Milligrams to Megatons

Transcription

1 Milligrams to Megatons Following the innovation journey of carbon conversion from lab to commercialization Yuan-Sheng Yu Senior Analyst March 9, 2018

2 Drive Growth Through Tech Innovation Analysis you trust. Opinions you rely on. Make better decisions, faster. TECHNICAL EXPERTISE PRIMARY RESEARCH ADVANCED ANALYTICS BOSTON NEW YORK AMSTERDAM SINGAPORE TOKYO

3 Why is everyone talking about carbon conversion? Interest in carbon conversion has risen at an astronomical rate over the past several years leading up to and following the Paris Agreement 3

4 Recent interests find their origins dating back to 1992 when curbing carbon emissions hit the international stage The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was established in 1992 as the first international treaty aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions Following in 1997 the Kyoto Protocol was signed further incentivizing nations around the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through a legally binding treaty Rise in public awareness drove carbon emissions mainstream with the 2006 documentary An Inconvenient Truth catalyzing global political debates around the world. In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its 4 th Assessment Report concluding that warming of the climate system is unequivocal. 4

5 5 Innovation interest in carbon-related technologies has grown exponentially following the Kyoto Protocol

6 Several consortiums and initiatives promoting advances in carbon-related technologies have been launched worldwide CO 2 Value Europe (2017): Consortium consists of industrial players and academic institutions focused on advancing technology development in carbon conversion. NRG COSIA Carbon XPRIZE (2015): Global competition is for both carbon capture and conversion companies competing for over $10 million in funding for a pilot and demonstration facility. The Global CO 2 Initiative (2016): Fund creating for development of carbon conversion technologies. Non-profit arm, CO 2 Sciences, funds R&D of early-stage technologies. 6

7 Who is innovating in carbon conversion? Today we will look at developers for four key carbon conversion platforms: microbial, electrochemical, catalytic, and photocatalytic 7

8 Following the innovation journey of carbon conversion from the lab to commercialization Microbial Catalytic Electrochemical Photocatalytic 8

9 Microbial conversion offers end-product flexibility for fuels, chemicals, and novel specialty products Microbial Catalytic Electrochemical Photocatalytic 9

10 Electrochaea Microbial conversion of CO 2 and hydrogen to methane Technology and Differentiators: Develops microbial platform for CH 4 production from CO 2 ; claims CO 2 conversion efficiency of 100% and overall energy efficiency of 60% Produces 55 m 3 of methane per 1 MW of power input; claims to be cost competitive with natural gas prices in Europe at commercial scale Strategy and Markets: Business model is to license its technology for power-to-gas applications Over 20 MW of commercial projects in pipeline including 10 MW power-togas plant with MVM in Hungary planned for 2020 Lux Take: Wait and See Power-to-gas remains a sought-after application but with an overall energy efficiency of 60%, Electrochaea s solution underperforms compared to other forms of energy storage such as batteries. Summary Information Founded 2010 Location Hungary Technology Microbial 10

11 Newlight Technologies Microbial conversion of methane and CO 2 to PHA Technology and Differentiators: Methanotrophs for converting methane or CO 2 into polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA); claims superior performance than fossil polymers Primarily focused on methane conversion; its CO 2 conversion platform is still at the pilot scale Strategy and Markets: Business model is to sell PHA through supply agreements and license its technology to strategy partners Partnerships include offtake agreement with Vinmar International and technology collaboration with IKEA Lux Take: Wait and See Despite promising claims, questions remain on the scalability of Newlight s technology. Its first commercial facility with Vinmar will be crucial for technology validation Summary Information Founded 2003 Location Technology U.S. Microbial 11

12 Indian Oil Corporation & LanzaTech Microbes for waste gas conversion Indian Oil Corporation signed a partnership with LanzaTech in 2017 for its microbial conversion technology to produce ethanol from refinery off-gases. Technology and Project Overview: Microbial platform converting waste gases containing CO 2, carbon monoxide, and hydrogen to ethanol Claims cost competitive ethanol production costs compared to commercial routes; LanzaTech will launch its first commercial facility in China in 2018 Lux Take: Positive LanzaTech s first commercial facility in China will be critical to its project with Indian Oil Corporation as the company has not yet validated its technology at commercial scale. Summary Information Headquarters Industry Technology Stage of Development India Oil & Gas Introduction 12

13 Catalytic conversion developments builds off a long history of research from academics to major catalyst corporations Microbial Catalytic Electrochemical Photocatalytic 13

14 Sunfire Catalytic conversion of CO 2 and hydrogen to syngas Technology and Differentiators: Develops reverse water gas shift (R-WGS) catalytic platform for converting CO 2 and hydrogen into carbon monoxide and water; produces diesel from syngas using Fischer-Tropsch Utilizes CO 2 captured from ambient air and hydrogen produced from electrolysis Strategy and Markets: Business model is to build diesel facilities; operates 15,000 gallon per year (GPY) diesel facility in Germany Partners include Audi, Climeworks, and INERATEC Lux Take: Caution Using CO 2 captured from ambient air, even partially, significantly discredits Sunfire s technology solution due to high capture costs exceeding $600/MT of CO 2. Summary Information Founded 2010 Location Technology Germany Catalytic conversion 14

15 Carbon Recycling International Catalytic conversion of CO 2 and hydrogen to methanol Technology and Differentiators: Catalytically converts CO 2 and hydrogen into methanol; uses hydrogen from electrolysis and CO 2 from flue gas of a geothermal power plant Operates 1.3 million gallons per year (MGY) commercial CO 2 -to-methanol facility in Iceland since 2011 Strategy and Markets: Business model is to sell methanol to the European fuel market where it is eligible for a premium due to low-carbon credits Partners include Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems in Germany and Swerea MEFOS in Sweden Lux Take: Wait and See Carbon Recycling International s location next to a geothermal power plant is highly advantageous due to low CO 2 prices but its success is unlikely to be replicated in other locations Summary Information Founded 2006 Location Technology Iceland Catalytic conversion 15

16 Covestro Catalyst for production of polyols using CO 2 feedstock One of the leading providers of premium polymers worldwide. The company developed a catalyst technology to incorporate CO 2 into the backbone of polymer precursors. Technology and Project Overview: Proprietary double metal cyanide (DMC) catalyst to co-polymerize CO 2 with an alkylene oxide for producing a polycarbonate polyol containing 20% CO 2. Built an $18 million, 5,000 MT per year commercial facility for polycarbonate polyol production in 2016 sourcing exhaust CO 2 from a colocated chemical facility. Lux Take: Strong Positive Commercial facility achieving 80% capacity utilization and a product performance on par with fossil-based polymers. Summary Information Headquarters Industry Technology Stage of Development Germany Chemicals Commercial 16

17 Electrochemical conversion offers a one-pot solution producing hydrogen and subsequently reducing CO 2 Microbial Catalytic Electrochemical Photocatalytic 17

18 Dioxide Materials Electrochemical reduction of CO 2 into carbon monoxide Technology and Differentiators: Develops electrolyzer systems with a silver catalyst at the cathode, iridium catalyst at the anode, and imidazolium helper membrane between the electrodes Novelty in imidazolium helper membrane with claims of 80% energy efficiency; silver and iridium catalyst claims 95% to 98% selectivity Strategy and Markets: Seeks to license its technology and currently operating less than 100 W capacity units Partnership with 3M for the development of imidazolium helper membrane Lux Take: Wait and See Focusing efforts on the development of the membrane along with 3M will likely accelerate pace of development and eventual commercialization Summary Information Founded 2010 Location U.S. Technology Electrochemical 18

19 Opus12 Electrochemical conversion of CO 2 to C1 chemicals Technology and Differentiators: Develops transition metal catalysts for conversion of CO 2 and water to carbon monoxide and formic acid through electrolysis Claims an energy efficiency of 80% and a product selectivity of 99% for carbon monoxide Strategy and Markets: Business model is to retrofit its catalysts into existing electrolyzer designs and license the whole system Partners with Proton Onsite for electrolyzer design and Shell for technology development Lux Take: Wait and See Electrochemical reduction of CO 2 is an expensive process due to high energy requirements. Opus12 s technology does not provide a key solution to surmount the high energy barrier. Summary Information Founded 2015 Location Technology U.S. Electrochemical 19

20 HaldorTopsoe Electrochemical reduction of CO 2 to carbon monoxide As a leading industrial player in the heterogeneous catalysis, HaldorTopsoe is developing a solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) technology for on-site carbon monoxide generation. Technology and Project Overview: ecos is a solid oxide electrolysis system for electrocatalytic conversion of CO2 to carbon monoxide. An ecos unit produces up to 0.20 kg of carbon monoxide per kwh of electricity. HaldorTopsoe deployed a 12 kw demonstration scale system for Gas Innovations in the U.S. in 2016 and will expand it to a 300 kw unit in 2018 Lux Take: Wait and See Due to high production costs associated with electroreduction of CO 2, HaldorTopsoe s technology will likely remained confined to demonstration scale applications. Summary Information Headquarters Industry Technology Stage of Development Denmark Catalysis Introduction 20

21 Photocatalytic has gained traction in parallel with the rise of solar renewable energy deployments Microbial Catalytic Electrochemical Photocatalytic 21

22 Syzygy Plasmonics Plasmonics for photo-reduction of CO 2 to chemicals Technology and Differentiators: Develops plasmonic metallic nanostructure photocatalyst coupled with conventional metal catalyst for CO 2 reduction Demonstrated application of its technology in the dry reforming of methane gas using CO 2 to produce carbon monoxide and hydrogen Strategy and Markets: Business model is to either license the technology or building its own facilities for fuel and chemical production No formal partnership; near-term commercialization focus is on the production of hydrogen for the fuel industry Lux Take: Wait and See Syzygy Plasmonics plasmonic technology offers immense potential to disrupt the catalytic industry as a whole. However, the company is still at the early stage and is several years away from a commercial system. Summary Information Founded 2017 Location U.S. Technology Photocatalytic 22

23 SOLAR-JET Solar-driven CO 2 splitting to CO and O 2 Consortium including Bauhaus Luftfahrt, ETH Zurich, DLR, Shell, and Arttic to investigate the potential of producing carbon-neutral jet fuel. Technology and Project Overview: Solar chemical reactor designed and fabricated for two-step solar thermochemical redox reaction for producing syngas from water and CO 2 Syngas will subsequently be converted via Fischer-Tropsch to synthetic crude for further upgrading into kerosene-grade aviation fuel Lux Take: Strong Caution Despite industrial stalwarts in solar and Fischer- Tropsch technology, SOLAR-JET never left the concept stage and the consortium has since shutdown. Summary Information Headquarters Industry Technology Stage of Development Germany Solar, Oil and Gas Concept 23

24 The CO 2 conversion space is filled with groundbreaking R&D, risk taking start-ups, and visionary corporations Microbial Catalytic Electrochemical Photocatalytic 24

25 What does this mean for your R&D? Key opportunities will emerge in the booming carbon conversion space as momentum continues to drive interest for the next several years 25

26 26 Innovation interest in carbon-related technologies will only continue to rise this is an early signal

27 27 The Lux Innovation Grid (LIG) reveals key technical and commercial differentiators leading to success

28 Three key strategies emerge for progressing CO 2 conversion along the innovation journey Consumer Focused 28

29 Three key strategies emerge for progressing CO 2 conversion along the innovation journey Strength in Partnerships Consumer Focused 29

30 Three key strategies emerge for progressing CO 2 conversion along the innovation journey Strength in Partnerships Consumer Focused Unchartered Territories 30

31 The advancement and evolution of CO 2 conversion starts in the lab and market drivers are beginning to come into place Government and corporate interest in CO 2 conversion will only accelerate exponentially in the next several years, driving demand for novel technologies Key partnerships along the entire value chain will bring your research out of the lab and into the hands of consumers Aligning your core strengths and expertise with a focused R&D agenda on translational research as global trends can potentially shorten a decades long technology venture 31

32 TECHNICAL EXPERTISE PRIMARY RESEARCH ADVANCED ANALYTICS Milligrams to Megatons Following the innovation journey of carbon conversion from lab to commercialization Questions? Yuan-Sheng Yu Senior Analyst 32