Links to the UNFCCC: NDCs and the global stocktake

Transcription

1 Links to the UNFCCC: NDCs and the global stocktake IPCC expert meeting on mitigation, sustainability and climate stabilization scenarios Dr. Florin Vladu Manager, UNFCCC Secretariat Addis Ababa, 26 April 2017

2 Outline The global stocktake (GST) What was agreed in Paris Overview of ongoing work Facilitative Dialogue 2018 Nationally determined contributions Update and ongoing work Some inventory and accounting issues in the aggregation of the NDCs Mitigation progress Developing compelling narratives on mitigation efforts 2

3 The global stocktake under the Paris Agreement What was agreed? Identification of sources of input for and the development of the modalities for the global stocktake (design of the global stocktake) (Decision 1/CP21, para.101) 3

4 The global stocktake under the Paris Agreement Outcomes of COP 22 and work towards SB Identified approaches Start from outcome Start from sources of input Clarify linkages and context first 2. Identified four themes Linkages and context some details on linkages [ongoing work] follows Sources of input (generic, mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation and support; information needed for conducting the GST Modalities a process (preparatory, taking stock and assess (technical), leadership/next steps (political)); duration, institutional arrangements, type of outputs, sequencing Outcome / outputs 3. Next steps Guided submissions and SBSTA input of consideration of IPCC products (by 30 April 2017) Reflection note by the APA Co-chairs strawmen proposal how will the GST be conducted? 4

5 Ongoing activities on mitigation that could inform the global stocktake 5

6 Ongoing activities on adaptation that could inform the global stocktake 6

7 Ongoing activities on finance that could inform the global stocktake 7

8 Facilitative Dialogue 2018 first assessment of progress on mitigation efforts 8

9 SBSTA IPCC work on how IPCC assessments could inform the GST Special Event at SBSTA 44 (May 2016) Can we tell when emissions peak? Balancing emissions and sinks Aggregate fossil fuel CO 2 emissions of 12 countries whose emissions peaked in the period One illustrative scenario with a 65% probability of getting below 2 C warming 9

10 Nationally determined contributions Update and implementation Few countries have established enough policies to meet their 2030 targets (note: for those who have, this indicates further potential for ambition) With current policies, global emissions continue to grow until 2030 Political support for implementation is the key factor lacking in the majority of developing countries 10

11 Nationally determined contributions Ongoing work Develop further guidance on features of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) Most Parties - Paris Agreement already specifies features of NDCs, with national determination being one of the most important Several Parties - referred to progression, highest possible ambition, flexibility and support Develop further guidance for the information to be provided by Parties in order to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding of NDCs In general para. 27 of decision 1/CP.21 specifies the information to facilitate the clarity, transparency and understanding of NDCs (starting point) Several Parties - identification of common information elements and, on the other hand, differentiated elements, as they relate to different aspects and types of NDCs Elaborate, drawing from approaches established under the Convention and its related legal instruments as appropriate, guidance for accounting for Parties NDCs Areas to which it applies (IPCC methodologies, the land sector, and international transfers) Purpose of the guidance to be developed, its applicability to Parties using it, and how guidance can take account of differences in Parties capacities and level of experience. Pre-session round table on further guidance in relation to the mitigation section of decision 1/CP.21 (6 May 2017) 11

12 Nationally determined contributions Accounting issues in the aggregation of the NDCs Inventory issues Uncertainties in inventory estimates Limited capacity for developing national inventories of GHGs Use of different versions of the IPCC guidelines Dynamic revision of inventories Aggregation of NDCs Conditionality Relative targets (8 types of NDCs) Uncertainty and variety in auxiliary assumptions, regarding, for example, economic growth (any harmonization possible based in SSPs and SPAs?) Under- and over-achievement The transparency framework (Article 13) ongoing work on reporting, technical expert review and multilateral facilitative consideration 12

13 Monitoring mitigation progress Long-term aims and benchmarking against least-cost mitigation pathways What does least-cost imply? This single scenario is: likely (65% probability) to get below 2 C by 2100; unlikely to get below 1.5 C (20% probability) The mix of mitigation measures beyond 2030 is different from that before 2030 The level of effort, as measured by carbon price, needs to increase exponentially beyond 2030 How does this match the NDCs? On what path do the NDCs take us? What aspects of socio-economic development and ambition persist beyond 2030? 13

14 Monitoring mitigation progress Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement Macro-indicators Sectoral emissions (AFOLU v energy); energy/gdp; contribution of non-fossil energy; decomposition and attribution of mitigation effort Technology indicators Deployment of key technologies Investment in R&D Demonstration activities Financial flows Policy formation and implementation Would this be possible in the context of the transparency framework? 14

15 Developing compelling narratives on mitigation efforts Opening the back box Language -Agreed by consensus -Loaded -Unifying, neutral or divisive Language -Scientific - Complex -Context specific Negotiations & Governance TRANSLATORS DEVELOPING COMPELLING NARRATIVES WRITERS Modeling World(s) Intergovernmental process Craft correct yet understandable language Help keep the process responsive to real world realities Analyze trends in the findings Connect the narrative to concerns of policy makers New findings on climate change 15

16 Thank you! 16

17 Expert Meeting on Mitigation, Sustainability and Climate Stabilization Scenarios Working Group III (WGIII) Mitigation of Climate Change April 2017 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia