Solicitation R P Year Flood Elevation Map and Associated Modeling

Transcription

1 Presentation in Response to: Solicitation R P Year Flood Elevation Map and Associated Modeling Lago Consulting & Services LLC 4237 Henderson Blvd. Suite 201. Tampa, FL Sept 27, 2017

2 2 Content 3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required 4. How we will validate those improvements 5. How we intend to address non-stationarity as it relates to development of IDF curves for future conditions 6. Unique tools and utilities that we intends to apply in this project 7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform the project Presented to Broward County s Selection Committee Members, Sept 27,

3 3 1. Key members, their role in the project and their capabilities Our Team, Our main roles Lago Consulting & Services Bermello Ajamil and Partners Ross Engineering CRS Max MIKE SHE/MIKE11 Utilities/Tools Non-Stationary IDF Flooding Maps LAGO B&A Stakeholder Involvement Community Outreach Community Rating System Improvement CRS Max ROSS Data Processing and Analysis. Community Outreach

4 4 1. Key members, their role in the project and their capabilities Ananta Nath, P.E, D.WRE Senior Water Resources Engineer at LAGO Project Manager Project manager for all work assignments, Oversee the work and supervise assigned personnel, Coordinate with the County on all matters regarding the project, Provide support in his areas of expertise and QA/QC. Peter degolian, MSc. Senior Project Manager and Senior Hydrologist at LAGO Deputy Project Mngr. Day to day supervision of activities, deadlines and schedule, Support the project manager in all contract matters, Assist in coordination with County staff, Hands-on in activities related to his areas of expertise. Marcelo E. Lago, PhD, GISP, CFM Vice-President and Senior Scientist at LAGO Principal Modeler Hands on guidance and supervision of all modeling tasks Define modeling approaches, methods and evaluate alternatives Lead programmer for development of project related utilities.

5 5 1. Key members, their role in the project and their capabilities Maria C. Bravo, PhD, P.E. President and Sr. Scientist and Engineer at LAGO. Principal in Charge Michelle Irizarry, P.E. Senior Professional Engineer at LAGO Future Condition/ IDF Verify that all contract obligations are met Provide QA/QC and serve as the senior technical advisor Technical leadership and schedule personnel and resources for successful execution of each task. Technical lead for Non-Stationarity IDF Curve development Specialized support in task 4 to generate storm events assuming nonstationary conditions for both 2060 and 2100 future conditions. Robert Ross, PE Principal Engineer and Vice-President of Ross Engineering Data Collection QA/QC Data collection activities, including data review and QA/QC Community outreach activities. Herman Taube, PG Senior Geologist at Ross Engineering Review of MODFLOW output files for conversion into groundwater utility Utility testing and verification. ModFlow Expert

6 6 1. Key members, their role in the project and their capabilities Jose L. Lopez, P.E., PMP Senior Professional Engineer at B&A Technical Outreach Coordinate with Broward County, 298s, professionals, developers municipalities, regulatory agencies and business organizations on the results of the modeling efforts. TAC/WAB, Surface Water Coordination Committee, ASCE, FES, Task Force meetings Teresita Garcia Public Involvement Director at B&A Community Outreach CRS outreach Coordinate with Broward County and public outreach. Public forums. Earl King, CFM CRS Senior Consultant and Vice President of CRS Max FEMA s Community Rating System. Hands-on on CRS related matters of this project. Provide support to summarize CRS potential creditable criteria and recommendations, as required in task 10.

7 7 1. Key members, their role in the project and their capabilities Capabilities. Role Key Members Project Manager Deputy Project Manager Principal Modeler Principal in Charge Future Condition/ IDF Technical Outreach Community Outreach Data Collection ModFlow Expert CRS Expert

8 8 3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required? TOPOGRAPHY LAGO pre-evaluated and found differences between the model elevation data and the most recent DEM from the SFWMD. The BC model will be updated with the new DEM. BC Model less SFWMD data Cross-sections will be reviewed to ensure that ground elevations are consistent with new elevation data

9 9 3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required? LAND USE Water classified cells in the model do not include all water bodies Recommend updating the landuse map and related parameters

10 10 3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required? STRUCTURES Review structure data currently defined in the model Verify invert elevations and dimensions Verify operational rules and protocols Collect data on recently constructed structures and stormwater management features in the model area. New Permits Coordination with SFWMD Projects in City of Fort Lauderdale

11 11 3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required? DRAINAGE LAGO developed utility to evaluate drainage routing Will evaluate current model drainage routines and correct as needed to improve COUPLING SW-GW Will evaluate leakance coefficients in the MIKE 11 network

12 12 4. How we will validate those improvements? LAGO will evaluate the accuracy of the model and its ability to reproduce measured data. For this: 1. LAGO and the County will establish criteria to evaluate the effectiveness of the model to produce results that are consistent with measured flow, stage and flooding information 2. LAGO and the County will select one or two recent storm events to be used to evaluate model performance 3. Collect measured data of flow and stage for the selected events. Also collect anecdotal information (pictures, reported flooding) for use in area where measured data is limited

13 13 4. How we will validate those improvements? (Cont.) Changing the topography and land use suggests that the results of the initial model run may not fully represent the observed conditions for the selected storm events. LAGO will implement an optimization process to validate the model Our team will put Special focus on structure operations and input parameters that control the timing and volume of runoff during storm events. LAGO S EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE APPLYING MIKE SHE/MIKE11 MODELS will be utilized during the model verification process to ensure that the model accurately predicts the system response

14 14 5. How we intend to address non-stationarity related to development of the IDF Curves for Future conditions? Lessons learned from our Hands-on experience on Non-stationary IDF curves dictates the following steps: 1. Go directly to existing downscaled Datasets that could show smaller biases in historical extremes, such as: LAGO will provide immediate analysis & suggestions on the dataset selection for Broward County consideration and final decision Non-stationarity continue in next slide

15 15 5. How we intend to address non-stationarity related to development of the IDF Curves for Future conditions? 2. Lago, in consultation with Broward, will decide which percentiles and which Representative Concentration Pathways s of downscaled model predictions to consider in the analysis SFWMD concerned with overall 5 th -50 th -95 th LAGO counts with a code in R to effectively address steps 1 & 2 3. Apply a quantile mapping technique for temporally downscaling extremes for durations shorter than 1 day similar to one used by Tetratech (2015) 4. Use Carney (2016) method to increase confidence in most extreme events ( year frequencies) to correct biases in the Generalized Extreme Value shape parameter. Note: IDF curves are desired to be projected to year 2100, but most of the downscaled model products end in the year Therefore, a 40-year period analysis would be centered around the year Non-stationarity continue in next slide

16 16 5. How we intend to address non-stationarity related to development of the IDF Curves for Future conditions? 5. Lago will decide in consultation with Broward which temporal rainfall distribution to use in this project Normalized curves by NOAA Atlas 14 or SFWMD Apply Lago Precipitation-Duration tool to develop input files Extreme rainfall events, combined with Sea Level Rise scenarios will be evaluated. Compact, 2015 Adopted by the County on 2016 as the basis for a SLR projection for planning. Concern: Joint Probability of occurrence of all flood driving variables? SLR, storm surge, extreme rainfall & moisture conditions

17 17 6. Unique tools and utilities that we intends to apply in this project ALL our Pre- and Post-processing tools that MAXIMIZE the Modeling efficiency, and MINIMIZE human errors. Among the most relevant for this project are: Process PP_Print.log file : Produces visual map with discharge location of each cell where drainage is specified MODFLOW Res To dfs: Converts MODFLOW result files to dfs2 and dfs3 files formats (for MIKE SHE). LAGO will develop a utility to convert results from coastal modeling efforts into MIKE s format for use as boundary cond. in the canal network and overland component. Hydroperiod from Microtopo: Maximum water depth maps at a higher resolution than MIKE SHE Grid. The BC model is 500-ft grid, but grid-based topographic data sets are usually with grids as small as 5-feet.

18 18 6. Unique tools and utilities that we intends to apply in this project MODFLOW Res To dfs: Converts MODFLOW result files to dfs2 and dfs3 files formats

19 19 7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform about the project Technical CRS Public Outreach Coordinate with 1. Identify stakeholders 2. Communication outreach tools 3. Organize and Coordinate meetings and Public forums

20 20 7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform about the project Community Outreach Tools Stakeholders

21 21 7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform about the project Technical Stakeholders meetings in coordination with water control districts, professional organizations, business and developing industries. South and Central Broward, coordinate with SBDD and CBWCD North Broward, coordinate with OPWCD, NSID, CSID, Cocomar and Broward County Coastal Broward, coordinate with Fort Lauderdale, Hollywood, Dania Beach, Hallandale Beach, Pompano Beach and Deerfield Beach

22 22 7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform about the project CRS Development of Program for Public Information (PPI) Strategic utilization of this CRS outreach could earn a total of 495 points: 350 points in CRS Activity 330 Public Outreach 100 points in CRS Activity 370 Flood Insurance Promotion 45 points in other CRS Activities Each class within the CRS program is separated from the next higher class by 500 points. Team member CRS Max Consultants has proven success with developments of PPIs (9 in South Florida alone). Additional points resulting from Lago team efforts may be earned in other CRS Activities, including: Activity 320 Map Information Service Activity 410 Flood Hazard Mapping Activity 430 Higher Regulatory Standards Activity 440 Flood Data Maintenance Activity 450 Stormwater Management Activity 530 Flood Protection Activity 540 Drainage System Maintenance Activity 610 Flood Warning and Response

23 23 7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform about the project CRS (Cont.) LAGO Team has proven success in working together with local communities to improve their respective CRS classifications. South Florida communities improved within the past 6 years: Collier County (Class 6 Class 5) Palm Beach County (Class 6 Class 5) City of Boynton Beach (Class 7 Class 6) Town of Jupiter (Class 6 Class 5) Town of Surfside (Class 10 Class 8) Village of Tequesta (Class 8 Class 7) Village of Wellington (Class 7 Class 6)

24 24 7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform about the project Public Outreach Presentations to professional organizations Public forums with Water Control Districts and utilities Presentations to business stakeholders and insurance companies Meetings with developers Meetings with local organizations

25 25 Conclusions: Why LAGO? Matchless MIKE SHE/MIKE11 Modeling Experts. Well versed on the MIKE s suite, its algorithms, solvers and troubleshooting, etc. Authors of original Broward MIKE SHE/MIKE11 Model. Current Broward Model/Input data pre-evaluated by LAGO. Masters on data mining, management and analysis. Local experts. Unique set of pre- & post processing (user friendly) tools & well established reputation for developing Tools/Utilities as needed. Exclusive expertise in export/import from other model platforms. Ex:. Utility needed for MODFLOW developed & tested. Proven Local Leadership in Predicting Non Stationary IDF curves. Code in R already developed and tested. Unmatched Skills in Community Rating Systems (CRS) Improvement Exceptional Range of Public Involvement Experience in Broward Questions?