East Lindsey Economic Baseline 2010 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Transcription

1 East Lindsey Economic Baseline 2010 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

2 Introduction Employment and Business Base This report presents a thorough and wide-ranging assessment of the East Lindsey economy, set within the context of the Lincolnshire County and East Midlands regional economies, and the wider national economic picture. The analysis reviews the characteristics of East Lindsey, including the economy of its Coastal Area, the Rural Inland Area and its principal towns, notably Skegness and Louth. The report is structured around the guidance for Local Economic Assessments, a statutory responsibility for County Councils from April 2010 onwards. In this way, it is hoped that the East Lindsey economic assessment will directly contribute to, and help inform the County-wide assessment. The report includes recommendations for priority areas of action to exploit opportunities for the District and to address its challenges going forward, in the light of trends and characteristics over the last decade and the recent economic shock of recession. The East Lindsey economy is typical of a more remote rural economy with a history of agriculture and coastal-related employment. Louth was founded on the wool trade, Skegness was popularised in the 19th century as a tourist resort and the towns of Horncastle and Alford have been traditional market towns. Three of the District s towns are amongst the ten towns furthest from London in the region. The employment and business base is typified by a dominance of sectors that reflect its past: agriculture, tourism and traditional manufacturing. The base also reflects a relatively weak private sector, with a consequently high proportion employed in the public sectors. Health and social care employment is high, a reflection of the more elderly population: East Lindsey has the highest proportion aged 64 and over in the region. The corollary of the traditional employment base is an underrepresentation in the sectors that have driven national employment growth over the last ten years until the recent recession. Prior to the recession there were encouraging signs that the East Lindsey economy was successfully beginning to re-structure, with business services growing more quickly than the national average. Nonetheless, the District has fewer jobs in financial and business services, less than half the national average, and its knowledge-intensive employment base is 13 percentage points lower than national average of 43% lower, a shortage of 5,600 higher skilled jobs out of a total of 42,000. The business base comprises a high proportion of small and microbusinesses, typical of a rural economy. There are an estimated 8,401 businesses in the District, of which more than 3,000 operate below the VAT threshold of 55,000 per annum. The sector composition of the business base reflects the employment mix. Just 2.2% of businesses employ more than 50, compared to 3.4% nationally, although the low number of large employers reduces the vulnerability of East Lindsey to the closure of single large employers. Behind retail and agriculture, business activities is the third largest business base, although the majority of these are micro-businesses. Supporting and growing these business activity firms should be a policy imperative. The recession has affected the District, and more severely than is the case nationally, and employment fell back 2.5% in 2008 against a 0.3% drop nationally. That said, the recent downturn has not been as pronounced as that regionally, and East Lindsey had experienced stronger than average growth prior to the downturn. Going forward, the scenarios indicate that the effects of the recession will be shallower in the District compared to regionally and nationally, but that the recovery will be slower, with employment levels at 2016 recovering to just 97% of 2007 levels. The weakness and under-representation of knowledge-intensive businesses makes the principal towns more vulnerable to economic shocks than similar towns elsewhere, and the District economy as a whole is relatively weak compared to other areas in these sectors. However, the 2 3

3 District suits home-working, sole traders and owner-managers, attracted by the higher than average quality of life in East Lindsey, particularly in the rural inland where most of the business activities firms are based. The Coastal Area is dominated by tourism, which has shown strong employment growth over recent years and which is worth more than 400m to the local economy. Skegness, the principal tourist destination, is particularly reliant on the sector against comparator seaside areas. The GVA per employee in the sector is less than a quarter of financial services, and the sector mix in the District is a key contributor to lower than average output and earnings, with annual earnings 2,500 below the regional annual average wage. People and Communities East Lindsey is a place where people retire, and in-migration of those over 45 is a significant feature of the District s demographics. Some 53% are aged 45 or more in the District compared to 41% nationally. Recent population growth has been strong, 7.2% between , compared to national growth of 3.3%. The District however remains of low population density, ranking 324th out of 381 Local Authority areas nationally. On the whole, young people with choices tend to leave the District, and less than 1 in 3 in East Lindsey are aged 29 or less compared to 37.5% nationally. This reflects the lack of Further and Higher Education Institutions in East Lindsey, the lack of well-paid employment opportunities and other cultural factors where young people are attracted to larger urban centres. There is a significant skills deficit in the District, with those qualified to Level 2 and above and those qualified to Level 4 and above well below the national averages. To match even the regional proportion of the working age population skilled to these levels, the District would require an additional 2,477 skilled to Level 2 and above, and 4,876 skilled to Level 4 and above. The rates of those out of work and claiming benefit are higher than the regional and national averages, although these rates significantly reduce in the coastal areas in the summer months. This is typical of a coastal economy in a rural area, and many seasonal claimants have the characteristics of long-term unemployment: low skills and relatively employment limited aspirations. Wages are also typically low. Overall, part-time employment in the District is higher than the national average in the majority of sectors, and for all ages. The ILO unemployment rate, which captures those out-of-work and not seeking employment, at 4.6%, is lower than the regional and national average, although this is still 2,600 people in the District. Residents have higher levels of poor health, even in those of working age, and healthrelated benefit dependency rates are well above the national average. In all the District had 14,460 benefit claimants in May 2009, which will have risen further as a result of the recession, 18.5% of the working age population compared to 15.3% nationally. Of these, 10,650 had healthrelated issues or were caring for those with ill-health, 1 in 7 of all those of working age. In relative terms, East Lindsey has low levels of deprivation. There are concentrations of deprivation along the coastal strip including parts of Skegness and Mablethorpe, with deprivation worst for housing and employment. District-wide and on average, access to services is relatively poor, typical of a rural area. There is a strong and active Third Sector, which may employ up to 2,000 and involve more than 6,500 volunteers. 4 5

4 East Lindsey is a good place to live. More than a fifth of the area is ranked amongst the highest 20% nationally for its Living Environment, with its Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty and coastline, and the District is in the top 10% in the country based on perceived quality of life. The quality of life advantages, including low noise levels, high levels of visual amenity, access to the countryside and coast, are a real asset for the District which can be used to attract younger as well as older people, particularly those able to work from home. Challenges and Opportunities The economic challenges are considerable, stemming from low productivity, the sector mix which is in the process of restructuring, the skills deficit and pockets of long-term unemployment. These are compounded by some infrastructural and environmental challenges: the District has relatively poor transport connectivity and is at risk from the impact of climate change and flooding associated with coastal erosion. The population is an ageing and elderly one and there are relatively limited opportunities for young people in Higher/Further Education and for young professionals. At the same time, the economy and structure of East Lindsey is changing and the District is increasingly attractive for those seeking modern ways of working, living and recreation, which are increasingly blended, facilitated by technological changes and improved remote access. These advantages form the basis of an attractive East Lindsey offer which: Capitalises on the High Quality Historical and Natural Environment; Maximises the potential pool of labour, including the benefits of older workers to the economy; Grows businesses amongst the large base of micro- and small businesses; Uses the high quality of life benefits to attract and retain those economically active, especially those in higher value added sectors; Develops and enhances the historic towns and Louth and Skegness; and Harnesses the potential of specialist sectors, including healthcare and an improved tourism offer. The sector-based and economic growth opportunities, and the priority themes developed through the Assessment are: Low Carbon Industries developing the sector presents a major opportunity to continue the transition to a modern economy and to reduce the reliance on traditional sectors. This includes: Supporting businesses through the transition to a low carbon economy; and Growing environmental industries and capitalising on opportunities most closely lined to the existing renewable energy businesses sector. Tourism and Hospitality the sector makes an important contribution to the East Lindsey economy and supports jobs directly in the sector and more generally in retail, catering, transport and suppliers of textiles. The industry is forecast to grow further. The key features of the offer on which to build are: 6 7

5 The Lincolnshire Wolds the Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty coupled with a local heritage offer is an extremely valuable asset and a strong selling point; The Rural Market Towns which ring the Wolds, including Alford and Horncastle, gateway to the Wolds, Louth as the capital of the Wolds and Spilsby and which are all attractive towns; Coastal Tourism the wild coast eco-tourism and outdoor market, whilst broadening and embedding the Skegness brand and fun coast offer ; and The Hotel Offer increasing the scale and quality of accommodation, linked to new markets, which is important for capturing greater levels of visitor spend. Healthcare - East Lindsey has the highest number of people over 64 in Lincolnshire and this group is dependent upon local health services. Health and social work employment is already significant in the District and there is a potential opportunity for a Centre of Excellence in Health and Social Care delivering qualifications in the care sector. Specifically, the District needs to ensure it is: Meeting skills needs in the sector particularly education, training and development opportunities for those aged in the sector. The current workforce is skewed towards older workers; 8 Developing the Knowledge Economy through Innovation and Enterprise - the knowledge economy remains under-represented in both the Rural Inland and the Coastal Area, although more of the business services growth has been inland, potentially linked to quality of life benefits. Retaining (and attracting) young talent and high value employment is required, encouraged through fostering innovation amongst the existing business base (e.g. through more business to business activity, networks and business clubs) and stimulating further enterprise activity. Specifically, the District should focus on: Micro- and small business enterprise a specialist offer capable of attracting sectors such as Creative and Digital industries should be developed where needs are met through ICT and networking linked to physical infrastructure such as innovation centres and existing enterprise centres. Sufficient follow-on space to support growth is required. The Knowledge Economy and ICT infrastructure East Lindsey will need to enhance connectivity in order to attract new businesses, particularly important given the constraints of the local transport network. ICT development will also enhance innovation, encouraging a greater number of people to remain within the District and attracting professionals and graduates. Promoting Enterprise - entrepreneurship and the creation of higher value businesses in the District should be promoted through collaborative working with the existing business community to encourage business managers to take forward new ideas and strengthen their organisational capacity to manage growth and adaptation, including new process and product innovation and development. There is also an opportunity to stimulate and nurture talent among young people in the District, through embedding enterprise skills, knowledge and attitudes into the training and the ongoing development of teachers, lecturers and trainers in the District s primary and secondary schools, as well as further afield in Lincolnshire s FE colleges and HE institutions. Forum for Sharing Best Practice across the District thus would serve to facilitate knowledge transfers and encourage a more localised supply chain, overcoming the isolated operation of some businesses. Developing the Next Generation - the creation of a three way relationship between higher education providers, employers, and the workforce, particularly undergraduates. Efforts should therefore be focused upon the longer-term goal for the District in partnership with FE/HE providers in Lincolnshire. Employers should play a significant role in developing the next generation through the provision of graduate placement programmes that are closely linked to business needs. Raising Workforce Skills and Productivity this is about raising management and leadership capabilities in local business, investment in workforce development, skills and training and the development of core skills, such as customer care amongst the workforce. This applies across the range of sectors since GVA per employee lags regional GVA per employee in all sectors bar tourism and the public sector. 9

6 Next Steps The report identifies the many characteristics, strengths and challenges facing the East Lindsey economy in this post-recessionary phase from There are excellent opportunities on which the build, and policy makers and stakeholders across the District, supported by regional and national partners, can all play a part in the future success of the District. Specific actions, costed, timelined and with lead partners/agencies should be developed to address the priorities arising from this economic assessment. If you would like this information in another language, large print or Braille please contact us. Osoby pragnące uzyskać informacje w innym języku, proszone są ozawiadomienie rady lokalnej 如果您想要這份資料的其它語言版本, 請告訴 Se desejar obter esta informação num idioma alternativo, por favor contacte Если Вы хотите получить эту информацию на каком-либо другом языке, пожалуйста, сообщите об этом

7 East Lindsey Economic Baseline 2010 Tedder Hall, Manby Park, Louth, Lincolnshire LN11 8UP T: F: Mini-com: