The Skills Road. Skills for Employability in Tajikistan. Mohamed Ihsan Ajwad

Transcription

1 The Skills Road Skills for Employability in Tajikistan Mohamed Ihsan Ajwad

2 Main messages of the report Political stability and strong economic growth has contributed to high employment rates among men. Informality is high raising concerns about job quality. Employment outcomes are better among people with better cognitive and non-cognitive skills. Improving skills can enhance the demographic dividend. The report recommends five policy interventions: Expand access to quality ECD. Shift general education focus from access to curricula reforms and teaching quality improvements. Implement labor market programs for targeted groups. Increase quality tertiary education access. Improve labor market information systems.

3 Key contributions The report contributes to Tajikistan s 22 Strategy by offering a policy-relevant assessment of the impact that skills gaps have on employment outcomes. The findings are based on a unique, large-scale assessment of cognitive and non-cognitive skills of working age people outside OECD countries this type of data is rare. The report offers a framework that can be helpful to Tajikistan in light of budget and capacity constraints to up-skill the current and future workforce.

4 Outline Labor market outcomes Skills and employability Skill formation over the lifecycle The skills roadmap in Tajikistan

5 I. Labor Market Outcomes

6 Employment rates have been high for men, but Employment rate (% of population) 1 Employment rate (% of population) I. Labor market outcomes Employment rate: men Cohort (age in years) Tajikistan OECD Average Employment rate: women Cohort (age in years) Tajikistan OECD Average Female employment rates are significantly lower than male employment rates.

7 Share of informal employment Percent (%) 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Job quality remains a concern. 83% Informal salaried work by sector 52% 48% 6% Agriculture Services Industry Total 72 I. Labor market outcomes 67 Tasks performed at work by sector Perform physical Learning new things Perform repetitive work regularly at least once a week tasks more than half the time Agriculture Industry Services Total High rates of informality in all three sectors, associated with significantly lower earnings and varied working conditions. High shares of physical work and repetitive tasks performed, without the opportunity to learn new things on the job. Little use of computers on the job.

8 I. Labor market outcomes In addition, productivity gaps persist. Productivity is lower than in comparator countries, although it has grown significantly. There is a mismatch between productivity growth and the rise in wages. The gap between productivity and salaries can negatively affect sustainable job creation and competitiveness. 211 GDP per person engaged (constant 199 US$ at PPP) 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, GDP per person and productivity growth GDP Per Person Engaged (Left) Productivity Growth (Right) Source: International Labour Organization, Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM), 213. % Growth in GDP per person engaged (constant 199 US% at PPP), 2 to 211

9 I. Labor market outcomes Labor market discouragement is prevalent, especially among the youth. Share of population in age cohort (%) Discouragement: men Young people are exiting the labor force because they do not believe that they can get a good job. Share of population in age cohort (%) Discouragement: women

10 I. Labor market outcomes Labor market systems are weak Constraints faced in looking for a job Weak labor market information systems are hindering the job matching process. Two-thirds of individuals face significant barriers to learning about job vacancies. Job seekers lack the qualifications required or face difficulties demonstrating them.

11 II. Skills and employability

12 II. Skills and employability This study focuses on cognitive and non-cognitive skills. Cognitive skills Involving the use of logical, intuitive and creative thinking. Memory Literacy Numeracy Non-cognitive skills Soft skills, socio-emotional skills, life-skills, personality traits Openness to New Ideas and People Workplace Attitude and Behavior Decision Making Achievement Striving Growth mindset Scale

13 New economy skills are increasingly a part of the Tajik economy New economy skills Manual skills

14 II. Skills and employability Education attainment matters for employment prospects. Employment rate (%) Share of informal employment 1 Employment rate by education level Less than secondary All Men Women Secondary technical/special Total 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Secondary general Higher education Informal salaried work by education level 73% 66% 6% 51% 34% Higher and secondary special/technical education increase employment prospects. There is a considerable wage premium to higher education in the labor market in Tajikistan. Informality rates fall sharply with educational attainment.

15 II. Skills and employability Employability and skills are closely linked Cognitive and non-cognitive skills are higher among employed people when compared to inactive or discouraged people. Cognitive and non-cognitive skills are higher for salaried workers in the formal sector than for workers in the informal sector. Regression analysis confirms the correlations between cognitive and non-cognitive skills and employment outcomes.

16 III. Skill formation over the lifecycle

17 III. Skills formation over the lifecycle Skills are developed throughout the lifecycle. Sensitive and critical development periods for each type of skill. to 3 3 to 5 Primary School Socio-Emotional Skills Secondary School Post Secondary Life Long Learning The development of solid cognitive and non-cognitive skills early in life is central to building skills needed for productive employment. Cognitive Skills Technical Skills ; and World Bank (213)

18 MIA2 III. Skills formation over the lifecycle Early age children suffer from malnutrition and register low pre-school enrollment rates. Participation rate (% of population) Enrollment in preschool programs, Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Poland Chile OECD Average Rep. Korea Under 3 years 3 to 5 years ; and OECD (213)

19 Slide 18 MIA2 Other sources put the preschool enrollment at 9 percent Mohamed Ihsan Ajwad, 12/6/214

20 III. Skills formation over the lifecycle Higher education attainment is correlated with wealth and is lower for women. Highest diploma obtained, by consumption quintile: men Highest diploma obtained, by consumption quintile: women First First Second Second Third Third Fourth Fourth Fifth Fifth % 5% 1% Less than secondary Secondary general Secondary special/technical Higher education % 5% 1% Less than secondary Secondary general Secondary special/technical Higher education

21 IV. Skills formation over the lifecycle On the job training is scarce in Tajikistan Share of firms offering training to full time employees Less than a quarter of all firms offer their fulltime employees formal training programs Russia Kazakhstan Moldova Belarus Ukraine Tajikistan Uzbekistan Armenia Kyrgyzstan Georgia Azerbaijan Czech Republic Poland Lithuania Eurasia Comparators Source: Gill et al. (214), based on the EBRD-World Bank Business Environment and Enterprise Performance

22 Source: Authors estimates using the World Bank/GIZ Tajikistan Jobs, Skills, and Migration Survey (213). III. Skills formation over the lifecycle Education attainment has an impact on skills outcomes. Education attainment is positively correlated with both cognitive and noncognitive skills. There is significant variation among individuals with identical education levels, raising concerns about the education system s quality. Standard deviations from the sample mean Cognitive skill mean scores, by educational attainment: men Memory*** Literacy*** Numeracy*** Less than secondary Secondary special/technical Secondary general Higher education

23 IV. Skills Roadmap in Tajikistan

24 IV. Skills roadmap in Tajikistan A number of actors play a role in building skills throughout the lifecycle. Families and communities Future workforce Adult training institutions Skills Formation Formal educational institutions Current workforce Firms (learning by doing; on-thejob training)

25 IV. Skills roadmap in Tajikistan Five policy areas are to be prioritized: 1. Getting children off to the right start by expanding access to quality early childhood development programs. 2. Ensuring that all students learn by modernizing the curricula and improving teaching quality. 3. Building job-relevant skills that employers demand by implementing labor market programs. 4. Encouraging entrepreneurs hip and innovation by increasing the quality of higher education. 5. Matching the supply of skills with employers demands by improving labor market information systems.