Black carbon, climate, and stoves

Transcription

1 Black carbon, climate, and stoves Tami C. Bond University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA ETHOS Conference Kirkland, WA January 30, 2010 Photo: NASA 1

2 Both complete & incomplete combustion affect the environment Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Other gases * Particulate Matter (PM) * Products of incomplete combustion (PICs): Carbon monoxide (CO), Methane (CH 4 ), Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) Indoor air pollution Outdoor air pollution (smog, ozone, poor visibility) Climate change 2

3 Many pollutants result in global change Radiative forcing (W/m 2 ) Source: IPCC, 2007 cooling warming 3

4 Continental-scale haze over the Indian Ocean Photo: V. Ramanathan 4

5 Aerosol emissions changing the Earth s reflectivity Photo: NASA (via Robert Charlson) 5

6 articles can warm or cool the climate system st particles cool the mate system ack carbon warms it, Black carbon = Warming th warming particles & oling particles are itted together! Light is reflected away yfrom Earth-- COOLING Scattering particle Almost everything that is not BC Light is absorbed and turned into heat WARMING Absorbing particle

7 cooling mplication (1) me of the expected warming due to greenhouse gases has been masked by reflective particles. Radiative forcing (W/m 2 ) Source: IPCC, 2007 cean adjustment is another reason for unrealized warming)

8 plication (2) 2007 Arctic sea ice, compared with median oving reflective erosols will increase arming. is happening ecause of air uality policies. re is some concern at the climate ystem will proceed ast t ti tipping i points.

9 trong absorption by BC causes owerful, immediate warming. 0.4 W 1 gram BC emitted = ll heater in atmosphere for 1 week 1kgCO 2 emitted =

10 eductions in greenhouse gases & black carbon re different solutions to climate change reenhouse gases (lifetime = decades) Reduced emissions affect atmospheric concentration slowly Affect snow and ice indirectly, by warming ocean & atmosphere Accumulate in atmosphere Black carbon (lifetime = days to weeks) Reduced emissions affect atmospheric concentration immediately Can melt snow and ice directly, by changing their reflectivity it

11 ontrollable BC emissions dominated y transport & residential solid fuel Power 0% Industry 11% g Transport: Road 16% Transport: Non-road 9% Residential: Other sidential: Residential: 1% Biofuel Coal 18% 4% 68.5% 0.1% 6.5% 3.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.8% 19.0% Black carbon (BC) Organic carbon (OC)

12 lean cooking would make a difference BC in Asia BC in Asia without biofuel cooking

13 arning #1: It s not so simple ther pollutants osols: rganic carbon cooling ulfate (little) cooling es: arbon monoxide warming (affects methane & ozone) rganic gases warming (forms ozone) nd of course CO 2! Other physical impacts More cloud drops smallerdrops&longer longer lifetime cooling(??) Atmospheric warming cloud burnoff or increase sign uncertain Ice clouds uncertain! Snow deposition warming

14 arning #2: Still preliminary analysis alues in the next slides will change... lease don t citeetc etc.

15 limate impact of stove emissions 100-year time horizon Wood: Open fire Wood: Trad stove Wood: ICC-Chim Wood: ICC-nChim Wood: ICC-nChim* od-3g: ICC-nChim-Fn* Pellet-3g: nch-fn* arcoal- Incl production oal- Clean production Natural gas LPG Kerosene OM SO2 Clouds CO2 CH4 N2O CO NMVOC BC Non-renew CO Global warming commitment (kg CO2-eq/GJ del) Overall Efficiency (%) dated from Bond et al, Energy for Sust. Dev., 2004 ng-lived greenhouse gases ort-lived greenhouse gases arming BC includes snow+ice Warning: Clouds are wild card;

16 portance of lab-field differences Wood: Open fire Wood: Trad stove Wood: ICC-ChimChim Wood: ICC-nChim Wood: ICC-nChim* -3g: ICC-nChim-Fn* Pellet-3g: nch-fn* oal- Incl production l- Clean production Natural gas LPG Kerosene OM SO2 Clouds CO2 CH4 N2O CO NMVOC BC Non-renew CO2 =lab only Global warming commitment (kg CO2-eq/GJ del)

17 tmospheric management: ong & short term ong-term = most impact beyond 1 year after emission e can argue about that) Long-lived (LL) 2 x ethane 2O x x x Short-lived (SL) MVOC x x rosols x (BC, OC, sulfate) x

18 IRST: Long-lived (LL) impact Wood: Open fire ood: Trad stove ood: ICC-Chim ood: ICC-nChim ood: ICC-nChim* : ICC-nChim-Fn* ellet-3g: nch-fn* l- Incl production Clean production Natural gas LPG Kerosene CO2 CH4 N2O CO NMVOC CO2 CO NMVOC Purple arrows show possible credits by present- day carbon finance (except for CO/NMVOC) Global warming commitment (kg CO2-eq/GJ delv) h shows impact on time scales longer than 1 year. NMVOCs have been divided id d into short-term (h (change in O) 3 and dlong-term

19 EXT: Short-lived (SL) gases + particles ood: Open fire od: Trad stove od: ICC-Chim d: ICC-nChim d: ICC-nChim* C-nChim-Fn* et-3g: nch-fn* Incl production an production Natural gas LPG Kerosene CO2 CH4 N2O CO NMVOC CO2 CO NMVOC All 100-yr basis (Don t forget the wild cards) Global warming commitment (kg CO2-eq/GJ delv) Wood: Open fire Wood: Trad stove Wood: ICC-Chim Wood: ICC-nChim Wood: ICC-nChim* Wood-3g: ICC-nChim-Fn* Pellet-3g: nch-fn* Charcoal- Incl production Charcoal- Clean production Natural gas LPG Kerosene OM SO2 Clouds CO NMVOC BC

20 competing intervention: Modern fuels atures of an LPG/natural gas intervention: Acceptance HIGH (Funding/price volatility uncertain) CERTAINTY in health improvement HIGH Climate trade-off for trad stove modern fuel Long-lived*: 30 kg CO2-eq/GJdel Short-lived: 100 kg CO2-eq/GJdel eq/gjdel All 100-yr basis

21 challenge for better stoves We are looking for change on the order of kgco2-eq/gjdel. Modern fuel (kgco2-eq/gjdel) LL: 30 ; ; SL: 100 For short-lived pollutants, all the heating occurs in the first year (actually, the first few days). Think of this as a shot of energy. 70 kgco2-eq/gjdel = ~100 GJ Earth/GJdel 100 kgco2-eq/gjdel =~140 GJ Earth/GJdel I call this Specific Forcing Pulse

22 hort-lived impact only Wood: Open fire Wood: Trad stove Wood: ICC-Chim Wood: ICC-nChim Wood: ICC-nChim* od-3g: ICC-nChim-Fn* Pellet-3g: nch-fn* harcoal- Incl production rcoal- Clean production Natural gas LPG Kerosene 140 GJ/GJ (two guesses for 100 GJ/GJ a standard) OM SO2 Clouds CO NMVOC BC appears to require fan prove me wrong!

23 ookstove contribution is potentially large, but If SFP = 150GJ/GJdel GJdel/cap/yr x 2 billion forcing = W/m 2 What s not to like? RISK For true mitigation, these must be robust: Efficiency + emissions (in-use = lab, or predictable) Stove system [fuel+stove+pot+user] (E & E don t change if fuel/pot altered, OR they cannot be altered) Replacement (numbers NOT enough; must replace i right h stoves) Use pattern (old stove = new stove, or predictable) Delivery chain (stove, maintenance, fuel)

24 ake-home messages limate impacts are significant large fraction from products of incomplete combustion don t forget uncertainties (still sorting out clouds) etter energy services = global atmospheric health with plenty of caveats: must be truly improved viable stove SFP ~ GJ/GJdel ncreased confidence is needed and possible! plan for monitoring with implementation

25 Questions?