by type for the entire City of Calgary and for Suburban Calgary i.e. the City of Calgary excluding the City Centre and the Beltline areas), where the built environment is more similar in nature to that of Okotoks. We use this data as an indicator of potential upper limit on the multifamily share of housing starts that could be expected in Okotoks over the very long term. The data shows that: Single detached units accounted for about 54% of total housing starts in the City of Calgary and 63% of total housing starts in Suburban Calgary from 2005 to Overall, multifamily starts accounted for about 46% of all starts in Calgary and about 37% in Suburban Calgary over the 8 year period. Attached housing starts i.e., semi-detached and row/townhouse units) accounted for about 17% of all starts in the City of Calgary and 16% in Suburban Calgary from 2005 to PAGE 11 DRAFT

140 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS Apartment unit starts accounted for about 29% of total starts in the City of Calgary and 20% in Suburban Calgary in the past 8 years. Exhibit 9: Housing Starts by Type in the City of Calgary and Suburban Calgary, 2005 to 2012 Entire City of Calgary Incl. Centre and Beltline) Single Detached 62.2% 59.4% 53.8% 34.1% 74.9% 59.6% 50.3% 44.2% 53.9% Semi-Detached 6.9% 7.1% 6.6% 6.2% 13.8% 11.3% 9.7% 9.0% 8.2% Row 8.0% 4.9% 8.5% 5.0% 4.1% 11.4% 13.4% 13.1% 8.4% Apartment 22.6% 28.5% 30.7% 54.7% 6.3% 17.3% 26.7% 33.3% 29.1% Other 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Subtotal of Multifamily Semi-Detached, Row & Apartment) 37.6% 40.5% 45.8% 65.9% 24.2% 40.0% 49.7% 55.5% 45.8% Suburban Calgary Excl. City Centre and Beltline) Single Detached 68.2% 66.8% 60.7% 58.6% 78.1% 67.0% 57.1% 51.3% 63.2% Semi-Detached 5.4% 5.5% 4.1% 7.3% 12.3% 9.2% 6.3% 5.5% 6.4% Row 8.3% 5.7% 9.8% 8.4% 4.3% 13.5% 15.8% 15.7% 10.00% Apartment 18.0% 21.9% 25.1% 25.6% 4.3% 9.7% 20.7% 27.1% 20.1% Other 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.00% 0.4% 0.3% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Subtotal of Multifamily Semi-Detached, Row & Apartment) 31.7% 33.2% 38.9% 41.3% 20.9% 32.4% 42.9% 48.3% 36.5% Source: Data is from the Calgary Residential Construction Digest Canada 2005 to 2012, as reported by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation CMHC). The percentages are calculated by Coriolis Projected Demand by Housing Type Based on our population forecasts and on indicators of past development trends in Okotoks and the City of Calgary, we determine a housing demand forecast for Okotoks. We considered the following factors in determining the projected housing mix for Okotoks: A declining household size will create a higher demand for apartment units during the forecast period. The pace of population growth is likely to slow down in the Calgary Region in the next decade or so, and will continue to slow further over time. Demand for apartment units associated with rapid growth will become less significant over time. The impact of downsizing baby boomer households, which creates higher demand for apartment units, is likely to decline over the second half of the forecast period. Okotoks will continue to be a suburban satellite community in the Calgary Region. Single detached housing will account for a decreasing share of total housing demand over the longer term due to a 123 PAGE 12 DRAFT

141 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS combination of demographics aging population, decreasing household size), increasing house prices, and lifestyle reasons, but single detached homes will remain the primary housing type. Okotoks will not have major land constraints that would limit the development of new single detached homes i.e. our forecast assumes lands will be annexed to accommodate continued growth). Single detached homes will remain affordable in Okotoks from a regional perspective). Exhibits 10 and 11 show our two housing demand forecasts for Okotoks a low and a high scenario).the forecasts suggest that: Total housing demand in Okotoks will average in the range of 275 to 450 units per year from 2013 to 2043 and 180 to 340 units per year from 2043 to This represents total housing demand in the range of 13,700 to 23,600 units over the entire forecast period 2013 to 2073). Single detached units will remain the primary housing type in Okotoks during the entire forecast period, but the single detached share of new residential development will decline gradually from 70% on average during 2013 to 2043 to about 62.5% on average during 2043 to 2073, which represents an average share of 67% during the entire forecast period. The average annual demand for new single detached units is, therefore, projected to be in the range of 190 to 315 units per year from 2013 to 2043 and 115 to 210 units per year from 2043 to This would yield a total of about 9,200 to 15,800 single detached units during the entire forecast period. Attached units will account for about 10% of total housing demand in the short/medium term and will increase gradually to account for about 12.5% of the demand by This represents an average of about 25 to 45 units per year from 2013 to 2043 and 25 to 40 units per year from 2043 to This would yield a total of about 1,500 to 2,600 attached units during the entire forecast period. Apartments units will account for a higher share of housing demand over time, increasing from a share of about 20% during 2013 to 2043 to a share of about 25% during 2043 to 2073, which represents an average share of 22% of total demand during the entire forecast period. The average annual demand for new apartment units is projected to be about 55 to 90 units per year from 2013 to 2043 and 45 to 85 units per year from 2043 to This would yield a total of about 3,000 to 5,200 apartment units during the entire forecast period. 124 PAGE 13 DRAFT

142 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS Exhibit 10: Housing Demand Forecast by Type in Okotoks, 2013 to 2073 CRP Population Growth Scenario Low Demand Scenario) Average Annual Increment Total Growth from Number of New Households a ,700 Share of Total Housing Demand by Type %) b Total Growth from Single Detached 70.0% 62.5% 67.0% Attached Row & Semi-Detached) 10.0% 12.5% 11.0% Apartment 20.0% 25.0% 22.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Average Annual Demand Number of Units) Total Growth from Single Detached ,181 Attached Row & Semi-Detached) ,506 Apartment ,013 Total ,700 Exhibit 11: Housing Demand Forecast by Type in Okotoks, 2013 to 2073 Continued Share of Regional Population Growth Scenario High Demand Scenario) Average Annual Increment Total Growth from Number of New Households a ,563 Share of Total Housing Demand by Type %) b Total Growth from Single Detached 70.0% 62.5% 67.0% Attached Row & Semi-Detached) 10.0% 12.5% 11.0% Apartment 20.0% 25.0% 22.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Average Annual Demand Number of Units) Total Growth from Single Detached ,790 Attached Row & Semi-Detached) ,591 Apartment ,182 Total ,563 Notes for Exhibit 10 and 11: a) Based on the population and household forecasts presented in Exhibits 6 and 7 Section 3.2). b) The share of housing demand by type is an average over each period and is rounded. We assume that the share of multifamily attached and apartments) will gradually increase during the forecast period, but single detached homes will remain the primary housing type in the community. 125 PAGE 14 DRAFT

143 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS 4.3 Average Density of New Residential Development We reviewed the Town s existing Land-Use Bylaw, recent development projects in Okotoks, and information provided by O2 Planning + Design to determine reasonable assumptions about the likely density of future residential development in Okotoks, which we apply for the entire forecasting period 2013 to 2073). We make the following assumptions: Single detached units: We assume two single-detached lot size scenarios a lower and higher density scenario). The low density scenario average of 6,000 sq. ft. per lot) is based on the typical lot size for singledetached lots currently marketing in Okotoks, which mainly range from about 4,000 sq.ft. to 8,000 sq.ft. although some are larger). The high density scenario average of 4,250 sq. per lot) is based on the density assumption provided by O2 Design + Planning. We understand that this density assumption is based on the Calgary Metropolitan Plan density target for the Calgary Region. Attached units: We assume a density of 42 units per hectare. This density assumption was provided by O2 Design + Planning. This matches the base density for attached housing in the Town's Land-Use Bylaw R- 3 and R-3AR Land-Use Districts). Apartment units: We assume a density of 87 units per hectare. This density assumption was provided by O2 Design + Planning. This matches the midpoint density between the base density of 75 units per hectare without underground parking) and the maximum density of 98 units per hectare with underground parking) based on the Town s Land-Use Bylaw R-3 and R-3AR Land-Use Districts). Exhibit 12 summarizes these assumptions. Note that these represent the net developable density i.e. they do not include a gross-up for roads, rights-of-way, municipal and school reserves, and land needed for storm water management). Exhibit 12: Assumed Average Density of New Residential Development by Type Net Developable) Density Units per hectare) Type Low-Density Scenario High-Density Scenario Single Detached Attached Row & Semi-Detached) 42 Apartment Projected Residential Land Requirements Exhibits 13 and 14 show the projected residential land requirements based on our housing demand forecasts presented in Section 4.2 and our assumptions about the average density of new residential development by type presented in Section 4.3. The forecasts suggest that: Net developable residential land requirements will average about 9 to 20 hectares per year during 2013 to 2043 and 6 to 14 hectares per year between 2043 and This represents a total residential land requirement in the range of 266 to 584 hectares in the short/medium term 2013 to 2043) and 167 to 412 hectares in the long term 2043 to 2073), or 433 to 996 hectares over the entire forecast period. 126 PAGE 15 DRAFT

144 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS New single detached homes will account for the largest share of the land requirements throughout the entire forecast period, requiring 228 to 522 hectares in the short/medium term ) and 135 to 352 hectares in the long term 2043 to 2073). This yields a total range of about 363 to 874 hectares of land for new single detached development during the entire forecast period. Development of new attached homes will require about 20 to 32 hectares in the short/medium term 2013 to 2043) and 16 to 30 hectares over the long term 2043 to 2073), totalling about 36 to 62 hectares of net developable land over the entire forecast period. Development of new apartment units will require about 19 to 31 hectares in the short/medium term 2013 to 2043) and 16 to 29 hectares over the long term 2043 to 2073), or 35 to 60 hectares of net developable land over the entire forecast period. Exhibit 13: Net Developable Residential Land Requirements in Okotoks, 2013 to 2073 CRP Population Growth Scenario Low Demand) Average Annual Land Requirements in Hectares) Low Density Entire Period: Single Detached Attached Row and Semi-Detached) Apartment Total Total Land Requirements in Hectares) Entire Period: Single Detached Attached Row and Semi-Detached) Apartment Total Average Annual Land Requirements in Hectares) High Density Entire Period: Single Detached Attached Row and Semi-Detached) Apartment Total Total Land Requirements in Hectares) Single Detached Attached Row and Semi-Detached) Apartment Total Notes: The land requirement forecast is based on the low housing demand forecast presented in Exhibit 10 Section 4.2) and the density assumptions presented in Exhibit PAGE 16 DRAFT

145 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS Exhibit 14: Residential Net Developable Land Requirements in Okotoks, 2013 to 2073 Continued Share of Regional Population Growth Scenario High Demand) Average Annual Land Requirements in Hectares) Low Density Entire Period: Single Detached Attached Row and Semi-Detached) Apartment Total Total Land Requirements in Hectares) Single Detached Attached Row and Semi-Detached) Apartment Total Average Annual Land Requirements in Hectares) High Density Entire Period: Single Detached Attached Row and Semi-Detached) Apartment Total Total Land Requirements in Hectares) Single Detached Attached Row and Semi-Detached) Apartment Total Notes: The land requirement forecast is based on the continued share of regional population growth scenario demand housing forecast presented in Exhibit 11 Section 4.2) and the density assumptions presented in Exhibit PAGE 17 DRAFT

146 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS 5.0 Commercial Development Outlook In this section, we describe the existing commercial situation in Okotoks, define the primary trade area for commercial space in Okotoks, forecast future commercial floorspace growth in Okotoks, and translate this into future land requirements. 5.1 Current Commercial Situation As of June 2013, there was a total of 1,663,749 square feet of commercial floorspace in Okotoks. 2 This figure includes retail, service, and office space. The commercial floorspace in Okotoks is mainly concentrated in the Olde Towne shopping district and in the shopping centres along Northridge and Southridge Drive and Highway 7. In addition to locally-serving retailers and services, the Town is also home to several regional scale retailers, including Canadian Tire, Wal-mart Supercentre, Home Depot, Winners, Costco, Staples, and others. The presence of several regional-scale retailers in Okotoks confirms its role as the commercial centre for the surrounding communities in the trade area. 5.2 Okotoks Trade Area and Implications for Forecasting Commercial Potential in Okotoks Definition of the Primary Trade Area As a major retail and service centre in the southern part of the Calgary Region, Okotoks serves a market that is much larger than just the Town s boundaries. Based on the locations of major retailers in surrounding communities and transportation routes, we define Okotoks primary trade area to include the communities for which Okotoks is the most convenient retail centre. The primary trade area includes the Town of Okotoks, Black Diamond, Foothills No. 31, High River, Nanton, and Turner Valley but for most retailers) excludes the southern part of the City of Calgary which is wellserved with retail and service businesses. Exhibit 15 shows a map of the primary trade area for Okotoks. The trade area had a 2013 population of about 73,000 people see Exhibit 16 in Section 5.2.2). Some of the major retail businesses in Okotoks draw additional customers from a much broader secondary trade area that could include parts of South Calgary and other communities outside the primary trade area). For example, the Okotoks Costco is likely a more convenient location for many South Calgary residents than the nearest Calgary Costco which is near Deerfoot Trail and Heritage Drive). 2 Based on the floorspace inventory data provided by the Town of Okotoks as of June PAGE 18 DRAFT

147 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS Exhibit 15: Map of the Primary Trade Area for Okotoks Source: Coriolis Consulting Corp Commercial Floorspace Demand in Okotoks The available inventory of commercial floorspace in Okotoks includes retail, service, and office floorspace. Therefore, we have elected to use floorspace per capita ratios as a means of comparing demand and supply, rather than using retail expenditure forecasts, because available retail sales data does not include services e.g. restaurants, hair care) or office type business. Okotoks is the commercial service centre for the primary trade area we defined in Section above. Exhibit 16 shows the total existing commercial floorspace inventory in Okotoks and the commercial floorspace per capita ratio based on the current primary trade area population and the existing amount of commercial floorspace in the Town. The data shows that there is about 23 square feet of retail, service, and office floorspace in Okotoks per primary trade area resident the existing supply). Based on our knowledge of typical commercial floorspace per capita ratios in communities of this size and with a similar role in a trade area, this is a reasonable figure so we assume that the market is currently at equilibrium. It is important to note that some businesses in Okotoks e.g., Costco) draw spending from residents who live outside the primary trade area. This has an upward influence on the existing ratio of commercial space per primary trade area resident. In the absence of this inflow spending, the Town would have a lower ratio 130 PAGE 19 DRAFT

148 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS of commercial space per primary trade area resident. In other words, the existing ratio of 23 sq.ft. per capita captures the existing inflow spending to Okotoks from residents of the broader secondary trade area. To maintain this ratio over time, inflow spending from the secondary trade area will need to grow at a similar pace as spending from primary trade area residents. Exhibit 16: Existing Total Commercial Floorspace Demand for the Town of Okotoks Population/Floorspace Total amount of commercial floorspace in 2013 in sq.ft.) 1,663,749 Primary trade area population in 2013: Okotoks a 27,057 Surrounding areas in primary trade area 45,654 Primary trade area total 72,711 Existing commercial floorspace per capita ratio in sq.ft. i.e. ratio of 22.9 commercial sq.ft. in Okotoks per trade area resident) Notes: a) The 2013 population figure for Okotoks is from our continued share of regional population growth forecast presented in Exhibit 7. In our view, the existing floorspace inventory and patterns of commercial development in Okotoks and the Calgary Region indicate that: Okotoks is retaining almost all of its local convenience retail and personal services demand; the community has a large array of locally-oriented businesses so we expect that there is little leakage of convenience purchases. Okotoks likely draws a significant share, but not all, of the surrounding primary trade area s convenience retail potential. Residents of the surrounding area probably make some of their shopping trips to Okotoks, other communities in the primary trade area, and Calgary. Okotoks is retaining a share of its regional/destination and comparison shopping demand e.g. department store, clothing, home furnishings). However, primary trade area residents in Okotoks and other surrounding communities) likely export a share of their regional destination and comparison shopping demand to Calgary shopping centres because, although there are several destination retailers in Okotoks e.g., Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Canadian Tire, Winners, Staples), the supply of regional and specialty retail is more complete and diverse in Calgary. Okotoks probably retains much of its locally-oriented office demand, but the fact that many Okotoks residents work in Calgary means that some of the demand for medical/dental, insurance, accounting, legal, and other locally-oriented office businesses is likely exported to Calgary. 5.3 Future Commercial Floorspace Potential in Okotoks We calculate the potential amount of commercial floorspace growth in Okotoks in these steps: 1. We forecast the primary trade area population low and high scenarios) for 2013, 2043, and 2073, using the forecast of growth in Okotoks in Section 3.0 and available forecasts for the surrounding areas. 131 PAGE 20 DRAFT

149 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS 2. We apply an estimated supportable commercial floorspace per capita ratio to the primary trade area population 3 for each year of the forecast period to calculate the amount of supportable commercial floorspace and the implied floorspace growth. To determine a reasonable estimate of the supportable commercial floorspace in Okotoks per primary trade area resident for the commercial demand projections, we considered the following: Okotoks is already capturing a high share of retail and service expenditures by residents of the Town and residents of the surrounding communities. Okotoks will likely continue to function as the main commercial centre for the surrounding communities in the primary trade area as none of these communities are anticipated to grow to the point that they will support the regional-scale retail and service businesses such as those that are currently located in Okotoks e.g., Costco, Wal-mart Super Centre, Staples, Home Depot). Therefore, Okotoks will continue to capture a high share of retail and service spending by its primary trade area residents. The boundaries of the primary trade area for commercial floorspace demand in Okotoks will likely remain the same during the entire forecast period as there are no major changes to the regional highway system being considered that would change the comparative accessibility of Okotoks. Some Okotoks businesses will continue to benefit from inflow spending from a broad secondary trade area that includes parts of South Calgary. Population growth and inflow spending) in the secondary trade area will continue to support regional oriented retail and service businesses in Okotoks. We think this is reasonable because Okotoks will continue to be a very convenient location for the growing South Calgary communities. If the share of total retail spending in Okotoks supported by inflow from the secondary trade area declines in terms of share, not total dollars), then the supportable space per capita in Okotoks would decline. Leakage i.e., the share of commercial floorspace potential that is exported to Calgary) will likely remain constant over time. We think this is reasonable because the supply of regional and specialty retail will continue to be more complete and diverse in Calgary so trade area residents will continue to export a share of their spending particularly on destination and comparison goods) to Calgary. Overall, we think it is reasonable to assume that Okotoks will continue to support roughly 23 sq.ft. of commercial space per primary trade area resident over the long term. Exhibits 17 and 18 show our low and high forecast of future commercial floorspace potential in Okotoks in 2013, 2043, and The forecasts suggest that: In the low scenario, the commercial floorspace inventory in Okotoks is expected to grow from 1.7 million square feet in 2013 to about 3.8 million square feet in 2073, which represents growth of about 2.1 million square feet of additional commercial space. In the high scenario, the commercial floorspace inventory in Okotoks is expected to grow from 1.7 million square feet in 2013 to about 4.4 million square feet in 2073, which represents growth of about 2.7 million square feet of additional commercial space. 3 The floorspace per capita in Okotoks could also be expressed over the combined primary and secondary trade area population. However, this would result in a lower floorspace per capita ratio due to the larger population in the broader area) and would not necessarily result in a higher commercial floorspace demand forecast. 132 PAGE 21 DRAFT

150 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS Exhibit 17: Estimate of Future Commercial Floorspace Potential in Okotoks Low Scenario Population: Okotoks a 26,465 45,083 56,987 Surrounding areas b 45,654 86, ,026 Trade area total c 72, , ,013 Commercial floorspace per capita ratio in sq.ft Supportable commercial floorspace in sq.ft. rounded) 1,663,749 3,020,678 3,818,299 Notes: a) The population forecast for Okotoks is our low population forecast as presented in Exhibit 6 Section 3.2). b) Population growth for the communities in the surrounding trade area outside the Town of Okotoks) is based on the assumed growth rate between 2019, 2039, and 2076 in the forecasts for each community prepared by the Calgary Regional Partnership for the Calgary Metropolitan Plan.. c) The trade area total population is the sum of the Okotoks and surrounding areas population forecasts. Exhibit 18: Estimate of Future Commercial Floorspace Potential in Okotoks High Scenario Population: Okotoks a 27,057 59,044 82,152 Surrounding areas b 45,654 86, ,026 Trade area total c 72, , ,178 Commercial floorspace per capita ratio in sq.ft Supportable commercial floorspace in sq.ft. rounded) 1,663,749 3,341,791 4,397,089 Notes: a) The population forecast for Okotoks is our high population projection as presented in Exhibit 7 Section 3.2). b) Population growth for the communities in the surrounding trade area outside the Town of Okotoks) is based on the assumed growth rate between 2019, 2039, and 2076 in the forecasts for each community prepared by the Calgary Regional Partnership for the Calgary Metropolitan Plan. c) The trade area total population is the sum of the Okotoks and surrounding areas population forecasts. 5.4 Projected Commercial Land Requirements Based on the estimate of potential future commercial floorspace growth in Okotoks, we estimated the net developable projected commercial land requirements. We use an assumed average density for new commercial development of 0.30 Floor Area Ratio FAR) to 0.35 Floor Area Ratio FAR) on the net developable land area. This assumes that most of the floorspace development is for retail and service space at about 0.25 to 0.30 FAR) with some higher density office development. Exhibits 19 and 20 show our forecasts of future commercial land requirements in Okotoks based on the CRP population growth scenario and the continued share of regional population growth scenario. The forecasts suggest that: The total net developable commercial land requirements will be in the range of 36 to 52 hectares in the short-medium term ) and in the range of 21 to 33 hectares in the long-term ), totaling 57 to 85 hectares over the entire forecast period. 133 PAGE 22 DRAFT

151 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS Exhibit 19: Forecast of Future Commercial Land Requirements in Okotoks CRP Population Growth Scenario Low Demand) Low Density Scenario Short-medium term ) Long term ) Total Demand for additional commercial floorspace in sq.ft.) a 1,356, ,620 2,154,550 Assumed FAR for commercial development Net developable commercial land requirement in hectares) b High Density Scenario Short-medium term ) Long term ) Demand for additional commercial floorspace in sq.ft.) a 1,356, ,620 2,154,550 Assumed FAR for commercial development Net developable commercial land requirement in hectares) b Notes: a) The demand for additional commercial floorspace is based on our low estimate of future commercial potential in Okotoks presented in Exhibit 17 Section 5.3). Total Exhibit 20: Forecast of Future Commercial Land Requirements in Okotoks Continued Share of Regional Population Growth Scenario High Demand) Low Density Scenario Short-medium term ) Long term ) Total Demand for additional commercial floorspace in sq.ft.) a 1,678,042 1,055,298 2,733,340 Assumed FAR for commercial development Net developable commercial land requirement in hectares) b High Density Scenario Short-medium term ) Long term ) Demand for additional commercial floorspace in sq.ft.) a 1,678,042 1,055,298 2,733,340 Assumed FAR for commercial development Net developable commercial land requirement in hectares) b Notes: a) The demand for additional commercial floorspace is based on our high estimate of future commercial potential in Okotoks presented in Exhibit 18 Section 5.3). Total 134 PAGE 23 DRAFT

152 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS 6.0 Industrial Development Outlook In this section, we describe the existing industrial situation in Okotoks, review historic trends in industrial floorspace growth, forecast future industrial floorspace growth, and translate this into future industrial land requirements for the short/medium term ) and long term ). 6.1 Current Industrial Situation As of June 2013, there was a total of about 845,000 square feet of industrial space in Okotoks 4. Industrial floorspace in Okotoks is mainly concentrated in the Okotoks Business Park and the Southbank Business Park, both of which are located along 32 nd Street. There is also additional floorspace and vacant land) located to the east of the Town near Highway 2 and Highway 2A. 6.2 Historic Trends in Industrial Floorspace Growth Exhibit 22 shows historic trends in industrial floorspace growth in Okotoks over the past 30 years from 1984 to 2013), 20 years from 1994 to 2013), and 10 years 2004 to 2013). The data shows that: Industrial floorspace growth in Okotoks averaged about 24,000 square feet per year over the past 30 years. The average annual amount of new industrial floorspace being built in Okotoks has increased over time. Industrial floorspace growth in Okotoks averaged about 29,000 square feet per year over the past 20 years but about 44,000 square feet per year looking at only the past 10 years. Exhibit 21: Historic Trends in Industrial Floorspace Growth in Okotoks 1984 to to 2013 over last 30 years) over last 20 years) Average annual industrial floorspace growth in Sq.ft.) Source: Town of Okotoks Floorspace Inventory as of June to 2013 over the last 10 years) 23,734 29,016 44,136 Based on input from Town staff, the pace of industrial floorspace growth in Okotoks may have been constrained in some years due to a lack of serviced land available for development, so long term historic averages may understate actual demand. Therefore, we examined industrial floorspace growth by year to help determine the potential upper bound on historic demand in the absence of any land supply constraints. If years with little or no industrial development are eliminated from the calculations on the basis that these years may have had a limited supply of serviced land), industrial floorspace growth averaged about 60,000 sq.ft. per year over the past decade. 6.3 Projected Industrial Floorspace Demand We considered the following regional patterns and context in producing our industrial floorspace growth projections: 4 Based on the floorspace inventory data provided by the Town of Okotoks as of June PAGE 24 DRAFT

153 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS Okotoks will remain a suburban community in the Calgary Region and its share of regional employment will likely remain stable over time. The City of Calgary will continue to capture the largest share of the regional employment growth. The City of Calgary has a large amount of vacant industrial-designated land, especially in the North/Northeast and Southeast sectors which is the nearest area to Okotoks), and will continue to accommodate the vast majority of industrial development in the Calgary Region. Industrial land is available just to the east of Okotoks along the Highway 2 and Highway 2A corridors in the MD of Foothills. The Tri Municipal Partnership with Okotoks, High River and MD Foothills) is working toward the creation of a new industrial area to the east of Okotoks in the Highway 2 and Highway 2A corridor) with the goal of attracting industrial businesses that require convenient access to the regional highway system including distribution centres and logistics companies). Based on this competitive context, we would expect future industrial floorspace growth in Okotoks to continue to occur at a pace similar to historic trends or slightly higher given the potential historic land supply constraints identified by staff). Therefore, we consider two industrial growth scenarios: A low scenario, which assumes that industrial floorspace growth will average 45,000 square feet per year over the forecast period. This is consistent with average annual industrial floorspace growth in Okotoks over the past ten years. A high scenario, which assumes that industrial floorspace growth will average 60,000 square feet per year. This is consistent with average annual industrial floorspace growth in Okotoks over the past ten years, adjusting for any constraints associated with a lack of serviced industrial land in the Town over this time period. These growth scenarios assume that Okotoks continues to primarily attract industrial businesses that serve the needs of the Town and other nearby communities. However, if Okotoks' role in the regional industrial market evolves over time, and the Town is able to attract businesses that historically have located in other parts of the region such as Southeast Calgary) growth could significantly outpace our high scenario. To attract a larger share of the regional industrial market, Okotoks would likely need to offer vacant, serviced industrial land in a location that offers convenient access to the regional highway system. Our understanding is that the Tri Municipal Partnership with Okotoks, High River and MD Foothills) is working toward the creation of a new industrial area to the east of Okotoks in the Highway 2A corridor which provides convenient access to Highway 2). If this initiative proceeds, it could bring a significant supply of industrial land to the market in a location that could be attractive to industrial businesses that serve the Calgary region or broader markets), such as warehouse and distribution or logistics companies. Our projections assume that this initiative proceeds and that any significant increase in industrial demand in the Okotoks area goes to the Highway 2/2A corridor to the east of Town. 6.4 Projected Industrial Land Requirements Exhibit 22 shows our low and high forecast of industrial land requirements for Okotoks. We assume an average density of 0.30 FAR to 0.35 FAR on net developable land area for new industrial development, which is consistent with typical densities for new industrial developments in most communities in Alberta. The forecasts suggest that: 136 PAGE 25 DRAFT

154 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS An average industrial floorspace growth of 45,000 square feet per year would yield an average land requirement of 1.2 to 1.4 hectares per year. This results in a total of about 36 to 42 hectares of industrial land needed to accommodate development over the short-medium term 2013 to 2043) and an additional 36 to 42 hectares needed over the long-term 2043 to 2073), for a total requirement of 72 to 84 hectares of industrial land over the entire forecast period 2013 to 2073). An average industrial floorspace growth of 60,000 square feet per year would yield an average land requirement of 1.6 to 1.9 hectares per year. This results in a total of about 48 to 56 hectares of industrial land needed to accommodate development over the short-medium term 2013 to 2043) and an additional 48 to 56 hectares needed over the long-term 2043 to 2073), for a total of 96 to 112 hectares of industrial land over the entire forecast period 2013 to 2073). Exhibit 22: Forecast of Future Net Developable Industrial Land Requirements in Okotoks Assumed average annual industrial floorspace growth in sq.ft. 45,000 60,000 Density Scenarios Low High Low High Assumed Average FAR for industrial development Industrial land requirements in hectares): Average annual Short-Medium Term i.e ) Long-Term i.e ) Total over the entire forecast period i.e ) PAGE 26 DRAFT

155 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS 7.0 Summary of Net Land Requirements Exhibits 23 and 24 summarize our low and high net developable land requirement forecasts by land-use for Okotoks from 2013 to The forecasts indicate that: Net Residential Land Requirements: A total of about 266 to 584 hectares are needed to accommodate expected residential demand in the short-medium term and an additional 167 to 412 hectares are needed in the long-term, totalling on the order of 433 to 996 gross hectares during the entire forecast period. Net Commercial Land Requirements: A total of about 36 to 52 hectares are needed to accommodate projected commercial growth in the short-medium term and an additional 21 to 33 hectares are needed in the long-term, totalling on the order of 57 to 85 hectares during the entire forecast period. Net Industrial Land Requirements: A total of about 36 to 56 hectares are needed to accommodate projected industrial growth in the short-medium term and an additional 36 to 56 hectares are needed in the long-term, totalling on the order of 72 to 112 hectares during the entire forecast period. Total Net Land Requirements: The total land requirement i.e., the sum of residential, commercial, and industrial land requirements) is forecasted to be about 338 to 692 hectares in the short-medium term and an additional 224 to 500 hectares in the long-term, totalling on the order of 562 to 1,192 hectares over the entire forecast period. 138 PAGE 27 DRAFT

156 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS Exhibit 23: Summary of Land Requirements by Land-Use in Okotoks Lower Scenario a A: Low Density Scenario Net Developable Land Requirements in Hectares) by Type Use Total Single-Detached Residential Attached Apartment Total Residential Commercial Total Commercial Industrial Total Industrial Total Total Net Land Area Required B: High Density Scenario Net Developable Land Requirements in Hectares) by Type Use Total Single-Detached Residential Attached Apartment Total Residential Commercial Total Commercial Industrial Total Industrial Total Total Net Land Area Required Notes: a) The lower scenario assumes the CRP Population Growth Scenario and the lower industrial floorspace growth scenario 45,000 sq.ft. per year). 139 PAGE 28 DRAFT

157 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS Exhibit 24: Summary of Land Requirements by Land-Use in Okotoks - Higher Scenario a A: Low Density Scenario Net Developable Land Requirements in Hectares) by Type Use Total Single-Detached Residential Attached Apartment Total Residential Commercial Total Commercial Industrial Total Industrial Total Total Net Land Area Required ,192 B: High Density Scenario Net Developable Land Requirements in Hectares) by Type Use Total Single-Detached Residential Attached Apartment Total Residential Commercial Total Commercial Industrial Total Industrial Total Total Net Land Area Required Notes: a) The higher scenario assumes the continued share of regional population growth scenario and the lower industrial floorspace growth scenario 60,000 sq.ft. per year). 140 PAGE 29 DRAFT

158 INPUTS TO TOWN OF OKOTOKS GROWTH STUDY: LAND REQUIREMENT FORECASTS 8.0 Implications Our projections have the following implications for the Okotoks Growth Study: In the short/medium term ), we project that a total of about 338 to 692 hectares of net land area will be needed to accommodate continued growth. In the long-term ), we project that continued residential, commercial, and industrial growth in Okotoks will result in the need for an additional 224 to 500 hectares of net land area. Combined, we project that a total of about 562 to 1192 hectares of net land area will be required to accommodate residential, commercial and industrial growth to These figures should be grossed-up to account for the additional land that will be required for road rights-of-way, municipal reserves parks and schools), environmentally sensitive areas, recreational uses, community facilities and institutional development. Existing undeveloped land within the Town's existing boundaries can be used to accommodate a portion of the estimated gross land requirement so any vacant developable land should be deducted when determining the total amount of land that should be annexed to accommodate growth to From a market perspective, given that a portion of residential demand in Okotoks comes from people living in Okotoks but working in Calgary, and given that the Town and M.D. of Foothills appear to be planning for a commercial corridor at the northern entrance of the Town, the annexation corridor on the north side of Okotoks may be the preferred option in the short to medium term. 141 PAGE 30 DRAFT

159 142

160 APPENDIX B: Water Infrastructure Impact Analysis

161 144

162 Okotoks Water Infrastructure & February

163 Table of Contents Table of Contents... 1 Executive Summary... 2 Treated Water from Calgary for north Okotoks... 3 Water Infrastructure Improvements for north Okotoks... 7 Raw Water from the Bow River to a new WTP in north Okotoks... 8 Water Infrastructure Improvements for north Okotoks...12 Raw Water from the Highwood River for north Okotoks Water Consumption Potable Water Reservoir Storage Reservoir Storage for North Okotoks given treated water from Calgary...19 Reservoir Storage for North Okotoks with Raw Water from the Bow River...20 Reservoir Storage in South Okotoks...20 Servicing South Okotoks following Annexation Water Supply...21 Water Infrastructure Improvements for south Okotoks...26 Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

164 Executive Summary Future water infrastructure costs in north Okotoks will be affected by the water supply option chosen by the Town of Okotoks. BSEI s Conceptual Water Servicing Review July 28, 2013) has three water source supply options. In option 1, treated water from Calgary will enter north Okotoks on 32 nd Street. With option 2, raw water from the Bow river would enter north Okotoks on 48 th Street and then west along 338 th Avenue. In option 3, raw water from the Highwood river would enter north Okotoks along 338 th Avenue. These new water sources could supply Okotoks entire water supply or north Okotoks, with the existing Sheep River WTP supplying south Okotoks. BSEI s report projects keeping the Sheep River WTP in service and supplementing Okotoks water supply from another source, is several million dollars less expensive for all three water source options. Since the supplemental option is less expensive for each water source, this study discusses the water infrastructure needed for the three supplemental water supply options. The relative water infrastructure costs in north Okotoks for each supplemental water supply option are summarized in the following table: Option Description Cost 1 Treated Water from Calgary for north Okotoks $20,600,000 2 Raw water from the Bow river for north Okotoks $15,000,000 3 Raw water from the Highwood river for north Okotoks $15,000,000 The higher distribution and transmission costs associated with supplying north Okotoks with treated water from Calgary is driven by potable water storage volumes in the event of a service outage on the treated water supply line from Calgary. Higher volumes of storage should reduce the per unit cost of constructing reservoir storage. Future water infrastructure costs in south Okotoks are largely unaffected by the water supply option chosen by the Town of Okotoks for north Okotoks. Another $8,400,000 in water infrastructure will be needed to service annexed land in south Okotoks by Constructing reservoir storage volumes above Alberta Environment & Sustainable Resource Development s minimum recommendations will increase the servicing cost above $8,400,000. Two key decisions affect the amount of water infrastructure needed to service south Okotoks. The greatest factor is the volume of potable water storage required for south Okotoks. Minimum reservoir storage volumes defined by Alberta Environment & Sustainable Resource Development could be exceeded during high consumption periods or by operational requirements. Another factor is whether to build a new reservoir in south Okotoks or assign Zone 2 North s reservoir to south Okotoks. Choosing both of these options increases the reliability of supply in south Okotoks but greatly increases capital costs. Future transmission main requirements are difficult to determine at this time due to the unknown location of future land uses. Transmission mains will be needed to supply adequate fire flows. Future costs associated with transmission mains are susceptible to change because of Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

165 unknown land use and the differences in cost when constructing in developed areas versus undeveloped land. Without major advances in underground trenchless technology, constructing transmission mains in developed areas will remain more expensive than green field construction. Since longer term per capita daily consumption will likely change before 2043 and 2073, storage requirements and the effectiveness of emergency supply options for north Okotoks, during a three day service interruption on the transmission main from Calgary, should be reevaluated every five years. A number of assumptions influence the conclusions identified in this study. 1) Water pipelines delivering water to north Okotoks will follow the routes in BSEI Municipal Consulting Engineers Conceptual Water Servicing Review dated July 28, ) This report assumes south Okotoks will continue to be supplied from the Sheep River WTP. Therefore the water infrastructure required for the more expensive standalone options in BSEI Municipal Consulting Engineers Conceptual Water Servicing Review, are not addressed in this report. 3) Per capita demand will be 65 Imperial gallons/person/day or L/person/day as recommended by the Town of Okotoks. 4) The available water licenses from the Sheep River will continue to amount to ML/d. 5) Peak raw water extraction flow rates from the Sheep River will continue to be 13 ML/d under most stream conditions. Treated Water from Calgary for north Okotoks BSEI s Conceptual Water Servicing Review, Option 1 Treated water from Calgary would be supplied to Okotoks by a pipeline along the Highway 2 right of way and the 32 nd Street right of way to north Okotoks. The pipeline would fill potable water storage reservoirs in north Okotoks. The highest elevation on the treated water pipeline route, within the 60 year annexation boundary, is 1,155m. This area is located on the west side of 32 nd Street, approximately 400m south of the 32 nd Street Rowland Field Aerodrome. This airfield is immediately north of the 60 year annexation boundary. Figure 1 shows the 32 nd Street pipeline route from Calgary and an efficient location for the required potable water storage. The 30 and 60 year annexation land in north Okotoks is displayed in green on this figure. Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

166 Figure 1: Treated Water from Calgary Since treated water must be pumped over a high elevation ridge north of 322 nd Avenue, Okotoks should build its potable water storage close to the highest elevation of the pipeline to minimize pumping costs in the transmission and distribution system. This would allow Okotoks to maximize the use of the energy already expended pumping water to the future Town boundary. Storage at the 1,155m + elevation, south of the Rowland Field aerodrome, will allow Okotoks to minimize the energy spent supplying potable water to north Okotoks. Elevation data suggests this is the most sustainable location for treated water storage with this water servicing option. Constructing treated storage at these elevations would permit developed areas lower than Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

167 1,120m in elevation, to be gravity fed using dedicated transmission mains. Land ownership or a utility right of way prior to annexation, would have to be obtained from the M.D. of Foothills to utilize the significant hydraulic advantages of the site. Development south of 338 th Avenue, and some development east of 32 nd Street and north of 338 th Avenue, could be gravity fed if potable water storage was built at 32 nd Street, just south of 322 nd Avenue. Two transmission mains from the potable water storage at 32 nd Street & 322 nd Avenue, south to 338 th Avenue will be needed to supply north Okotoks. The transmission mains must be constructed at least 4m apart. This should permit maintenance and repair activities on one transmission main while the other is still pressurized and in service. The second transmission main is recommended for reliability of supply. Figure 2 displays future pressure zone boundaries and major water infrastructure needed to service north Okotoks. Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

168 151 Figure 2: Water infrastructure needed to supply north Okotoks following annexation Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc.

169 The transmission distance from the potable water storage on 32 nd Street & 322 nd Avenue, south to 338 th Avenue is 1600m one mile). A pumping facility, next to the water storage, will be needed to service development in north Okotoks at elevations of 1,165-1,140m. This land is displayed as Zone 6 North in Figure 2. Most 1,140m + elevations are located in the 60 year annexation plan. But there is a small area of land above 1,140m in the 30 year annexation window adjacent to 32 nd Street. This land is the southernmost portion of Zone 6 North. A booster station near the dedicated gravity fed transmission mains along 32 nd Street is needed to service 1,140-1,120m elevations in north Okotoks. This area is displayed as Zone 5 North in Figure 2.The facility would boost the pressure in the gravity fed lines to the appropriate service pressures of this future pressure zone. Supplying zones 1-4 of north Okotoks through the future gravity fed transmission mains on 32 nd Street could utilize existing pressure reducing valves PRV) between existing pressure zones. Zone 4 North would not require pressure reduction from the 32 nd Street gravity fed transmission mains. The Crystal Ridge booster pumps that currently boost the pressure from Zone 3 North to Zone 4 North, could be decommissioned but pump equipment may be needed for emergency supply to the north during an outage of the transmission main from Calgary. The facility could house pressure reduction equipment to continue utilizing the building. Water would then flow from Zone 4 North to Zone 3 North through pressure reduction equipment. The pressure from the gravity fed transmission mains on 32 nd Street could be reduced when supplying Zone 3 North. Some lower areas in Zone 3 North may require an in-building PRV on their service line. Two example areas are north of Milligan Drive & Downey Road and the south east corner of quarter section 35 TWP-020 RGE-29 MER-4 which is the quarter section east of the Okotoks Air Ranch. The existing PRVs between Zone 3 North and Zone 2 North are required to prevent over pressurizing Zone 2 North. Zone 2 North connections to the gravity fed transmission main on 32 nd Street should have pressure reduction. The existing PRVs between Zone 2 North and Zone 1 North are also required under this servicing philosophy. For pressure zones 3 North, 2 North, and 1 North, Okotoks could explore the feasibility of reaction turbines to generate electricity from the substantial pressure in the gravity fed transmission network. Reaction turbines, like a centrifugal pump as turbine PAT) could reduce the pressure to the normal servicing range while generating electricity. Water Infrastructure Improvements for north Okotoks The following water infrastructure improvements for north Okotoks are needed to service the potential annexation lands: 1) Treated water storage near 32 nd Street & 322 nd Avenue. Reservoir storage volumes are discussed in the section Potable Water Reservoir Storage. 2) Zone 6 North pumping facility near 32 nd Street & 322 nd Avenue, for elevations above 1,140m. Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

170 3) Zone 5 North pumping facility along 32 nd Street, north of 338 th Avenue. Location to be determined by development staging. 4) Two transmission mains from the treated water storage site to 338 th Avenue. The combined length is 3,200m. A water main on 32 nd Street, between 338 th Avenue to Crystal Ridge Gate/Drake Landing Drive, is also recommended. Its length is 2,200m. Table 1: High level cost estimate for Option 1 Treated water from Calgary for north Okotoks Required Water Infrastructure Estimated per unit cost Required Estimated Cost by 2073 Treated water storage $1,000,000/ML 11.2 ML $11,200,000 Pumping facility $2,000,000 2 $4,000,000 Transmission mains $1,000/m prior to development 5,400m $5,400,000 Total = $20,600,000* *This amount could increase depending on the emergency supply option chosen for north Okotoks should the transmission main from Calgary go out of service for three days. The total cost could drop if the per capita daily water consumption in Okotoks continues to fall with increased water conservation. The water infrastructure requirements for Option 1, if the Sheep River WTP was decommissioned, is not discussed in this report since BSEI predicts this option is 64.7 million dollars more expensive in their July 28, 2013 Conceptual Water Servicing Review. The annexation areas for south Okotoks are discussed in the section Servicing South Okotoks following Annexation. Raw Water from the Bow River to a new WTP in north Okotoks BSEI s Conceptual Water Servicing Review, Option 2B: The Sheep River supplies south Okotoks and the Bow River north Okotoks Raw water from the Bow River would be supplied to Okotoks by a pipeline along the 48 th Street right of way and the 338 th Avenue right of way to 32 nd Street and 338 th Avenue. The pipeline would fill raw water storage reservoirs near this intersection. A new water treatment plant WTP) would treat the raw water. The highest elevation along the raw water pipeline route is over 1,120m, on 48 th Street, 1 km north of 338 th Avenue. This is one potential location for the new WTP and raw water storage. This land is in the 60 year annexation plan. Constructing storage at this location would greatly minimize the pumping required to service north Okotoks. Another location for the new WTP and raw water storage, in the 30 year annexation plan, is 32 nd Street on the north side of 338 th Avenue. Constructing storage at this location would also greatly minimize the pumping required to service north Okotoks. The servicing philosophy for a new WTP located at 32 nd Street, on the north side of 338 th Street, is pictured in Figure 3: Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

171 154 Figure 3: Water infrastructure to distribute treated water from a new WTP in north Okotoks Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc.

172 This servicing philosophy requires a transmission main on 32 nd Street from the new WTP, south to Drake Landing Drive 2,300m). The transmission main would connect to Zone 2 North s distribution system at the intersections of 32 nd Street & Drake Landing Court and 32 nd Street & Drake Landing Drive. Zone 2 North would be gravity fed from the new WTP near 32 nd Street and 338 th Avenue. The potable water storage must be built at a ground elevation of 1,120m or higher to gravity feed Zone 2 North. The existing pressure reducing valves PRVs) between Zone 3 North and Zone 2 North at Centre Avenue & Milligan Drive and Downey Road & Milligan Drive are needed for backup supply to Zone 2 North and to supplement fire flows in Zone 2 North. Zone 1 North can be fed via the existing 3 PRVs between Zone 2 North and Zone 1 North. A feasibility study could be performed to ascertain the technical and economic viability of replacing the Crystal Ridge Drive PRV with a reaction turbine to generate electricity. The reaction turbine would reduce the higher pressure from Zone 2 North to the normal servicing range of Zone 1 North and generate electricity. Zone 3 North and Zone 2 North reservoirs could operate in one of two ways. The first option is to use Zone 3 North and Zone 2 North reservoirs to reduce pumping power costs for south Okotoks and allocate additional reservoir storage for south Okotoks. Zone 3 North reservoir and Zone 2 North reservoir would serve as reservoirs for south Okotoks using existing infrastructure and the dedicated transmission mains planned in the immediate future. Treated water from the Sheep River WTP would be pumped into Zone 3 North reservoir and Zone 2 North reservoir through the existing dedicated fill mains and transfer pumps at the Sheep River WTP. This pumping would only occur at night between the hours of 11pm and 6am when the power pool price for electricity is extremely low. During the day, between the hours of 6am and 11pm, the dedicated mains between the Sheep River WTP and Zone 2 North and Zone 3 North reservoirs would gravity feed booster pumps at the Sheep River WTP. Because of the incoming pressure, the booster pumps at the Sheep River WTP would require less energy to meet the required service pressures for Zone 1 South. The existing distribution pumps for Zone 1 South would supply night time demands to south Okotoks. The second option is to fill Zone 3 North reservoir and Zone 2 North reservoir from the existing distribution system and hold their storage for less than one week. Chlorine residuals would be monitored to determine the optimal period for this storage. The new 338 th Avenue reservoir would gravity feed to Zone 2 North and Zone 1 North, through the dedicated transmission main on 32 nd Street. At a predetermined chlorine residual, Zone 3 North and Zone 2 North reservoirs would pump back into their respective zones using existing pumps. After the reservoirs are emptied, water from the 338 th Avenue site would once again supply Zone 3 North and Zone 2 North and refill the reservoirs. Zone 2 North reservoir will eventually be needed for south Okotoks prior to 2043, unless a new reservoir is built in south Okotoks. One pumping facility at the 32 nd Street & 338 th Avenue reservoir would supply future growth areas with 1,140-1,120m elevations. This pressure zone is called Zone 5 North in figure 3. The pumping facility would house a second set of pumps to service elevations between 1,120-1,100m. This pressure zone is named Zone 4 North in figure 3. The Crystal Ridge booster station, along Crystal Shores Road, would no longer be required. Zone 3 North would remain its Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

173 own pressure zone. The Crystal Ridge booster station building should house a PRV to provide emergency supply to Zone 3 North from Zone 4 North. The Crystal Ridge booster station appears in figure 4 below. Figure 4: Crystal Ridge booster station next to 22 Crystal Shores Road) A second pumping facility along 32 nd Street and the south edge of Zone 3 North would draw from the dedicated transmission main on 32 nd Street and boost into Zone 3 North. This booster station could then discharge into a 300mm PVC water main running both east and west on Milligan Drive, giving the booster station the strongest distribution capacity into Zone 3 North. The wide 32 nd Street right of way and the existing storm water management facility east of 32 nd Street should provide adequate space for a pumping facility. A third pumping facility, near 32 nd Street and 800m north of the new WTP, would boost service pressures to supply elevations in the 1,140-1,165m range. This pressure zone appears in figure 3 as Zone 6 North. The proposed river intake for the Bow River is located on the extension of 32 nd Street. The raw Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

174 Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc. 12 water pipeline enters Okotoks on 48 th Street because the pipeline travels one mile east. The reason for this is not discussed in BSEI s report. It could be driven by a lack of right of ways or topographical challenges routing the pipeline out of the Bow River valley, etc. Changes to the routing of this raw water pipeline could greatly affect servicing. If the pipeline route entered Okotoks on 32 nd Street, serving could follow the concept proposed in option 1. This would place the new WTP and raw water storage near the north edge of the 60 year annexation land. A 32 nd Street route might increase the energy costs of the raw water pipeline but reduce the energy consumption distributing and transmitting potable water to residents and businesses. A 32 nd Street route, from the river intake to Okotoks would reduce the pipeline s length one mile. Water Infrastructure Improvements for north Okotoks The following water infrastructure improvements for north Okotoks are needed to service the potential annexation lands if raw water is obtained from the Bow River: 1) Raw water storage at 32 nd Street on the north side of 338 th Avenue. 2) New WTP at 32 nd Street on the north side of 338 th Avenue. 3) Potable water storage next to the new WTP for CT and demand balancing. 4) Pumping facility at 32 nd Street and 338 th Avenue for elevations between 1,120-1,140m Zone 5 North) and 1,100m-1,120m Zone 4 North). 5) A pumping facility along 32 nd Street and the south edge of Zone 3 North would draw from the dedicated main on 32 nd Street and boost into Zone 3 North. 6) Pumping facility along 32 nd Street, approximately 800m north of 338 th Avenue for elevations between 1,140-1,165m Zone 6 North). Location to be determined by development staging. 7) Transmission mains on 32 nd Street from the new WTP site north of 338 th Avenue. The combined estimated length is 3,000m. water pipeline enters Okotoks on 48 th Street because the pipeline travels one mile east. The reason for this is not discussed in BSEI s report. It could be driven by a lack of right of ways or topographical challenges routing the pipeline out of the Bow River valley, etc. Changes to the routing of this raw water pipeline could greatly affect servicing. If the pipeline route entered Okotoks on 32 nd Street, serving could follow the concept proposed in option 1. This would place the new WTP and raw water storage near the north edge of the 60 year annexation land. A 32 nd Street route might increase the energy costs of the raw water pipeline but reduce the energy consumption distributing and transmitting potable water to residents and businesses. A 32 nd Street route, from the river intake to Okotoks would reduce the pipeline s length one mile. Water Infrastructure Improvements for north Okotoks The following water infrastructure improvements for north Okotoks are needed to service the potential annexation lands if raw water is obtained from the Bow River: 1) Raw water storage at 32 nd Street on the north side of 338 th Avenue. 2) New WTP at 32 nd Street on the north side of 338 th Avenue. 3) Potable water storage next to the new WTP for CT and demand balancing. 4) Pumping facility at 32 nd Street and 338 th Avenue for elevations between 1,120-1,140m Zone 5 North) and 1,100m-1,120m Zone 4 North). 5) A pumping facility along 32 nd Street and the south edge of Zone 3 North would draw from the dedicated main on 32 nd Street and boost into Zone 3 North. 6) Pumping facility along 32 nd Street, approximately 800m north of 338 th Avenue for elevations between 1,140-1,165m Zone 6 North). Location to be determined by development staging. 7) Transmission mains on 32 nd Street from the new WTP site north of 338 th Avenue. The combined estimated length is 3,000m. Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

175 Table 2: High level cost estimate for Option 2b Raw water from the Bow River for north Okotoks Required Water Estimated per unit Estimated Cost Required by 2043 Infrastructure cost by 2043 Treated water $1,000,000/ML 3 ML to 7.8 ML* $3,000,000 storage Pumping facility $2,000,000 2 $4,000,000 Transmission mains Required Water Infrastructure Treated water storage $1,000/m prior to development Estimated per unit cost 2,200m $2,200,000 Required Total = $9,200,000 Estimated Cost $1,000,000/ML 3 ML $3,000,000 Pumping facility $2,000,000 2 $2,000,000 Transmission mains $1,000/m prior to development 800m $800,000 Total = $5,800,000 *This could be as low 3 ML if Zone 3 North reservoir remains dedicated to north Okotoks. Required reservoir volumes are Alberta Environment & Sustainable Resource Development minimums. Additional potable storage could be required for demand balancing or operational considerations. The water infrastructure requirements for Option 2A, supplying raw water from the Bow river to the existing Sheep River WTP, is not discussed in this report since BSEI predicts this option is 23 million dollars more expensive than Option 2B in their July 28, 2013 Conceptual Water Servicing Review. Raw Water from the Highwood River for north Okotoks BSEI s Conceptual Water Servicing Review, Option 3b: The Sheep River supplies south Okotoks and the Highwood River supplies north Okotoks BSEI expects option 3b with the Sheep River WTP to be several million dollars less than option 3a without the Sheep River WTP so only the future water infrastructure requirements required with option 3b are discussed in this report. The raw water pipeline for option 3b follows 338 th Avenue to 32 nd Street so a new WTP on the north side of 338 th Avenue is an optimal location for the new WTP. Servicing would then follow the servicing recommendations and infrastructure requirements discussed above in Option 2b Raw water from the Bow River for north Okotoks. Figure 5 displays the raw water pipeline route and the servicing philosophy for water from the Highwood River for north Okotoks. Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

176 159 Figure 5: Water infrastructure to distribute treated water from a new WTP in north Okotoks Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc.

177 Water Consumption Okotoks continues to actively foster awareness on the importance of minimizing water consumption and closely tracks consumption patterns to assist leak detection efforts. These measures have led to overall reductions in per capita water consumption Litres/capita/day). Okotoks 5 year average per capita daily water consumption is currently 277 L/c/d was a very low consumption year. Wet weather plus the discovery and repair of a significant leak in the water network contributed to the drop in per capita daily water consumption to 250 L/c/d. As with most North American municipalities, water consumption increases in the spring, summer and fall as outdoor water use returns. In the winter months, the October to April average winter season demand in Okotoks typically reduces to 0.91xADD, where ADD is the average day demand of the entire year. Using the 5 year average of 277 L/c/d, the average winter season demand is typically 252 L/c/d. The lowest monthly L/c/d demand in the last two years was 192 L/c/d in December Residential water use comprises a significant portion of Okotoks total water consumption. In 2012 residential customers used 86.8% of Okotoks total consumption while commercial customers used 13.2%. In 2013 residential customers used 85.3% of Okotoks total consumption while the commercial customers combined used 14.7%. Table 3 summarizes the population projections for north and south Okotoks with annexation. The population projections were completed by O2 Planning & Design. Table 3: Population estimates for Okotoks supplied by O2 Planning & Design August 2013) Estimated Population in Okotoks North South TOTAL ,808 12,249 27, ,742 28,302 59, ,004 32,148 82,152 A L/c/d water consumption will generate the daily demand listed in Table 4 based on the population projections generated by O2 Planning & Design. Table 4: Estimated Daily Demand with a per daily per capita consumption of L/c/day Estimated Daily Demand in ML/day with L/c/d North South TOTAL Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

178 To explore the effects additional water conservation can have on Okotoks water demands, daily water demand appears in Table 5 should per capita daily water consumption drop to 252 L/c/d. 252 L/c/d corresponds to the average winter season demand over the last five years. Table 5: Estimated Daily Demand with a per daily per capita consumption of 252 L/c/day Estimated Daily Demand in ML/day with 252 L/c/d North South TOTAL The implications of these ADD demand projections are discussed in the following section on potable water storage. Potable Water Reservoir Storage Reservoir storage volumes for a water distribution system are determined by operational requirements, water treatment plant capacity, demand patterns, and water supply reliability. Alberta Environment & Sustainable Resource Development has established minimum potable water storage volumes to help ensure water distribution systems can supply sufficient water for fire protection and reliably supply customers. Okotoks water distribution system currently has 1.5 times the minimum volume of storage required by Alberta Environment & Sustainable Resource Development. Using the population projections supplied by O2 Planning & Design, Table 6 summarizes the storage volumes needed to meet Alberta Environment & Sustainable Resource Development s minimum storage volumes. The storage volumes needed to match ADD are included for comparison. Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

179 Table 6: Minimum storage volumes for a per daily per capita consumption of L/c/day and 252 L/c/d. ML L/c/day North Okotoks South Okotoks AB Env. ADD AB Env. ADD AB Env. ADD L/c/day North Okotoks South Okotoks Systems supplied solely by a single regional transmission main, are encouraged to have storage volumes of at least 3 times average day demand 3xADD). When a main break occurs on a regional transmission main, this storage volume gives operators one day to locate, isolate, and drain the water main and mobilize a repair crew. One day to repair the problem and one day to flush, sample, and re-commission the water main. Repairs could easily exceed this timeframe especially when specialized parts are required. Okotoks Sheep River WTP will continue to supply water to residents but all of the Town s existing water licenses will be needed for south Okotoks before Therefore under normal operation, north Okotoks water will come from Calgary. But in an emergency outage of the water transmission main between Calgary and Okotoks, raw water withdrawal from the Sheep River could increase to 13 ML/d under most Sheep River flow conditions. Existing dedicated water mains and pumps at the Sheep River WTP, Zone 2 North reservoir, and Zone 3 North reservoir could deliver some of north Okotoks water requirements. If a three day outage occurred on the transmission main from Calgary in 2043, ADD in south Okotoks would be 8.4 ML/d. Increasing the Sheep River WTP capacity to 13 ML/d means 4.6 ML/d of north Okotoks consumption could be supplied from the Sheep River. This would leave a deficit of 4.5 ML/d in north Okotoks under ADD consumption. With Alberta Environment & Sustainable Resource Development s minimum storage of 7.8 ML in north Okotoks, north Okotoks would have 1.7 days of supply. A supplemental flow rate of 4.6 ML/d from the Sheep River WTP closely matches 2013 ADD in north Okotoks. The water infrastructure is already in place for the Sheep River WTP to supplement north Okotoks water demand in an emergency. Increasing storage volumes in Okotoks above Alberta Environment minimums, instituting demand measures to reduce non-essential water consumption, twinning the transmission main from Calgary to Okotoks for reliability, or increasing raw water well capacity to the Sheep River WTP, could maintain ADD to residents and businesses. Twinned transmission mains must be constructed at least 4m apart to permit maintenance and repair activities on one transmission main while the other is still pressurized and in service. Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

180 Table 7 shows the water infrastructure and high level costs of various mitigation options given a daily per capita demand of L/c/d. Table 7: 2043 Emergency Supply Options during a Three Day Outage from Calgary 2043 Additional Cost per unit Cost Comments Strategy Required Reservoir The additional storage could be helpful 5.7 ML $1,000,000/ML $5,700,000 storage operationally. Source: BSEI Municipal Consulting Transmission $18,200,000 Engineers Conceptual Water Servicing main twinning Review dated July 28, 2013 Raw water wells 1.9 ML/d $1,000,000/ML $1,900,000 Upgrades to the Crystal Ridge booster station could be needed to supply new growth in Zone 4 North during an emergency. If a three day outage occurred on the transmission main from Calgary in 2073, ADD in south Okotoks is projected to reach 9.5 ML/d when daily per capita consumption is L/c/d. Increasing the Sheep River WTP capacity to 13 ML/d means 3.5 ML/d of north Okotoks consumption could be supplied from the Sheep River. This would leave a deficit of 11.3 ML/d in north Okotoks under ADD consumption. With Alberta Environment & Sustainable Resource Development s minimum storage of 11.2 ML in north Okotoks, north Okotoks would have one day of supply. A supplemental flow rate of 3.5 ML/d from the Sheep River WTP is less than the 2013 ADD in north Okotoks. The water infrastructure is already in place for the Sheep River WTP to supplement this amount of water to north Okotoks in an emergency. Table 8 shows the water infrastructure and high level costs of various mitigation options given a daily per capita demand of L/c/d. Table 8: 2073 Emergency Supply Options during a Three Day Outage from Calgary 2073 Additional Cost per unit Cost Comments Strategy Required Reservoir Large volumes of storage could reduce 22.4 ML $1,000,000/ML $22,400,000 storage water quality. Source: BSEI Municipal Consulting Transmission $18,200,000 Engineers Conceptual Water Servicing main twinning Review dated July 28, 2013 Raw water flow increase 7.6 ML/d $1,000,000/ML $7,600,000 Upgrades to the Crystal Ridge booster station and Crystal Shores Road piping would be needed to supply new growth in Zone 4 North in an emergency. The 7.8 ML of minimum storage at 32 nd Street and 322 nd Avenue must be dedicated to Zone 5 & 6 North and trucked water could mitigate storage levels. Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

181 Potential Effects of Demand Measures Reducing non-essential water consumption by instituting demand measures during a transmission main outage from Calgary could substantially lower water demands. If demand measures reduced per capita daily consumption to 252 L/c/d, a consumption rate achieved over the winter months in Okotoks over the last five years without demand measures, less additional water infrastructure will be needed during a transmission main outage from Calgary. Demand measures could likely result in consumption rates below 252 L/c/d. However, 252 L/c/d should be achievable, even in the summer months, by eliminating outdoor use. If Okotoks begins to sustain an ADD consumption of 252 L/c/d, a modest demand measure prohibiting irrigation and seasonal use could drop demand below L/c/d. Since longer term per capita daily water consumption will likely change before 2043 and 2073, storage requirements, raw water flow rate restrictions to the Sheep River WTP, and the effectiveness of emergency supply options should be reevaluated every five years. Successful demand management measures and maintaining high raw water flow rates to the Sheep River WTP, should provide residents with adequate water for essential purposes in an emergency. Reservoir Storage for North Okotoks given treated water from Calgary O2 Planning & Design estimates 30,742 people will live in north Okotoks by Using a per capita demand of L/day, north Okotoks will need 7.8 ML of storage to meet Alberta Environment & Sustainable Resource Development s minimum storage requirements for the 30 year 2043) annexation timeframe. With 5.3 ML of storage at Zone 3 North reservoir, an additional 2.5 ML of storage will need to be constructed near 32 nd Street & 322 nd Avenue. By 2073, O2 Planning & Design projects the population in north Okotoks will reach 50,004. A potable water storage target of 11.2 ML is needed to meet minimum Alberta Environment & Sustainable Resource Development s storage guidelines given a per capita demand of L/day. With 5.3 ML of storage at Zone 3 North reservoir, a total of 5.9 ML of storage will need to be constructed near 32 nd Street & 322 nd Avenue. These storage volumes do not account for water loss in the distribution and transmission system. Before 2043, population growth projected in south Okotoks by O2 Planning & Design, will require more storage than is available at the Sheep River WTP. Dedicating Zone 2 North reservoir to south Okotoks is one option for meeting storage requirements south of the Sheep River so Zone 2 North reservoir s storage volume was not applied to north Okotoks in this analysis. One challenge of limiting reservoir volumes at 32 nd Street and 322 nd Avenue to 2.5 ML in 2043 and 5.9 ML by 2073 is servicing Zones 4 & 5 & 6 during a 3 day outage on the transmission main from Calgary. Upgrading the Crystal Ridge booster station and upsizing the water main from Crystal Ridge booster station to 32 nd Street allows servicing from Zone 3 North into Zone 4 North in an emergency. This leaves all of the storage at 32 nd Street and 322 nd Avenue for the smaller Zone 5 North and Zone 6 North pressure zones. Since the future populations of Zone 5 North and Zone 6 North are unknown at this time, the Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

182 storage volumes required to service them during a transmission main outage from Calgary should be reevaluated every 5 years. This will allow changes in per capita daily consumption to more precisely define minimum storage volumes needed at 32 nd Street and 322 nd Avenue ML of storage at 32 nd Street and 322 nd Avenue can be used for conservative budgeting as this meets Alberta Environment & Sustainable Resource Development s minimum storage guidelines for north Okotoks in If Zone 3 North reservoir s 5.3 ML of available storage remains allocated to north Okotoks, north Okotoks will exceed Alberta Environment & Sustainable Resource Development s minimum storage requirement. Once future per capita daily consumption numbers and Zone 5 & 6 North population projections are known, planners will be better equipped to select the most appropriate emergency supply option. A combination of demand measures, increased raw water flow rates to the Sheep River WTP, and lower per capita daily consumption, and even bulk water trucking to the 32 nd Street and 322 nd Avenue reservoir site in a supply emergency will likely reduce the storage volume at 32 nd Street and 322 nd Avenue below 11.2 ML. Reservoir Storage for North Okotoks with Raw Water from the Bow River O2 Planning & Design estimates 30,742 people will live in north Okotoks by 2043 Table 3). Constructing storage volumes equal to or greater than ADD provides some redundancy to the new WTP in north Okotoks for WTP maintenance activities. Storage volumes in excess of ADD may be required. A per capita demand of L/day, means north Okotoks will need at least 7.8 ML of potable water storage for the 30 year 2043) annexation timeframe to meet Alberta Environment & Sustainable Resource Development s minimum storage requirement. If Zone 3 North reservoir s storage remains dedicated for north Okotoks, as little as 2.5 ML of additional potable water storage will be required for north Okotoks by By 2073, O2 Planning & Design projects the population in north Okotoks will reach 50,004 Table 3). A per capita demand of L/day, will create average day demands of 15 ML. Alberta Environment & Sustainable Resource Development minimum storage recommendations rise to 11.2 ML by This population projection will require another 6 ML of new potable water storage if Zone 3 North reservoir s storage remains dedicated for north Okotoks. These storage volumes do not account for water loss in the distribution and transmission system. Before 2043, O2 Planning & Design projects the population in south Okotoks will require more potable water storage than is available at the Sheep River WTP. Dedicating Zone 2 North reservoir to south Okotoks is one option for meeting storage requirements south of the Sheep River so Zone 2 North reservoir s storage volume was not applied to north Okotoks in this analysis. Reservoir Storage in South Okotoks South Okotoks currently has 4.2 ML of potable water storage located next to the Sheep River WTP. By 2043, the minimum storage volumes, recommended by Alberta Environment & Sustainable Resource Development, in south Okotoks will reach 7.4 ML. Either the Zone 2 North reservoir 5 ML of available storage) must be dedicated to south Okotoks or a new Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

183 reservoir must be constructed in south Okotoks. Dedicating Zone 2 North Reservoir to south Okotoks will meet south Okotoks Alberta Environment storage requirement to Operational requirements and in-stream flow objectives could require volumes in excess of the minimum storage requirements recommended by Alberta Environment of 8.1 ML for south Okotoks. By 2073, the average day demand in south Okotoks of 9.5 ML/d see Table 4) will slightly exceed the combined reservoir storage of the Sheep River WTP and Zone 2 North reservoir. Both a new storage reservoir in south Okotoks and allocating Zone 2 North reservoir to south Okotoks could be required. An excellent location for a new reservoir in south Okotoks is pictured in Figure 7. This location is close to the Sheep River WTP, reducing new transmission main costs. The elevation also climbs quickly west of Westland Street and south of Big Rock Trail. A reservoir at an elevation of 1,105m could gravity feed Zone 1 South. Elevations of 1,110m are available. Zone 1 South is also relatively close to this location minimizing the length of pipe needed for a dedicated transmission main. A dedicated transmission main approximately 1,200m long would be required. Water could be pumped from the Sheep River WTP at night 11pm to 6am) to the new reservoir when the electricity power pool prices are extremely low. During the day 6am to 11pm) when electricity prices are much greater, the new reservoir could gravity feed to Zone 1 South. A pumping facility next to the new reservoir would supply the new Zone 3 South. The annexation areas for south Okotoks are discussed in section Servicing South Okotoks following Annexation. Servicing South Okotoks following Annexation The water infrastructure needed to supply south Okotoks is largely unaffected by the water supply option chosen for north Okotoks. Therefore the servicing strategy for south Okotoks is presented here in its own section. Water Supply Based on population projections provided by O2 Planning & Design, the population in south Okotoks will exceed the water licenses available from the Sheep River before Table 3 shows the estimated population in north and south Okotoks in 2043 and Currently, the available water licenses from the Sheep River amount to ML/d. Table 4 shows the estimated daily demand in Okotoks assuming a per capita demand of L/day or 65 Imperial gallons/day). Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

184 If additional water licenses cannot be obtained, south Okotoks will have to supplement its water supply with water from north Okotoks shortly before By 2043, north Okotoks must supply ML/d to south Okotoks. By 2073 this is projected to increase to ML/d. The existing dedicated water mains between the Sheep River WTP and Zone 2 North reservoir are of sufficient size to efficiently transport the required supplemental daily flow rates. Transmission capacity through Zone 1 South will require upgrades as Okotoks expands into new annexation areas. The transmission upgrades are primarily needed to supply fire flows. Additional pumping facilities are required to service the anticipated annexation areas south of the Sheep River. The location of existing pressure zone boundaries and pumping facilities in south Okotoks appear in Figure 6. Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

185 168 Figure 6: Current pressure zone boundaries in south Okotoks Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc.

186 The easternmost annexation areas in south Okotoks can be serviced from piping extended from Zone 1 South provided sufficient transmission main upgrades occur through Zone 1 South. Service pressures will be high in these annexed lands but transmission upgrades upstream will be needed to deliver sufficient fire flows. South of Hwy 7, most of the annexation area has elevations suitable for Zone 2 South so a new booster station is needed to service this area. South of Highway 7 at 32 nd Street is a potential location for this booster station because of the larger diameter water mains supplying the area north of Highway 7. An economic feasibility study should be completed to determine whether it is less expensive to convert the Westmount booster station to a Zone 2 South pumping facility and extend a water main from the Westmount booster station south of Highway 7, via the Southridge Drive right of way. This would eliminate the need for a new booster station near 32 nd Street and Highway 7. This option will increase reliability for the current Zone 2 South, which is supplied by the Big Rock booster station, as well as the expanded Zone 2 South pressure zone south of Highway 7 by allowing two pumping facilities to supply an expanded Zone 2 South. The existing Zone 3 South pressure zone, minus the Eagle Crest Point development, would become part of the enlarged Zone 2 South pressure zone. The Eagle Crest Point development would become part of a new Zone 3 South pressure zone west of Westland Street. Figure 7 displays optimal pressure zone boundaries in south Okotoks following annexation. Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc

187 170 Figure 7: Water infrastructure to supply south Okotoks after annexation Water Distribution & Transmission, EPCOR Water Services Inc.