Where Are The FLNG Opportunities? How to Accelerate Them?

Transcription

1 Floating LNG 2012 Where Are The FLNG Opportunities? How to Accelerate Them? What are the Gas Supply Challenges? How could domestic demand for gas & power be integrated into an FLNG project? FLNG 2012 London, 12 June 2012 Claudio H. Steuer Principal SyEnergy Limited

2 Legal Disclaimer SyEnergy Limited accepts no liability whatsoever and does not make or offer any representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, for any information, projections and opinions contained in this presentation. SyEnergy Limited does not undertake any obligation to provide the recipient with access to any additional information or to update or correct any unintended inaccuracies in or omissions from this presentation. This presentation shall not be deemed to be an offer to sell or invitation to invest in SyEnergy Limited or any of its assets and no information set out in this presentation is intended to form the basis of any contract, investment decision or any decision to purchase or invest in any such assets. The information contained herein is disclosed purely for information purposes only and recipients should rely solely on their own judgement, review and analysis in evaluating the information set out herein. The recipient is authorized to use the information contained in this presentation in part or whole, on the condition to preserve the content as disclosed herein, and providing the appropriate accreditation of the source.

3 A brief word about SyEnergy Energy consultancy focused on strategy, business development and commercial issues 25+ years of experience with Shell, ENI, Snamprogetti, Centrica, and Gas Strategies Group Advised clients on energy projects located in West, East & North Africa, South America, USA, Europe, Caspian, Indonesia and Australia. Upstream and midstream gas/lng business development and commercialisation Gas supply planning, infrastructure development, domestic and export gas market studies Project contracts, sales & purchase agreements, price reviews, and dispute resolution Advice and implementation support focused on long term sustainable value creation Independent project assurance reviews and commercial due diligence Provision of bespoke energy training 3

4 Where are the FLNG opportunities????? Deepwater fields where subsea pipelines are expensive, technically and/or politically complex 4

5 FLNG is not resource constrained FLNG project complexity is not a function of size most often it is proportional to the lack of alignment between all stakeholders Source: EIA / IEO 2011, WoodMac, ENI World Oil & Gas Review

6 Brazil pre-salt, a new frontier. new challenges Total area of 149,000 Km2 (~ km off the coast) Only 2% of Brazilian sedimentary area Only 28% of the area under concession ~50 Billion Boe potential ~40 Tcf natural gas ~7,000m of saltwater, sand, salt layer & rock Well engineering (salt layer, ~granite hardness, 1,000 psi, High CO2, water/gas injection) Flow assurance (near freezing temperatures, paraffin deposition, hydrate and scaling control) Production (depth and pipeline thickness, shifting ocean currents, marinisation of remote production systems) Remote operations at depths that would crush a submarine require complex technological systems A dry hole can cost ~$ million Source: ANP, HRT, Petrobras 6

7 FLNG project challenges LNG Plant Liquefaction Cost Evolution - $/tonne Project Sponsors Feasible Project Return on Investment Operating Environment People Resource Holder Government Take Domgas Development Local Content Ichthys Project a reported $4,000/tonne! Process Projects Financial Community Legal & Fiscal Stability Sustainable Development Robust Cash-Flow Global Gas Prices - $/Mmbtu Quality front-end planning anticipating key issues and developing durable solutions Source: Wood Wood Mackenzie, ICIS Heren Global LNG Markets, LNG Business Review 7

8 A new business model? Insanity = doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results Information is not knowledge. The only source of knowledge is experience You miss 100% of the goals you do not kick the ball A good hockey player plays where the puck is. a great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be Creativity is thinking up new things. Innovation is doing new things Source: Luis Steuer/Albert Einstein, Wayne Gretzky, Theodore Levitt 8

9 Gas flaring from waste to opportunity ~145 Bcm/yr flared or ~2.3 mmbbl/d or ~3% of production ~33% of European consumption ~ $56 $10/mmbtu Nigeria - 22 Mtpa LNG in ~10 years Energy policy, investment decisions and industry governance need planning & consistent rules Source: World Bank GGFR, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010, GE Energy, NNPC 9

10 Gas & LNG floating solutions FLNG LNG Tankers LNG Tankers and FSRU are well established FLNG is in post Shell Prelude mode design one, build many where is the next one? FSRU CNG When will ~1-2 Mtpa FLNGs start to occur? Marine CNG should find good applications in complementing offshore production systems, gas gathering and floating production systems, including FLNG Refrigeration & pressure have improved CNG compression ratios from 250:1 to 450:1 Utilization of composite materials increases the possibilities to transport raw gas Delivery system commercial feasibility estimated up to ~2,000 to 3,000 km Source: Hoegh LNG, EnerSea, Sea NG, Transocean 10

11 Floating CNG producer & shuttle ship Source: CNG Gas FPSO and CNG Shuttle ship designs provided by SeaNG Corporation 11

12 Floating CNG producer & shuttle ship Source: CETech Producer and CNG Shuttle ship designs provided by Höegh LNG AS 12

13 Floating CNG producer & shuttle ship Source: Neptune Gas Technologies Ltd. ship designs provided by BMT TITRON (UK) Ltd. 13

14 Marine CNG applications UPSTREAM Increase Existing Oil Production (remove gas handling constraints) Enable New Oil Production (provide associated gas solution / flare reduction) Connect Satellite or Marginal Fields (floating gas gathering system) Connect Remote Area / Deep-water Fields (substitute expensive submarine pipelines) Production from High Sulfur, H2S, CO2 Fields (transport raw gas to gas treatment plants) Compliment LNG Production (additional gas supply to LNG on-shore or FLNG) Early Production / Extended Well Testing Large/Giant Fields (temporary gas solution) MIDSTREAM / DOWNSTREAM Transport Raw Gas (offshore platform or onshore gas treatment plant) Sale of Treated Gas (regional / niche markets / switching from liquid petroleum fuels) STRATEGIC Stranded Gas Monetisation (accelerate reserve bookings and increase production) Leverage Unique Solution (entry into new fields) Gas Supply to LNG Plants with Unutilised Capacity (tolling gas to increase equity LNG) 14

15 What role could marine CNG play in Brazil? Campos & Santos fields* hold ~42 billion barrels of gross recoverable oil reserves and ~40 Tcf of gas reserves (~25 Tcf associated) Marine CNG could complement pipelines on the ~5-6 Bcf/d gas gathering system Marine CNG offers complimentary synergies for connected or remote FLNG production systems Marine CNG could provide additional gas supply to major cities and power plants along the coast Injection into existing coastal pipeline system reducing need/costs of compression stations Short travel distances to areas with limited infrastructure unlocking further CCGT growth Opportunity to supply regional gas demand Note: SyEnergy estimate for Lula, Iracema, Guara, Iara, Jupiter, Parati, Caramba, Carioca, Bem-Te-Vi, Mexilhao, Franco, Sabia & Libra fields 15

16 Marine CNG increases gas supply to FLNG Scalability (adaptable to production profile ramp up and down) Flexibility (variable production rate and storage needs on-shore / on-boat) Re-deployability (relocation/repositioning within field, basin or another geography) Shorter Development and Deployment Schedule (improved time-to-market & economics) Lower Overall Capex $/mmbtu than Alternatives (competitive cost / market price) Lower Overall Opex $/mmbtu than Alternatives (attractive market price / supplier margin) Wider Portfolio Application ( design few models and build many standardization of solution) Enable Monetisation of Previously Stranded Hydrocarbons (increase reserve bookings) Simpler, Faster and Less Capital Intensive Development of Receiving Terminals / Buoys (able to reach larger number of smaller markets and improved value creation for both parties) 16

17 Thank You! FLNG 2012 London, 12 June 2012 Claudio H. Steuer Principal, SyEnergy Limited