SOLAR ENERGY. Jane Wu A STRATEGIC INDUSTRY FOR NEXT DECADES. May, 2009

Transcription

1 SOLAR ENERGY A STRATEGIC INDUSTRY FOR NEXT DECADES Jane Wu May, 2009

2 Energy

3 What Happened After the First Solar Cell World Population 2.7 B 6.7B Oil Price $2.8/barrel $35/barrel Registered Motor Vehicles 50M 270M

4 Fossil Energy Pollution 10am, Sunny, 20C Beijing, China 300,000 people die each year from ambient air pollution, mostly of heart disease and lung cancer. Source: The Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, 2003

5 Global Warming A lonely polar bear in the Arctic Ocean The Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer by Source: An Inconvenient Truth, Al Gore.

6 National Security Russia turned off the gas pipeline to Ukraine January 1, 2009

7 Social Impact Wall Street, New York, 2008 Solar industry employs 250,000 in Germany Source: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, 2006

8 Economic Growth Help create five million new jobs by strategically investing $150 billion over the next ten years to catalyze private efforts to build a clean energy future. Source:

9 Environment Awareness Conservation Wilderness Protection Sustainability Environment Justices Environment Health Environmental Protection Agency.

10 Government Support California Governor endorses 1 million solar roof project. Federal Government Investment Tax Credit. Feed in Tariff in European countries. Euro 20/20. Renewable Energy Proposal.

11 Energy Sources Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Biofuel Geothermal Wind Solar

12 Growth Electricity Consumption Source: DOE

13 US Demand

14 U.S. Energy Vulnerability

15 National Electricity Price Year c/kwh 2008E E E E E E E E * Estimate Solar is already cost competitive in some states today and will be in many more in coming years as energy prices increase nationwide

16 Sun Coverage - US vs. Germany In 2007, Germany had 52% and US had 8% solar market share

17 Solar Energy

18 Why Solar? Sun power (total power of watts to earth) Free Essentially unlimited Not localized Photovoltaic and solar thermal Direct conversion of sunlight to electricity No escalating fuel cost problem Non-polluting No waste disposal problem No noise pollution Distributed power Few watts to mega watts possible Low operating cost At site delivered low cost, standalone

19 Solar Energy Electricity Production Everywhere Grid Connected Systems Solar electricity is fed into the public grid => wherever a grid is available Micro Grid Systems Supply of a few homes up to villages, solar or hybrid systems possible => full electricity supply for rural areas Solar Home Systems Supply of single buildings to cover basic needs: light, communication, TV => basic needs for single buildings

20 Comparison of Alternative Energy Sources Too Expensive!

21 Fact about Solar Growth: more than 40% annual growth from Investment: venture capital invested more $4.5B from (1100% increase vs. 30% decreased in semiconductor) Capacity: more than 10 GW cell/module capacity worldwide. Emerging Companies: more than 200 solar ventures in the US alone. Market: from 300 MW in 2000 to about 5GW in Technologies: commercial solar cell efficiency achieved 22% (Sunpower); 18% (emitter; HIT); 11% (CdTe). Cost: panel cost reduced more than 200% from 2000.

22 National Grid Parity 2013?

23 PV Industry

24 Silicon Wafer Based Supply Chain # Competitors Barriers Gross Margins EBIT Margins ~50 ~100 ~400 ~5,00 High Medium Medium Low 0 Low 40-60% 30-40% 24-32% 22-30% 20-25% 15-20% % 15% 5-10% 3-5%

25 Supply Chain Contribution by Region While Mainland China / Taiwan now accounts for nearly half all downstream production capacity, it had less than 20% of polysilicon capacity YE2007 Silicon Feedstock Capacity YE2007 c-si Wafer Capacity Note: Mainland China is 2.5% YE2007 c-si / TF Cell Capacity YE2007 c-si Module Capacity

26 Conventional Solar Cell Patented in 1946 by Russell Ohl in Prototyped by Bell Lab in Efficiency: ca. 16.5% Non-si cell cost: $0.30/w Limitation: < 18% efficiency Advantage: low production cost and infrastructure ready In 2008, around 82% of all wafer-based silicon solar cells were produced using screen printing to form the silver front and aluminium rear contacts and chemical vapor deposition to grow silicon nitride as the antireflection coating onto the front surface.

27 Advanced Solar Cells A complete contact free cell front side 9% efficiency potential. Shadowing elimination. Surface recombination reduction. Low series resistance.

28 Conversion Efficiency Source: NREL

29 Thin Film Production Forecast ( )

30 Thin Film Platforms

31 Intellectual Properties Thin Film Source : Good Energies

32 Thin Film Industry More than 130 companies world wide (range : research to production) More 80 companies have built capacity to produce thin film panels in About 40 in Europe, 25 in China, 15 in Taiwan, 20 in USA, 8 in Japan and 10 in other regions announced the production capacity and panel production capability. About 14 companies to offer turn-key systems in 2008 World wide players: about 82 silicon based, 20 CIGS, 8 CdTe and 5 dye based

33 Thin Film Players in the US a-si/thin-si Uni-Solar MI Applied Materials CA Power Films IA Energy PV NJ MV Systems CO XsunX CA OptiSolar CA Signet Solar CA Nano PV NJ MWOE Solar OH Proto Flex CO New Solar Ventures NM Innovalight CA Nanogram CA Soltaix CA CdTe First Solar OH Primestar Solar CO AVA Solar CO Solar Fields OH Canrom NY Ascentool CA Nuvo Solar Energy CO Zia Watt Solar TX Solexant CA CIS Global Solar AZ Miasole CA Energy PV NJ Ascent Solar CO ISET CA ITN/ES CO Daystar NY Nanosolar CA Heliovolt TX Solo Power CA Solyndra CA RESI NJ Light Solar NV Ampulse TN

34 Materials Availability

35 Will Thin Film Take Off? Less polysilicon usage but high initial investment Thin-film solar cells use 1/100 th of the amount of silicon as c-si based cells Initial capital 3x 5x for Thin Film Proximity to semi / flat-panel industry Availability of turnkey production equipment More integrated supply chains Shorter value chain end-to-end partnerships prevalent Production equipment makers might capture more value? Case for co-existence Efficiency difference different markets Thin Film sparse regions, high solar exposure regions; large power plants; building materials c-si areas with panel placement constraint Many panel makers are targeting both markets

36 Thin Film Equipment Suppliers

37 Opportunity

38 Global Solar Demand

39 Solar Market Growth Forecast

40 Feed in Tariff and Tax Incentives Feed in Tariff Pioneered by Germany (Renewable Energy Act, or EEG ). Successfully adopted by many European countries, including Spain, Italy. Adopted by Canada and Korea Excess solar energy generated is feed back into the electricity grid at a pre-set rate Tariff schemes generally 20+ years Tax incentives Used successfully by Japan, emulated by the U.S. Tax credits applied to cost of solar PV systems Ex: U.S. investment tax credit (ITC) provides tax credit of 30% of total system cost for commercial systems Accelerated depreciation - Ex: U.S. 5 year accelerated depreciation Rebates that offset initial capital cost - Generally offered by States and based on $/Wp installed

41 Retooling National Grid with Renewable Energy A new renewable energy grant program intended to serve as an alternative to tax credits. Through the program, the U.S. Department of Energy will offer grants equal to 30% of a solar project's cost, if the system is placed in service during 2009 or An allowance for the federal government to enter into 30-year power purchase agreements (instead of the now-standard 10 years), the elimination of the penalty for subsidized financing for solar projects, the creation of a new loan guarantee program and a 30% investment tax credit for companies that manufacture renewable energy property or equipment.

42 Solar Startups in the US

43 A Fast Growing Industry MW 2009 > 5000MW

44 Many Opportunities. Technology developer - materials - cells - panels, - equipment Product designer Equipment (mechanical, materials, firmware, software,..) System installer Solar economist (modeling, forecasting,..) Manufacturing (logistics, process, ) Advertisement (solar magazines, PR agency,..) Construction (solar farm design, construction, planning,.) Investor (venture capital, private equity) Banker (investment, M&A)

45 Be an Economy Growth Driver Larry Page of Google Bill Gate of Microsoft Steve Jobs of Apple Joe Bezos of Amazon

46 THANK YOU

47 Solar World Broad Applications

48 Concentrators

49 Concentrated Photovoltaic Improved cell efficiency -More power from the same area Optimized optics -Reduce lost sunlight Low cost components -Structural members can be manufactured in low cost countries Heliostat -All of the above with fewer, simpler moving parts Concentrator systems are comprised of: -Optics mirror or lens -Receiver solar cell -Cooling Air or water -Tracker -Inverter Current system price is in the range of $6-8/watt (no subsidy) Goal is to get the price of a solar power plant under $3 per watt and drive generating cost to less than $0.10/kw-hr

50 Concentrated Solar Thermal Concentrating solar thermal (CST) is used to produce renewable heat or electricity (generally, in the latter case, through steam). CST systems use lenses or mirrors and tracking systems to focus a large area of sunlight into a small beam. Linear Fresnel Central Receiver Dish Sterling Parabolic Trough

51 Solar Thermal Hybrid Model Modular Heliostat Steam Turbine Supper Saturated or Dry Steam Heat Storage & Exchanger High Pressure Steam (~350C) Heat transfer Media (Oil) Hot Water Utility Water Supply Supper Heater (Conventional Fuel Heater) Low Pressure Hot Steam Hot Water Supply Heat Storage & Exchanger Cooled Water Return

52 Competitive Analysis: CSTs Technology Parabolic Dish Parabolic Trough Heliostat Tower Linear Fresnel Reflector Modular Heliostat Concentration Ratio > ~ ~ 80 Tracking Scheme 2-D moving target 1-D moving target 2-D fixed target 1-D fixed target Pseudo- 2D Optical Loss (Cosine Loss) (%) ~ 20 (~ 0) ~ 30 (~ 20) ~ 40 (~25) ~ 40 (~20) ~ 20 (~5) Thermal loss (%) (Working T) ~ 10 (750⁰C) ~ 20 (400⁰C) ~15 (550⁰C) ~30 (280⁰C) ~20 (400⁰C) Solar to thermal efficiency (%) ~ 60-70% 40-50% 40-50% 30% 50-60% Cost ($/W) > 6 ~ 4.25 ~ 4.5 ~ 3.25 ~ 0.8 Comment High cost Hard to maintain Fail to deploy Mature Need special parts, cap. Investment. Easy to manufacture parts Low cost Low efficiency Low cost high efficiency Achieved low thermal power cost: ca. $0.8/W and thermal energy cost ca. $0.015/kWh. Compare to coal generated thermal energy ~ $0.023/kWh (assume $125/ton, boiler efficiency of 80%)

53 Sunpower IBC Cell Efficiency: 22% Advantages: Long life time, high efficiency Process: Semi process Non-Si Cost: ca. $0.8/w Interdigitated back contact solar cell key design features include localized Back contacts with reduced contact recombination loss, a gridless front surface which permits optimization of light trapping and passivation. A backside metallization provides internal rear surface reflection and very low series resistance. Source: Dirk-Holger Neuhaus, Industrial Silicon Solar Cells, Advanced in OptoElectronics, Vol

54 Buried Contact Solar Cell Efficiency: 18% Advantages: Back contact but no lithography Non-Si Cost: ca. $0.4/w The primary advantages of back contact solar cell are smaller contact widths of the finger metallization. The smaller finger widths allow for closer finger spacing, which is important for emitter with a high sheet resistance of about 100 ohms/sq. New solar cells have a buried contact grid on the front side and laser fired contact on the rear side. Source: Dirk-Holger Neuhaus, Industrial Silicon Solar Cells, Advanced in OptoElectronics, Vol

55 SolarWorld Boron BSF Solar Cell An advantage of the boron BSF cell is to provide a better surface passivation and avoid wafer bowing. Siemens Solar developed the first manufacturing process. Source: Dirk-Holger Neuhaus, Industrial Silicon Solar Cells, Advanced in OptoElectronics, Vol

56 Advent Solar EWT Cell The basic idea of emitter wrap through (EWT) solar cells is to leave all metal contacts on the solar cell back side, but to use front-side emitter for additional current collection. In principal, emitter wrapping through cells are similar to IBC cells but have additional emitter on the solar cell front side and holes for the connection of the front to the back-side emitter. The efficiency: 18%. Source: Dirk-Holger Neuhaus, Industrial Silicon Solar Cells, Advanced in OptoElectronics, Vol

57 Sanyo HIT Cell Single crystalline silicon surrounded by ultra thin amorphous silicon layers. The structure minimizing defects within the p/n junction of the cell. It has superior temperature characteristics comparing to conventional c-si cells. The result is more energy produced at higher temperature. Efficiency: 20% and can be used for bifacial panels. Source: Dirk-Holger Neuhaus, Industrial Silicon Solar Cells, Advanced in OptoElectronics, Vol

58 Efficiency vs. Power Output The factors affect energy output: Temperature Sun coverage Spectrum of the environment

59 Thin Film Technologies Source: Good Energies

60 Polysilicon Price Scenarios for Grid Parity in 2010

61 Business Models Description Energy Intensive Manufacturing Intensive Requirements Pricing Leverage Fully Integrated Low-cost electricity Low-cost labor, high-volume precision manufacturing Labor Intensive Location High Moderate Low Low High Operating Leverage High Moderate Low Very Low High Up. Supply Chain Risk Low Moderate High High Low Down Supply Chain Risk Moderate High High High Low Industry Fragmenting Highly Highly Highly Fragmenting oligopoly Structure Room for oligopoly fragmented fragmented fragmented Differentiatio High High High High High n Capacity Lead Time 18 months 6 months 3 months 2 month Minimal Partially Integrated LDK, ReneSola REC, Solarworld (in 2009) Yingli, Trina