Dr. Patrick Berbon Technologies Propres Le seul futur possible. China Materialia ( 遨问 ),

Transcription

1 Café des Sciences Samedi 3 Juillet 2010 Dr. Patrick Berbon Technologies Propres Le seul futur possible China Materialia ( 遨问 ), Shanghai and Wuxi, China California Clean Technologies ( 遨问旧金山 ), San Francisco, California

2 Good to meet you all Bonjour a tous Hello everyone 欢迎大家

3 Dr. Patrick Berbon ( 白瑞 ) Engineering degree Ecole Centrale Lyon, France, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China Ph.D. Materials Science, USC, Los Angeles Aerospace research Rockwell Start-up in Nanotechnology Technology Transfer / Innovation / Performance Improvement Clean Technologies Shanghai and Wuxi, China

4 Some Numbers( 一些数据 ) US China 20 tons CO2 / year / person 1 ton CO2 / year / person Cargo ships Air travel 4.5% world CO2 2.5% world CO2 From the peak of the last ice age to now, sea levels increased 140 meters. for free quote on solar electricity systems. Systems starting at $7,

5 Growth! The Bad news. And the Good. ( 增长! 坏消息. 好消息.) Growth rate of electricity consumption and generation is tremendous, doubling every 33 years currently, and accelerating due to Emerging Economies growth rates. At current rate of energy and resource utilization, by the end of the 21 st Century, humans will require the resources of FIVE Earth! Marc Porat concept of going from 6B people to 6B Americans! At same time, decisions made now to grow renewable energy sources for example can have a HUGE impact due to new capacity coming online

6 Earth s Surface Temperature( 地球表面温度 ) We are at 385 ppm Increasing at +2.5 ppm annually At 450 ppm CO2 we will trigger potentially irreversible glacial melt and sea level rise out of humanity s control Adapted from Marc Porat presentation We will reach 450 ppm in F 6 C +2.7 F 1.8 C Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

7 Temperature and sea-level rise ( 温度和海平面的确上升 ) Greenland 5m Temperature Change C O Sea Level Rise meters Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Adapted from Marc Porat presentation

8 The year 2012 (2012 年 ) Maya calendar The date December 21st, 2012 A.D. ( in the Long Count), represents an extremely close conjunction of the Winter Solstice Sun with the crossing point of the Galactic Equator (Equator of the Milky Way) and the Ecliptic (path of the Sun). This is an event that has been coming to resonance very slowly over thousands and thousands of years. It will come to resolution at exactly 11:11 am GMT. Solar spots Solar activity rises and falls in 11- year cycles, swinging back and forth between times of quiet and storminess. Right now the sun is quiet. We're near the end of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked in Solar Cycle 24, should begin "any time now," returning the sun to a stormy state.

9 Clean Technologies. Dites moi. Tell me. 告诉我. Technologies Propres??? Clean Technologies??? 清洁技术, 环保技术???

10 Clean Technologies. Dites moi. Tell me. 告诉我. Solar power ( 太阳能 ), Water treatment ( 水处理 ), Natural gas ( 天然气 ), Wind ( 风 ), Geothermal ( 地热 ), Biomass ( 单位面积或体积内的 ) 生物量, Recycling ( 回收, 再循环 ), Worm farms ( 蠕虫农场 ), Hydrogen ( 氢气 ), Fuel cells ( 燃料电池 ), Composting ( 堆制肥料 ), Insulation ( 绝缘 ), Conservation ( 保持, 保护, 保存 ), LEED ( 在能源和环境设计的领导 ), Gray water ( 可在利用污水 ), Efficiency ( 效率 ), Biofuel ( 生物燃料 ), Clean solvents ( 清洁溶剂 ), Pesticides ( 杀虫剂 ), Hybrid car ( 混合动力汽车 ).

11 The CCT Framework(CCT 框架 ) Bio-Materials and Waste Treatment Sustainable Agriculture and Foresting Transportation Bio-fuels and Electrical Clean Water Air Pollution Control Efficiency Improvements through Materials and Processes Renewable Electricity Generation Green Buildings

12 The CCT Framework(CCT 框架 ) 生物材料和废物处理 可持续的农业与林业 电力和生物燃料传输 清洁的水 空气污染控制 可再生电力 通过新材料与工艺使效率得以提高 绿色环保建筑

13 The Three Wars( 三类战争 ) Vinod Khosla Venture Capitalist, Influential Thinker War on Coal; War on Oil; War on Efficiency; Compact Fluorescent bulb Chevron refinery in Burnaby, BC Coal fired power plant

14 Bio-fuels for Transportation ( 利用生物能源的交通 )

15 Biomass( 生物质 ) Huge amount of potential energy stored in Earth biomass. Biomass in the world

16 Burning of Rain Forests Brazil and Indonesia ( 燃烧热带雨林 - 巴西和印度尼西亚 ) US and Germany due to energy intensity, China and India due to size of population, Russia due to oil and gas, Brazil and Indonesia due to burning of the rain forest.

17 Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation in the US in 2007 (2007 年美国发电的类型 ) Total generation 4,200 BkWh (AIE Outlook)

18 Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation in the World 2006 (2006 年全球发电类型 ) Total generation 18,930 BkWh (source: IEA)

19 Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation in China in 2007 (2007 年中国发电类型 ) Total generation 3,042 BkWh (source: US EIA)

20 Renewable Electricity Generation( 可再生电能 ) Replacement for burning of hydrocarbons, primarily coal and natural gas, to generate electricity. The key drivers and technologies in this quadrant are: Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS); Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity; Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) (solar thermal); Wind power; Geothermal power; Biomass; The Grid Electricity transmission; Clean coal; Free from Coal

21 Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Electricity( 光伏发电 ) Solar PV panels directly convert the photons from the sun into electron/hole pairs inside a semiconductor, that create DC electricity. Started on single-crystal silicon material, then moved on polycrystalline silicon (less efficient but less costly) and amorphous silicon. Now moving onto thin film semiconductors, such as Copper Indium Gallium DiSelenide (CIGS) and Cadmium Telluride (CdTe). Average Si-cell efficiency 17%. Efficiency improvements make PV solar a good choice in more and more applications. DARPA Very High Efficiency Solar Cell $30M program targeting 50%; Race to high-volume, low-cost manufacturing, following semiconductor business model. Applied Materials big player. Current cost $7 / W installed; Distributed generation at POU; Manufacturing output growing very fast: 1GW in 2004, 1.5GW in 2005, and 2GW in % growth rate anticipated. Clear leader for remote electricity generation. Bypasses the utilities, or has negative impact on them Sharp 175W polycrystalline Silicon panel

22 Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Electricity( 光伏发电 ) A large number of well-known companies: Sharp ($1B PV panel business, 400MW capacity), Kyocera, Q-Cells (Germany, 200MW capacity), Sun Power (including installer PowerLight $330M purchase), Suntech Power (Wuxi, China), First Solar (CdTe, 300MW capacity), Evergreen Solar (String Ribbon Wafers), Applied Materials, Miasole (sputtering), Solaria (3 suns CPV), Nanosolar (PV ink printing, announced 460MW capacity); Very large investments by companies and VCs; Winning price point at $2 / installed W, equivalent to $5K for typical 2.5 kw residential system, or 10c/kWh; Solar energy reaching Earth each day is 8,000 times daily energy used in world; Silicon-based PV panels on roof

23 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) (Solar Thermal) ( 聚焦式太阳能发电 ) Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants are utility-scale generators that produce electricity by using mirrors to concentrate the sun's energy and either convert it into high-temperature heat to drive turbines or engines, or focus it on high-efficiency photovoltaic cells. Very high solar-to-electric conversion efficiencies. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) has been around for years and has been demonstrated (SEGS plants in Southern California). Four main technical approaches to CSP: Parabolic troughs: parabolic mirrors; Solar towers: heliostats and boiler; Dish Sterling engine assemblies; Concentrated PV; The seven SEGS parabolic trough plants at Kramer junction, California, have been generating electricity it since the early 1990s with 350MW of installed capacity.

24 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) (Solar Thermal) ( 聚焦式太阳能发电 ) The CSP technologies are best suited for large scale generation. It produces dispachable (always on) electricity when used with a thermal intermediary. It is cost-competitive with today s technology. It does not change the business model for utilities. Some of the limitations are that the moving parts make systems more complex. Regular car engine runs 5K hours (200K miles at 40 mph). Need run 50K hours (~10 years). It is inherently centralized generation, and very large capital investments are necessary. The 11MW PS10 solar power tower near Sevilla, Spain, uses 624 heliostats, and started operation in March 2007 Some of the companies in the field are: Luz, BrightSource Energy (Arnold Goldman, $160M VC raised, 900 MW PPA from PG&E, solar tower), Ausra ($40M VC raised, flat Fresnel reflectors, direct steam), Energy Innovations (CPV), Stirling Energy Systems, Acciona (Spain, Solargenix, Nevada Solar One 75MW, trough); Leading utilities pushing the technologies are PG&E (San Francisco) and Austin Energy; Dish Stirling engine

25 Clean Energy Limitations( 清洁能源的局限性 ) Major Impediments to Growth of Clean Energy?

26 Clean Energy Limitations Ask Customers ( 局限性 - 询问顾客 ) Environment is understood Answers: 1- Not sure it works. 2- Where to buy it? 3- Cost. 4- Alternative lifestyle (eat organic, dress in hemp)

27 Clean Energy Limitations Policy Decisions / Economic factors( 局限性 - 政策规定 / 经济因素 ) Need adoption of international conventions; Entrenched large businesses and government administrations; Complexity of Intellectual Property positions as many new clean technologies are at the cross-roads of various technological fields; Renewable energy projects require large capital expenditures (pay for fuel upfront); Investors not yet convinced of good ROI;

28 Examples of Successful Implementations ( 成功安装的例子 ) Acid Rains ( 酸雨 ) Hybrid electric vehicles ( 混合动力车 )

29 Acid Rains and Catalytic Converters ( 酸雨和催化转换器 ) Mainly sulfonic acid and nitric acid formed when sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) react with water and oxygen in the atmosphere. These pollutants come from primarily manmade activities: burning of fossil fuels for cars, power plants and buildings. The issue was tackled by using catalytic ti converters in cars and scrubbers in power plants. Acid rains were critical to build awareness to environmental damage done by population growth and unchecked industrial production. EPA regulations under the Clean Air Act.

30 Hybrid vehicles ( 混合动力车 ) Fastest growing segment of US vehicle market; Toyota and Honda have taken an early lead. US manufacturers working hard to catch up (on Your dime); Note that the 800K Toyota Prius in the US save about 2.3M tons CO2 / year, equivalent to ONE coal plant! Some firms, in the process of addressing climate change, will find opportunities to enhance or extend their competitive positioning by creating products (such as hybrid cars) that exploit climate-induced demand, Michael Porter and Forest Reinhart, A Strategic Approach to Climate, Harvard Business Review, October The Honda Civic Hybrid engine features i- VTEC and IMA (integrated motor assist) technology, enabling electric motor run. Presented by Honda Motor Senior Managing Director Motoatsu Shiraishi.

31 Marginal Cost of Abatement( 减少的边际成本 )

32 Marginal Cost of Abatement( 减少的边际成本 ) 50 /t CO2 0 Cum Gt CO2 eliminated Appliances Fridges / freezers Retrofit facade -150 Lighting A/C Water heating -200 Building envelope Retrofit floor/ roof Retrofit floor/roof Heaters Washers/ dryers Windows Other New-build insulation appliances many are green building materials & technologies. Adapted from Marc Porat presentation

33 Clean Energy Opportunities Green Jobs ( 清洁能源的机会 - 绿色工作 ) Some firms, in the process of addressing climate change, will find opportunities to enhance or extend their competitive positioning by creating products (such as hybrid cars) that exploit climate-inducedinduced demand, Michael Porter (2007). Thomas L. Friedman, NY Times foreign affairs columnist, Mister Conventional Wisdom, author of The World is Flat (2005) and Hot, Flat, and Crowded (2008). President Barack Obama speeches and stimulus package (2008 and 2009).

34 Your Opportunity Company ( 你的机会 - 公司 ) Measure, Act, Advertise

35 Your Opportunity You ( 你的机会 - 你自己 ) LOTS OF opportunities; HUGE opportunities; Lots of MATERIALS Problems; Position YOURSELF; Vinod Khosla: This is bigger than the internet Mark Porat: Of the next 10 Google, 8 will be in cleantech

36 Your Opportunity Education ( 你的机会 - 学习 ) Vinod Khosla: This is bigger than the internet Mark Porat: Of the next 10 Google, 8 will be in cleantech Learn all you can on the topics discussed here

37 Your Opportunity The Future is Here( 机会 - 未来就在这里 ) 4/2009: Abengoa Solar puts the largest Concentrated Solar Tower into operation near Seville, Spain; Meet the PS20: 20 MW, 1,255 heliostats, 531 ft tower;

38 Merci pour votre attention. Thank You for your attention. 谢谢大家. Dr. Patrick Berbon (Shanghai) (San Francisco) ti t i