Enhanced energy security and economic integration through regional cooperation on connectivity: Impacts and Strategies in Northeast Asia

Transcription

1 Enhanced energy security and economic integration through regional cooperation on connectivity: Impacts and Strategies in Northeast Asia The 3rd Northeast Asia Energy Security Forum The Plaza, Seoul, Republic of Korea, 17 December 2015 Hongpeng Liu, Chief Energy Security & Water Resources Section

2 Energy Scene Energy demand in Asia-Pacific is projected to grow by 2.4% a year for the next 20 years - highest in East-Asia at 4.8% ; Consumption intensity- up to 2050, urban population nearly doubles from 1.6 billion to 3.1 billion. Asia is projected to surpass the OECD before 2030 to become the world s largest energy consuming block Energy access is still a major challenge for many developing countries Environmental issues from over consumed fossil fuels Uneven distribution of energy resources within the Asia- Pacific is presents a variety of challenges at the national level in terms of supply security

3 Asia Pacific Energy Mix Mtoe Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewables (exclu. Hydro) Electricity

4 Net Fossil Fuel Imports/Exports by Subregion Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent Source: ADB, 2013

5 Electricity Demand by Subregion TWh = terawatt-hour Source: ADB, 2013

6 Carbon Dioxide Emissions by subregion ( ) Mt CO2 = million tons of carbon dioxide Source: ADB 2013

7 Electricity production by resource, East and North-East Asia (2012) Source: Asia Pacific Energy Portal with IEA data 2015

8 Energy Connectivity &Regional Integration Energy trade is currently occurring within the Asia-Pacific is primarily limited to bilateral agreements between neighboring states Regional Integration- The economically sound allocation of energy resources is likely to be more efficiently accessed and distributed using regionally integrated energy planning and trading Sub-regional activities in power grid connectivity integration: CASA 1000 and Central Asia-South Asia Regional Electricity Market SAARC Energy Ring and Market for Electricity Unified Energy System of Central Asia ASEAN Power Grid and Energy Market Integration Greater Mekong Subregion Power Market North-East Asian Super Grid and Gobitec

9 Benefits vs challenges of transboundary power trade Political Financial Economic Technical Energy security Socioenvironmental Socioenvironmental Regulatory Technical

10 Asian Energy Highway for an Integrated Asian Power Grids and Electricity Markets Promote regional power planning to enable efficient allocation of resources Promote interconnections of electricity infrastructure and harmonization of institutions Diversification of power supply & a dynamic capacity to adjust to developments in generation sourcing Enable a capacity for regional load balancing Promote competitive power trading and pooling policies

11 Strategies to Increase Interconnection Bilateral Multilateral Integrated regional power market

12 Northeast Asia: Impacts & Strategy Late-mover advantage Environmental benefits Political trust needs to be further nurtured The Belt and Road Initiativet is also extended to the Eastern part of Asia, China could become the hub of the energy system in the NEA Only possible based on mutual benefits and political trust among all countries in NEA

13 Development of subregional perspectives (NEA) What are the main obstacles at the subregional level? Political trust; Energy security and dependence concerns; Need to strengthen multilateral communication; Funding of scientific research and infrastructure development What is needed to remove these obstacles? Establishment of multilateral body/subregional institutions; Transparency in subregional multilateral agreements; Confirm commitments to move towards a regulatory document on energy cooperation as well as possible regional energy partnership structure; Establish High level intergovernmental forum to bring this topic into focus; Accumulate pool of financial resources What are the priority activities needed at the (a) national; (b) subregional; and (c) regional levels to address some of the obstacles to further promote subregional initiatives? Stronger and more Internal well-defined government commitments to broaden regional partnerships

14 Regional Vision (NEA) Based on the discussion in developing subregional perspectives, please identify how regional cooperation could facilitate accelerating subregional initiatives? Engaging major stakeholders (government, academic, private sector, technical experts); Government should be kept duly informed of these discussions In promoting such a vision, what are the strategic issues that require further studies and analysis to get the Government on board (not only Ministry of Energy but other key ministries such as the Ministry of Planning or Finance) Set up a basic framework agreement, Provide details through a report, (feasibility) to show progress, solutions and benefits to the government, to encourage the government to move forward

15 Thank you