Target & Roadmap for Japanese Wind Power

Transcription

1 GRE2014 V. Wind Energy / Plenary Session No Target & Roadmap for Japanese Wind Power 29 July 2014 Yokohama, Kanagawa Pref. JAPAN WIND POWER ASSOCIATION Nikaho, Akita Pref. 1

2 Who is the JWPA? The Japan Wind Power Association (JWPA) represents wind power industry in Japan. By expanding wind power in Japan, we wish to contribute to improving Japanese energy security and preventing global warming. The JWPA has been founded in companies (developers, turbine manufacturers, constructors, consultants, etc.) join JWPA at Jul JWPA s members own 85% of wind power installation in Japan. 2

3 Wind power mass introduction can reduce fossil fuel import and help Japan Japan has imported 26 billion $ of fuel in 2013 Ref: GWEC/Global Wind Day 3

4 Data from Wind Power Leading Countries Wind power capacities and ratio to total power supply at the end of 2013 Countries Wind Power Plant capacities [MW] Ratio to total power supply [%] Denmark 4, Portugal 4, Spain 22, Germany 34, U.K. 10, Sweden 4, New Zealand Netherlands 2, Italy 8, U.S.A. 61, France 8, Canada 7, China 91, Australia 3, Japan 2, Source: VAVIGANT RESEARCH World Market Update 2013 (March 2014) These countries have achieved very high wind power penetration already. JWPA s target 20% 4

5 Roadmap for the Wind Power Introduction for Japan, estimated by the JWPA Wind power shall supply 20% of Japanese electricity by FY2050. Accumulated installed capacity:11gw by 2020, 36GW by 2030, 75GW by About half of them shall be offshore wind power including floating type. - 累積導入量 [ 万 kw] 80 8, , , , , , , ,000 0 風力発電導入ロードマップ Roadmap for the introduction of : wind ビジョン power Floating 浮体式風力 offshore 着床式風力 Fixed offshore 陸上風力実績 FY GW 0.004GW 0.046GW 2.6GW FY GW 0.1GW 0.6GW 10. GW FY GW 4GW 6GW 27GW FY GW 18GW 19GW 38GW Electricity supply by wind power : 0.5% 2% 9% 20% 5

6 75GW of wind power can supply 20% of Japanese electricity in 2050 Japanese electricity demand in FY2050 : 930TWh (Base on the Scenario A at Japanese MOE s Low Carbon Society in 2050.) 930TWh 20% = 186 TWh JWPA s wind power target in 2050 : 75GW (Broader grid operation enables max 50% of wind capacities at each region.) Estimated average capacity factor : 29% (Onshore 25%, Fixed offshore 30%, Floating offshore 35%) 75GW 8760 hours 29% = 190 TWh 6

7 Onshore, Fixed offshore, Floating offshore Onshore wind leads at early years. But, onshore capacity shall be limited by high population density in Japan. Japan has world 6 th largest EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). Therefore, offshore wind has large potential. Floating offshore shall be applied for deep sea area. Onshore 50%, Fixed offshore 25%, Floating offshore 25% Onshore Fixed Offshore Floating Offshore 7

8 Definitions of the Terms Energy Resources The theoretically calculated capacity of energy resources, except for the energy resources that are obviously impossible to utilize (for example: wind energy at a wind speed of less than 5.5 m/s) and with no consideration of various restrictive factors (land applications, applications of technologies, laws and regulations, etc.). Available Energy The capacity of available energy resources with consideration of various limiting factors of recovery and application of energy; the potential for introduction under particular social conditions at a time. Available Energy by Scenario The capacity of energy resources by a particular scenario (hypothetical conditions) relating to income and expenditures for the business applied to the potential for introduction; the potential for introduction under particular scenarios for income and expenditures for the business. Energy Resources Available Energy Available Energy by Scenario Theoretical Capacity of Onshore Wind Energy Resources/Potential of Introduction/ Potential of Introduction by the scenarios Installed Capacity (GW) Scenario 1(15) Scenario 2(20) Scenario 3(22) Scenario 4(25) Note; Total capacity of power plants of Electric Companies 200 GW Capacity/Area conversion at 10,000 kw/1km2 *Reference: Study of Potential for the introduction of Renewable Energy for FY 2010 (Ministry of the Environment) Prepared by JWPA 8

9 Japan has plenty of Wind Energy Resources at onshore & offshore Available Energy; Onshore: 210GW Fixed offshore: 156GW Floating offshore: 300GW Total: 666GW Conditions; Average wind speed at 80m height: Onshore: 6.0m/s > Fixed offshore: 7.0m/s > Floating offshore: 7.5m/s > Capacity/area conversion at 10,000 kw/1km 2 Considering particular social conditions

10 Bottleneck Between Wind Resources and Electricity Demand in Japan Grid lines in Japan are divided into 9 regions and Okinawa. Eastern 3 regions are 50Hz and western 6 regions are 60Hz. Each region has its own utility tasked with preserving the demand/supply balance. With the increase of wind generation in appropriate areas, issues arise in terms of facilities and rules when considering transmission to far away demand locations. Utility (Electric Company) Maximum Demand Available Onshore Wind Energy Hokkaido 5.6GW 140GW Tohoku 15GW 73GW Tokyo 64GW 4GW Chubu 28GW 8GW Hokuriku 5.6GW 5GW Kansai 33GW 13GW Shikoku 5.9GW 5GW Chugoku 12GW 9GW Kyushu 17GW 21GW 50Hz 60Hz 21GW Okinawa Electric Power Capacity of transmission lines between supply and demand regions is insufficient. Kyushu Electric Power High volume transmission lines do not match wind power specs. Chugoku Electric Power 2GW 9GW 16.7GW Shikoku Electric Power 5GW 5GW Kansai Electric Power Good for Wind Power Generation Hokuriku Electric Power 13GW 5.6GW Chubu Electric Power WEST 60Hz 8GW Tohoku Electric Power Hokkaido Electric Power Tokyo Electric Power 140GW Major Demand Area Source : FEPC, Ministry of the Environment 73GW EAST 50Hz 4GW Available Wind Energy 10

11 Available Energy of Onshore Wind Power Without restriction: GW (1.02 times total power plant capacities in Japan) With upper limit by each electric power company s capacity: GW (0.36 times) Available energy of onshore wind power and plant capacity of each regional electric power company 16 Power plant capacities (GW) Power plant capacities of each electric companies 0 Hokkaido Tokyo Chubu Chugoku Kyushu WEST EAST Tohoku Hokuriku Kansai Shikoku Okinawa 50Hz 60Hz Source: Study of Potential for the introduction of Renewable Energy for FY 2010 (Ministry of the Environment) Prepared by JWPA 11

12 Available Energy of Fixed Offshore Wind Power (Projects less than 30km from seashore, less than 50m in depth. Excluding islands. ) Without restriction: GW (0.76 times total power plant capacities in Japan) With upper limit by each electric power company s capacity: GW (0.30 times) Available energy of fixed offshore wind power and plant capacity of each regional electric power company 16 Power plant capacities (GW) Power plant capacities of each electric companies 0 Hokkaido Tokyo Chubu Chugoku Kyushu WEST EAST Tohoku Hokuriku Kansai Shikoku Okinawa 50Hz 60Hz Source: Study of Basic Information for Planning and Zoning for Renewable Energy FY 2013 (Ministry of the Environment). Prepared by JWPA 12

13 Available Energy of Floating Offshore Wind Power (Projects less than 30km from shore, m in depth. Excluding islands) Without restriction: GW (1.45 times total power plant capacities in Japan) With upper limit by each electric power company s capacity: 84.8 GW (0.41 times) Available energy of fixed offshore wind power and plant capacity of each regional electric power company 16 Power plant capacities (GW) Power plant capacities of each electric companies 0 Hokkaido Tokyo Chubu Chugoku Kyushu WEST EAST Tohoku Hokuriku Kansai Shikoku Okinawa 50Hz 60Hz Source: Study of Basic Information for Planning and Zoning for Renewable Energy FY 2013 (Ministry of the Environment). Prepared by JWPA 13

14 Conservative Scenario (Onshore 1/2, Fixed offshore 1/3, Floating offshore 1/4) Without restriction: GW (1.12 times total power plant capacities in Japan) With upper limit by each electric power company s capacity: GW (0.37 times) 容量 [ 万 kw] Wind power at 堅実なポテンシャルと電力会社発電設備容量 conservative scenario and plant capacity of each regional electric (2010 power 年 ) company 16, 浮体風力 Floating offshore 14, 着床風力 Fixed offshore 12,000 陸上風力 Onshore Power plant capacities (GW) ,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, 発電設備容量 4/4 of Plant capacities *4/4 発電設備容量 2/4 of Plant capacities *2/4 発電設備容量 1/4 of Plant capacities *1/4 0 0 Hokkaido Tokyo Chubu Chugoku Kyushu WEST EAST Tohoku Hokuriku Kansai Shikoku Okinawa 50Hz 60Hz (Source: Study of Potential for the introduction of Renewable Energy for FY 2010 and Study of Basic Information for Planning and Zoning for Renewable Energy FY 2013 (Ministry of the Environment). Prepared by JWPA *:EAST 60Hz excludes Okinawa 14

15 JWPA s Wind Power Target in 2050 容量 [ 万 kw] 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, More Conservative Scenario JWPA s Wind Power Target in 2050 : 75GW (38GW+19GW+18GW) which can supply 20% of Japanese electricity. With upper limit by 50% capacity of EAST 50Hz and WEST 60Hz region. Excludes offshore wind at Okinawa and exclude floating offshore wind at Hokkaido. Power plant capacities (GW) JWPA s wind 2050 power 年風力導入目標と電力会社発電設備容量 target and plant capacity of each regional electric power (2010 company 年 ) 4, 浮体風力 Floating offshore 3, 着床風力 Fixed offshore 3,000 陸上風力 Onshore 発電設備容量 4/4 of Plant capacities *4/4 発電設備容量 2/4 of Plant capacities *2/4 発電設備容量 1/4 of Plant capacities *1/4 Wind power capacity share; 43% at WEST 50Hz 32% at EAST 60Hz 0 0 Hokkaido Tokyo Chubu Chugoku Kyushu WEST EAST Tohoku Hokuriku Kansai Shikoku Okinawa 50Hz 60Hz *:EAST 60Hz excludes Okinawa 15

16 Detail Data for JWPA s Wind Power Target in 2050 Regional Electric Co. Plant Capacity GW Wind Target GW Onshore Target GW Fixed offshore GW Floating offshore GW Wind capacity share Onshore capacity share Fixed offshore share % Floating offshore share Hokkaido % 3.9% 0.6% 0.0% Tohoku % 18.9% 31.6% 5.1% Tokyo % 48.7% 32.5% 25.0% Hokuriku % 48.7% 17.6% 0.0% Chubu % 47.8% 32.7% 24.5% Kansai % 48.8% 24.4% 14.4% Chugoku % 47.8% 0.0% 0.0% Shikoku % 46.8% 0.0% 22.4% Kyushu % 49.2% 31.9% 24.9% Okinawa % 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% TOTAL % 18.1% 12.1% 6.0% EAST 50Hz % 10.0% 10.3% 3.9% WEST 60Hz * % 48.5% 31.4% 24.3% *:WEST 60Hz excludes Okinawa 16

17 The Way to realize this JWPA s Target Improve Power Grid Operation Inter-regional grid operation for wind power aggregation Build new local grid lines at northern rural area Enlarge inter-regional grid line between Hokkaido and Aomori ( Kita-Honn transmission line ) Sophisticated wind power output prediction system Power storage system (pumped hydro, batteries) Demand side management system Retrofit fossil power plants for ancillary service Improve Wind Farm Operation Wind farm output park control Reduce output fluctuation using battery system 17

18 New Organization for operating power grid inter-regionally starts work in April

19 Japanese METI has started 50% funding for building new grid lines for wind power in 2013 Northern Hokkaido: 0.29GW 3.935GW By 290 billion JPY, from 2013 Ref:METI Tohoku, Akita and Aomori: 1.94GW 2.22GW By 20 billion JPY, from

20 Japanese NEDO started to develop sophisticated wind power output prediction system in

21 Roadmap for the Wind Power Introduction for Japan, estimated by the JWPA Wind power shall supply 20% of Japanese electricity by FY2050. Accumulated installed capacity:11gw by 2020, 36GW by 2030, 75GW by About half of them shall be offshore wind power including floating type. - 累積導入量 [ 万 kw] 80 8, , , , , , , ,000 0 風力発電導入ロードマップ Roadmap for the introduction of : wind ビジョン power Floating 浮体式風力 offshore 着床式風力 Fixed offshore 陸上風力実績 FY GW 0.004GW 0.046GW 2.6GW FY GW 0.1GW 0.6GW 10. GW FY GW 4GW 6GW 27GW FY GW 18GW 19GW 38GW Electricity supply by wind power : 0.5% 2% 9% 20% 21

22 Annual new installation for 2050 Annual new installation will grow to 3GW/year by GW of repowering will be added every year after Japanese wind power market keeps more than 3.5GW after 単年度導入量 [ 万 kw] Installed capacity (net) GW/year 単年度新規導入量 ( 純増量 )[ 万 kw] Sum 合計 Onshore 陸上 Fixed 洋上 ( offshore 着床 ) Floating 洋上 ( 浮体 offshore ) 年度 FY 単年度生産量 [ 万 kw] Installed capacity (including repowering) GW/year 単年度生産量 ( 建設量 )[ 万 kw]: 更新を含む 合計 Sum Onshore 陸上洋上 Fixed ( f 着床 offshore ) 洋上 Floating ( 浮体 offshore ) FY 年度 22

23 Installation Target: JWPA and the Government (as of 2012) National Policy Unit: Energy and Environment Council *1 METI: Committee on Basic Issues, Advisory Committee on Energy and Natural Resources *2 Ministry of the Environment: Global Environment Committee, Central Environment Council *3 Integrated operations using interregional connection assumed (Capacity limits of interregional connection not considered) National Policy Unit METI Ministry of the Environment JWPA Onshore Offshore Onshore Offshore Onshore Offshore RE 35% RE 30% RE 25% Case Case Case HHV MHV LHV plan plan *1 Energy and Environment Council (June 29, 12) *2 Committee on Basic Issues (April 16, 12, etc.) *3 Global Environment Committee (March 2, 12, etc.) GW

24 Industrial Effect by Installation & Manufacturing There are many wind power associated companies in Japan. 24

25 Economic Effects (Industry and Employment) 4.5 Trillion JPY/year will be carried out by wind power in T JPY by Construction & Manufacturing, 3 T JPY by O&M etc. They will create more than 290 thousand jobs for Japan in Construction & Manufacturing Total cost Unit Onshore JPY B Fixed, offshore JPY B Floating, offshore JPY B Total JPY B , O&M, insurance Direct Unit Onshore JPY B Fixed, offshore JPY B Floating, offshore JPY B Total JPY B ,470.0 Economic ripple Unit Onshore JPY B Fixed, offshore JPY B Floating, offshore JPY B Total JPY B , ,452.0 Economic ripple Unit Onshore JPY B Fixed, offshore JPY B ,196.0 Floating offshore JPY B ,211.0 Total JPY B , ,032.0 Job creation Unit Onshore 1, Fixed, offshore 1, Floating, offshore 1, Total 1, Job creation Unit Onshore 1, Fixed, offshore 1, Floating, offshore 1, Total 1,

26 Back Data for Economic Effects (Industry and Employment) Calculated the effects of wind power on industry and employment by using inter-industry relations tables *1 References for calculation Papers by Professor Washizu of Waseda University Economic and Environmental Impact Analysis for Construction of Renewable Energy Power Plants by Extended Input-Output Table, Science and Technology Foresight Center, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), MEXT (August 2013) Development Activities for Construction of Renewable Energy Power Plants and Estimation of the Static Ripple Effect, Waseda University Faculty of Social Sciences working paper, Satoshi Nakano and Ayu Washizu, No , March 2013, pp (Source: quoted from the above working paper and NISTEP s DP, with detailed estimation results being provided by the authors) Costs of constructing wind power plants in the future were estimated based on the following: EWEA Pure Power: EC roadmap and EWEA scenario Present Status of Wind Power Generation, Data 3-1, 29 th New-Energy Division meeting (November 2008) Operating and maintenance (O&M) costs were estimated based on the following (assuming unit prices will not decrease in the future): Opinion on Procurement Prices and lead time, 2014, Procurement Price Calculation Committee (March 7, 2014) Offshore = 22.5 [JPY1,000/kW], Onshore = 6 [JPY1,000/kW] Insurance costs during the project terms were estimated based on the following: JWPA Price Study Data for Fixed-Type Offshore Wind Power Plants (November 28, 2013), etc. Offshore = 3%/year of construction costs, Onshore = 1%/year of construction costs *1 Industries that constitute regional economies engage in production as they maintain close relationships with other industries both within and outside of their regions, thus forming an industrial structure unique to each region. One industry purchases (input) raw materials, fuels, and other goods and services from other industries to create new goods and services by processing them (through investment of labor, capital, etc.). They then sell (output) these to other industries as raw materials, etc. Such relationships form a chain among different industries, thus providing end consumers with the goods and services that they need. Detailing such inter-industry transactions, inter-industry tables capture economic activities in terms of transactions of goods and services and put the realities of economic activities in a certain region during a defined period (usually one year) in a table (matrix). 26

27 CO 2 Reduction 99 million ton-co 2 /year can be reduced by wind power in This is 7.4% of total CO 2 exhaust in Japan at Unit Onshore Mil. ton-co In FY2050, CO 2 reduction by wind power generation is predicted to be 7.7% of the above average. Fixed, offshore Mil. ton-co Floating, offshore Mil. ton-co /97 Total Mil. ton-co

28 Back Data for CO 2 Reduction Estimated by multiplying electricity generated by wind power by the difference between the wind power generation s life-cycle CO 2 emissions and emission factor substitute value (kg-co 2 /kwh) Emission factor substitute value = [kg-co 2 /kwh] Ministry of the Environment: Announcement of FY 2012 emission factors, etc. for each electric utilities operator to be used for calculation of gross greenhouse gases emissions for action plans by the central and local governments pursuant to the Act on Promotion of Global Warming Countermeasures (December 2013) Wind power generation life cycle CO 2 emission factor = [kg-co 2 /kwh] Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry: Evaluation of life cycle CO 2 emissions for each power source (August 2010) Japan s gross emissions of greenhouse gases averaged 1,278 million tons for the five years of the Kyoto Protocol s first commitment period ( ) (1,343 million tons in FY2012) Ministry of the Environment: Calculation of Japan s greenhouse gas emissions (April 2014) In FY2050, CO 2 reduction by wind power generation is predicted to be 7.7% of the above average. 28

29 Summary Assuming wide-area coordinated operations of electrical grids in light of recent trends (electric power system reform, intra-region transmission line establishment/expansion, offshore wind power verification projects, etc.), the target has been set to have power supply of wind being no less than 20% of the estimated power demand in FY2050 (Scenario A). It has been confirmed that the above target is achievable (FY2050: 75 GW) Going forward, continued efforts will be necessary to resolve technological bottlenecks. In FY2050, direct costs, including construction/o&m costs, should reach JPY2.3 trillion. Please note that the economic ripple effect is estimated at JPY4.5 trillion, with 290,000 jobs being created. In FY2050, CO 2 reduction is estimated at 99 million ton-co 2 This corresponds to 7.7% of the five-year average during the Kyoto Protocol s first commitment period. Key restrictions set when drawing up the Vision Conservative estimation: Onshore-1/2 of available energy, Fixed offshore-1/3 of available energy, Floating offshore-1/4 of available energy No more than 1/2 of the total capacity of power plants (50-Hz and 60-Hz systems), and no more than 1/4 for Okinawa 29

30 References: Sources and Data Theoretical capacity and potential for introduction Basic Study Project on Promotion of Alternative Energy Introduction for FY2010: February (METI) Study of Potential for Introduction of Renewable Energy for FY2009: March (Ministry of the Environment) Study of Potential for Introduction of Renewable Energy for FY2010: March (Ministry of the Environment) Improvement of Basic Information on Zoning for Renewable Energy for FY2011: June (Ministry of the Environment) Project for Preparation of Wind Condition Change Data in Hokkaido (Tohoku) for FY2012: August (Ministry of the Environment) Total capacity of electric power plants and total power demand Power survey statistics, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy Statistics Information Power statistics information, Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan Low-Carbon Society Scenario for Japan in 2050, Ministry of the Environment Strategic R&D Project, June JWPA s mid-/long-term installation goals Long-Term Wind Power Generation Installation Goal and Recommendations for Achievement: February Long-Term Wind Power Generation Installation Goal and Roadmap V1.1: January Theoretical Capacity and Potential of Wind Power Generation and Mid-/Long-Term Installation Goal (V2.1): June Theoretical Capacity and Potential of Wind Power Generation and Mid-/Long-Term Installation Goal (V3.2): February

31 You can get more detail at JWPA s web site Japanese 日本語 English 31