Utilizing predictive analytics to improve quality and increase capacity at Deschutes Brewery

Transcription

1 Utilizing predictive analytics to improve quality and increase capacity at Deschutes Brewery February 12-15, 2018 Renaissance Hotel at SeaWorld Orlando, FL

2 Located in Bend, OR Founded in 1988 Production Facility in Bend built in 1993 Estimated 350k bbl. in 2017 Plans to open 2 nd Production Facility in Roanoke, VA in 2021 VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 2

3 Fermentation Phases 1.Filling 2.Fermentation 3.Free Rise 4.Diacetyl Rest 5.Cooling 6.Maturation 7.Ready to Transfer 8.Emptying 9.Empty VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 3

4 Manual Fermentation Transitions 1.Filling 2.Fermentation 3.Free Rise 4.Diacetyl Rest 5.Cooling 6.Maturation 7.Ready to Transfer 8.Emptying 9.Empty VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 4

5 ADF Transitions 1.Filling 2.Fermentation 3.Free Rise 4.Diacetyl Rest 5.Cooling 6.Maturation 7.Ready to Transfer 8.Emptying 9.Empty VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 5

6 Black Butte, Fresh Squeezed ADF Plots VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 6

7 Mirror Pond, Obsidian ADF Plots VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 7

8 VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 8

9 Logistic Function VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 9

10 VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 10

11 VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 11

12 Prediction Actual Δ 9.53% 9.33% 0.21% VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 12

13 VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 13

14 Prediction Actual Δ 27.91% 26.48% 1.43% VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 14

15 VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 15

16 Prediction Actual Δ 44.16% 43.02% 1.14% VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 16

17 VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 17

18 VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 18

19 Prediction Actual Δ 69.86% 71.21% 1.34% VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 19

20 VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 20

21 Prediction Actual Δ 71.67% 72.43% 0.76% VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 21

22 Past Future VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 22

23 Actual ADF Measurements VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 23

24 ADF Transition Target For Diacetyl Rest ADF Transition Target For Free Rise VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 24

25 Batch Prediction Brand Prediction VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 25

26 Cursor Brand Prediction Batch Prediction Actual VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 26

27 Batch Prediction VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 27

28 Operationalize Test in Production Adjust the Model Build Trust It s just another Tool to help us make Better Beer more Efficiently VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 28

29 Architecture DATA SOURCES PREPARE INGEST ANALYZE PUBLISH CONSUME OSIsoft PI System PI Integrator for Microsoft Azure SQL Data Warehouse Machine Learning SQL Data Warehouse PI Vision Power BI Azure Data Factory Predictions as Future Data On Premises On Cloud Mobile/Desktop VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 29

30 Transition to Cooling 1.Filling 2.Fermentation 3.Free Rise 4.Diacetyl Rest 5.Cooling 6.Maturation 7.Ready to Transfer 8.Emptying 9.Empty VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 30

31 VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 31

32 Diacetyl Predictions VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 32

33 Actual Data vs. Modeling Capabilities VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 33

34 Future Opportunities 1.Filling 2.Fermentation 3.Free Rise 4.Diacetyl Rest 5.Cooling 6.Maturation 7.Ready to Transfer 8.Emptying 9.Empty A.Preventative Maintenance B.Lautering Logic C.GCMS (Big) Data VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 34

35 Benefits 1.Increased quality 2.Decreased process time: hours per fermentation 3.Fewer manual measurements VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 35

36 Lessons Learned 1.Start small and build 2.Do not overcomplicate things: often predictions can be accurate with fewer inputs than anticipated 3.Verify your predictions over time; let people adjust 4.Stability is (at least) as important as accuracy VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 36

37 Thank You Acknowledgements OSIsoft, Microsoft, and Neal Analytics Sean Garvin, Kyle Kotaich Brian Faivre: Tim Alexander VISION, EXPERIENCE, ANSWERS FOR INDUSTRY ARC Advisory Group 37