The isdg model: An interactive policy simulator for the Sustainable Development Goals

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1 The isdg model: An interactive policy simulator for the Sustainable Development Goals Designing coherent policies for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) presents at once huge challenges and opportunities. The SDGs are interlinked in complex and often subtle ways. Actions to achieve progress in one SDG sector may cause underachievement or failure in another (Young et al. 2014; Pedercini et al. 2010). By the same token, a successful SDG initiative in one sector might create synergies for improvements in another. The SDGs can be thought of as a complex system of interwoven feedback loops, lengthy time lags between causes and effects, and nonlinearities that are often unrecognised. Such systems are known to present serious impediments to learning and policy design (Groesser and Schaffernicht, 2008; Sterman, 1994). Within this difficult learning environment there is a need for tools to aid learning and policy design focused on SDG attainment. Recognising this need, the Millennium Institute has developed the Integrated Sustainable Development Goal (isdg) model. The isdg model is an interactive simulation model designed for policy-makers and planners or others concerned with achieving the SDGs. The isdg model is a national scale model of relatively course detail and does not replace finer resolution sector-focused models. The isdg model is intended to help policy-makers and planners make sense of the complex and interlinked SDG system, and to help them design efficient pathways to their goals. The isdg model can be calibrated for any country or region with data sourced locally or from international databases. The isdg Model The isdg model builds on the Millennium Institute s Threshold 21 (T21) model, a fully integrated multisector national planning model that has been used in over 40 countries. The isdg model is developed with System Dynamics methodology using the Vensim DSS software. 1 The user interface is developed in Sable software. 2 The isdg model is intended as an interactive learning platform, giving policy-makers and planners opportunity to learn and build intuition through virtual experiments or what-if scenarios within the complex SDG system. It is expected that this mode of experiential learning will help policy makers identify trade-offs, synergies, and high leverage intervention points that will inform their policy decisions. isdg and Threshold 21 are registered trademarks of the Millennium Institute. 1 Vensim is a product of Ventana Systems Inc., USA. 2 Sable is a product of Ventana Systems UK Ltd., United Kingdom. 1

2 The isdg model contains 30 interlinked model sectors: 10 social sectors, 10 economic sectors, and 10 environmental sectors (see Figure 1) distributed within the three core dimensions of sustainability: society, economy, and environment. The model maps key feedback loops running between and within sectors as well as nonlinear relationships and time lags that generate the complex systemic behaviours characteristic of interactions between SDGs. Unlike static SDG indicators databases and indexes that provide a measure of where a country is, the isdg Model focuses on the interactions within the SDG system to reveal the best paths and progression towards achieving the SDGs. The isdg core model framework is flexible and its structure can be modified to meet the requirements of an SDG analysis. The core model framework includes 78 indicators covering all the 17 SDGs (see Table 1), 3 and more can be added during the customization process to reflect a country s needs and priorities. The structural modifications necessary to create a unique model for a country is determined with stakeholders through a collaborative modeling approach. 4 Figure 1. Structural overview of the isdg model showing the distribution of model sectors within economic, social, and environmental dimensions 3 See for full list of SDG targets and indicators. 4 Collaborative Modeling (CM) is a process in which stakeholders work directly with modelers to design models relevant to their needs. SD models are exceptionally useful for CM processes. Stock and flow diagrams enable transparency, and desktop user interfaces or simulators offer the opportunity for users to change parameters of interest on-the-fly. 2

3 To promote model-based learning, a strong emphasis is placed on transparency and user-friendliness. Extensive documentation is available online including detailed descriptions of each model sector. Video and written support materials are provided online that explain how to set up and run the model. Example simulations are performed on video. The model user interface is intuitive. The behaviour of the system is shown in both time series graphs and numerical tables. Causal diagrams are used to show linkages between the SDG system s behaviour and underlying structure. The model simulates almost instantly. This speeds the learning process and helps build user intuition. Example Simulation of the isdg Model The following is an overview of the isdg user interface with an example of a simple policy simulation for a low-income eastern African country. The model features a user dashboard with a table of icons for each of the 17 SDGs (Figure 2). A red horizontal bar under each icon represents the expected attainment of the SDG by year 2030 if current policies remain unchanged and if no unexpected external shocks occur - business as usual conditions. After a simulation is run, a blue horizontal bar appears underneath the business-as-usual bar indicating SDG attainment under the simulated policy or policies. This provides users a quick view of the state of attainment across all 17 SDGs. Figure 2. User dashboard icons for the 17 SDGs Clicking an icon opens a window in which interventions for a particular SDG can be entered. This example uses SDG 2 - End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture. When the simulation is run a causal map emanating from the policy intervention is generated shown (Figure 3). Clicking on any of the variables in the diagram reveals the trajectory of the variable over the time horizon of 3

4 the SDGs. This causal diagram shows the connection between model behaviour and structure, a critical element of model-based learning. Figure 3. Simplified causal map of no hunger/sustainable agriculture sector Note: Blue arrows indicate positive causal linkages (changes in the variable at the arrow s base tend to cause changes in the same direction in variables at the arrow s point). Red arrows indicate negative causal linkages (changes in the variable at the base tend to cause changes in the opposite direction in the variable at the point). In the example simulation, investment in training causes a great increase in area under sustainable management, reaching 100% by year 2029 (Figure 4). The growth is driven in part by self-reinforcing word-ofmouth feedback. Figure 4. Simulated trajectories of proportion of harvested area under sustainable management 1 Proportion of harvested area sustainably managed Dimensionless proportion of harvested area sustainably managed, with 0.3 % of GDP for agricultural training 4 proportion of harvested area sustainably managed, base run

5 The patterns shown below demonstrate some of the impacts of investing in sustainable agriculture within the no hunger/agriculture SDG and cutting across other SDGs. The patterns are best interpreted with reference to the causal map in Figure 4. Improved yields increase cereal production, rural incomes improve with crop production, decreasing the proportion of the population below the poverty line (SDG 1, No poverty ). Figure 5 Simulated trajectories of: (a) yields of cereals in metric tons per ha-year; (b) crops production of cereals in metric tons per year; (c) proportion of population below poverty line (a) (b) Cereal yield Cereal production Metric ton per ha-year Metric tons per year 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 (c) Proportion of population below poverty line Dimensionless Note: Blue line represents the case under the policy of 0.3% allocation of GDP for agricultural training, while red line represents business-as-usual. The example provided above focuses for simplicity on a single policy intervention. A key strength of the isdg model is the support of simulation of a broad variety of policies simultaneously and the assessment of positive and negative synergies. This feature is of primary importance in order to establish policy coherence across sectors for an effective use of resources towards achieving the SDGs. 5

6 Conclusion Many aspects of the SDGs are interlinked with complex feedback loops making the impacts of policies difficult or impossible to intuit. Because of its integrated and transparent structure, the isdg model can reveal chains of impacts from policy interventions, helping policymakers identify trade-offs, synergies, and leverage points. The interactive nature of the isdg model provides means to design and test evidence-based policies to improve efficiencies, reduce risks, and increase the likelihood of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Visit for a demo version of the isdg model and full supporting documentation. References Groesser, S. N. & Schaffernicht, M., Mental models of dynamic systems: taking stock and looking ahead. System Dynamics Review, 28(1), pp Pedercini, M. and G.O. Barney (2010) Dynamic analysis of interventions designed to achieve Millennium Development Goals (MDG): The Case of Ghana, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 44, pp Sterman, J., Learning in and about complex systems. System Dynamics Review, 10(2-3), pp Young, O.R., A. Underdal, N. Kanie, S. Andresen, S. Bernstein, F. Biermann, J. Gupta, P. M. Haas, M. Iguchi, M. Kok, M. Levy, M. Nilsson, L. Pintér and C. Stevens United Nations Uiversity. Policy Brief #1. Downloaded from 6

7 The Millennium Institute The Millennium Institute (MI) is a nonprofit, non-governmental organization passionate about improving the welfare of individuals on every continent by working with stakeholders to meet the challenges of sustainable development. MI s goal is to help decision makers apply systems thinking to create a more sustainable, equitable, and peaceful global society. We use the System Dynamics modeling method to develop customized policy simulators that examine multiple development futures. MI s unique capacity is its ability to map a broad variety of policies simultaneously and to assess the positive and negative synergies, which are essential for coherent policy design and for effective resources allocation. MI has a track record of assisting policy-makers, program implementation and evaluation planners, country fiscal leaders, and other stakeholders across government and society on all aspects of integrated national development planning, a process which is often overwhelming for most coordinators responsible for this task. In three decades of experience, MI has assisted more than 40 nations and regional groups throughout the process of identifying goals and strategies that offer all people access to food, water, health care, education, and equal opportunities for women and men. In order to make a significant contribution to the Global 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, MI has developed the Integrated Sustainable Development Goal (T21-iSDG) model, an interactive policy simulation tool that helps stakeholders concerned with achieving the SDGs to make sense of the complex and interlinked policies required to achieve the Goals, and to design efficient pathways towards them. The model has received excellent praise from several key development partners, and has been included in the 2016 OECD s guidelines for sustainable development planning. The SDG lab at the UN Geneva Office also recently reported that after a presentation of the isdg model to officials from UNDP, UNITAR, UNCTAD, and the World Bank, everyone was enthusiastic about the educational value that the (T21-iSDG) tool could offer to governments around taking a whole of government approach and encouraging intersectorality. MI developed the Threshold 21 model the technology on which the isdg is based from more than 20 years of extensive research and application carried out in consultation with the World Bank, UN agencies, developing country governments, and non-governmental organizations. Experts at the World Bank, UNDP, UNEP, and others who have examined the T21 technology closely, determined it is very well suited for conducting sustainable development policy assessments. At MI, we approach our work differently than others. Our Country Strategic Planning Support program has three key phases: policy identification, stakeholder engagement, and reporting and monitoring; designed to accompany a country s government throughout the process of strategy development, from the initial conceptualization of key issues and relevant policies; to engaging stakeholders in developing a shared vision; to preparing and monitoring effective development strategies. This approach meets the principles outlined in the Busan Partnership for Effective Development Co-operation. MI has special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC). For more information, visit and or contact info@millenniuminstitute.org. 7