Futuring and Strategic Foresight A Vision for Extension s 2 nd Century

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1 Futuring and Strategic Foresight A Vision for Extension s 2 nd Century Graham Cochran Associate Professor OSU Extension & Department of Agricultural Communication, Education, and Leadership Becky Nesbitt Assistant Professor OSU Extension Community Development ESP National Conference Indianapolis, IN October 8, 2014

2 VP Conversation on the Future of Extension Today s Goals: 1) Learn about the purpose and process of OSUE s VP Conversation on the Future of Extension 2) Become aware of the fundamental principles and practices related to strategic foresight (futuring and visioning) 3) Share ideas about the most challenging trends and issues facing Americans by the year 2035

3 VP Conversation on the Future of Extension Committee assembled by CFAES Dean Bruce McPheron to hold strategic conversations with stakeholders about the future What will be the most challenging trends and issues for Ohioans by the year 2035? What may be the best opportunities to leverage the strengths of the University and OSU Extension to address those issues?

4 VP Conversation on the Future of Extension Committee convened in early 2014 Tasked with designing futuring project; strategic conversations with stakeholders about the future The project includes 2 distinct phases: Futuring: What will be the most challenging trends and issues facing Ohioans by 2035? Visioning: What may be the best opportunities to leverage the strengths of the University and OSU Extension to address those issues?

5 Leaders in the future will have to learn to become their own futurists just as they had to learn to become their own strategic planners. Leaders need the skills and foresights of futuring to support visionary leadership. Leaders as Futurists

6 Futuring Principle 3: Futuring and visioning are different but complementary approaches Futuring includes both quantitative and qualitative forecasting of trends and potential changes external to us and largely out of our control. Visioning is an ability to imagine a desired future and how to make it happen (goals and strategies). Visioning without any regard to the external world (futuring) can be little more than wishful thinking.

7 FUTURING External to Internal Global and National Trends Market and Customer Trends Specific Opportunities Actions Strategies, Plans, and Investments Capabilities, Technologies, and Assets Mission, Values, Goals, and Culture VISIONING Internal to External

8 Applications of Futuring and Visioning Anticipate changing customers, clients, market conditions, and competitors Envision new products and services Provide thought leadership Teach the learning organization Change corporate culture Exercise risk management (managing uncertainty) Perform strategic planning Provide foundation for visionary leadership

9 Elements of Managing a Futuring Project Identification of Project Goals, Resources, and Assignments Topic Question Selection of trends, issues, and factors ( descriptors ) Research into trends, issues, and factors Interactions among trends, issues, and factors Forecasts: projections, potential changes, expectations, and stories (single or multiple) Context for strategic planning, investments, new products and services, etc.

10 VP Conversation Phase 1: Futuring 20+ dialogue sessions and interviews, April through June generate ideas about trends and issues of the future VP Forum, August 5 th expert panel to share, refine and prioritize ideas Trend analysis, August-September using data related to the descriptors/ideas to provide a wellconsidered view of the future

11 Futuring: What do you think? What will be the most challenging trends and issues for Americans by the year 2035?

12 What will be the most challenging trends and issues for Americans by the year 2035? 1. Identify a volunteer from your table to serve as recorder 2. Take 5 minutes to individually reflect on the question 3. In round-robin fashion share a thought from your list with table-mates a. Have the Recorder number each of the items as they are listed (e.g. 1, 2, 3, 4, etc ) on the larger recording sheets b. Skip ideas on your list that are exactly the same as those already recorded c. Refrain from discussing or debating the ideas shared d. There are no right or wrong ideas for this exercise 4. Vote to share your opinions on the 3 most important items a. 3 dots per person, only one dot per idea, please!

13 Trends & Issues Identified: Descriptors Sources and Metrics Dialogue Sessions: 40 small groups, 350+ individuals, 1,151 ideas Interviews with Key Stakeholders: 6 interviews with government officials and Ohio State administrators Survey of Stakeholders: 110 respondents (approximately 50% non-osu) VP Forum: elected officials, community leaders, industry experts, and futurists helped discuss and refine descriptors Descriptors data from the four sources, supported by existing information on trends, were used to develop the draft descriptors and working definitions

14 Transition Between Phases: Scenario Planning Trend analysis, September research the trends and data related to the descriptors to provide a well-considered view of the future for each descriptor Forecasting, October scenarios & cross-impact; views of the future for Ohio based on the trend analyses. Two scenario planning methods: Analytical approach developed by RAND, used by Battelle, now Futuring Associates Intuitive approach developed by Shell & others

15 VP Conversation Phase 2: Visioning VP Summit at OSUE Annual Conference, December employees dialogue about the trends, issues, opportunities & implications for OSU Extension Activities & dialogue with stakeholders and thought leaders, Fall 2014 to Spring 2015

16 VP Conversation on the Future of Extension Spring 2015 Sharing a vision, based on a wellconsidered view of the future, for OSU Extension Educational components, Ongoing to build organizational capacity to think about and plan for the future go.osu.edu/osuefuture

17 VP Conversation A Strategic Foresight Process Spring - Fall 2014 Futuring and Forecasting Discovery and learning Engaged, open-thinking process Stakeholder engagement Discourse and dialogue Internal and external perspectives Visioning opportunities and implications Fall 2014 March 2015 April 2015 Reporting vision of the future for Ohio and OSUE An informed planning and action process Beyond

18 QUESTIONS? Ohio State University Extension embraces human diversity and is committed to ensuring that all research and related educational programs are available to clientele on a nondiscriminatory basis without regard to race, color, religion, sex, age, national origin, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, disability, or veteran status. This statement is in accordance with United States Civil Rights Laws and the USDA.